Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I read it. Did you read mine? Four GO lines in Toronto have had 2WAD for years (30-60 minutes in both directions), and they're still mostly park & rides, so don't expect a surge in commuter rail TOD just because service becomes slightly more reliable.

Like I said before, the GO system used be very much like our very own WCE. It is only in recent years that they have increased frequencies, are expanding, etc. Like our WCE, for decades it did nothing to spur growth as most of the older stations were not located in town/city centres outside Union station, but surrounded by park-and-ride lots in desolated areas. However, although there is still some way to go, it has improved a lot since then. I am personally excited about newer expansions to cities further away. For instance, the Kitchener, Guelph and London stations are all located smack in town, and would help in urban growths in the long run.

Guelph Station:
https://www.google.com/maps/@43.5442972,...1yyYZCLmC5x9N7NS-mqeQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

City centre GO station in Guelph serves:
https://www.google.com/maps/@43.5442972,...1yyYZCLmC5x9N7NS-mqeQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

The service is definitely rejuvenating Guelph town centre, and there are more high-density developments sprouting up nearby, such as these ones, which are not far from the station:
https://www.google.com/maps/@43.546549,-...xRPCK7kt4xQM4Mx5ull_A!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Vin

Not true. Metrotown (or Burnaby) has always been connected to Vancouver with a continuous urban fabric, even 50 years ago. In fact, the new skytrain would work better going down King George, as there are more living on both sides of the corridor, without a rural break in between.

And Fleetwood's connected to Surrey, same as Newton - there's just more trees along the road.

See previous link. The only "urban" part of Surrey is downtown Whalley; the rest is more or less uniformly lower-density, and the interurban route is even less than that. And a King George SkyTrain doesn't extend rapid transit across the region, it just duplicates the existing R1, so a frequent bus grid would be dead in the water.

Originally Posted by Vin

Like I said before, the GO system used be very much like our very own WCE. It is only in recent years that they have increased frenquencies, expanding, etc. Like our WCE, for decades it did nothing to spur growth. However, it's different now, and that's called a huge improvement.

Yet while service has increased in southern Ontario, transit usage and TOD have not. So you're unlikely to see many changes in Maple Ridge or Abbotsford if the WCE improves.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And Fleetwood's connected to Surrey, same as Newton - there's just more trees along the road.

See previous link. The only "urban" part of Surrey is downtown Whalley; the rest is more or less uniformly lower-density, and the interurban route is even less than that. And a King George SkyTrain doesn't extend rapid transit across the region, it just duplicates the existing R1, so a frequent bus grid would be dead in the water.



Yet while service has increased in southern Ontario, transit usage and TOD have not. So you're unlikely to see many changes in Maple Ridge or Abbotsford if the WCE improves.

Not including the pandemic years, and while taking note that North America, including GTA region is still very much car-dependent, GO transit ridership has been going up.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/graphics/english/publications/GO-transit-ridership-2016-17.jpg

[Vin]

This is the neighbourhood close to the Waterloo/Kitchener GO station:

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.4531373,...wZUO-88lWSfExpK2Ntj-g!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

Does this look hick to you?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Downtown Kitchener was a thing long before GO service was. Might as well credit ION for that.

Originally Posted by Vin

Not including the pandemic years, and while taking note that North America, including GTA region is still very much car-dependent, GO transit ridership has been going up.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/graphics/english/publications/GO-transit-ridership-2016-17.jpg

It's been going up, but very slowly compared to TTC ridership; Bloor-Danforth alone gets that many a year just with the morning rush. For all intents and purposes, GO is more of a "nice to have" transit mode than a critical one.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Downtown Kitchener was a thing long before GO service was. Might as well credit ION for that.



It's been going up, but very slowly compared to TTC ridership; Bloor-Danforth alone gets that many a year just with the morning rush. For all intents and purposes, GO is more of a "nice to have" transit mode than a critical one.

Downtown Kitchener was a "thing" because it was served by the frequent Canadian Pacific trains in the past. When VIA took over and service declined, the town centre also declined with it. Today, a good GO service complemented by other modes of public transportaton is a way to rejuvenate the city centre, and it has!

GO/Metrolinx doesn't even have to spend too much on upgrading the system because many of these towns already have railway stations!

Recently, services have been extended. For instance on a regular weekday, there are about 23 trains departing Union Station (Toronto CBD) to Kitchener alone, from 550am to past 11pm. That's awesome service for two stations almost 100km apart!

[GenWhy?]

I don't think Maple Ridge, Mission , or Pitt Meadows are clamoring for density

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Vin

Downtown Kitchener was a "thing" because it was served by the frequent Canadian Pacific trains in the past. When VIA took over and service declined, the town centre also declined with it. Today, a good GO service complemented by other modes of public transportaton is a way to rejuvenate the city centre, and it has!

GO/Metrolinx doesn't even have to spend too much on upgrading the system because many of these towns already have railway stations!

Recently, services have been extended. For instance on a regular weekday, there are about 23 trains departing Union Station (Toronto CBD) to Kitchener alone, from 550am to past 11pm. That's awesome service for two stations almost 100km apart!

In other words, because of CP being the only way to get around back then. Downtown Kitchener’s revival strategy mentions density, walkability and attracting businesses; commuter trains, not so much.

The $13.5 billion capital cost says otherwise; maybe Guelph and Kitchener are cheaper than the rest, maybe not, but at $50-80 million/km over 62-90 km, Surrey’s interurban definitely won’t be.

22,000/day over twelve stations is just slightly more than a Vancouver trolley bus route. That's kind of lame for a train line.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

In other words, because of CP being the only way to get around back then. Downtown Kitchener’s revival strategy mentions density, walkability and attracting businesses; commuter trains, not so much.

The $13.5 billion capital cost says otherwise; maybe Guelph and Kitchener are cheaper than the rest, maybe not, but at $50-80 million/km over 62-90 km, Surrey’s interurban definitely won’t be.

22,000/day over twelve stations is just slightly more than a Vancouver trolley bus route. That's kind of lame for a train line.

Not lame. Have you never heard of lower capacity trains? If you think that lower-capacity trains are lame, then you would think the most developed European countries such as Germany, Austria and Switzerland are all lame.

A lower-capacity Deutsche Bahn train:
https://www.lok-report.de/news/deutschla...d-sonderzug-von-db-regio-oberbayern.html

The $50-80 mil/km: where did they get the number and what do they entail? What is the equivalent costing for a skytrain then?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Vin

Not lame. Have you never heard of lower capacity trains? If you think that lower-capacity trains are lame, then you would think the most developed European countries such as Germany, Austria and Switzerland are all lame.

A lower-capacity Deutsche Bahn train:
https://www.lok-report.de/news/deutschla...d-sonderzug-von-db-regio-oberbayern.html

The $50-80 mil/km: where did they get the number and what do they entail? What is the equivalent costing for a skytrain then?

So Toronto's busiest commuter lines are comparable to Germany's emptiest - that's a fairly weak argument, especially when the TTC is catching up to Munich and Berlin.

Take it up with the folks who wrote the study; seeing as GO's expansion is roughly $90m/km, it's already fairly cheap. Langley is $250m/km ($4.01 billion for 16km), but since it's only 1/4th-1/6th the distance, it actually works out to the same price. It's the same as the light rail argument: you're spending less per distance, but you're also getting less.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Exactly: most of that housing is conveniently close to the highway... not necessarily the train stations. Check any of those three again - even the streetscape is biased against a short walk over to GO.

The WCE's been around for 27 years and still doesn't have any density. Think that'll change if you wait another eight?

Uhm.... no.

The Lakeshore East line follows the 401 once out of Toronto.
The Lakeshore West line follows the QEW.

East of Toronto, since that was the CN mainline, much of what was south of the 401 was industrial/commercial. Fast forward a few decades and now it is full of a mix of housing. Twenty years ago, the housing was centered around the old Highway 2. That is because it was the original highway was Highway 2. Then, the 401 was built and things started to fill in between it and highway 2. Since the start up of GO trains, they have been filling in south to the lake.

Originally Posted by Vin

I really can't imagine the skytrain going through this:
https://www.google.com/maps/@49.1403852,...itch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

Farmlands are in between Langley City and Surrey, and this particular stretch goes on for about 4km.
And if skytrain were to be extended to Abbotsford from Langley (God forbid!), then it would have to go through 21km of nothingness, and all along you need to maintain all the electrical parts along the guideway to service the skytrain. With a diesel or even electrical locomotives, the tracks are pretty cheap to maintain, with the exception of overhead electrical cables to power the pantographs on electrical trains, which are a lot cheaper to service and maintain for such a long distance.

Like I said, traditional tracks serve this part better.

The thing that I have been saying is that once it gets to Langley, a WCE extension to Abbotsford should be done. Problem is, by that time, the WCE will get canceled due to becoming irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

It does - I'm not contesting that. But as soon as it transitions back into this or this, SkyTrain works better. Fleetwood and Clayton look a lot like Metrotown did four decades ago.

Again, a grand total of nobody on this forum is asking for SkyTrain to Abbotsford. What's actually being said is that SkyTrain and a reworked bus grid will remove the most possible drivers in the SoF region, therefore easing congestion on the highways, and that makes things easier for Abbotsford. That plus express buses with proper shelters will get the job done just fine.

You keep arguing that unless something is very dense it deserves nothing, yet you will not admit that White Rock is more dense than places that already have Skytrain and they deserve something better than a bus stuck in traffic.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I read it. Did you read mine? Four GO lines in Toronto have had 2WAD for years (30-60 minutes in both directions), and they're still mostly park & rides, so don't expect a surge in commuter rail TOD just because service becomes slightly more reliable.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8769557/go-transit-service-two-way-all-day-commuter-train/

Technically, it is not 2WAD yet. But to do that:
"The government says the expansion project will build 200 kilometres of new track and electrify more than 600 kilometres of existing track for its GO Transit rail network. "

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Yet while service has increased in southern Ontario, transit usage and TOD have not. So you're unlikely to see many changes in Maple Ridge or Abbotsford if the WCE improves.

Do you live in a condo?
Should we all live in a condo?
Should existing vibrant neighbourhoods be razed and condos be built?

You know what is interesting about percentages? They are not actual numbers, but are fun to use. For instance if we said that 10% of users ride transit. Is that good or is that bad? I say it is irrelevant unless we know actual population. 10% of 1,000 is a lot less than 10% of 1,000,000. The GTA is seeing regular growth of population for decades and it does not show signs of slowing down. So, if 10 years ago, 10% of them did something, and now it is only 11%, the actual numbers are quite higher.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

So Toronto's busiest commuter lines are comparable to Germany's emptiest - that's a fairly weak argument, especially when the TTC is catching up to Munich and Berlin.

Take it up with the folks who wrote the study; seeing as GO's expansion is roughly $90m/km, it's already fairly cheap. Langley is $250m/km ($4.01 billion for 16km), but since it's only 1/4th-1/6th the distance, it actually works out to the same price. It's the same as the light rail argument: you're spending less per distance, but you're also getting less.

The line to Abbotsford is about 85km.
The Surrey - Langley extension would be 16km

If we used your numbers.
85km - 7.66 Billion
Or 4.01 Billion

Now remember, when GO upgrades a line, it builds it to a design speed of 150km/hr. Applying that to the SRY line, that would mean that slow Class 1 line would be upgraded to a Class 5+

I would say you are getting quite a lot. And, you are reaching more citizens.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Uhm.... no.

The Lakeshore East line follows the 401 once out of Toronto.
The Lakeshore West line follows the QEW.

East of Toronto, since that was the CN mainline, much of what was south of the 401 was industrial/commercial. Fast forward a few decades and now it is full of a mix of housing. Twenty years ago, the housing was centered around the old Highway 2. That is because it was the original highway was Highway 2. Then, the 401 was built and things started to fill in between it and highway 2. Since the start up of GO trains, they have been filling in south to the lake.

In other words, they ran out of room along the smaller highway, and started sprawling toward the bigger highway. You can clearly see both the old and new development is centred along the interchanges. Not the train stations.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

You keep arguing that unless something is very dense it deserves nothing, yet you will not admit that White Rock is more dense than places that already have Skytrain and they deserve something better than a bus stuck in traffic.

Do you live in a condo?
Should we all live in a condo?
Should existing vibrant neighbourhoods be razed and condos be built?

You know what is interesting about percentages? They are not actual numbers, but are fun to use. For instance if we said that 10% of users ride transit. Is that good or is that bad? I say it is irrelevant unless we know actual population. 10% of 1,000 is a lot less than 10% of 1,000,000. The GTA is seeing regular growth of population for decades and it does not show signs of slowing down. So, if 10 years ago, 10% of them did something, and now it is only 11%, the actual numbers are quite higher.

High density... low population. I’ve been pretty consistent on that. A BRT comes with its own separated bus lanes, so they won’t be stuck in traffic at all.

If you’re calling Maple Ridge or Abbotsford “vibrant neighbourhoods,” then you’ve just checkmated yourself. Wouldn’t hurt to at least have a lowrise village at Maple Meadows instead of cul-de-sacs and warehouses and a big Chrysler dealership, no?

Luckily, we can see Toronto transit mode share outright increasing to 37% by 7.7 points total over a ten-year period, and without any new RT projects. So there's fortunately no need to split hairs over 1% here or 100k there, we can clearly see that Mississauga and the others are far behind.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The line to Abbotsford is about 85km.
The Surrey - Langley extension would be 16km

If we used your numbers.
85km - 7.66 Billion
Or 4.01 Billion

Now remember, when GO upgrades a line, it builds it to a design speed of 150km/hr. Applying that to the SRY line, that would mean that slow Class 1 line would be upgraded to a Class 5+

I would say you are getting quite a lot. And, you are reaching more citizens.

To be precise, it's 62km to Abbotsford (plot it out if you don't believe me) and 99km to Chilliwack. At $65m/km average, that’s $4.03 and $6.44 billion respectively, and you’d be lucky if you got anything beyond Class 3. Class 5 at $90m/km (GO's price) would be $5.58 billion to Abbotsford alone.

BRT from the Expo's Langley Station to Abbotsford? Same reach, much less money; Surrey was pegged at $770-900 million for both Newton-Guildford and Langley.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

You keep arguing that unless something is very dense it deserves nothing, yet you will not admit that White Rock is more dense than places that already have Skytrain and they deserve something better than a bus stuck in traffic.

You know what is interesting about percentages? They are not actual numbers, but are fun to use. For instance if we said that 10% of users ride transit. Is that good or is that bad? I say it is irrelevant unless we know actual population. 10% of 1,000 is a lot less than 10% of 1,000,000. The GTA is seeing regular growth of population for decades and it does not show signs of slowing down. So, if 10 years ago, 10% of them did something, and now it is only 11%, the actual numbers are quite higher.

Let's see if we can finally rule out the idea of a commuter service by rail to White Rock. It has seeing regular growth of population for decades but it's quite a bit less than other parts of Metro Vancouver. It added 3,689 people in 20 years to 2021. That's a 20% increase in 20 years, while overall Metro Vancouver grew by 33% in the same period (655K). In the previous 20 years it added more people, 4,700, which was a 35% increase, but still less than Metro which grew 53% in the same period(719K). So the growth is less than other parts of Metro, and it's been slowing down a bit.

It may be dense, but there are still only 22,000 people living in White Rock. It's a special place, but not so much for working age people; In 2001 10% were aged under 15, and 31% were seniors. In 2021 only 9% were aged under 15, but over 37% were over 65. So almost all the population growth in that 20 years was seniors - the working age population remained almost stable growing from 11,200 to just 11,800 people. And not all of them worked; some were students, some stay-at-home parents, and some retired early. Under 11,000 residents of White Rock would have been working in 2021 (the exact number hasn't been published yet).

There were around 10,000 residents working in 2016 - the last census with travel data. 1,100 of them worked at home, and another 1,100 had no fixed place of work. Of the 7,675 residents who travelled to work in 2016, only 555 took transit (that's a 7.2% mode share for transit - I'd say 7.2% of 7,675 is not a lot).

So for commuter rail to be justified you'd really have to get a lot of people who currently drive switching to transit. But 2,745 White Rock residents worked in Surrey, and 1,030 stayed in White Rock, so the commuter service wouldn't be justified for them.

Only 675 worked in Vancouver, and 265 in Burnaby. It would be extraordinary if you could get 50% of them taking a train - many would use a vehicle for work, or would find it more convenient. But let's say you could - if you could get new tracks, and track time, you'd be setting up an expensive train system to serve maybe 500 people? If you're lucky. (If you go back to 2006 and 1996 data, you can find over 900 White Rock residents working in Vancouver. As with much of Greater Vancouver, people are working closer to home - or from home these days). Changing work patterns mean that probably fewer would work full time in the Core, and commute from White Rock. As we've seen with Translink data, the WCE has so far recovered a far smaller proportion of former passengers than either SkyTrain or buses.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Let's see if we can finally rule out the idea of a commuter service by rail to White Rock.

Oh, come on , man - don't let facts stand in the way of fantasies!!!

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Oh, come on , man - don't let facts stand in the way of fantasies!!!

Recent evidence shows pages and pages of ignoring facts that inconveniently challenge the idea that adding more commuter rail is likely, or even appropriate in the Lower Mainland. I've commented that any discussion on adding more commuter rail in the near to medium future should be in the Fantasy thread. I think this thread should be about existing or actual proposals for heavy rail, commuter rail and intercity transportation.

Announcements about funding for investigations of the business case for high speed rail seem to fit here. Proposals by the rail company to twin the tracks in the Grandview Cut (or to drop that idea for now), fit here.

'Wouldn't it be a good idea if...' comments really don't seem to belong here, but apparently if you're bored you still like to fill the thread with comparisons to Ontario as if the history, available tracks, freight movements, population numbers and cash for transit investments are somehow comparable.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Recent evidence shows pages and pages of ignoring facts that inconveniently challenge the idea that adding more commuter rail is likely, or even appropriate in the Lower Mainland. I've commented that any discussion on adding more commuter rail in the near to medium future should be in the Fantasy thread. I think this thread should be about existing or actual proposals for heavy rail, commuter rail and intercity transportation.

With infinite public transit funds, Vancouver should have heavy rail links to Whistler, Squamish, Calgary, Kamloops, Abottsford, Vernon, Kelowna, and Penticton. Vancouver should also have HSR to Seattle and Portland. And while we're at it, Skytrain should be extended to the north shore and to White Rock, with at two new east/west lines and one new north/south line added to Vancouver itself.

But there are not infinite public transit funds, so the government must decide which projects will yield the greatest return. There are probably a dozen or so potential Skytrain lines within metro Vancouver that would yield higher ridership and take more cars off the road than rail to the valley. But not all of those lines will be built so rail to the valley won't be either.

I agree that this conversation should be moved to the fantasy thread, but that would require our friend Swimmer to acknowledge that these pet projects have no chance of being built, at least within the next 50 years.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I don't think Maple Ridge, Mission , or Pitt Meadows are clamoring for density

Not yet but wait for a demographic shift. Things might change.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Recent evidence shows pages and pages of ignoring facts that inconveniently challenge the idea that adding more commuter rail is likely, or even appropriate in the Lower Mainland. I've commented that any discussion on adding more commuter rail in the near to medium future should be in the Fantasy thread. I think this thread should be about existing or actual proposals for heavy rail, commuter rail and intercity transportation.

I guess our BC government loves talking about fantasies too. Authorities are actually talking about ADDING commuter rail to the current system.

BC government planning commuter rail from Metro Vancouver to Fraser Valley
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/commuter-rail-fraser-valley-vancouver

[Vin]

Here's a good read from 2019's proposal:

Hydrogen train to Chilliwack? Group pitches new interurban rail line in Fraser Valley
https://globalnews.ca/news/5135991/hydro...w-interurban-rail-line-in-fraser-valley/

[ssiguy]

You can't go by city densities because they are based upon city boundaries. Did you notice how the large cities of Ottawa and London weren't included in Ontario's densest cities?

Both cities are artificially large due to large annexations. Ottawa is huge because the once city of Ottawa annexed the entire Carleton county with all it's suburbs and the massive NCR Greenbelt. London's square area grew by over 40% overnight in 2000 when the city annexed Westminster township with only about 5,000 people as it was almost totally agricultural land. Today it probably has only 15,000 people because the agricultural land remains and the rest is primarily industrial/commercial near the 401 & 402. Nearly all of it remains outside the city's growth boundary.

As far as GO's massive parking, it is indeed a problem except in the city itself which has almost no parking lots. Metrolinx has spent a ridiculous amount on parking garages much to the furry of urbanists but there is a method in it's madness. The parking garages allow for much smaller parking footprints allowing the area to create higher density developments at the station which we are beginning to see as frequency improves, the trains are electrified and hence faster, and they are beginning to bring in widespread fair integration for all 905 areas.