Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I can see why many Canadians of colour would want to live in a larger area/Metro. Not only is there much more ethnic diversity, but the culture and food scene doesn't suck

Honestly, small town Canada today is a lot better than 30 years ago. But it is a bit of a moving target because our cities themselves are so much more diverse today. And not just TMV. Personally, I'm blown away by how much more diverse Ottawa has become over the last 15 years. I can literally see it in the streer.

The point I was trying to make is that when it comes to quality of life a sense of community matters. Some people get that from friends and family. Some people get it from their board game group. Some people get it from their religious or ethnic associations. We all have a sense of what gives us a feeling of community. And that is major determinant for where most people want to live. This is what people who say, "Why don't you just move to xyz?" don't seem to understand.

Originally Posted by Wigs

That's one gripe I won't make about Niagara. Currently at 485k, we should hit at least 700k-750k in my lifetime, who knows, maybe a lot more. I'm looking forward to the transformation, just hope higher quality and more variety of housing typologies gets built, and not SFH and townhouses that look like it might need to be knocked down in a couple of decades.

The free market is what it is. The only way to actually create more quality without hard regulation is to increase competition. And there's no way to do that without increasing the supply of housing. How do you increase the supply of housing without more sprawl? Zoning reform.

Wanting to know when you will see better quality homes built in Welland? When the options are so great in the GTA that any developer in Welland will have to deliver top quality to compete. But as long as we have sprawl to relieve housing, there's no need to put in actual effort. If Toronto got rid of the yellow belt tomorrow, the housing landscape in all of the GGH would change dramatically.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. It totally sucks for whoever "missed the boat" on this, I understand that.

I resoundingly missed the boat on bitcoin, my buddy wanted to convince me to invest a spare $50k into bitcoin back when it was like $300.

I of course never bought bitcoin after that. Only a sucker (IMO) would get in at the current prices. I missed the boat on that one opportunity, that's all. Just have to content myself with finding other ones...

Any Late Millenial or Gen Z who can't afford a million-dollar Welland SFH will just have to resort to some Plan B. That's life.

C'mon lio, don't you want to spend $1M to live on prosperity row in southern Ontari-ari-ohh

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Wigs

C'mon lio, don't you want to spend $1M to live on prosperity row in southern Ontari-ari-ohh

the back version of the snouthouse. Ass end?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The only people who think it's fun are those who have never been through it. I assure you, not fun. Especially during childhood.....

Indeed. My wife was one of a very small handful of Asians growing up in Sudbury in the 70s and 80s. It sure as shit was not always fun and games.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

the back version of the snouthouse. Ass end?

the "modernE" tunnel housing, but yes!

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I've said this before. I draw a 2 hr circle for the TMV metros and 1 hr circle for anything smaller. This goes back to the points I made about mental geography and how people think about distances in terms of travel time and/or level of effort.

During what time of day?
Barrie can be 2 hours away from downtown Toronto. On GO, it takes almost 2 hours.

So, for you, Barrie is far enough. even if you don't work in Toronto.

Originally Posted by Wigs

totally agreed.

I will say, when you see the "Swift Current"s of North America, it can make even a smaller city like Niagara Falls seem like a bustling hive of action and diversity

Niagara Falls is a special place due to its tourism.

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Also agreed. It’s crucial, really, and cruel that not everyone is able to do so. Not travelling at all must significantly increase the odds of living a so-called unexamined life.

Interestingly, I’ve obviously had the opposite response. Travel made me realize things were quite good at home, and gave me an appreciation for the culture. Now I just can’t feel a sense of belonging anywhere else. There are lots of cities I love - Montreal, Boston, Dublin, Galway, London, Oslo, on and on - but they’re not my city, so it feels transient, inappropriate, unfulfilled to invest my life there. I like the thought that when I’m dead and gone, it’s the streets an alleys of this city where my footsteps were laid. And, hey, the affordable housing helps haha.

*****

RE: Selling and moving somewhere smaller, I’d say at least take a couple weeks vacation where you intend to move, if you can. It’s not a fully accurate way to get to know a city but it’s better than just having an idea what it’s like. But most important is choosing a city where you can live in the area of it where you want to be. For some people, that’s a lakeside cabin in the exurbs; for others it’s right downtown, which is where it gets really interesting. If you’re a middle class urbanite who loves the city, I genuinely think you’d be better off in, say, Halifax than in Markham. The lifestyle you could afford would be more urban.

I did not mean vacation. I meant live and work somewhere. Living somewhere, you learn the real challenges people there face that as a visitor, you might not experience. For example, the "Colewood Crawl", "Don Valley Parking Lot", and of course driving on a bridge and not seeing the other side due to the fog rolling in.

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Yeah. It’s still better than an idea, though. The number of people I’ve met here, especially Americans, who moved to St. John’s sight unseen from tourism commercials, word of mouth, that Broadway play, etc. is striking. Last owner of my house was the most recent. I couldn’t imagine doing that. She loved it, says she wishes she could live in two places at once, but she didn’t want to be away from NYC any longer. She was here 12 years. At least visiting a place first gives you an idea of amenities, transit, atmosphere, etc.

I was away from Northern ON for 8 years. I'll likely never move back to my hometown, but I am close enough.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Honestly, small town Canada today is a lot better than 30 years ago. But it is a bit of a moving target because our cities themselves are so much more diverse today. And not just TMV. Personally, I'm blown away by how much more diverse Ottawa has become over the last 15 years. I can literally see it in the streer.

The point I was trying to make is that when it comes to quality of life a sense of community matters. Some people get that from friends and family. Some people get it from their board game group. Some people get it from their religious or ethnic associations. We all have a sense of what gives us a feeling of community. And that is major determinant for where most people want to live. This is what people who say, "Why don't you just move to xyz?" don't seem to understand.

When it comes to diversity in a small city, Sudbury made it very visible.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=bridge+of...agQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1366&bih=615&dpr=1
The latest scandal on it was whether the Russian flag should be taken down. It was left up, as each flag represents the residents, not the countries.

Everywhere has their own flair that makes them better than a suburb or an exurb of a large city.

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Indeed. My wife was one of a very small handful of Asians growing up in Sudbury in the 70s and 80s. It sure as shit was not always fun and games.

The only ones I would ever see up here in the 80s ran the local Chinese food restaurants. Obviously there were many others doing other things, but that is how many people saw them.

[Truenorth00]

I don't know if it's our zoning rules or a lack of creativity or experience from our developers, but I wish there were more courtyard developments, especially closer to transit (where parking is less of a consideration). Or even something like the blocks in Barcelona with the inside courtyards.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't know if it's our zoning rules or a lack of creativity or experience from our developers, but I wish there were more courtyard developments, especially closer to transit (where parking is less of a consideration). Or even something like the blocks in Barcelona with the inside courtyards.

What do you mean by courtyard developments? Can you give good examples?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Honestly, small town Canada today is a lot better than 30 years ago. But it is a bit of a moving target because our cities themselves are so much more diverse today. And not just TMV. Personally, I'm blown away by how much more diverse Ottawa has become over the last 15 years. I can literally see it in the streer.

The point I was trying to make is that when it comes to quality of life a sense of community matters. Some people get that from friends and family. Some people get it from their board game group. Some people get it from their religious or ethnic associations. We all have a sense of what gives us a feeling of community. And that is major determinant for where most people want to live. This is what people who say, "Why don't you just move to xyz?" don't seem to understand.



The free market is what it is. The only way to actually create more quality without hard regulation is to increase competition. And there's no way to do that without increasing the supply of housing. How do you increase the supply of housing without more sprawl? Zoning reform.

Wanting to know when you will see better quality homes built in Welland? When the options are so great in the GTA that any developer in Welland will have to deliver top quality to compete. But as long as we have sprawl to relieve housing, there's no need to put in actual effort. If Toronto got rid of the yellow belt tomorrow, the housing landscape in all of the GGH would change dramatically.

Agreed small towns are improving. And yes, when people say why don't you just move? the same job may not be there, familial and/or friend connections, etc. so many factors.

I haven't been to Ottawa in years, but remember seeing the transformation from '93-95 (family/school trips) to 2000-2002 (visiting my brother at Carleton). Can only imagine how it's grown and diversified 20 years since! It's a great city/metro.

I want better quality for all of Niagara, Welland is just the brunt of most Niagara municipality jokes.
My folks house sold for $260k in 2007, and the owner could probably get $850k or more now (most appreciation from last 5 years)

Agreed on zoning reforms!
I usually don't advocate for Soviet-style top down planning, but something has got to be done in southern Ontario. The GTA is like an octopus with its tentacles reaching ever further from downtown Toronto to up to 2hr+ drive away, with home prices rising dramatically in all directions. Niagara still does NOT have All Day GO train service.

The Miltonization as Molson puts it is infecting everywhere. Only thing I truly worry about is paving over some of Canada's best farmland in Niagara for endless SFHs. Most people don't realize it's a tender fruit belt like the Okanagan, in addition to all the wineries. cattle,pork, and poultry too. The soil is great and the micro-climate that exists from being sandwiched between 2 Great Lakes is what makes it great for grapes. That and one of the most southerly points in all of Canada.

When people say who cares, it's a global food system I shake my head.
Being overly reliant on other countries for everything? look at Russia now. Europe made virtually everything for them. My friend in Moscow is losing her shit at all the products she can no longer acquire from France, Germany, etc. Russia can't even currently make Ladas

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

During what time of day?
Barrie can be 2 hours away from downtown Toronto. On GO, it takes almost 2 hours.

So, for you, Barrie is far enough. even if you don't work in Toronto.

You have to understand how people relate to geography and value time and distance. Barrie can be close or far depending on the person. Barrie is 2 hrs from downtown Toronto. But it's only an hour or so from Vaughan. So hey if my family is in Vaughan, living in Barrie isn't so bad. But let's say they live downtown, 2 hrs is trip that one can do literally every weekend without breaking a sweat. A 4hr trip is far less likely to happen every weekend.

The GTA is massive which is why I give it a larger ring than other metros. I'd say 2 hrs in each direction for the GTA and an hr for the rest. If the travel is by transit, you might find be able get away with adding 15-30 mins more since riding a train or bus is not as fatiguing as driving.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Agreed small towns are improving. And yes, when people say why don't you just move? the same job may not be there, familial and/or friend connections, etc. so many factors.

I haven't been to Ottawa in years, but remember seeing the transformation from '93-95 (family/school trips) to 2000-2002 (visiting my brother at Carleton). Can only imagine how it's grown and diversified 20 years since! It's a great city/metro.

I want better quality for all of Niagara, Welland is just the brunt of most Niagara municipality jokes.
My folks house sold for $260k in 2007, and the owner could probably get $850k or more now (most appreciation from last 5 years)

Agreed on zoning reforms!
I usually don't advocate for Soviet-style top down planning, but something has got to be done in southern Ontario. The GTA is like an octopus with its tentacles reaching ever further from downtown Toronto to up to 2hr+ drive away, with home prices rising dramatically in all directions.

The Miltonization as Molson puts it is infecting everywhere. Only thing I truly worry about is paving over some of Canada's best farmland in Niagara for endless SFHs. Most people don't realize it's a tender fruit belt like the Okanagan, in addition to all the wineries. cattle,pork, and poultry too. The soil is great and the micro-climate that exists from being sandwiched between 2 Great Lakes is what makes it great for grapes. That and one of the most southerly points in all of Canada.

When people say who cares, it's a global food system I shake my head.
Being overly reliant on other countries for everything? look at Russia now. Europe made virtually everything for them. My friend in Moscow is losing her shit at all the products she can no longer acquire from France, Germany, etc. Russia can't even currently make Ladas

Ontario tried to do something by putting in the Greenbelt in the GTA. All it did was cause development jump it. Kinda like what has happened in Ottawa. What would be better is some sort of development tax that is low if it is less reliant on a car and high the more reliant it is.
You want the snaking cul du sacs throughout the new subdivision? Ok, but it will be very pricey.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You have to understand how people relate to geography and value time and distance. Barrie can be close or far depending on the person. Barrie is 2 hrs from downtown Toronto. But it's only an hour or so from Vaughan. So hey if my family is in Vaughan, living in Barrie isn't so bad. But let's say they live downtown, 2 hrs is trip that one can do literally every weekend without breaking a sweat. A 4hr trip is far less likely to happen every weekend.

A 4 hour trip also means they won't show up unannounced. Mind you, I did live 4000km from family for similar reasons. Right now, the closest is 2 hours and the furthest is 5 hours. I see them both about the same. I have also done both as day trips, so, I am someone who really doesn't care about distance to family. I do get it though.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Agreed small towns are improving. And yes, when people say why don't you just move? the same job may not be there, familial and/or friend connections, etc. so many factors.

I haven't been to Ottawa in years, but remember seeing the transformation from '93-95 (family/school trips) to 2000-2002 (visiting my brother at Carleton). Can only imagine how it's grown and diversified 20 years since! It's a great city/metro.

I want better quality for all of Niagara, Welland is just the brunt of most Niagara municipality jokes.
My folks house sold for $260k in 2007, and the owner could probably get $850k or more now (most appreciation from last 5 years)

Agreed on zoning reforms!
I usually don't advocate for Soviet-style top down planning, but something has got to be done in southern Ontario. The GTA is like an octopus with its tentacles reaching ever further from downtown Toronto to up to 2hr+ drive away, with home prices rising dramatically in all directions. Niagara still does NOT have All Day GO train service.

The Miltonization as Molson puts it is infecting everywhere. Only thing I truly worry about is paving over some of Canada's best farmland in Niagara for endless SFHs. Most people don't realize it's a tender fruit belt like the Okanagan, in addition to all the wineries. cattle,pork, and poultry too. The soil is great and the micro-climate that exists from being sandwiched between 2 Great Lakes is what makes it great for grapes. That and one of the most southerly points in all of Canada.

When people say who cares, it's a global food system I shake my head.
Being overly reliant on other countries for everything? look at Russia now. Europe made virtually everything for them. My friend in Moscow is losing her shit at all the products she can no longer acquire from France, Germany, etc. Russia can't even currently make Ladas

Ontario needs what we have in BC. The agricultural land reserve is large stretches of land that can only be used for agricuture. The cities and town then build around the ALR.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Niagara Falls is a special place due to its tourism.

indeed!
sorry should have clarified. I appreciate the Niagara region, even tacky NF so much more after having seen some of the Swift Current(s) type cities across Canada/USA.

Going away and traveling makes you see all the faults, but also appreciate what things you do have in your "backyard"
2 Great Lakes, epic river with Waterfall, Niagara gorge and hiking, different cities/towns, etc.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by casper

Ontario needs what we have in BC. The agricultural land reserve is large stretches of land that can only be used for agricuture. The cities and town then build around the ALR.

seems like a smart move!

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by casper

Ontario needs what we have in BC. The agricultural land reserve is large stretches of land that can only be used for agricuture. The cities and town then build around the ALR.

We kind of do. 2 different Green belts. One in the GTA and one in Ottawa.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. Renting with roommates in Vancouver vs having a higher-paying job (especially when looking at net income*) in Dallas and owning a house that you commute to and from in a self-driving EV powered by Sunbelt-output solar panels... given approximately equivalent environmental footprints... nearly everyone sane would pick the latter.



*Texas has no personal income tax.

Even with the ostensible environmental benefits of EV cars, the problems of vehicular dangers to pedestrians and cyclists and the lack of walkability, public transit and commercial amenities in large sparsely populated areas zoned solely for residential use don't go away. Is the rising awareness of the ideals of new urbanism in the general public premised solely on eco principles, or are people also connecting the dots when it comes to comparative obesity rates for Manhattan versus American suburbia, or how dystopian shunting children to school in motorized vehicles actually is?

Is it really game up for the inner city once ICE engines are done?

Also, for the majority the choice isn't a stark one between bleak Vancouver apartment with roommates versus sprawling stucco snout house in a Dallas suburb called Sweet Sugerland Acres or whatever that's five miles from the nearest supermarket. There are various gradients along the spectrum, aren't there? Because if not, then even I myself would probably go for the homestead spread with the massive two-car garage. You can drown a lot of sorrows in your margaritas when you have a backyard pool, after all.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What do you mean by courtyard developments? Can you give good examples?

I'm a big fan of Bungalow Courts that were historically popular in California. Here's an example of one from a realtor:

• Video Link

I'm also a fan of what Cerdà originally intended with his apartment blocks in Barcelona. I think this would actually work quite well with midrise development for medium high density in many cities in North America.


https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/8/18266760/barcelona-spain-urban-planning-history

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm a big fan of Bungalow Courts that were historically popular in California. Here's an example of one from a realtor:

• Video Link

I'm also a fan of what Cerdà originally intended with his apartment blocks in Barcelona. I think this would actually work quite well with midrise development for medium high density in many cities in North America.


https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/8/18266760/barcelona-spain-urban-planning-history

How would that improve the walkablity and the transit if we started building those in Canadian cities?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

How would that improve the walkablity and the transit if we started building those in Canadian cities?

These are actually denser than our subdivisions. And many are either car free or restrict parking to side lots. Their form lends itself to placement along major avenues with more transit. One bus stop at entrance of that block might serve anywhere from 10 to 100 residences depending on how densely the block is developed.

As for walkability, dunno what could be more walkable than a car free block. Building gentle density does lend itself to supporting more businesses in a neighborhood.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

These are actually denser than our subdivisions. And many are either car free or restrict parking to side lots. Their form lends itself to placement along major avenues with more transit. One bus stop at entrance of that block might serve anywhere from 10 to 100 residences depending on how densely the block is developed.

As for walkability, dunno what could be more walkable than a car free block.

I understand that now. So, take a typical 1 mile by 1 mile subdivision that is made from the old concession and side roads of yonder. How would you fit that in and keep that walkablity and transit you speak of?