Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

Pretty sure the only thing that actually anchors someone123 to Vancouver is that his adulthood social networks (i.e. most of his close friends who haven't yet decamped for more affordable climes) are all based there.

If they all made a pact to move to Moncton or Halifax together, it would probably be a winning move for everyone involved

Yeah, I know a lot more people in BC than in NS these days. And overall the local ties ("place where my stuff is" being by itself a significant one) are the strongest factor, not which place has a better income to housing price ratio on average or nicer weather.

I will point out that the high real estate prices only mildly negatively affect me personally. But I think they are something that keeps the city from living up to its potential in a lot of ways. And in theory it should be easy to out-compete a place like the Bay Area which is amazingly dysfunctional. If good multi-unit housing with high quality transit were a lot cheaper than other West Coast cities, for example, this would be a more attractive city for tech company workers. As it is it can be hard to attract people in Vancouver and this impacts where businesses locate and how they grow.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Like I said a function of having more options in the US. That said, you could trade in your condo for a really nice house in Regina or Moncton too.

All I'll say is that these comparisons are way too rose-tinted because averages are irrelevant. It's not average 9-5 paper pushers who migrate. It's usually highly skilled people. And they get jobs with gold plated benefits package and salaries that let them live in nice areas. But that isn't the average American lifestyle. The average American isn't getting a healthcare plan that covers everything that is covered in Canada. The average American faces a much higher risk of being a victim of crime. Social mobility isn't great, in no small part because of skyrocketing student debt. And we actually have statistics to show all this.

But yeah if you're a highly skilled Canadian, I would accept that your personal quality of life will be higher in the US. I'm actually surprised, that we don't see more young professionals leaving.

The biggest barrier to moving to the US is getting a work visa.

As I advance in my career, there may come a time where I would qualify, but I doubt I'm there yet. However it's something I'm open to in the future, especially if I go back to school in the next couple of years to improve my qualifications.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I think if you adjust that to lives alone or w/ sig other, rents, and has a car (or not, by choice). They'd be middle class.

Fair point, but I was considering a Vancouverite in the example, yet using the definition of middle class on a nationwide basis. (Is that reasonable?)

If you earn $100k a year, but live in Manhattan, you can be both middle class (for the country) yet stuck living with roommates. Moving somewhere else would instantly enable you to own a house with your $100k income; you'd STILL be just as middle class as before.

Are we in agreement...?

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by jamincan

The huge swaths of early 20th century SFHs in Toronto isn't a reflection of the market at the time, it is a reflection of exclusionary zoning that banned apartment buildings in 1912. This ban was largely racist (due to an influx of Eastern Europeans), and in cities where bans were not implemented, you can see a much more diverse housing stock that includes more townhouses and walk-up apartments.

I really wonder how New Westminster managed to get so many walk-up apartment buildings built in established neighbourhoods after World War II. The building I live in was built in 1960, and it replaced a house that used to be on the same lot. Most of the low-rise buildings in New West were built between 1947 and 1969, though the vast majority were built in the 60s. I can imagine that there must have been a massive demolition of single family homes during that decade to accommodate these new buildings.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's not like we don't have data that shows this phenomenon. Match.com analyzed response rates by race and sex:

Amazing the same people that downplay racism are trying to whitesplain dating to you.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

But this also denies the fact that someone had to be the first Pinoy person in Winnipeg, or the first Italian person in Sault Ste. Marie.

Every ethnic community has its "pioneers".

Not that I think that every single place needs to have every single ethnicity represented. That's basically impossible.

But if it's important to people (as it seems to be), then someone has to make the first move.

Most immigrants moved to Canada for a better life. Not to be the token ethnic in a small town. If by chance, that happens, sure. But you won't find people saying, "I'll be the first xyz to plant my flag in Baie Comeau!"

Incidentally though, this is why I've always said that transport links make a difference. Accessibility to a decent size regional city would make these smaller towns more attractive for minorities. And by accessible, I don't mean a 4 hr drive.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Most immigrants moved to Canada for a better life. Not to be the token ethnic in a small town. If by chance, that happens, sure. But you won't find people saying, "I'll be the first xyz to plant my flag in Baie Comeau!"

Incidentally though, this is why I've always said that transport links make a difference. Accessibility to a decent size regional city would make these smaller towns more attractive for minorities. And by accessible, I don't mean a 4 hr drive.

What do you mean by accessible?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Amazing the same people that downplay racism are trying to whitesplain dating to you.

It is what it is. This kind of stuff makes people really uncomfortable. And they tend to want to explain it away.

I recently brought this up in a professional discussion when our senior leadership asked why the military was struggling to retain and recruit minorities. I pointed out that our reserve units in urban centres have far less issues attracting a mix that better resembles the public. You gotta go to where they are. It doesn't work the other way.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What do you mean by accessible?

I've said this before. I draw a 2 hr circle for the TMV metros and 1 hr circle for anything smaller. This goes back to the points I made about mental geography and how people think about distances in terms of travel time and/or level of effort.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Which is why I am a fan of the idea that everyone should leave home, see the world and then put roots where they want to be. For some, it is their hometown. For others, it is anywhere else.
For example, me, I am planing my roots not where my hometown is.

totally agreed.

I will say, when you see the "Swift Current"s of North America, it can make even a smaller city like Niagara Falls seem like a bustling hive of action and diversity

[casper]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

The biggest barrier to moving to the US is getting a work visa.

As I advance in my career, there may come a time where I would qualify, but I doubt I'm there yet. However it's something I'm open to in the future, especially if I go back to school in the next couple of years to improve my qualifications.

That depends. If you have a BSc degree and a job offer it is fairly easy to get a NAFTA work permit. The job title has to be one of the ones "in the book". These visa are issued at the border crossing on the spot.

If you don't have a university degree and a job offer it is harder.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'd say YMMV when it comes to that. At least dating-wise.

Unless you're an absolutely ugly dork, I'd wager it's probably quite fun to be the only black teenaged boy somewhere like St-Jean-Port-Joli.

I don't think it's fun for ANY person of colour to be the ONLY one representation in any town of North America. Being the "token" POC cannot possibly be fun. There's no one they can converse with or befriend that has the same experience in that community.

Remember that teenager will experience racism along with the possible attraction of teenage girls in the community being the "token" or "novelty" amongst a sea of white kids.

Being seen as the "cool Black or Brown guy" is not what it might seem to you on the surface.

Acajack, I'm aware you didn't intend to offend. But also don't be ignorant to the situation minorities face, particularly if they are the only visible minority in a small community.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Which is why I am a fan of the idea that everyone should leave home, see the world and then put roots where they want to be. For some, it is their hometown. For others, it is anywhere else.
For example, me, I am planing my roots not where my hometown is.

Also agreed. It’s crucial, really, and cruel that not everyone is able to do so. Not travelling at all must significantly increase the odds of living a so-called unexamined life.

Interestingly, I’ve obviously had the opposite response. Travel made me realize things were quite good at home, and gave me an appreciation for the culture. Now I just can’t feel a sense of belonging anywhere else. There are lots of cities I love - Montreal, Boston, Dublin, Galway, London, Oslo, on and on - but they’re not my city, so it feels transient, inappropriate, unfulfilled to invest my life there. I like the thought that when I’m dead and gone, it’s the streets an alleys of this city where my footsteps were laid. And, hey, the affordable housing helps haha.

*****

RE: Selling and moving somewhere smaller, I’d say at least take a couple weeks vacation where you intend to move, if you can. It’s not a fully accurate way to get to know a city but it’s better than just having an idea what it’s like. But most important is choosing a city where you can live in the area of it where you want to be. For some people, that’s a lakeside cabin in the exurbs; for others it’s right downtown, which is where it gets really interesting. If you’re a middle class urbanite who loves the city, I genuinely think you’d be better off in, say, Halifax than in Markham. The lifestyle you could afford would be more urban.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I don't think it's fun for ANY person of colour to be the ONLY one representation in any town of North America. Being the "token" POC cannot possibly be fun. There's no one they can converse with or befriend that has the same experience in that community.

Remember that teenager will experience racism along with the possible attraction of teenage girls in the community being the "token" or "novelty" amongst a sea of white kids.

Being seen as the "cool Black or Brown guy" is not what it might seem to you on the surface.

Acajack, I'm aware you didn't intend to offend. But also don't be ignorant to the situation minorities face, particularly if they are the only visible minority in a small community.

The only people who think it's fun are those who have never been through it. I assure you, not fun. Especially during childhood.....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Also agreed. It’s crucial, really, and cruel that not everyone is able to do so. Not travelling at all must significantly increase the odds of living a so-called unexamined life.

Interestingly, I’ve obviously had the opposite response. Travel made me realize things were quite good at home, and gave me an appreciation for the culture. Now I just can’t feel a sense of belonging anywhere else. There are lots of cities I love - Montreal, Boston, Dublin, Galway, London, Oslo, on and on - but they’re not my city, so it feels transient, inappropriate, unfulfilled to invest my life there. I like the thought that when I’m dead and gone, it’s the streets an alleys of this city where my footsteps were laid. And, hey, the affordable housing helps haha.

*****

Traveling somewhere and living in a place are two very different experiences. There's plenty of places that I have thoroughly enjoyed as a tourist that I would never choose to live in. And there's places I've lived in that I would never recommend to anyone for a vacation.

Also, travel broadens the mind. Sure. But I do think people generalize that idea way too much. Far too many people with drunken nights in Cancun and Varadero who consider themselves worldly because their passport has some pages with stamps.

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

If you’re a middle class urbanite who loves the city, I genuinely think you’d be better off in, say, Halifax than in Markham. The lifestyle you could afford would be more urban.

This hits the nail on the head. I agree with this. You're much more likely to experience something approaching an urban experience in Halifax than most of the GTA. A lot of people, in the GTA, don't really understand this though....

[SignalHillHiker]

Yeah. It’s still better than an idea, though. The number of people I’ve met here, especially Americans, who moved to St. John’s sight unseen from tourism commercials, word of mouth, that Broadway play, etc. is striking. Last owner of my house was the most recent. I couldn’t imagine doing that. She loved it, says she wishes she could live in two places at once, but she didn’t want to be away from NYC any longer. She was here 12 years. At least visiting a place first gives you an idea of amenities, transit, atmosphere, etc.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's not like we don't have data that shows this phenomenon. Match.com analyzed response rates by race and sex:



https://qz.com/149342/the-uncomfortable-racial-preferences-revealed-by-online-dating/

Aside from that, dating is a numbers game at the end of the day. And smaller cities suck for everyone in the regard. They just suck a tiny bit more if you're not in the dominant demographic of the area.

It's not just race either. I would imagine being LGBTQ in a town of 20 000 is going to suck compared to being an alphabet person in a top 6 metro.

In any event, my broader point is that people choose where to live on many factors. And how one defines quality of life can vary substantially. Reducing this view down to how much square footage one can get is pretty dumb.

Asian men respond more to Latina women than Asian women? What am I misunderstanding here?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The only people who think it's fun are those who have never been through it. I assure you, not fun. Especially during childhood.....

I can only imagine, Truenorth

I only became aware by asking two friends about it. My best friend, Todd, in Grade 7/8 was biracial (Dad was Black, Mom was White). When he arrived at the school I was the first kid to talk to him. After that, everyone wanted to be friends with him like he was the coolest kid ever. He was smart, funny, cool, athletic but he was much more than some novelty.

Todd made me aware of how people in retail stores give you "the look like they are assuming you're going to steal".
That when kids are joking or play fighting some teachers would assume HE was the one who started it, etc. If detention was doled out he felt like he got penalized more than a White kid doing the same exact thing.
Just biases that us White folks never even think of let alone deal with.

My friend of Japanese heritage in HS couldn't stand that everyone referred to her as an Asian female. Krystal would say "there's only like 14 kids in this school considered Asian: a handful of Chinese, a handful of Vietnamese, a few Korean, and me. I'm Canadian of Japanese background. My background is different from those whose parents arrived from China or Vietnam or Korea. Japanese culture is different even if we share some similarities as other countries located on the continent of Asia"

Years later only now do we hear a phrase:
"Asian does not equal monolith. We are not all the same"

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I can only imagine, Truenorth

I only became aware by asking two friends about it. My best friend, Todd, in Grade 7 was biracial (Dad was Black, Mom was White). When he arrived at the school I was the first kid to talk to him. After that, everyone wanted to be friends with him like he was the coolest kid ever. He was smart, funny, cool, athletic but he was much more than some novelty.

Todd made me aware of how people in retail stores give you "the look like they are assuming you're going to steal".
That when kids are joking or play fighting some teachers would assume HE was the one who started it, etc. If detention was doled out he felt like he got penalized more than a White kid doing the same exact thing.
Just biases that us White folks never even think of let alone deal with.

My friend of Japanese heritage in HS couldn't stand that everyone referred to her as an Asian female. Krystal would say "there's only like 14 kids in this school considered Asian: a handful of Chinese, a handful of Vietnamese, a few Korean, and me. I'm Canadian of Japanese background. My background is different from those whose parents arrived from China or Vietnam or Korea. Japanese culture is different even if we share some similarities as other countries located on the continent of Asia"

Years later only now do we hear a phrase:
"Asian does not equal monolith. We are not all the same"

It's pretty typical. A white guy will only imagine what it's like to be the cool black kid. But not every black kid is cool. And not every Asian kid is good in math. They don't see the ignorance in making fitting in contingent on stereotypes. This wouldn't be a big deal if kids in general weren't such shitheads who will use any excuse to pick on other kids.

I was one of three non-white kids in an elementary school class of 20 something kids. My wife is a halfie and she didn't enjoy her upbringing in a London, ON either.

That said, Canada is very different today than when I was growing up. And I have to remind myself of that. 30 years ago kids made fun of what was in my lunchbox. Today those same people probably pay $15 for the same thing in the food court. Tldr. Kids are shitheads. And they are bigger shits to anybody who sticks out more.

On topic. Things like this do speak to quality of life. I'm not particularly concerned about somebody making fun of what is in my lunchbox today. But as a parent, I'm not all that interested in having my kids go through that shit either. So I'll stick to the larger metros if I can help it.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's pretty typical. A white guy will only imagine what it's like to be the cool black kid. But not every black kid is cool. And not every Asian kid is good in math. They don't see the ignorance in making fitting in contingent on stereotypes. This wouldn't be a big deal if kids in general weren't such shitheads who will use any excuse to pick on other kids.

I was one of three non-white kids in an elementary school class of 20 something kids. My wife is a halfie and she didn't enjoy her upbringing in a London, ON either.

That said, Canada is very different today than when I was growing up. And I have to remind myself of that. 30 years ago kids made fun of what was in my lunchbox. Today those same people probably pay $15 for the same thing in the food court. Tldr. Kids are shitheads. And they are bigger shits to anybody who sticks out more.

On topic. Things like this do speak to quality of life. I'm not particularly concerned about somebody making fun of what is in my lunchbox today. But as a parent, I'm not all that interested in having my kids go through that shit either. So I'll stick to the larger metros if I can help it.

Yup, kids are shitheads. And the worst ones are the offspring of those with abhorrent views who parrot them direct from the parents.

It's funny how yesterday's ethnic lunch, is today's trendy cuisine. I'm glad that food is playing a role in helping to improve relations and minimize racial bias. Anthony Bourdain understood that when he traveled the world.
And yeah thankfully things have improved dramatically since when you and your wife attended school, or myself, even though there's still room for improvement.

Canadians play up the myth that we are so much better than the US, and in many metrics we are, but we haven't yet reached a point where everything is "Kumbaya" with each other. For one the white nationalist movement has bubbled up to the surface from folks "just asking questions and having discussions" behind closed doors, and we still have a lot of reconciliation to be made with First Nations peoples, among other examples.

I can see why many Canadians of colour would want to live in a larger area/Metro. Not only is there much more ethnic diversity, but the culture and food scene doesn't suck

That's one gripe I won't make about Niagara. Currently at 485k, we should hit at least 700k-750k in my lifetime, who knows, maybe a lot more. I'm looking forward to the transformation, just hope higher quality and more variety of housing typologies gets built, and not SFH and townhouses that look like it might need to be knocked down in a couple of decades.