The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Fredericton will be an island for the foreseeable future. Base Gagetown, and the long nothingness enroute to Moncton is not conducive to future growth. You can however clearly see Moncton and Saint John reaching for one another, and there are plenty of towns between the two that have potential to grow. If Sussex were to boom (for whatever reason) there would be a sister city complex between Moncton and SJ, but can't see Freddy really getting in on the fun unless there was massive and unprecedented growth in.... Fredericton Junction to Welsford?

A lot of the Fredericton growth isn't in the direction of SJ/Moncton but rather the opposite direction - Hanwell, Northside, etc. There's been some growth in Waasis and Oromocto continues to grow but between CFB Gagetown and Grand Lake there's a big hurdle into reaching the other two, to say nothing of the lack of settlements once those two are jumped. The Saint John-Moncton corridor is littered with smaller towns ripe for growth; Sussex the most obvious but also Salisbury, Petitcodiac, and Hampton.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by JHikka

A lot of the Fredericton growth isn't in the direction of SJ/Moncton but rather the opposite direction - Hanwell, Northside, etc. There's been some growth in Waasis and Oromocto continues to grow but between CFB Gagetown and Grand Lake there's a big hurdle into reaching the other two, to say nothing of the lack of settlements once those two are jumped. The Saint John-Moncton corridor is littered with smaller towns ripe for growth; Sussex the most obvious but also Salisbury, Petitcodiac, and Hampton.

Totally agree. There are just not enough reasons to think that Freddy will be joining a three pronged mega metropolis in southern NB in the near future. The SJ-Moncton corridor does have much more potential to be a continuous urban(ish) area some day.

2021 CMA stats, so a bit dated for all the growth in the three cities but....

Fredericton - 108,610
Saint John - 130,613
Moncton - 157,717

Total - 396,940

[adamuptownsj]

2016-2021 growth between Moncton and Saint John:

Hampton: no change
Parish: 6% growth

Norton: no change
Parish: no change

Sussex: 4%
Sussex Corner: no change
Parish: 3%
Studholm Parish: no change

Salisbury: 4.5%
Parish: no change
Petitcodiac: 7%

These aren't terrible numbers for small towns on the east coast at all. None of the places I labeled 'no change' moved more than 20 people in either direction.

Sussex seems like the most likely place to grow. I think it's the highest median income of any of these localities, is a little less drive-through than the others, it has a strong captive agricultural industry, potash could come back. It's also the only municipality that is an economic entity of its own; there's likely VERY few Sussex-SJ or Sussex-Moncton commuters.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

2016-2021 growth between Moncton and Saint John:

Hampton: no change
Parish: 6% growth

Norton: no change
Parish: no change

Sussex: 4%
Sussex Corner: no change
Parish: 3%
Studholm Parish: no change

Salisbury: 4.5%
Parish: no change
Petitcodiac: 7%

These aren't terrible numbers for small towns on the east coast at all. None of the places I labeled 'no change' moved more than 20 people in either direction.

Sussex seems like the most likely place to grow. I think it's the highest median income of any of these localities, is a little less drive-through than the others, it has a strong captive agricultural industry, potash could come back. It's also the only municipality that is an economic entity of its own; there's likely VERY few Sussex-SJ or Sussex-Moncton commuters.

I once was a Sussex-Moncton commuter, and I know several people who commuted go Quispamsis from Sussex for work, so it might happen more than you think, but in general I think that you’re right.

[adamuptownsj]

Yeah I used to work with a woman who commuted from Lincoln to Saint John. There's some of you crazies out there lol, but afaik once you get past Norton the percentage of commuters drops a lot.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Yeah I used to work with a woman who commuted from Lincoln to Saint John. There's some of you crazies out there lol, but afaik once you get past Norton the percentage of commuters drops a lot.

I only commuted for 3 months until I moved. I wasn’t really interested in moving in the winter lol.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Yeah I used to work with a woman who commuted from Lincoln to Saint John. There's some of you crazies out there lol, but afaik once you get past Norton the percentage of commuters drops a lot.

I know they have a bad reputation these days but if someone moves to NB from Ontario then the commute from Lincoln to Saint John really isn't all that bad. It's nowhere near as bad as commutes in the GTA. I recall hearing about people who commuted from Fredericton to Saint John for work years ago and they were mostly from Ontario originally.

At one point I was pretty confident that I could drive Saint John-Moncton blindfolded I drove it so much.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I know they have a bad reputation these days but if someone moves to NB from Ontario then the commute from Lincoln to Saint John really isn't all that bad. It's nowhere near as bad as commutes in the GTA. I recall hearing about people who commuted from Fredericton to Saint John for work years ago and they were mostly from Ontario originally.

At one point I was pretty confident that I could drive Saint John-Moncton blindfolded I drove it so much.

Yeah Maritimers, myself included, have a commuting complex. Every single west sider has adopted their own work schedule to avoid 15 minutes of slow traffic on the bridge. Going between any of the three cities is a 'trip'. Etc. My commute is a 10 minute walk and it used to be 6 before I moved, which still bugs me three years later.

[adamuptownsj]

I was looking at the new municipalities around Saint John and am truly stumped by some decisions. I've generally been uncritical of the process and outcomes, but what's with these?

Why did Rothesay Parish (upper Golden Grove/Hunter Lake area) not end up in either Rothesay or Saint John? It's in the 'rural district' but it's basically just an exurban subdivision (of either SJ or Rothesay). Fundy St Martins has a functional exclave to its south too. Both of these should be in Rothesay, the expanded Hampton, or SJ (as much as I think the city's big enough already).

Mispec was originally supposed to be part of Fundy St Martins, despite lacking a road connection. Should be part of Saint John too. Is its exclusion related to the pile of rural land purchases in the area in recent years, ostensibly for gold exploration, or for something else?

Lastly, Sussex should have absorbed more of the Kings rural district and Butternut Valley immediately around it.

Not major gripes, and most of the rural districts make sense, but ours should shed these areas. Same with the Acadian Peninsula, why do they even have a rural district when it's only Miscou and two pieces of rural land south of Rivière-du-Nord?

[Joe]

New Brunswick on the verge of hitting 820,000 after hitting 800,000 on March 25 of this year. Currently at 819,998

[Joe]

Originally Posted by Joe

New Brunswick on the verge of hitting 820,000 after hitting 800,000 on March 25 of this year. Currently at 819,998

Just hit 820,000!

[KnoxfordGuy]

Insane. Absolutely Insane.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Joe

Just hit 820,000!

900,000 by early 2026?

1,000,000 by 2030????

Crazy talk even five years ago, but, now this seems distinctly probable.

[Nashe]

That's wild. I know that statscan site are just modelled projections, but still. I wonder how long that growth can hold, though? I would have thought that it'd already peaked, but maybe I was wrong!
I guess judging by the amount of multi-unit going up in Moncton right now, it is still happening, and projected to continue.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Nashe

That's wild. I know that statscan site are just modelled projections, but still. I wonder how long that growth can hold, though? I would have thought that it'd already peaked, but maybe I was wrong!
I guess judging by the amount of multi-unit going up in Moncton right now, it is still happening, and projected to continue.

The three main cities have every reason to keep growing and were before this influx. What is very encouraging is to see the secondary cities doing fairly well. It warms my heart to see Miramichi, Woodstock (a town I know), st Stephens all doing pretty well too.

In the past it seemed Moncton Freddy and SJ (at times) grew, but at the expense of smaller in-province communities. Intra-provincial movement and immigration have really helped prop up the smaller cities, and I could not be happier.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

900,000 by early 2026?

1,000,000 by 2030????

Crazy talk even five years ago, but, now this seems distinctly probable.

A New-Brunswick of over 1M people in just a decade would require major investments in infrastructure, healthcare and social services starting now. NB has been stagnant for most of living memory and I'm not sure the provincial government is taking this potential growth into serious enough consideration.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

A New-Brunswick of over 1M people in just a decade would require major investments in infrastructure, healthcare and social services starting now. NB has been stagnant for most of living memory and I'm not sure the provincial government is taking this potential growth into serious enough consideration.

Agree 10,000%

It's already happening. There was an article the other day noting that the Anglophone East School District had experienced an enrolment increase of 1,250 in just the last year, and that's just Westmorland/Albert/Kent, and doesn't take into account what's happening on the francophone side either. The schools don't have the capacity to absorb this on an ongoing basis.

Anglophone East had a pre-existing request (amongst others) for a new high school for Moncton North. Now they also want a combined middle/high school for Dieppe too. There are unquestionably other needs on both the anglophone and francophone sides that I am not aware of, but this is an example that I know about.

As you have said, there will be challenges in health care, social services and housing in addition to education, and I don't think Higgs knows what is coming down the pipe. Instead of just sitting on his $750M surpluses every year, the time has come to seriously consider important strategic infrastructure spending to get ahead of this demographic crisis.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Instead of just sitting on his $750M surpluses every year, the time has come to seriously consider important strategic infrastructure spending to get ahead of this demographic crisis.

This will require a new, less parsimonious, government.

[adamuptownsj]

We also have a gigantic pile of debt and crushingly uncompetitive taxes. We remain a have-not, low wage province with weak workforce participation, broadly subsidized by the west. We are not in the right place for pork barrel spending at all. Focus should be on getting debt per resident closer to $25K/resident instead of the $35K it is now. There's a global recession coming and we can't assume the good times will magically continue here.

[MonctonRad]

I am a conservative, and not one for profligate spending, but, if there is a strong likelihood of increasing the provincial population by 20-25% in less than 10 years, then it is self evident that money will need to be spent to service all these new people.

Schools will have to be built, and hospitals will have to be expanded.