Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Japan shows a country can have low natality, low immigration, and remain quite prosperous. If Japan doesn't need immigration to remain prosperous, surely Canada doesn't need it too.

Japan has a large number of large-scale export-oriented major multinational corporations to bring in wealth.

Toyota will still be selling cars globally even if it assembles them elsewhere than Japan. The profit ends up back in Japan.

When one goes abroad and sees what Canada does in a similar vein, it's not exactly bringing in the bacon.

[GreaterMontréal]

French as mother tongue , +70k , about 6,3 million
Mother tongue English , +38k , 639,365

First official language spoken : French , + 158,625
2021 : 6,909,570
2016 : 6,750,945

First official language spoken : English , + 124,700
2021 : 1,088,820
2016 : 964,120

most of the ''English only'' crowd is probably due to the inbound interprovincial migration.

[lio45]

Coincidentally, right before checking this thread, I read this column in today's Montreal paper:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2022/09/07/un-risque-majeur-pour-le-quebec-dans-le-canada

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Japan shows a country can have low natality, low immigration, and remain quite prosperous. If Japan doesn't need immigration to remain prosperous, surely Canada doesn't need it too.

Interesting that you bring up Japan as it is a good example of a country that doesn't like immigration and is currently paying the price for it. Incredibly high debt-to-GDP, low growth projections, and the need to quadruple their foreign workforce in the next two decades if they are to meet even the most paltry of high-growth scenarios.

A cautionary tale for Quebec if one ever existed. What happens in areas with aging demographics when you don't introduce new people is that you end up in a scenario where worker productivity decreases as your working age population decreases. In order to ensure that your workforce, and your economy, doesn't contract, you have to fill the gaps with labour from abroad.

Japan's incredible export economy keeps it afloat for the time being, and continues on due to the vast majority of that government debt being held by Japanese banks themselves. Quebec would fair nowhere near as well if they were to try similar tactics of limiting immigration and letting their population contract. You'd save the language but make living there far worse as purchasing power decreases, savings are decreased to take on debt, and export industries more difficult to create due to lack of working age population and braindrain. Presumably the rest of the country would be responsible for bailing them out.

[GreaterMontréal]

When Legault said that Quebec could be like other small countries, he was talking about independence indirectly. Most people here are not paying attention about this coming election, but 3 out of 4 parties are talking directly or indirectly about the future independence, and the only party that opposes it will end up with an abominable result alias the PLQ. Even the PCQ said it could be possible in the future
https://www.journaldequebec.com/2022/09/...mais-peut-etre-oui-plus-tard-dit-duhaime

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

When Legault said that Quebec could be like other small countries, he was talking about independence indirectly. Most people here are not paying attention about this coming election, but 3 out of 4 parties are talking directly or indirectly about the future independence, and the only party that opposes it will end up with an abominable result alias the PLQ.

I suppose that is both the riskiest option and the one with the potential largest rewards.

One might need a big provocation from the feds on the scale of Meech Lake/Charlottetown and the economy hitting the skids hard to make it resonate.

Don't quite get that same sense of anger yet (the early '90s were very unhappy), but I'm not super on the pulse of Quebec-related things.

[thurmas]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

When Legault said that Quebec could be like other small countries, he was talking about independence indirectly. Most people here are not paying attention about this coming election, but 3 out of 4 parties are talking directly or indirectly about the future independence, and the only party that opposes it will end up with an abominable result alias the PLQ. Even the PCQ said it could be possible in the future
https://www.journaldequebec.com/2022/09/...mais-peut-etre-oui-plus-tard-dit-duhaime

That's been the case since the 1960s Quebec always does that to get more goodies from Ottawa nothing has changed at all. Bourassa used to use threats like that the old adq and the old union nationale did that too.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I suppose that is both the riskiest option and the one with the potential largest rewards.

One might need a big provocation from the feds on the scale of Meech Lake/Charlottetown and the economy hitting the skids hard to make it resonate.

Don't quite get that same sense of anger yet (the early '90s were very unhappy), but I'm not super on the pulse of Quebec-related things.

The economy is in great shape and the salaries are going up as well.

Legault wants to build new dams to make sure the province will have enough power when the world will be all electric. He will likely put the Federal government into a corner with this idea.

[thurmas]

Mainstreet poll today caq 38% liberals and conservatives tied 18 % each pq and qs tied 11% each.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I suppose that is both the riskiest option and the one with the potential largest rewards.

One might need a big provocation from the feds on the scale of Meech Lake/Charlottetown and the economy hitting the skids hard to make it resonate.

Don't quite get that same sense of anger yet (the early '90s were very unhappy), but I'm not super on the pulse of Quebec-related things.

A new twist might be a new Quebec that's prosperous enough to be a lot cockier and make take-it-or-leave-it demands to a tone-deaf Canada.

I mean, what happens in say 20 years if Quebec becomes a "have" province?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

French speakers have declined in Québec according to the last census. That's also what the op-ed mentions. In particular, from what I understand reading several Le Devoir articles, Québec politicians left and right (including the new leader of the Québec Conservative Party) accuse the federal government of making it difficult for Francophone African students to come study in Québec, while making it easier for Anglophone students to come, which has inflated the number of Anglophones in Québec in recent years. The leader of the Québec Conservative Party claims he could "repatriate" immigration powers from Ottawa to Québec City because he's close to Pierre Poilièvre.

In any case a Québec at 10% of Canada's population means the province would become irrelevant and have no more say in Canadian policies, and Canada's supreme court could basically decide anything it wishes to decide regarding Québec, without Québec being able to influence things in Ottawa anymore. From there it's not far-fetched to imagine a complete dismantlement of the language policies of Québec. Give it 2 or 3 more generations, and Louisiana is not a completely unconceivable scenario.

Correct. Quebec's language policies have always been extremely unpopular in Anglo-Canada since they began almost 50 years ago.

Even with Quebec as 25-30% of the Canadian population and a strong separatist threat there have always been strong calls for the federal government to intervene by any means possible to get rid of them.

One can imagine what will happen when Quebec is 15% or even less of the Canadian population and has a lot less political power.

The percentage of francophones within Quebec itself is of course very important, but the population share of Quebec in Canada, and of francophones in Canada, is also very critical.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

The economy is in great shape and the salaries are going up as well.

Legault wants to build new dams to make sure the province will have enough power when the world will be all electric. He will likely put the Federal government into a corner with this idea.

Absolutely.

The question becomes: Do you try the independence thing when riding high, or do you wait until people are angry about the status quo, which is less likely when the economy is humming along? Optimally one would aim for both economy doing well and people angry, I would imagine. (see: Alberta)

The risk: It works just as long as the high isn't ephemeral.

If you could bait the feds to do something provocative, maybe it works. I don't think we're quite there yet, but 20 years is a long time.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

French as mother tongue , +70k , about 6,3 million
Mother tongue English , +38k , 639,365

First official language spoken : French , + 158,625
2021 : 6,909,570
2016 : 6,750,945

First official language spoken : English , + 124,700
2021 : 1,088,820
2016 : 964,120

most of the ''English only'' crowd is probably due to the inbound interprovincial migration.

Which might well increase, if the strong provincial economy and labour shortage persists.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lio45

Coincidentally, right before checking this thread, I read this column in today's Montreal paper:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2022/09/07/un-risque-majeur-pour-le-quebec-dans-le-canada

It's like the penny has dropped after 50 years. As I said a couple of years back, "tick, tick, tick".

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Mainstreet poll today caq 38% liberals and conservatives tied 18 % each pq and qs tied 11% each.

I suppose the distribution of votes would continue to mean more Liberal members than Conservative?

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by lio45

Coincidentally, right before checking this thread, I read this column in today's Montreal paper:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2022/09/07/un-risque-majeur-pour-le-quebec-dans-le-canada

Ironically, that federal policy of high immigration could lead to the secession of Québec, exactly what they try to prevent. One can imagine that if it comes to a point where the Québécois feel too insecure inside a Canada where they count for nothing, then the desire for separation will rise among the Francophone population of Québec.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

3rd scenario, which would be the best for all parties involved: the federal government ends its rather futile and unsustainable policy of super high immigration. Low immigration for all means Québec's share of Canada's population remains stable, and the Québécois are not swamped by newcomers. Everybody happy.

Why does the federal government has this crazy (crazy because unique in the Western world, and an outlier is never a good thing) of super high immigration? What's the goal of the federal government (beyond the lousy economic excuses that the op-ed rips up)? Is the goal making Québec so small inside Canada that the threat of separatism completely disappears? Is the goal making Canada a big and strong country able to compete with the US? (which would be totally foolish anyway... even a Canada of 80 million would remain a minnow next to the US)

So what's the goal of those insanely high immigration targets set by the federal government? Seen from Europe (and even the US), it's just bizarre. Even Australia doesn't have immigration targets as high as those now set by the Canadian federal government.

Will life really be better when Toronto has 15 million inhabitants and Vancouver 8 million? Seriously? And why stop there? Toronto at 30 million and Vancouver at 20 million? And why stop there?... Immigrants are not going to go live in Yukon or Northern Manitoba. They'll settle in the already large metro areas.

I honestly do not see any short-term, medium-term or even long-term scenario where Canada (ie Anglo-Canada) wants to reduce immigration.

And they certainly wouldn't do it just because of Quebec's concerns.

Keep in mind that right now there is the influential Century Initiative that aims to boost Canada's population through immigration to 100 million by 2100.

I believe there are almost no francophones (if any) on the Board of Directors of the initiative and in their communications there is zero about the historic demographic balance between francophones or anglophones, and of course nothing about Indigenous people either as far as I know.

So they never even thought about it.

Immigration is today viewed by the majority in Anglo-Canada as an absolute virtue, so for comparative purposes it's as if the most leftist open borders Democrats in the US, or maybe La France Insoumise, were a much larger share of their countries' populations.

Of course, as we all know, immigration from the developing world to the developed world isn't a humanitarian or altruistic endeavour, but rather a mercantile one in order to provide a) more labour both skilled and unskilled to private business and b) a larger base of domestic clients for private business.

[JHikka]

Many here seem to forget that the CAQ and Legault are bringing up this whole issue during an election.

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I suppose the distribution of votes would continue to mean more Liberal members than Conservative?

Correct. Liberals may lose ground to Solidaire but Conservatives are only strong in areas where CAQ are very strong (Quebec RMR, rural). Duhaime is trying to go after Anglo votes now with veiled promises over Bill 96 as it seems they've reached the limit of their Francophone base. Anglo votes traditionally belong to the Liberals in strong ridings on the island though, so there doesn't seem like much room for them there either.

[thurmas]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A new twist might be a new Quebec that's prosperous enough to be a lot cockier and make take-it-or-leave-it demands to a tone-deaf Canada.

I mean, what happens in say 20 years if Quebec becomes a "have" province?

Quebec already has the best of both worlds i fail to see how Quebec's population share decline is English Canada's fault. If the past 50 years was humble and compliant Quebec imagine the Cockey take it or leave Quebec attitude ha ha.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Quebec already has the best of both worlds i fail to see how Quebec's population share decline is English Canada's fault. If the past 50 years was humble and compliant Quebec imagine the Cockey take it or leave Quebec attitude ha ha.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter whose fault it is. It's a question of whether people think remaining in Canada is in their interests and if there is compatibility in terms of where the country is going.