BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[jollyburger]

Gregor Robertson?

[MIPS]

If we all say Glen Clark's name three times, will he appear as interim premiere?

[Cypherus]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

Bye Bye Dirty Johnny 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵-again. not sad to see you go. rot in hell.

I heard through the grapevine he is stepping down to try and get ahead of a big NDP Bingo-gate style scandal brewing behind the scenes. Lets all pray for an arrest on 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵-again soon.

You should get some humanity and decency. You do not have to agree with Horgan politically, but he was truly a good human-being who had to walk-though cancer, a pandemic, a housing crisis, a medical crisis, a heat dome, an atmospheric river, a money-losing pipeline he fought through legal channels, and cancer again. Despite that, he always had British Columbian's interests in heart and made investments into BC's future.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Leadership race in the fall. Horgan will stay on as an MLA until the next election.

The NDP needs to run with new blood. No Farnworth and no Eby. Don't make the same mistake the Libs did.

At age 45 Eby is hardly "old blood". That said, there's a lot of possibilities. Nathan Cullen is just five years older than Eby and although he's been in politics a long time he's new as an MLA. Melanie Mark has been somewhat wounded by the whole RBC Museum thing but would be an interesting choice, along with Bowinn Ma.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I dunno, Eby's pretty popular here after his pro-housing and anti-laundering campaigns. The Libs can only win if they retake the Lower Mainland, and being up against Falcon (who's part of an administration that was the opposite) only helps the Dippers.

Eby seems popular among a certain crowd, but I think he comes off as more radical and uncompromising than Horgan which might tamper support and mobilize opposition.

So far his housing threats are still just threats, and no huge headlines were scored out of the Cullen commission.

Originally Posted by whatnext

At age 45 Eby is hardly "old blood". That said, there's a lot of possibilities. Nathan Cullen is just five years older than Eby and although he's been in politics a long time he's new as an MLA. Melanie Mark has been somewhat wounded by the whole RBC Museum thing but would be an interesting choice, along with Bowinn Ma.

None of them have much positive name recognition. Maybe Bowinn Ma since she's thrown her name behind a lot of transit improvements but she's also still pretty fresh.

[Aroundtheworld]

I think David Eby could be a good premier. He seems to have the guts to do necessary but unpopular moves.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Aroundtheworld

I think David Eby could be a good premier. He seems to have the guts to do necessary but unpopular moves.

Maybe, but inherently that means he can burn a lot of political capital very fast. People can only take so much shock therapy.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Eby seems popular among a certain crowd, but I think he comes off as more radical and uncompromising than Horgan which might tamper support and mobilize opposition.

So far his housing threats are still just threats, and no huge headlines were scored out of the Cullen commission.

Eh, the right-wing NIMBYs don't vote NDP no matter who's running, and AFAIK there aren't enough left-wing NIMBY votes to make a difference. Port Moody-Coq and some of the Island might go Green, and the Fraser Valley might go Lib, but that's likely still at least a Dipper minority.

Map of 2013 (Clark beats Dix)
Map of 2017 (Horgan beats Clark)
Map of 2020 (Horgan beats Wilkinson)

[mezzanine]

IMO, he was a good premier, ICBC overhaul, no more MSP premiums (a regressive tax for the most part) made some tough choices that may have upset their base but i think were right calls (site C, LNG). IMO if the NDP were going to maintain power, they should keep up with their pragmatic, centrist approach that Horgan took.

maybe mike farthworth as a possbile successor? David eby's riding demographics IMO make it a less safe seat than farnworths, and mike farnworth has a higher profile due to being the minster of public safety

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

Bye Bye Dirty Johnny 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵-again. not sad to see you go. rot in hell.

I heard through the grapevine he is stepping down to try and get ahead of a big NDP Bingo-gate style scandal brewing behind the scenes. Lets all pray for an arrest on 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵-again soon.

The lack of shame some people feel over the things they say and do is pathological.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

maybe mike farthworth as a possbile successor? David eby's riding demographics IMO make it a less safe seat than farnworths, and mike farnworth has a higher profile due to being the minster of public safety

Farnworth and Dix need to stand aside.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Farnworth and Dix need to stand aside.

Dix, while being an effective minster of health, has more baggage than a 747. He also lost to christy clark when he was last the leader of the NDp

Farnworth doesn't have that baggage and was an NDP leadership candidate who ultimately lost to Horgan the last time around, but still had enough clout to be deputy premier in addition to minister of public safety. When horgan had to take leave while on cancer treatment, he delegated premiership to farnworth.

Bowin ma and david eby may do well in urban ridings, but may not do as well with suburban/rural ridings. Surprised to see langley and Silmlkameen flip to NDP with the last election. otherwise I don't see others really having "royal jelly" for leadership.

[theKB]

I can't fathom David Eby leading the province. Although he pushes on housing and money laundering has anything actually been done? On the laundering file the province is about 10 miles behind the eight ball seeing where new methods of laundering have moved.

Eby is also not holding the crown prosecutors feet to the fire to follow through on dealing with the catch and release criminal justice system.

He also worked for Pivot legal for several years, an organization that is essentially pushing the poverty industries agenda in the DTES.

Eby definitely wouldn't have wide support across the province.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by theKB

I can't fathom David Eby leading the province. Although he pushes on housing and money laundering has anything actually been done? On the laundering file the province is about 10 miles behind the eight ball seeing where new methods of laundering have moved.

Eby is also not holding the crown prosecutors feet to the fire to follow through on dealing with the catch and release criminal justice system.

He also worked for Pivot legal for several years, an organization that is essentially pushing the poverty industries agenda in the DTES.

Eby definitely wouldn't have wide support across the province.

He steered the ICBC reforms through as well. People forget what a dumpster fire the BC Liberals left with that.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

IMO, he was a good premier, ICBC overhaul, no more MSP premiums (a regressive tax for the most part) made some tough choices that may have upset their base but i think were right calls (site C, LNG). IMO if the NDP were going to maintain power, they should keep up with their pragmatic, centrist approach that Horgan took.

maybe mike farthworth as a possbile successor? David eby's riding demographics IMO make it a less safe seat than farnworths, and mike farnworth has a higher profile due to being the minster of public safety

Yes, with all the whining about gas prices people forget the NDP reduced a lot of costs for the average joe. My car insurance went down about $700/year. If you live south of Fraser the cancelling the Port Mann tolls saved a lot and eliminating those MSP premiums was another cost reduction.

[s211]

Originally Posted by theKB

I can't fathom David Eby leading the province.

<snip>

He also worked for Pivot legal for several years, an organization that is essentially pushing the poverty industries agenda in the DTES.

Seriously? Wow, if ever there were a definitive reason for the opposition to jump all over that, now's the time.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yes, with all the whining about gas prices people forget the NDP reduced a lot of costs for the average joe. My car insurance went down about $700/year. If you live south of Fraser the cancelling the Port Mann tolls saved a lot and eliminating those MSP premiums was another cost reduction.

RIP the politician who is going to campaign on saving the average joe money with the current inflation

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

RIP the politician who is going to campaign on saving the average joe money with the current inflation

It's pretty easy to campaign on it. Following through, now that's the hard part.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Either way the Libs would have to take back sixteen seats. I don't think Surrey has enough swing voters to make that possible.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Either way the Libs would have to take back sixteen seats. I don't think Surrey has enough swing voters to make that possible.

The BC NDP won seats in 2020 they had no business winning, these include the langley seats (2), the chilliwack-hope seats (3), Vernon, 2 seats in richmond, Parksville-Qualicum, North Vancouver-Seymour.

These will all be extremely easy BC Lib pickups in 2024, thats a total of 10 seats that the BC Libs are guaranteed to win back.
Totals now
47 BC NDP
38 BC Lib
2 Green


Throw richmond queensborough back into contention with the Libs picking it up, throw in Vancouver False Creek, Surrey-Cloverdale, Boundary Samilkameen, all ridings the BC Libs performed a decent second place showing in 2020 and won outright in 2017.

now we're at 43 NDP, 42 BC Lib, and 2 Greens.

The idea the BC Libs can't win 2024 or that it will even be difficult is mooseshit, I hate the BC Libs but BC is a province that has almost never handed the NDP a win without a right wing vote split, exception being, well, 2020, an election which can't be extrapolated in anyway to predict 2024 election outcomes for the very reason it was a covid election.

If I were to bet money
if John Horgan stayed leader with current boundaries
2024, 46 NDP, 39 BC Lib, 2 Green
Without John Horgan in 2024
NDP 40, BC Lib 45, Green 2

Horgan retiring probably handed Falcon and the BC Libs a win in 2024 and this makes me rather upset.