Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Vin

I guess our BC government loves talking about fantasies too.

Looks like it. From the Daily Hive article - "there are no specifics at the moment on the timeline, routing, technology, and cost, as such a project is certainly in its planning infancy."

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Vin

Here's a good read from 2019's proposal:

You haven't read this thread have you? That 'proposal' (which was punted by the anti-Skytrain lobby) was already discussed a lot here, and all the problems with the cost, the route, the additional track necessary to make it work. And so did Translink. So it will be SkyTrain to Langley, using green electricity rather than hydrogen.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by Vin

I guess our BC government loves talking about fantasies too.

"But there are no specifics at the moment on the timeline, routing, technology, and cost, as such a project is certainly in its planning infancy."

As Changing said, there is no near to medium term plan.

i also think Abbotsford only say the line beginning at Surrey or Langley and not going any further west than that.

[Migrant_Coconut]

In addition:

However, previous studies conducted by both TransLink and the provincial government have deemed utilizing the Interurban as highly impractical given the cost, calculated benefits, excessive travel times, and conflicts with growing freight traffic.

The 2019 proposal was thoroughly debunked at the time, both here and elsewhere. Bottom line, when Bill Vander Zalm, Patrick Condon and/or Malcolm Johnston make a pitch for something, the wise choice would be to not do that thing.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

In other words, they ran out of room along the smaller highway, and started sprawling toward the bigger highway. You can clearly see both the old and new development is centred along the interchanges. Not the train stations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitby_GO_Station
For context, Whitby GO station has 3000 parking spots.
Three thousand parking spaces!
That is more than the WCE ridership.
If we assume that each car represents 1 rider, that means that about 3000 people ride this train a day. So, while the GO network has not created the density you crave, it sure has a way have high ridership.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

High density... low population. I’ve been pretty consistent on that. A BRT comes with its own separated bus lanes, so they won’t be stuck in traffic at all.

Is that the same as what we should expect for Abbotsford? Is that the same reserved lane the 99B rides in the entire route?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If you’re calling Maple Ridge or Abbotsford “vibrant neighbourhoods,” then you’ve just checkmated yourself. Wouldn’t hurt to at least have a lowrise village at Maple Meadows instead of cul-de-sacs and warehouses and a big Chrysler dealership, no?

Luckily, we can see Toronto transit mode share outright increasing to 37% by 7.7 points total over a ten-year period, and without any new RT projects. So there's fortunately no need to split hairs over 1% here or 100k there, we can clearly see that Mississauga and the others are far behind.

Maybe your version of vibrant isn't the same as other's versions.

As far as Mississauga, I was wrong. It does not have 2 stations. It has 10! Tell me how many parking spaces each of those stations have and you will see that the total is likely just like the Whitby GO - higher than the ridership of WCE.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

To be precise, it's 62km to Abbotsford (plot it out if you don't believe me) and 99km to Chilliwack. At $65m/km average, that’s $4.03 and $6.44 billion respectively, and you’d be lucky if you got anything beyond Class 3. Class 5 at $90m/km (GO's price) would be $5.58 billion to Abbotsford alone.

BRT from the Expo's Langley Station to Abbotsford? Same reach, much less money; Surrey was pegged at $770-900 million for both Newton-Guildford and Langley.

I have plotted it out along the CN line from Waterfront. Sounds like money well spent.

Originally Posted by Changing City

Let's see if we can finally rule out the idea of a commuter service by rail to White Rock.

Nope..... you are relying on the idea that transit use will not grow.

So, since the WCE has been open since the 1990s, what is the numbers of commuters for the last 25 years from White Rock to any of the cities along the line to Waterfront?

Originally Posted by Changing City

Recent evidence shows pages and pages of ignoring facts that inconveniently challenge the idea that adding more commuter rail is likely, or even appropriate in the Lower Mainland. I've commented that any discussion on adding more commuter rail in the near to medium future should be in the Fantasy thread. I think this thread should be about existing or actual proposals for heavy rail, commuter rail and intercity transportation.

Announcements about funding for investigations of the business case for high speed rail seem to fit here. Proposals by the rail company to twin the tracks in the Grandview Cut (or to drop that idea for now), fit here.

'Wouldn't it be a good idea if...' comments really don't seem to belong here, but apparently if you're bored you still like to fill the thread with comparisons to Ontario as if the history, available tracks, freight movements, population numbers and cash for transit investments are somehow comparable.

I can stop, and most times I do. But then our migrant nut decides to bash anything that is not Skytrain, and so down in the mud we go, showing him that Skytrain is not the universal answer.

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

With infinite public transit funds, Vancouver should have heavy rail links to Whistler, Squamish, Calgary, Kamloops, Abottsford, Vernon, Kelowna, and Penticton. Vancouver should also have HSR to Seattle and Portland. And while we're at it, Skytrain should be extended to the north shore and to White Rock, with at two new east/west lines and one new north/south line added to Vancouver itself.

But there are not infinite public transit funds, so the government must decide which projects will yield the greatest return. There are probably a dozen or so potential Skytrain lines within metro Vancouver that would yield higher ridership and take more cars off the road than rail to the valley. But not all of those lines will be built so rail to the valley won't be either.

I agree that this conversation should be moved to the fantasy thread, but that would require our friend Swimmer to acknowledge that these pet projects have no chance of being built, at least within the next 50 years.

Others have shown that it is not a fantasy, but a matter of when. A Fantasy would be a fixed link to the Island or HSR....oh wait, those are planned out too, but have yet to come to fruition.

Originally Posted by Vin

I guess our BC government loves talking about fantasies too. Authorities are actually talking about ADDING commuter rail to the current system.

This is why I keep pointing out that there are more than 1 way to serve people. Others are too narrow minded and want only Skytrains...

So, What Skytrain will go to Seattle? The Canada Line?

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As far as GO's massive parking, it is indeed a problem except in the city itself which has almost no parking lots. Metrolinx has spent a ridiculous amount on parking garages much to the furry of urbanists but there is a method in it's madness. The parking garages allow for much smaller parking footprints allowing the area to create higher density developments at the station which we are beginning to see as frequency improves, the trains are electrified and hence faster, and they are beginning to bring in widespread fair integration for all 905 areas.

If you build it - they will come.
If a WCE parking lot is full, it is time to expand it. The easier it is for someone to use a service, the better chance they will. It would not surprise me if half or more of the ridership for GO is from the people driving alone to the parking lots. Is that a bad thing?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitby_GO_Station
For context, Whitby GO station has 3000 parking spots.
Three thousand parking spaces!
That is more than the WCE ridership.
If we assume that each car represents 1 rider, that means that about 3000 people ride this train a day. So, while the GO network has not created the density you crave, it sure has a way have high ridership.

---

Is that the same as what we should expect for Abbotsford? Is that the same reserved lane the 99B rides in the entire route?

---

Maybe your version of vibrant isn't the same as other's versions.

As far as Mississauga, I was wrong. It does not have 2 stations. It has 10! Tell me how many parking spaces each of those stations have and you will see that the total is likely just like the Whitby GO - higher than the ridership of WCE.

~3k spaces, out of... 138,501 people in Whitby? If they’re all full (unlikely, 4.2k/day would be 2,100 round trips), that's roughly the same ridership as one Burnaby feeder bus; the 250 to Horseshoe Bay used to get 11k all by itself. Zero points to swimmer.

Bus priority lanes, slowly upgraded to curb-separated ones - yes, that’s usually how BRT works, and that’s what the R1, R3, R4 and future R6 have or will have. The 99 is not full BRT and will likely not be due to Broadway’s lack of space. King George Boulevard, on the other hand, has plenty.

Yes, clearly some people have urban standards so low they’d consider Fraser Mills and Lions Bay to be “vibrant.”
Ten stations, generating less than 11% mode share. I’d hate to see what Mississauga’d be like with only one. Both they and Whitby are larger than any single WCE town - perhaps we should wait until Pitt Meadows reaches 138k as well.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I have plotted it out along the CN line from Waterfront. Sounds like money well spent.

---

Nope..... you are relying on the idea that transit use will not grow...

Sounds like money well wasted, because almost nobody from the Valley is headed to Waterfront; you've just built a bigger white elephant than the Fast Ferries.

The evidence would suggest that modern White Rock is mostly a retirement community based on urban flight, so no, transit growth will likely be in the dozens or hundreds.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I can stop, and most times I do. But then our migrant nut decides to bash anything that is not Skytrain, and so down in the mud we go, showing him that Skytrain is not the universal answer.

---

Others have shown that it is not a fantasy, but a matter of when. A Fantasy would be a fixed link to the Island or HSR....oh wait, those are planned out too, but have yet to come to fruition...

... So, What Skytrain will go to Seattle? The Canada Line?

---

If you build it - they will come.
If a WCE parking lot is full, it is time to expand it. The easier it is for someone to use a service, the better chance they will. It would not surprise me if half or more of the ridership for GO is from the people driving alone to the parking lots. Is that a bad thing?

Every single lame “nut” pun you come up with only manages to make you look dumber; they’re not even particularly creative. If there was any commuter rail line which could realistically supplement SkyTrain or bus service, we’d all be constructively critiquing it instead of taking about what a bad idea it is. There isn’t one.

Two train lines which also require money that isn’t coming, for ridership that isn’t there; the E&N doesn't even have a proper business case. Keep on digging that hole.

You've greatly increased driving in small towns in exchange for slightly decreasing driving on the highways. That's definitely not a good thing.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

~3k spaces, out of... 138,501 people in Whitby? If they’re all full (unlikely, 4.2k/day would be 2,100 round trips), that's roughly the same ridership as one Burnaby feeder bus; the 250 to Horseshoe Bay used to get 11k all by itself. Zero points to swimmer.

Bus priority lanes, slowly upgraded to curb-separated ones - yes, that’s usually how BRT works, and that’s what the R1, R3, R4 and future R6 have or will have. The 99 is not full BRT and will likely not be due to Broadway’s lack of space. King George Boulevard, on the other hand, has plenty.

Yes, clearly some people have urban standards so low they’d consider Fraser Mills and Lions Bay to be “vibrant.”
Ten stations, generating less than 11% mode share. I’d hate to see what Mississauga’d be like with only one. Both they and Whitby are larger than any single WCE town - perhaps we should wait until Pitt Meadows reaches 138k as well.

I am guessing you did not look to see what serves the Whitby GO station.
3 GO bus routes and 4 Durham region transit buses, and 1 Mega bus route. That is 8 bus routes on top of the 3000 parking spaces. Assuming an average of 50 seats on each, there is a potential of hundreds to thousands more offloading at that station. Those buses run frequent enough that they meet most times the GO train arrives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitby,_Ontario
1951 7,267 +23.5%
1961 14,685 +102.1%
1971 25,324 +72.4%
1981 36,698 +44.9%
1991 61,281 +67.0%
1996 73,794 +20.4%
2001 87,413 +18.5%
2006 111,184 +27.2%
2011 122,022 +9.7%
2016 128,377 +5.2%
2021 138,501 +7.9%

How many communities have at least 15,000 within 100km of Downtown Vancouver?
Remember, GO trains started in 1967 on this line.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Sounds like money well wasted, because almost nobody from the Valley is headed to Waterfront; you've just built a bigger white elephant than the Fast Ferries.

The evidence would suggest that modern White Rock is mostly a retirement community based on urban flight, so no, transit growth will likely be in the dozens or hundreds.

Can you read your own data?
https://www.fvrd.ca/assets/About~the~FVRD/Documents/RGS/CommutingSnapshot.pdf
Page 9.

Commuter destination total commuters percent of total
Langley City and District 7,690 34.9
Surrey 4,775 21.7
Maple Ridge 2,100 9.5
Vancouver 1,830 8.3
Burnaby 1,435 6.5
Coquitlam 805 3.7
Richmond 760 3.4
Delta 755 3.4
Port Coquitlam 640 2.9
New Westminster 600 2.7
Pitt Meadows 260 1.2
White Rock 115 0.5
City of North Vancouver 110 0.5
Port Moody 75 0.3
District of North Vancouver 60 0.3
Other 20 0.1
Total 22,030 100%

So,using their data that you provided, assuming using the SRY and CN line to Waterfront, and the Seabus, assuming stations in every major city along the route, the total would be:
Langley City and District 7,690 34.9
Surrey 4,775 21.7
Vancouver 1,830 8.3
Burnaby 1,435 6.5
New Westminster 600 2.7
City of North Vancouver 110 0.5

Total of 16,440 people are commuting along that line. If you add
Richmond 760 3.4
as it can be accessed by Skytrain, that then means that 17,200 are commuting. Even 10% of that is still almost the the total current ridership of WCE. That does not include anyone in: Langley City and District, Surrey, Burnaby, and New Westminster whom would take it instead of the Skytrain ()which back a whole bunch of pages we established was slower by 10 minutes for Coquitlam Centre.)

That elephant doesn't look so white anymore, does it?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Every single lame “nut” pun you come up with only manages to make you look dumber; they’re not even particularly creative. If there was any commuter rail line which could realistically supplement SkyTrain or bus service, we’d all be constructively critiquing it instead of taking about what a bad idea it is. There isn’t one.

Two train lines which also require money that isn’t coming, for ridership that isn’t there; the E&N doesn't even have a proper business case. Keep on digging that hole.

You've greatly increased driving in small towns in exchange for slightly decreasing driving on the highways. That's definitely not a good thing.

Actually, a lot of posters have pointed out stuff, and we have established that it would cost around $10 billion to remediate most, if not all of it.

It is you whom cannot move from your position and only further this thread.

Remember, a place of only 15,000 got commuter rail and has almost grown by 10 times due to it and other factors.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I am guessing you did not look to see what serves the Whitby GO station.
3 GO bus routes and 4 Durham region transit buses, and 1 Mega bus route. That is 8 bus routes on top of the 3000 parking spaces. Assuming an average of 50 seats on each, there is a potential of hundreds to thousands more offloading at that station. Those buses run frequent enough that they meet most times the GO train arrives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitby,_Ontario
1951 7,267 +23.5%
1961 14,685 +102.1%
1971 25,324 +72.4%
1981 36,698 +44.9%
1991 61,281 +67.0%
1996 73,794 +20.4%
2001 87,413 +18.5%
2006 111,184 +27.2%
2011 122,022 +9.7%
2016 128,377 +5.2%
2021 138,501 +7.9%

How many communities have at least 15,000 within 100km of Downtown Vancouver?
Remember, GO trains started in 1967 on this line.

The better question is "how much of that would've happened if the GO Train didn't exist?" Seeing as the entire Lakeshore East line could be replaced by the post-pandemic R4, I submit "almost all of it."

Langley Township has 132k, and aside from Aldergrove, their last passenger train was the 15th of never ever. It's the 401 that's growing Whitby.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So,using their data that you provided, assuming using the SRY and CN line to Waterfront, and the Seabus, assuming stations in every major city along the route, the total would be:
Langley City and District 7,690 34.9
Surrey 4,775 21.7
Vancouver 1,830 8.3
Burnaby 1,435 6.5
New Westminster 600 2.7
City of North Vancouver 110 0.5

Total of 16,440 people are commuting along that line. If you add
Richmond 760 3.4
as it can be accessed by Skytrain, that then means that 17,200 are commuting. Even 10% of that is still almost the the total current ridership of WCE. That does not include anyone in: Langley City and District, Surrey, Burnaby, and New Westminster whom would take it instead of the Skytrain ()which back a whole bunch of pages we established was slower by 10 minutes for Coquitlam Centre.)

That elephant doesn't look so white anymore, does it?

16,440 drivers. How many would switch to a WCE extension, which by definition skips Surrey, Langley and New West and requires a SkyTrain/bus/SeaBus connection to Burnaby and the North Shore? You've got a potential ridership of 3,345; assuming a ridiculously high 50% switch, that's 1,672. Your white elephant just turned platinum.

You could always add a second line to Surrey and Langley, but that doubles your operating cost and again, only gets you another 3,900.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Actually, a lot of posters have pointed out stuff, and we have established that it would cost around $10 billion to remediate most, if not all of it.

It is you whom cannot move from your position and only further this thread.

Remember, a place of only 15,000 got commuter rail and has almost grown by 10 times due to it and other factors.

And $10 billion could buy two SkyTrain lines and a couple of BRTs to benefit over 200x more people every day. The same posters have pointed out as much.

No, you.

Post hoc fallacy; if most of those new residents came because of the train, you'd have boardings increasing by 10k every census. They aren't.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The better question is "how much of that would've happened if the GO Train didn't exist?" Seeing as the entire Lakeshore East line could be replaced by the post-pandemic R4, I submit "almost all of it."

Langley Township has 132k, and their last passenger train was the 15th of never ever. It's the 401 that's growing Whitby.

It is the combination of many factors. GO and the 401 It could be argued that Highway 2 also is a factor.

Still cannot admit that GO had some effect, can you.

Can you show me Langley's population growth?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

16,440 drivers. How many would switch to a WCE extension, which by definition skips Surrey, Langley and New West and requires a SkyTrain/bus/SeaBus connection to Burnaby and the North Shore? You've got a potential ridership of 3,345; assuming a ridiculously high 50% switch, that's 1,672. Your white elephant just turned platinum.

We are not talking about the current WCE, we are talking about the CN/SRY which goes right through them. That is exactly why I cherry picked those cities.

Your move.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And $10 billion could buy two SkyTrain lines and a couple of BRTs to benefit over 200x more people every day. The same posters have pointed out as much.

No, you.

Post hoc fallacy; if most of those new residents came because of the train, you'd have boardings increasing by 10k every census. They aren't.

Cool!
A Skytrain to Chilliwack.....

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

It is the combination of many factors. GO and the 401 It could be argued that Highway 2 also is a factor.

Still cannot admit that GO had some effect, can you.

Can you show me Langley's population growth?

If GO had some effect, it's so tiny it's invisible; Whitby's been sprawling north, away from the station, which is what you usually see in car-centric planning.

Langley Township? Same as Whitby: dead for most of last century, then it exploded in the Eighties and Nineties.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

We are not talking about the current WCE, we are talking about the CN/SRY which goes right through them. That is exactly why I cherry picked those cities.

Your move.

Then this belongs in the Fantasy thread. The CN route to Pacific Central also skips New West and Metrotown; you could put a stop at Brentwood and hope like hell that a few Willingdon SkyTrain passengers want to ride the long way around to Scott Road.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Cool!
A Skytrain to Chilliwack.....

BRT to Chilliwack, getting 100 more riders/day than a commuter train would. Problem solved!

[ssiguy]

One thing you also have to factor in when discussing SoF commuter/suburban rail is that as the SkyTrain expands and more people use it to get to Vancouver, the more crowded it will become. The trains will be packed by the time they leave NuWest meaning that the every station along the entire Expo Line will have to be lengthened to over 100 meters. That will not come cheap and this is to say nothing of the cost of another fleet of SkyTrain cars.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Again, if SkyTrain's 26,000+ pphpd isn't enough, then ~4,000-8,000 extra pphpd is only going to buy you another 10-ish years. Plus all that new capacity would be out in the suburbs; the major chokepoints are between town centres in inner Metro Vancouver itself (e.g. Commercial to Columbia), which commuter rail would skip.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If GO had some effect, it's so tiny it's invisible; Whitby's been sprawling north, away from the station, which is what you usually see in car-centric planning.

Langley Township? Same as Whitby: dead for most of last century, then it exploded in the Nineties.

Langley Township
Annual population change
[1971-1981] -3.65 %/year
[1981-1991] +18.97 %/year
[1991-1996] +3.66 %/year
[1996-2001] +1.48 %/year
[2001-2006] +1.2 %/year
[2006-2011] +1.95 %/year
[2011-2014] +3.01 %/year


Whitby
1971 25,324 +72.4%
1981 36,698 +44.9%
1991 61,281 +67.0%
1996 73,794 +20.4%
2001 87,413 +18.5%
2006 111,184 +27.2%
2011 122,022 +9.7%
2016 128,377 +5.2%
2021 138,501 +7.9%

Say what?

72%
44%
67%
In what world has Langley had that kind of growth? Doubling growth is something impressive!

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

In which case, this belongs in the Fantasy thread. The CN route to Pacific Central also skips New West and Metrotown.

We already established it is not. Remember this:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/commuter-rail-fraser-valley-vancouver

If the government is planning it, or at least exploring it, it is not fantasy.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

One thing you also have to factor in when discussing SoF commuter/suburban rail is that as it expands and more people use it to get to Vancouver, the more crowded it will become. The trains will be packed by the time they leave NuWest meaning that the every station along the entire Expo Line will have to be lengthened to over 100 meters. That will not come cheap and this is to say nothing of the cost of another fleet of SkyTrain cars.

Which is why several station integrations with a Skytrain/WCE is needed. For instance at Commercial and Sperling stations could be a great place for that changeover. Someone could even take the Skytrain to a WCE to get downtown.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Again, if SkyTrain's 26,000 pphpd isn't enough, then ~3,200 extra pphpd isn't going to do jack squat. Also, that new capacity would be out in the suburbs; the chokepoints are between critical points in Vancouver itself, which commuter rail would skip.

Not if done right.

Check out how many GO Stations are within Toronto. Check out how many of them besides Union connect the the Subways. Why would you not do that with the Skytrain?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

72%
44%
67%
In what world has Langley had that kind of growth? Doubling growth is something impressive!

Growth rate =/= actual growth. If a town jumps from 2,000 to 4,000, that's a 100% growth rate. In which decade did Whitby get 70k new residents like Langley Township did in the Eighties?

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

We already established it is not. Remember this:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/commuter-rail-fraser-valley-vancouver

If the government is planning it, or at least exploring it, it is not fantasy.

From that same link:

In an email to Daily Hive, the BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure says they are directly engaged in TransLink’s Transport 2050 consultations for its new 30-year regional transportation strategy, as well as with municipal leaders of the Fraser Valley and BC Transit...

... However, previous studies conducted by both TransLink and the provincial government have deemed utilizing the Interurban as highly impractical given the cost, calculated benefits, excessive travel times, and conflicts with growing freight traffic.

Transport 2050 includes commuter buses... no commuter rail. The previous government also explored a bridge to the Sunshine Coast, which isn't anywhere close to reality.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Which is why several station integrations with a Skytrain/WCE is needed. For instance at Commercial and Sperling stations could be a great place for that changeover. Someone could even take the Skytrain to a WCE to get downtown.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Not if done right.

Check out how many GO Stations are within Toronto. Check out how many of them besides Union connect the the Subways. Why would you not do that with the Skytrain?

We can both clearly see that the bottleneck is Commercial-Columbia, and that Commercial-Sperling is barely half full. Which part of the Pacific Central CN route covers Metrotown or Columbia?

Brentwood will be big in the future, and Production Way has SFU, but with both, it's as easy to just ride the SkyTrain all the way. If you're hoping to pick up the Valley-Burnaby drivers, congratulations, that's another... 718 riders at most.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

We already established it is not. Remember this:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/commuter-rail-fraser-valley-vancouver

If the government is planning it, or at least exploring it, it is not fantasy.

Which is why several station integrations with a Skytrain/WCE is needed. For instance at Commercial and Sperling stations could be a great place for that changeover. Someone could even take the Skytrain to a WCE to get downtown.

Please stop with the Whitby - Langley comparisons. The circumstances are so different that it's like comparing you and a rational human being.

We've also reviewed how there's no space to fit more than a second track for freight into the Grandview Cut - so you're not going to have passenger trains (other than the SkyTrain they already squeezed in) without demolishing buildings and digging the Cut wider. If there's a Provincial Government or TransLink funded study to look at how to build a Vancouver - Fraser Valley rapid transit route, it absolutely belongs here. Until there is such a study - it's Fantasy. And putting it down the cut is Outrageously Expensive Fantasy.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

One thing you also have to factor in when discussing SoF commuter/suburban rail is that as the SkyTrain expands and more people use it to get to Vancouver, the more crowded it will become. The trains will be packed by the time they leave NuWest meaning that the every station along the entire Expo Line will have to be lengthened to over 100 meters. That will not come cheap and this is to say nothing of the cost of another fleet of SkyTrain cars.

How many times do we have to go over this? People from Langley are not going to suddenly ride the Skytrain into Vancouver every day during rush hour. There was a study showing that the majority of people travel for work within their city or to the one next door. The majority of people in Langley will travel on the Skytrain to Surrey (most likely Surrey Central).

While I'm at it, when will this circle jerk stop???

swimmer_spe - if you think you have such great public transit ideas then write it up and include route images and e-mail the damn things to the BC gov, TransLink and BC Transit. Then get back to us when they respond. Until that happens will you just stop.

Also Ontario has roughly 3 times the population of BC and very little freight traffic compared to BC. The comparisons are ridiculous.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Growth rate =/= actual growth. If a town jumps from 2,000 to 4,000, that's a 100% growth rate. In which decade did Whitby get 70k new residents like Langley Township did in the Eighties?

It jumped from 15,000 to about the same as Langley, yet it started with about 25,000.

I already posted, it was in the late 1990s.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

From that same link:


Transport 2050 includes commuter buses... no commuter rail. The previous government also explored a bridge to the Sunshine Coast, which isn't anywhere close to reality.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/drivin...xploring_possibilities_fraser_valley.pdf

Go to Page 63
Then go to Page 65 to see that they estimate between 3770-3900 depending on their eastern terminus.
They only go to Surrey. One could imagine higher service if they could go all the way to Waterfront.

"Track Upgrade – costs have largely been based on work completed as part of the South of Fraser Area Transit Plan2. Estimates have been developed for upgrading the existing track including right-of-way requirements, switches, grade crossings, stations and all other relevant costs."

" capital cost to upgrade the track (not including vehicles) is approximately $11.4 million and $18.6 million per km for the Heavy DMU and Light DMU options respectively."

"While an expanded rail network remains a possible feature of the transit system in the Fraser Valley for the long-term, the provision of rail is beyond the long-term transit strategy for several reasons:"

The list of reasons, on Page 73 highlights the challenges we mention here, and that I do not deny.

Will you admit that this is now something in a government plan? Or will you keep denying that it may happen once those challenges can be overcome?

Originally Posted by Changing City

Please stop with the Whitby - Langley comparisons. The circumstances are so different that it's like comparing you and a rational human being.

You mean one that has grown due to many factors, and one that has grown due to very few factors?

Originally Posted by Changing City

We've also reviewed how there's no space to fit more than a second track for freight into the Grandview Cut - so you're not going to have passenger trains (other than the SkyTrain they already squeezed in) without demolishing buildings and digging the Cut wider. If there's a Provincial Government or TransLink funded study to look at how to build a Vancouver - Fraser Valley rapid transit route, it absolutely belongs here. Until there is such a study - it's Fantasy. And putting it down the cut is Outrageously Expensive Fantasy.

Who said more than a second track?
We have already discussed and proven that CN has plans to add a second track. There is no reason that with that added track that CN cannot fit in a few trains. Remember, the biggest bottleneck is actually not in the Lower Mainland, but it is the Coast Mountains and the fact that CN and CP only have single track through there and adding more will be horrendously expensive. So, until that happens, the CN twinned double track will not reach peak use. I doubt any of us will be alive when that happens.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Sheba

While I'm at it, when will this circle jerk stop???

When the coconut can agree that there is a plan, but it is not in the near term.

Originally Posted by Sheba

swimmer_spe - if you think you have such great public transit ideas then write it up and include route images and e-mail the damn things to the BC gov, TransLink and BC Transit. Then get back to us when they respond. Until that happens will you just stop.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/drivin...xploring_possibilities_fraser_valley.pdf

They already have.....

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

It jumped from 15,000 to about the same as Langley, yet it started with about 25,000.

I already posted, it was in the late 1990s.

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Go to Page 63
Then go to Page 65 to see that they estimate between 3770-3900 depending on their eastern terminus.
They only go to Surrey. One could imagine higher service if they could go all the way to Waterfront.

Langley literally jumped from 15k to 85k in ten years. Whitby never did.

And we've discussed how going to Vancouver and Burnaby will get you less than 2k extra.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

When the coconut can agree that there is a plan, but it is not in the near term.

While an expanded rail network remains a possible feature of the transit system in the Fraser Valley for the long-term, the provision of rail is beyond the long-term transit strategy for several reasons:

• Significant investment is already required in the Fraser Valley just to get a desirable level of local, regional and inter- regional transit to move from a $10 million per year system to almost $90 million in 2031. The 2031 annual operating and debt service cost for a commuter rail service along the Interurban Line between Abbotsford and Surrey are anywhere from $70 to $110 million per year would likely exceed the cost of expanding the entire transit system for the Fraser Valley.
  
• The projected 2031 cost per ride ($70 - $107 / ride) and cost per service hour ($19,750 - $21,500/hr) for a commuter rail service on the Inter-urban Line and similar cost for the extension of the West Coast Express are significantly higher than most bus based alternatives considered such as a premium bus service in a dedicated lane on the Highway 1, Fraser Highway and Highway 11 corridors ($4 to $6 per ride and $150 to $275 per service hour).
  
• In general terms, the long-term transit system for the Fraser Valley could require a 400% increase in service hours over the next 20 to 30 years (to over 540,000 hours annually). A peak only, commuter rail service for the entire Inter-urban Line would provide less than 1% of the service hours identified in order to implement the long-term strategy for the Fraser Valley.

Link

In other words, there is no plan, strategy, or even a mission statement for rail yet. Case closed.