Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 59, including 4 sun flights

Today’s cancellation count: 0

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Normal Laurentian superiority I'm guessing. What do those country bumpkins in Calgary know about traveling anyway?

I mean there has to be a balance. While some people on here love to talk up other city’s feasibility and justification of air service, those same people also love to do the opposite for YOW. Apparently YOW does not deserve such service, but a city like Calgary being a global hub to 2 major airlines is totally alright and makes sense even though YVR is an hour and a half away. But God forbid someone here says we need a route to SFO then it’s automatically “are you crazy, YOW can’t sustain that”, “Who wants to connect here?”, “nope no demand”, “Porter can’t do that here”, “YOW isn’t worth hubbing in, too small even though Calgary is the same size” as if we’re getting jumped by AC and WS themselves.

[Truenorth00]

^ Balance for the sake of balance?

Discussion should be informed. A lot of the discussion here boils down to, "They have it. Why can't we?" Except this isn't how the market for air services work. Context matters. Not just population size.

And look at the context you're ignoring. Montreal is 1.5 hrs by car from Ottawa. Vancouver is 1.5 hrs by air from Calgary. Pretending that's the same thing. Really?

Also, no amount of whining will get airlines here. Build the market to justify it. Calgary has a booming economy with a lot of corporate travel and some of the highest disposable incomes in the country. Ottawa has public servants who won't even get premium economy paid for and won't pay for it themselves. The airlines fighting for Calgary over Ottawa makes perfect sense to me.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ Balance for the sake of balance?

Discussion should be informed. A lot of the discussion here boils down to, "They have it. Why can't we?" Except this isn't how the market for air services work. Context matters. Not just population size.

And look at the context you're ignoring. Montreal is 1.5 hrs by car from Ottawa. Vancouver is 1.5 hrs by air from Calgary. Pretending that's the same thing. Really?

Also, no amount of whining will get airlines here. Build the market to justify it. Calgary has a booming economy with a lot of corporate travel and some of the highest disposable incomes in the country. Ottawa has public servants who won't even get premium economy paid for and won't pay for it themselves. The airlines fighting for Calgary over Ottawa makes perfect sense to me.

Agree to disagree. You keep talking down YOW and throwing insults in your “informed” discussions all you want, it’s not how I see it. My thinking goes directly towards competition when I see more and more airlines setting up hubs/bases in one place, network or no network, there’s something called saturation. Just because a carrier hasn’t hubbed in YOW yet doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Don’t agree? You don’t have to.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Agree to disagree. You keep talking down YOW and throwing insults in your “informed” discussions all you want, it’s not how I see it. My thinking goes directly towards competition when I see more and more airlines setting up hubs/bases in one place, network or no network, there’s something called saturation. Just because a carrier hasn’t hubbed in YOW yet doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Don’t agree? You don’t have to.

There's plenty of cities around the world of our size. Most don't have a medium sized airline hub with international long haul, like Calgary. Why do you think that is?

You can keep complaining these airline execs have some secret conspiracy against Ottawa. I prefer to acknowledge reality. We have a poor local market and the tyranny of geography working against us. Heck, even Porter is refusing to put the majority of their eggs here. They actually want to enter the snake pit at YYZ.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's plenty of cities around the world of our size. Most don't have a medium sized airline hub with international long haul, like Calgary. Why do you think that is?

You can keep complaining these airline execs have some secret conspiracy against Ottawa. I prefer to acknowledge reality. We have a poor local market and the tyranny of geography working against us. Heck, even Porter is refusing to put the majority of their eggs here. They actually want to enter the snake pit at YYZ.

There seems to be a small misunderstanding. I understand why carriers in Canada have made the decision they have made thus far. But that doesn’t mean I don’t think YOW is deserving of more. Plus unless you actually work in Porter’s networking team, no one knows what they are planning for YOW. Numbers, logic, stats, and what carriers have done historically plays a big part in decision making but a small chunk of their decision making is risk tolerance, airport relations, vision of the community. Carriers have varying degrees of those things as well which is why some are more successful at route planning than others, and sometimes the experimental ones work. So I would suggest before knocking off Porter as unsuccessful if they hub in YOW, I would give them a chance first and give it a couple years. They haven’t even lifted off the ground yet.

[Truenorth00]

Nobody is suggesting that Porter will be unsuccessful if they hub in Ottawa. I have explained why they might be making some of these apparent choices. They are clearly choosing to go to head to head against the majors in several major markets. Their focus on Ottawa doesn't appear to be nearly what you seem to imagine they are building:



50 airplanes sounds like a lot. Until you spread them across 4 hubs. Then? Not so much for each hub.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Nobody is suggesting that Porter will be unsuccessful if they hub in Ottawa. I have explained why they might be making some of these apparent choices. They are clearly choosing to go to head to head against the majors in several major markets. Their focus on Ottawa doesn't appear to be nearly what you seem to imagine they are building:

I’m not unrealistic to the point where I’m hoping for a major international hub. I’ve pretty much memorized this map. I would be extremely happy for some direct South-West US destinations with Porter (on top of the Canadian destinations) with a US carrier code share agreement and just one major non-Star Alliance European carrier to their hub. If we can get that it would be a major win.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's plenty of cities around the world of our size. Most don't have a medium sized airline hub with international long haul, like Calgary. Why do you think that is?

You can keep complaining these airline execs have some secret conspiracy against Ottawa. I prefer to acknowledge reality. We have a poor local market and the tyranny of geography working against us. Heck, even Porter is refusing to put the majority of their eggs here. They actually ta want to enter the snake pit at YYZ.

Have a read of this article ….Calgary will now have Tokyo, Rome, Ireland, UK and Spain as regular international routes … are you suggesting that YOW’s lack of even a single transatlantic route is justified? … time for Ottawa Tourism, the province and the city to put up subsidy dollars … impossible for the private sector (tech sector) to bring customers to visit with current state of affairs… we have half the HQs we did in 2001… when we had more direct flights …Calgary’s economy will continue to attract new employers with this sort of international connectivity … folks forget that YOW had up to 41 x u.s direct flights per day in the 2000’s which shrunk to just 19 pre-pandemic and much less post pandemic… 10 maybe? historically we have had a number of international routes: Amsterdam (klm) on a 747, Paris (air transaat), LHR and Gatwick (multiple airlines most notably AC 767), and Frankfurt (Lufthansa was to assume this from AC pre-pandemic on a A-340). BS that we can’t support the routes …build it and they will come … I hope Porter teaches them all a lesson and that we give them enough support to ditch the Aeroplan point loyalty program… sign me up.

https://ottawacitizen.com/business/local...n9kAq43vGONnQnBvO1tbc#Echobox=1670267184

[Truenorth00]

^ You literally point out that the city has half the HQs as 2001 and then expect the same level of service? When one airline after another drops long haul service to Ottawa, at what point do you say maybe it's the market and not the airlines?

As for Porter teaching anybody a lesson, just a reminder that 50 E195-E2s, is still 19% fewer seats 56% fewer aircraft than Air Canada Express. We're not even counting mainline or Rouge. This isn't nearly the threat people imagine it is. And they are going to spread it across four hubs. Maybe, if we're lucky, Ottawa gets 20 of the 50 frames. But given their desire to compete in Pearson, Montreal and Halifax, it's increasingly looking like we might get maybe 10 frames based in Ottawa. Prepare to be disappointed.

I honestly wish Porter was more Ottawa focused. But they are clearly saying they are not. Even their launch service for the jungle jets is from Pearson.

[YOWflier]

“Half the HQs”. Need data.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ You literally point out that the city has half the HQs as 2001 and then expect the same level of service? When one airline after another drops long haul service to Ottawa, at what point do you say maybe it's the market and not the airlines?

As for Porter teaching anybody a lesson, just a reminder that 50 E195-E2s, is still 19% fewer seats 56% fewer aircraft than Air Canada Express. We're not even counting mainline or Rouge. This isn't nearly the threat people imagine it is. And they are going to spread it across four hubs. Maybe, if we're lucky, Ottawa gets 20 of the 50 frames. But given their desire to compete in Pearson, Montreal and Halifax, it's increasingly looking like we might get maybe 10 frames based in Ottawa. Prepare to be disappointed.

I honestly wish Porter was more Ottawa focused. But they are clearly saying they are not. Even their launch service for the jungle jets is from Pearson.

You maybe right but the situation really does suck for the private sector in Ottawa … if we want to attract new employers to town … airline route connectivity is critical. Subsidizing routes to enable new routes and make the viable for a couple of yrs to give them a fair shot would be a good move…

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

When one airline after another drops long haul service to Ottawa, at what point do you say maybe it's the market and not the airlines?

Pretty disingenuous here. Pre-COVID the long haul track record was very stable and trending in the right direction. It took a once in a lifetime pandemic to disrupt it.

One airline after another dropping long haul service is only accurate if you ignore the fact that pretty much all of them ceased operations. Zoom, Canada 3000, Thomas Cook…

KLM was ~30 years ago, so weird reference. The only real “loss” from a carrier still operating has been TS to CDG, what, 10-15 years ago? And 1x-weekly was it?

The market is fine. It’s not our time yet in the COVID recovery. It will come.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

“Half the HQs”. Need data.

Just look at number of publicly traded companies now vs then… quick comparison off top of my head …

Today’s publicly traded HQs (not counting micro caps nor OTX traded companies)
————
Kinaxis
Shopify
Calian
Minto
Inter rent
Hexo
Canopy growth
Telesat

Publicly traded HQs lost, acquired, privatized or no longer around
——————-
Jds uniphase
Newbridge
Mitel
Corel
Jetform
Fulcrum
Mosaid
Wi-lan
Gandalf
Plaintree
Cognos
SHL systemhouse
Digital computers
Dragon wave
Halogen software
Zarlink Semi
Mds nordion
Istat
Entrust
World heart
Chrysalis ITS
Espial

On the bright side I can see a number of potential new IPOs in the coming years …that may help ..
Ross video
Solace
Solink
Full scripts
Go-for
Rewind
Accent compliance
Gan Systems
Giant tiger
Lee valley

[YOWflier]

An impact to travel would certainly be seen in cases where there was a net reduction in labour force (jobs vanished). But that’s not really the case here; a lot those were M&A (Newbridge->Alcatel->Nokia. Cognos->IBM. EMS Satcom->Honeywell? etc.). Much harder to demonstrate any material change in travel. The airport traffic grew substantially over that period (until COVID).

Anyway, things suck right now but it won’t be like this forever. Not our time yet.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

An impact to travel would certainly be seen in cases where there was a net reduction in labour force (jobs vanished). But that’s not really the case here; a lot those were M&A (Newbridge->Alcatel->Nokia. Cognos->IBM. EMS Satcom->Honeywell? etc.). Much harder to demonstrate any material change in travel. The airport traffic grew substantially over that period (until COVID).

Anyway, things suck right now but it won’t be like this forever. Not our time yet.

Speaking of suck, the local news tonight just had a brief feature about AC's sucktacular (TM ) levels of service coming for YOW's summer 2023 season.

Thursday's departure count: 66, including 3 sun flights

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Also, are people forgetting that Air Canada did a daily Calgary Tokyo flight for a decade before the pandemic? It was daily too.

Calgary also had a Beijing flight before the pandemic on a Chinese carrier.

Not sure why the other person thought WestJet would struggle, they will be able to fill the planes just based on previous routes out of Calgary.

Yes agree. WestJet will be able to fill its flights at its main hub in Calgary YYC as they have large network of Domestic Canada,US & along with leisurely sun destinations flights :like Mexico.

The WestJet new routes for Summer 2023 to Barcelona Spain & Edinburgh Scotland, Europe/ along with Tokyo Japan, Asia will do okay from YYC & it will bring in more Tourists to Alberta. As Alberta government, Tourism/Travel Alberta, Tourism Calgary & Calgary YYC airport are all doing a good job of marketing/ promoting it,which will help it out!!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by sgera

You maybe right but the situation really does suck for the private sector in Ottawa … if we want to attract new employers to town … airline route connectivity is critical. Subsidizing routes to enable new routes and make the viable for a couple of yrs to give them a fair shot would be a good move…

I have doubts that airline connectivity is the only thing holding back new employers. Seems very superficial to say a 1 hr flight and 2 hr transfer is the line on where they locate.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

An impact to travel would certainly be seen in cases where there was a net reduction in labour force (jobs vanished). But that’s not really the case here; a lot those were M&A (Newbridge->Alcatel->Nokia. Cognos->IBM. EMS Satcom->Honeywell? etc.). Much harder to demonstrate any material change in travel. The airport traffic grew substantially over that period (until COVID).

Anyway, things suck right now but it won’t be like this forever. Not our time yet.

Losing corporate HQs in replacement of r&d branch plants is not the same thing when it come air travel. Tech employment (depending on who’s numbers one uses - stats Canada, cbre, invest Ottawa) has never eclipsed the peaks of the early 2000s… travel is driven by HQ corporate jobs and less by r&d centric operations.

Calgary now has the second most HQs in the country surpassing Montreal - that’s outstanding… it isn’t by accident. They have made the right investments and moves. Ottawa needs more swagger and needs to market itself more aggressively … it’s in our culture to accept mediocrity and bureaucracy … perhaps Edmonton is the better comparison for us …. But they do a far better job in airline PAX too despite being close in proximity to a hub airport being Calgary.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I have doubts that airline connectivity is the only thing holding back new employers. Seems very superficial to say a 1 hr flight and 2 hr transfer is the line on where they locate.

I’m 2006 pre-bankruptcy, Nortel was moving corporate HQ from Brampton to Ottawa… it was on the front page of the Citizen. They abandoned the plan at the last minute … the corporate execs refused to move here because of our airport connectivity.

As a proud Ottawa tech executive I can tell you that a two hop vs direct flight is a big deal as it’s up to 4 hrs each trip… if you are on a plane for 50% of a month… it matters …Time is a scarce resource … any major city with a strong HQs showing has flights