Vancouver Civic Election 2022

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Still waiting for any pictures you'd like to contribute to the forum. Apparently you, chowhou and Warren haven't advanced to phones with camera yet. How's that flip phone working out for ya?

Still, at least we can count on you to drop in every so often and take random potshots at other posters.

Still lacking research skills I see. I've been contributing primarily in the Brentwood area. Why are you like this?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Still waiting for any pictures you'd like to contribute to the forum. Apparently you, chowhou and Warren haven't advanced to phones with camera yet. How's that flip phone working out for ya?

Do the meds stop working when the temperature gets high? And flip phones take pictures too!

[CivicBlues]

Did I miss something? What are we supposed to be taking photos of? Candidates in public? The ballot boxes?

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Did I miss something? What are we supposed to be taking photos of? Candidates in public? The ballot boxes?

Please no political pr0n

[Conrad Yablonski]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Nothing wrong with voting just for the few people you know & like. You don't have to submit a complete ballot voting for all positions.

Point taken.

[whatnext]

I have to admit I'm really puzzled by these latest poll results.

Mark Marissen has that much support? I literally haven't seen anything from that campaign.

Hardwick is polling strongest with younger voters? Yet weak with 65+?

Stewart, Hardwick and Marissen lead Vancouver mayor race: poll
More than 40 per cent of voters remain undecided, according to Mainstreet Research
By Glen Korstrom | August 2, 2022, 2:11pm

Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart leads a crowded pack of mayoral candidates ahead of the October 15 municipal election with 17.1 per cent support from those surveyed, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll.

He is followed by Coun. Colleen Hardwick (13.2 per cent), entrepreneur and backroom political strategist Mark Marissen (11.3 per cent), entrepreneur Ken Sim (10.9 per cent) and Park Board commissioner John Coupar (6.1 per cent). Activist Golok Buday is much further back, with 1.3 per cent of the vote....

https://biv.com/article/2022/08/stewart-hardwick-and-marissen-lead-vancouver-mayor-race-poll

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

https://biv.com/article/2022/08/stewart-hardwick-and-marissen-lead-vancouver-mayor-race-poll

Man, I saw this this morning and either I'm completely out of touch, this poll was faked by someone who was about to miss their publication deadline, or the Vancouver voting population is more dangerous than I thought.

To anyone reading who lives in the CoV, take these polls as a warning! Every outraged NIMBY is voting, are you?

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Man, I saw this this morning and either I'm completely out of touch, this poll was faked by someone who was about to miss their publication deadline, or the Vancouver voting population is more dangerous than I thought.

To anyone reading who lives in the CoV, take these polls as a warning! Every outraged NIMBY is voting, are you?

Justin Macelroy this morning or yesterday Tweeted how poor the sample size was and how bad the results look - as in not a good pool / accurate results.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Justin Macelroy this morning or yesterday Tweeted how poor the sample size was and how bad the results look - as in not a good pool / accurate results.

Is 552 a bad sample size for a civic electorate of 450,000?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Justin Macelroy this morning or yesterday Tweeted how poor the sample size was and how bad the results look - as in not a good pool / accurate results.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Is 552 a bad sample size for a civic electorate of 450,000?

552 respondants is not necessarily a poor sample size, even for an electorate of 450,000 if it's chosen carefully. If you ever look at Federal election opinion polling N is usually much smaller than you expect at around 1000 to 1500. Justin McElroy is a phenomenal journalist but I'm not sure if he's a phenomenal statistician. The question shouldn't be whether it's a good or bad sample size, but whether it's a good or bad sample. Mainstreet Research of course claims it is.

[Migrant_Coconut]

A reminder that polls are inherently biased towards people who answer polls; Reuters, Ipsos Reid and Gallup all thought Hillary was going to beat Donald.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

A reminder that polls are inherently biased towards people who answer polls; Reuters, Ipsos Reid and Gallup all thought Hillary was going to beat Donald.

Yes, but it's the pollster's responsibility to normalize against that.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Yes, but it's the pollster's responsibility to normalize against that.

Which they did - but with a relatively small sample the reliability starts breaking down. (In 2018 the same polling company had nearly 900 in their mayoral polling).

On the 522 polled, 343 were aged over 65 (so their views were weighted at 110 because they were vastly over-represented compared to the general population). Only 73 respondents were aged 18-49, so they were weighted at 304 (as they were even more significantly under-represented).

They also didn't ask 'how likely are you to vote in the next election', and given the modest turnout we usually see, the responses to the survey may not match the responses of likely voters.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

On the 522 polled, 343 were aged over 65 (so their views were weighted at 110 because they were vastly over-represented compared to the general population). Only 73 respondents were aged 18-49, so they were weighted at 304 (as they were even more significantly under-represented).

They also didn't ask 'how likely are you to vote in the next election', and given the modest turnout we usually see, the responses to the survey may not match the responses of likely voters.

I don't know of any statistics surrounding voter turnout demographics, but in other elections it tends to skew older, wealthier, and whiter. It's not clear whether this is taken into account in the weights, but if it isn't then that bodes well for Stewart.

[whatnext]

Are your yoga pants funneling money to right-leaning candidates?


Dan Fumano: Lululemon founder gives $380,000 to boost B.C.'s right-leaning candidates, asks others to donate
-Exclusive: Vancouver entrepreneur Chip Wilson has been urging other wealthy individuals to donate to new organization seeking to help B.C.'s right-leaning "pro-business" candidates defeat "socialist" opponents, starting with this October's municipal elections.

Author of the article: Dan Fumano
Publishing date: Aug 03, 2022

Vancouver billionaire Chip Wilson has urged some of his deep-pocketed contacts to donate hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece to a new organization that aims to help right-leaning candidates in this year’s municipal elections, Postmedia News has learned.

Wilson has kicked in $380,000 of his own money.

Wilson, founder and former CEO of apparel giant Lululemon, recently sent a letter to some contacts in the business community, titled “A Political Stake in the Ground.”

In the letter, which is not public but was provided to Postmedia by several sources, Wilson urged businesspeople to consider donating $50,000 to $200,000 each to a new organization called Pacific Prosperity Network.

He said he had provided initial funding of $380,000 to let the organization “build software to run a successful campaign, to gather big data, empower grassroots and be an effective full-time voice for the right.”...

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columni...ht-leaning-candidates-asks-others-donate

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Are your yoga pants funneling money to right-leaning candidates?

Thankfully this probably means Sim or Marrisen rather than Hardwick or Coupar. They might be "right" and "pro-business", but at least they probably won't be disasters for the city like Hardwick or Coupar would be.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Thankfully this probably means Sim or Marrisen rather than Hardwick or Coupar. They might be "right" and "pro-business", but at least they probably won't be disasters for the city like Hardwick or Coupar would be.

Apparently it doesn't. Maybe a right-leaning Burnaby candidate, but if Whatnext had read on "Haince refused to say which candidates and parties the Network was supporting, but said they had been working since the spring with council and school board candidates in eight or nine Lower Mainland municipalities, although not in Vancouver or Surrey, B.C.’s most populous cities."

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Apparently it doesn't. Maybe a right-leaning Burnaby candidate, but if Whatnext had read on "Haince refused to say which candidates and parties the Network was supporting, but said they had been working since the spring with council and school board candidates in eight or nine Lower Mainland municipalities, although not in Vancouver or Surrey, B.C.’s most populous cities."

One would have to be extremely naive to think they hadn't been talking to candidates in all municipalities.

...The foundation, Haince explained, has developed software and education programs to help free-enterprise proponents starting with this October’s municipal elections, which they are selling at cost to right-leaning candidates....

....In B.C.’s 2018 municipal elections, the first under the new campaign finance limits, Haince was working as a political consultant and arranged for billboards around Vancouver supporting mayoral candidate Hector Bremner, which were funded with $85,000 from local developer Peter Wall...

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Apparently it doesn't. Maybe a right-leaning Burnaby candidate, but if Whatnext had read on "Haince refused to say which candidates and parties the Network was supporting, but said they had been working since the spring with council and school board candidates in eight or nine Lower Mainland municipalities, although not in Vancouver or Surrey, B.C.’s most populous cities."

This doesn't preclude them from choosing "their guy" in Vancouver sometime between now and October.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

This doesn't preclude them from choosing "their guy" in Vancouver sometime between now and October.

True. But the rules have been tightened up about how money can be spent, so there won't be expensive ads or billboards like there were in the past. It may be that they think the big cities attract enough support and already have back-up systems of the sort they seem to be offering. Having so many parties also makes Vancouver a tougher place to effectively campaign.

I don't know enough about the politics of other municipalities to know where extra resources might help get 'business friendly' councils. What are those anyway? Where residential taxes are higher and business taxes are lowered (or raised less)? Where development fees are lowered? Are any candidates promising to introduce those sorts of changes if they get elected?