Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Interesting op-ed in Le Devoir about Canada's and Québec's immigration policies. Should Québec open the floods of immigration like the federal government, to be like the toad that wishes to be as big as the ox, as the journalist puts it, and keep a 20% share of the Canadian population, or should Québec restrict immigration to remain a distinct society, and risk becoming insignificant in Canada, and eventually only an assimilated folkloric theme park like Louisiana?

https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/editoriaux/753405/immigration-bataille-de-chiffres

The provincial election campaign seems the ideal opportunity for a serious, dispassionate discussion of the province's demographic future ....

[New Brisavoine]

According to the article, the far-left (Québec Solidaire) is in favor of high immigration, with the Liberals not far behind the far-left, while the sovereignists (Parti Québécois) are in favor of reduced immigration, and the prime minister of Québec is a middle-roader.

The prime minister said that immigration must respect the Québécois values of secularism, peace and order, for which he was immediately criticized by the Liberals who accused him of equating immigration and violence.

Each party is playing the usual tricks, but at the end of the day, what the op-ed says remains true. Even if Québec went for the high immigration promoted by the far-left Québec Solidaire, i.e. the frog-inflating-itself-to-the-size-of-the-ox option, Québec's share in the Canadian federation would nonetheless decline (because even QS's objective of 80,000 immigrants per year is below what the rest of Canada would proportionally receive). The question is, at what point does Québec become irrelevant and assimilated: when it's only 15% of Canada's population? when it's only 10% of Canada's population?

If the federal government continues with this policy of high immigration, there's no reason why Québec's share of the Canadian population would not fall to these low levels sooner or or later. Where does that leave Québec in the end?

[MonctonRad]

As a sub-national state with a large degree of autonomy, especially with regard to linguistic and cultural issues, I doubt that Quebec should have any fears with regards to assimilation, no matter what it's share of Canada's population is.

There is no question however that in the worst case scenario that you paint, that Quebec's influence on the national stage would diminish.

At the end of the day, how important is that too Quebecers? They will remain Maitre chez nous in Quebec.

A decreasing French influence in Canada is more of a concern to francophone minorities elsewhere, even in NB where there is some degree of constitutional protection.

In the last census, the francophone population of NB dropped to a flat 30%. If international and interprovincial immigration continues on into the future to the same degree as right now, the francophone proportion of NBs population might drop to 27% in 10 years and 24% in 20 years. Even right now, Blaine Higgs was able to form a majority Conservative provincial government with virtually no francophone representation. This will only become easier and easier to do in the future.

Francophones might eventually become as irrelevant to NBs government as anglophones already are to Quebecs government.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Interesting op-ed in Le Devoir about Canada's and Québec's immigration policies. Should Québec open the floods of immigration like the federal government, to be like the toad that wishes to be as big as the ox, as the journalist puts it, and keep a 20% share of the Canadian population, or should Québec restrict immigration to remain a distinct society, and risk becoming insignificant in Canada, and eventually only an assimilated folkloric theme park like Louisiana?

https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/editoriaux/753405/immigration-bataille-de-chiffres

If the State of Louisiana is a theme park then it is the shittiest one ever.

Or maybe they specifically meant New Orleans' French Quarter.

[lio45]

From the point of view of being a Francophone environment, it’s a theme park, as opposed to the real deal.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

As a sub-national state with a large degree of autonomy, especially;y with regard to linguistic and cultural issues, I doubt that Quebec should have any fears with regards to assimilation, no matter what it's share of Canada's population is.

There is no question however that in the worst case scenario that you paint, that Quebec's influence on the national stage would diminish.

At the end of the day, how important is that too Quebecers? They will remain Maitre chez nous in Quebec.

A decreasing French influence in Canada is more of a concern to francophone minorities elsewhere, even in NB where there is some degree of constitutional protection.

The threat of assimilation is directly related to share of population.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

The threat of assimilation is directly related to share of population.

But French will remain a strong majority in Quebec.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by lio45

The threat of assimilation is directly related to share of population.

That, the geographic concentration of the minority within the greater federation, and the political power given to the region of that minority.

So what is the strategy of Quebec that produces the best outcome long-term?

It either takes a chance by increasing immigration and hoping the newcomers yield to the culture of the place (risk increases as number of newcomers increase) or it limits the number of newcomers but takes its chances with being a smaller fish in a bigger pond. I'd say the latter is the lower risk scenario, as the biggest movement with regards to language is the allophone population.

The CAQ seems to have its finger most accurately on the pulse of the locals IMO.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But French will remain a strong majority in Quebec.

The risk by being surrounded by anglophone polities is not to be underestimated.

The French language in Quebec can't coast on inertia of inevitability the same way English in Ontario can.

Which makes the decision of the government of Quebec a more difficult one.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But French will remain a strong majority in Quebec.

Perhaps less relevant than a declining plurality on the island of Montreal..

[someone123]

If all you care about is Francophone culture in Quebec, I'd guess that % of population that's Francophone in Quebec matters a lot more than % of Canada's population that's in Quebec. If PEI were 99% Francophone they'd probably do a pretty good job of maintaining that indefinitely as the provincial legislature, municipal governments, school boards, and so on, would vote 100% in favour of pro-Francophone measures.

One aspect that is killing French in the Maritimes is that the Acadians got swept aside economically and inhabit poorer areas that aren't doing as well (as the Saint John-Fredericton-Moncton-Charlottetown-Truro-Halifax megalopolis) and they compete for political power with those other areas that were always going to do better. They might carve out some autonomy but their institutions are not on the same level as a Canadian province.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

Saint John-Fredericton-Moncton-Charlottetown-Truro-Halifax megalopolis

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But French will remain a strong majority in Quebec.

French speakers have declined in Québec according to the last census. That's also what the op-ed mentions. In particular, from what I understand reading several Le Devoir articles, Québec politicians left and right (including the new leader of the Québec Conservative Party) accuse the federal government of making it difficult for Francophone African students to come study in Québec, while making it easier for Anglophone students to come, which has inflated the number of Anglophones in Québec in recent years. The leader of the Québec Conservative Party claims he could "repatriate" immigration powers from Ottawa to Québec City because he's close to Pierre Poilièvre.

In any case a Québec at 10% of Canada's population means the province would become irrelevant and have no more say in Canadian policies, and Canada's supreme court could basically decide anything it wishes to decide regarding Québec, without Québec being able to influence things in Ottawa anymore. From there it's not far-fetched to imagine a complete dismantlement of the language policies of Québec. Give it 2 or 3 more generations, and Louisiana is not a completely unconceivable scenario.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by thewave46

So what is the strategy of Quebec that produces the best outcome long-term?

It either takes a chance by increasing immigration and hoping the newcomers yield to the culture of the place (risk increases as number of newcomers increase) or it limits the number of newcomers but takes its chances with being a smaller fish in a bigger pond.

3rd scenario, which would be the best for all parties involved: the federal government ends its rather futile and unsustainable policy of super high immigration. Low immigration for all means Québec's share of Canada's population remains stable, and the Québécois are not swamped by newcomers. Everybody happy.

Why does the federal government has this crazy (crazy because unique in the Western world, and an outlier is never a good thing) of super high immigration? What's the goal of the federal government (beyond the lousy economic excuses that the op-ed rips up)? Is the goal making Québec so small inside Canada that the threat of separatism completely disappears? Is the goal making Canada a big and strong country able to compete with the US? (which would be totally foolish anyway... even a Canada of 80 million would remain a minnow next to the US)

So what's the goal of those insanely high immigration targets set by the federal government? Seen from Europe (and even the US), it's just bizarre. Even Australia doesn't have immigration targets as high as those now set by the Canadian federal government.

Will life really be better when Toronto has 15 million inhabitants and Vancouver 8 million? Seriously? And why stop there? Toronto at 30 million and Vancouver at 20 million? And why stop there?... Immigrants are not going to go live in Yukon or Northern Manitoba. They'll settle in the already large metro areas.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by someone123

If PEI were 99% Francophone they'd probably do a pretty good job of maintaining that indefinitely as the provincial legislature, municipal governments, school boards, and so on, would vote 100% in favour of pro-Francophone measures.

But precisely, Québec is not 99% Francophone. If Québec was 99% Francophone like the Saguenay area, there would obviously be no discussion and no issue. But then it would also have become an independent country long ago.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

3rd scenario, which would be the best for all parties involved: the federal government ends its rather futile and unsustainable policy of super high immigration. Low immigration for all means Québec's share of Canada's population remains stable, and the Québécois are not swamped by newcomers. Everybody happy.

Why does the federal government has this crazy (crazy because unique in the Western world, and an outlier is never a good thing) of super high immigration? What's the goal of the federal government (beyond the lousy economic excuses that the op-ed rips up)? Is the goal making Québec so small inside Canada that the threat of separatism completely disappear? Is the goal making Canada a big and strong country able to compete with the US? (which would be totally foolish anyway... even a Canada of 80 million would remain a minnow next to the US)

So what's the goal of those insanely high immigration targets set by the federal government? Seen from Europe (and even the US), it's just bizarre. Even Australia doesn't have immigration targets as high as those now set by the Canadian federal government.

Will life really be better when Toronto has 15 million inhabitants and Vancouver 8 million? Seriously? And why stop there? Toronto at 30 million and Vancouver at 20 million? And why stop there?... Immigrants are not going to go live in Yukon or Northern Manitoba. They'll settle in the already large metro areas.

The goal of high immigration in the short-term is to paper over the liabilities of an increasingly large older population (and the services they demand) and weaknesses in the structure of the Canadian economy. A lot of the growth is the 'cheap calories' type in Canada - much less value-add, more resources + consumer demands of increased population.

How long this lasts? Good question. That's a future government problem if one is the federal government today.

My guess to how it unwinds in the mid-term: Commodity prices take a hit as China slows. A lot of the resource sector sheds jobs because Canada is a high-cost producer. The burden of that older crowd peaks, then declines relative to size of the country. Some manufacturing comes back from overseas, but it isn't going to be the glory days. The feds can wind back immigration if the economy can't soak up the bodies.

How the government of Quebec plays its cards given what the feds are doing? That's a more immediate concern, but I don't know how the province squares the shorter-term demands of the locals versus how it wants to play the longer-term game.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by someone123

Saint John-Fredericton-Moncton-Charlottetown-Truro-Halifax megalopolis.

Eat your heart out, New York metropolitan area.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by thewave46

The goal of high immigration in the short-term is to paper over the liabilities of an increasingly large older population (and the services they demand) and weaknesses in the structure of the Canadian economy. A lot of the growth is the 'cheap calories' type in Canada - much less value-add, more resources + consumer demands of increased population.

Japan shows a country can have low natality, low immigration, and remain quite prosperous. If Japan doesn't need immigration to remain prosperous, surely Canada doesn't need it too.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Eat your heart out, New York metropolitan area.

There's BosWash, and then there's the Maritime Megalopolis.

[thurmas]

50 years ago Quebec was 27% of the Canadian population today its 22% 50 years from now it will just be a French British Columbia in the teens.