Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Free market at play. That's how much you have to pay AC for a direct. They'd rather you connect through YYZ where they will have multiple departures to MCO.

We are in a smaller market. There will be less competition. We can have more directs. Or lower fares. Both is difficult. And when Porter shows up, you'll get to see some of this. 1-3 directs per day to places like Orlando. Fares still more expensive than connecting with AC and substantially higher than directs from Montreal and Toronto. I look forward to the whining when this inevitably happens.

This is not a free market. We have a private market, but aviation is one of the most regulated and government controlled private markets out there.

A free market would allow an Irish firm like Ryan Air fly between Ottawa and Orlando for example. Which is very illegal.
Aviation is a private, heavily regulated market.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Free market at play. That's how much you have to pay AC for a direct. They'd rather you connect through YYZ where they will have multiple departures to MCO.

We are in a smaller market. There will be less competition. We can have more directs. Or lower fares. Both is difficult. And when Porter shows up, you'll get to see some of this. 1-3 directs per day to places like Orlando. Fares still more expensive than connecting with AC and substantially higher than directs from Montreal and Toronto. I look forward to the whining when this inevitably happens.

The irony is I think more people are willing to pay a premium for the direct flight now. Before the pandemic I didn’t think twice about a Toronto or Montreal transfer. Now I dread it with the ever increasing hassles.

I hope Westjet comes in with a Europe flight.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I hope Westjet comes in with a Europe flight.

Zero chance of that. They don't have the aircraft.

But Air Canada has 30 XLRs on order. I expect a good chunk of those will land in Ottawa to fend off similar moves from Europeans. Kinda wish that Porter had gone for that play too.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Zero chance of that. They don't have the aircraft.

But Air Canada has 30 XLRs on order. I expect a good chunk of those will land in Ottawa to fend off similar moves from Europeans. Kinda wish that Porter had gone for that play too.

a "good chunk" seems wildly optimistic.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

a "good chunk" seems wildly optimistic.

Fair. A chunk then?

The aircraft is capable. But really, it's only useful for Transatlantic for Air Canada. And arguably most useful at non-hub cities. I think at least half of the XLRs they've bought are going to YOW, YQB and YHZ.

An interesting move that kneecaps Porter's ability to grow into longhaul, even if they succeed at domestic flights.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Fair. A chunk then?

The aircraft is capable. But really, it's only useful for Transatlantic for Air Canada. And arguably most useful at non-hub cities. I think at least half of the XLRs they've bought are going to YOW, YQB and YHZ.

An interesting move that kneecaps Porter's ability to grow into longhaul, even if they succeed at domestic flights.

That's wildly optimistic I'd say. If the equivalent of 7 were used from these 3 markets, that would still be on the high side and that would include using them on some YOW-YVR transcons. Like any other AC aircraft they'll rotate throughout the system. A lot of them will be used for YYZ/YUL-secondary Europe and to reinstate the remaining former Rouge 767 transatlantic routes. With the way AC's heading, I wouldn't be surprised for YOW-LHR, let alone FRA to only return after a dozen or more of them are on property, or not at all even with the way things are going...that's ultra pessimistic though and not likely. The Airport Authority must already have some indication though from AC that those will return eventually given how the CEO has more than once talked about the 'XLR being perfect for a market the size of YOW'.

Today’s departure count: 57, including 4 sun flights

Today’s cancellation count: 0

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Zero chance of that. They don't have the aircraft.

But Air Canada has 30 XLRs on order. I expect a good chunk of those will land in Ottawa to fend off similar moves from Europeans. Kinda wish that Porter had gone for that play too.

It's weird that they can find planes for routes like Calgary-Barcelona but not for Ottawa-Gatwick. I guess there are code share issues.

[phil235]

Article behind the Globe paywall on Porter's expansion:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-porter-airlines-north-america-expansion-pearson/

There is a lot of discussion of the new jets being based at Pearson and competing with AC and WS, but nothing at all about Ottawa.

[BenYOW]

Originally Posted by phil235

Article behind the Globe paywall on Porter's expansion:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-porter-airlines-north-america-expansion-pearson/

There is a lot of discussion of the new jets being based at Pearson and competing with AC and WS, but nothing at all about Ottawa.

Pax News has also published a story on Porter's expansion today, with the following tidbit:

Porter is the North American launch customer for Embraer's E195-E2, providing the ability to operate throughout North America, including to the west coast, southern U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean.

The aircraft will initially be deployed from Toronto Pearson International Airport, with Halifax, Montreal and Ottawa also seeing new service with the E195-E2 over time.

The first of up to 100 new aircraft are scheduled to be delivered to Porter this year and initial routes will be announced in December.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It's weird that they can find planes for routes like Calgary-Barcelona but not for Ottawa-Gatwick. I guess there are code share issues.

I don't think this is an aircraft availability problem per se. I think they just don't want to open a new base at Gatwick. That would be expensive, if all they are running is one flight a day from Ottawa. They could in theory run some from other non-hub cities. But this would all be dependent on origin-destination traffic, with not much connection opportunities unlike the other Star Alliance partners at Heathrow. So all they'd end up doing is eroding business on their hub flights to LHR.

That said, the XLR with ~182 seats is literally built for this kind of mission. In theory, they could run dailies or even double dailies from Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Quebec City and Halifax to Gatwick, and keep Heathrow flights for Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary, with the goal of getting those to 2-3x daily. The XLR is also perfect to give this second tier of cities direct service to LH Group hubs (FRA, MUC, ZRH, BRU and VIE) and direct service to competitor alliance hubs at CDG, AMS and BCN. I expect, AC will deploy the XLR from YOW to at least London, Paris and Frankfurt once they've taken full delivery of the XLR order.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It's weird that they can find planes for routes like Calgary-Barcelona but not for Ottawa-Gatwick. I guess there are code share issues.

Not so much weird as not trying to have much of a presence in the east anymore. WS will still be at LGW, but only from the west and all indications are, only from YYC even if YVR-LGW is still loaded. If they keep YVR, they need to reduce frequencies, otherwise they don't have enough capacity with the 40 weekly YYC 789 departures already baked in.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Not so much weird as not trying to have much of a presence in the east anymore. WS will still be at LGW, but only from the west and all indications are, only from YYC even if YVR-LGW is still loaded. If they keep YVR, they need to reduce frequencies, otherwise they don't have enough capacity with the 40 weekly YYC 789 departures already baked in.

It's incredible to me that WS is able to even fill their flights to European and upcoming Asian destinations with their operations in the west. The total population of BC, AB, and SK together is around 11 million whereas the YUL-YOW-YYZ corridor alone is not even close to being that low. Also AC being present in both YVR and YYC. I also can't imaging a massive amount of TB traffic connecting with WS in YYC when they have their own major carriers down there with more destinations. But hey they seem to be doing it if they're already underway with moving more to the West.

In terms of AC's XLRs, I think they'll use them from YOW to LHR, FRA and CDG. I hope more though. Places like Edmonton and Calgary are too far from anything more than LHR and similarly distant European cities. I also read somewhere that the elevations of YEG and YYC decreases aircraft performance? Someone else can confirm that if you know. Aside from AC's existing hubs to lower demand European destinations, YOW truly is perfect for them. Here's to AC's excuses for not operating much flights to Europe because the "low demand does not justify a wide body". It's time for them to put their money where their mouth is. If they don't then they're clearly hypocrites who just want to continue catering to their hubs with connecting traffic.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

It's incredible to me that WS is able to even fill their flights to European and upcoming Asian destinations with their operations in the west. The total population of BC, AB, and SK together is around 11 million whereas the YUL-YOW-YYZ corridor alone is not even close to being that low. Also AC being present in both YVR and YYC. I also can't imaging a massive amount of TB traffic connecting with WS in YYC when they have their own major carriers down there with more destinations. But hey they seem to be doing it if they're already underway with moving more to the West.

11 million is more people than Sweden has.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by acottawa

11 million is more people than Sweden has.

I guess but I'm comparing it to the East. I know there's too much competition in the East, but AC also hubs in YVR and YYC so it still makes me think.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Fair. A chunk then?

The aircraft is capable. But really, it's only useful for Transatlantic for Air Canada. And arguably most useful at non-hub cities. I think at least half of the XLRs they've bought are going to YOW, YQB and YHZ.

An interesting move that kneecaps Porter's ability to grow into longhaul, even if they succeed at domestic flights.

As others said this seems wildly optimistic. I think we forget the hub to non hub routes can be Toronto to secondary European destinations. Ottawa to Frankfurt is convenient but most of that is destined for elsewhere in Europe and the only one stop options are through the US so there isn't competition whereas Toronto Zagreb or Lisbon or Casablanca Montreal for example are being stolen away by non-star alliance competitors.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

It's incredible to me that WS is able to even fill their flights to European and upcoming Asian destinations with their operations in the west. The total population of BC, AB, and SK together is around 11 million whereas the YUL-YOW-YYZ corridor alone is not even close to being that low. Also AC being present in both YVR and YYC. I also can't imaging a massive amount of TB traffic connecting with WS in YYC when they have their own major carriers down there with more destinations. But hey they seem to be doing it if they're already underway with moving more to the West.

11M is not some small amount. That's just over a quarter of the country. And their main hub (YYC) is also in a part of the country with very high disposable income and a major industry (O&G) that requires strong foreign ties.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

In terms of AC's XLRs, I think they'll use them from YOW to LHR, FRA and CDG. I hope more though. Places like Edmonton and Calgary are too far from anything more than LHR and similarly distant European cities. I also read somewhere that the elevations of YEG and YYC decreases aircraft performance? Someone else can confirm that if you know. Aside from AC's existing hubs to lower demand European destinations, YOW truly is perfect for them. Here's to AC's excuses for not operating much flights to Europe because the "low demand does not justify a wide body". It's time for them to put their money where their mouth is. If they don't then they're clearly hypocrites who just want to continue catering to their hubs with connecting traffic.

It's not just aircraft size. The XLR helps there. But it doesn't solve other issues, like slots or yield.
Hypothetical example. AC gets a new daily slot pair at Heathrow. Do they use it for Ottawa or adding service at their hubs? What will determine their decision is whether Ottawa can generate the more profit from a 182 seat XLR as a 400+ seat 777 would from a hub. The XLR gives them options. But the market still has to be favourable. Personally, I hope they look at Gatwick and use the XLR to open direct service from a number of cities in Canada there. Better than holding on for slots at Heathrow.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

As others said this seems wildly optimistic. I think we forget the hub to non hub routes can be Toronto to secondary European destinations. Ottawa to Frankfurt is convenient but most of that is destined for elsewhere in Europe and the only one stop options are through the US so there isn't competition whereas Toronto Zagreb or Lisbon or Casablanca Montreal for example are being stolen away by non-star alliance competitors.

You're right. They can deploy a lot of that fleet on long thin routes from their hubs. But the flip side here is that they leave cities like Ottawa open to competition. If they don't deploy the XLR from Ottawa/Quebec City/Halifax/Winnipeg to Europe, they run the risk of AFKL or IAG or somebody like Finnair ordering XLRs and picking off this traffic. They'll have to at least play some defence here. Flights to some combination of London, Paris and some LH group hub from these cities, is enough to ward off most competition in these cities. They'll do some of this. I don't think Ottawa will see widebody transatlantic again for a while.

[Tesladom]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It's weird that they can find planes for routes like Calgary-Barcelona but not for Ottawa-Gatwick. I guess there are code share issues.

I wonder what is the % of direction of travel? How many people from around Barcelona fly to Calgary vs Calgary to Barcelona? I suspect amore people using YOW are outbound, but many Europeans flock to the Rockies (summer and winter)

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Tesladom

I wonder what is the % of direction of travel? How many people from around Barcelona fly to Calgary vs Calgary to Barcelona? I suspect amore people using YOW are outbound, but many Europeans flock to the Rockies (summer and winter)

Barcelona is all outbound I imagine. Sure German traffic is more mixed but not Barcelona.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

11M is not some small amount. That's just over a quarter of the country. And their main hub (YYC) is also in a part of the country with very high disposable income and a major industry (O&G) that requires strong foreign ties.



It's not just aircraft size. The XLR helps there. But it doesn't solve other issues, like slots or yield.
Hypothetical example. AC gets a new daily slot pair at Heathrow. Do they use it for Ottawa or adding service at their hubs? What will determine their decision is whether Ottawa can generate the more profit from a 182 seat XLR as a 400+ seat 777 would from a hub. The XLR gives them options. But the market still has to be favourable. Personally, I hope they look at Gatwick and use the XLR to open direct service from a number of cities in Canada there. Better than holding on for slots at Heathrow.



You're right. They can deploy a lot of that fleet on long thin routes from their hubs. But the flip side here is that they leave cities like Ottawa open to competition. If they don't deploy the XLR from Ottawa/Quebec City/Halifax/Winnipeg to Europe, they run the risk of AFKL or IAG or somebody like Finnair ordering XLRs and picking off this traffic. They'll have to at least play some defence here. Flights to some combination of London, Paris and some LH group hub from these cities, is enough to ward off most competition in these cities. They'll do some of this. I don't think Ottawa will see widebody transatlantic again for a while.

Also, are people forgetting that Air Canada did a daily Calgary Tokyo flight for a decade before the pandemic? It was daily too.

Calgary also had a Beijing flight before the pandemic on a Chinese carrier.

Not sure why the other person thought WestJet would struggle, they will be able to fill the planes just based on previous routes out of Calgary.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Also, are people forgetting that Air Canada did a daily Calgary Tokyo flight for a decade before the pandemic? It was daily too.

Calgary also had a Beijing flight before the pandemic on a Chinese carrier.

Not sure why the other person thought WestJet would struggle, they will be able to fill the planes just based on previous routes out of Calgary.

Normal Laurentian superiority I'm guessing. What do those country bumpkins in Calgary know about traveling anyway?