Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Innsertnamehere]

regarding new construction, urban housing forms for SFDs, there are some examples of various types of this design in the GTA.

Cornell consists almost exclusively of rear-lane accessed detached, lots of secondary dwelling units above rear lane garages, walkable main street retail, etc.

It's ultimately still extremely auto reliant as it's not close to major employment, and commercial retail development has been extremely unsuccessful in the area, with major retail amenities focusing along Markham Road instead, several km to the west.

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.8945659,-...itch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

very attractive homes.

There is local convenience retail units even built in some parts of Cornell, though the stores themselves have struggled to stay afloat over the years:

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.9027069,-...HUNjtEd7m4ASKyXv7FTqg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

Areas like North Oakville are in many ways more traditional suburban home forms with front-facing garages, but feature narrow residential streets, small rear yards, "main street" retail, etc. Much better than 1980's type development, and likely denser than many downtown neighbourhoods. Still almost exclusively reliant on cars for commuting, but that's more because Oakville Transit sucks and not the built form.

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.4719961,-...0TdTWLl3n7MX_a6D_-KJg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

a typical residential street is very tightly packed, while still providing double car garages and 4 total parking spaces per unit. Minimal street widths and front yard setbacks though, which increases overall density significantly.

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.4767869,-...itch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

[rbt]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

aren't homeownership rates at record levels more or less, despite the talk about how impossible it is to get into the market

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/home-ownership-rate

Yes, although the change is larger than what is visible in the chart (Hit the 25 year button). The chart is for people living in homes owned by anyone in the household (I.e. couple + kids with 1 person on title), but people per household has also been decreasing.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/2015008/c-g/c-g02-eng.jpg

Homes owned per-capita (versus per household) is way up.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I wonder how these figures break down for condos vs. SFH

Yeah, let's not pretend owning a 4000sf McMansion in the burbs is equal to a 410sf condo downtown.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah, let's not pretend owning a 4000sf McMansion in the burbs is equal to a 410sf condo downtown.

this type of thing isn't necessarily related to the achievability in ownership, but instead changing preferences. Even in metros with high affordability metrics and relatively unconstrained supply (say, Calgary), have seen SFDs decline as a percentage of housing stock as households get smaller.

There is definitely real shortages of SFD product in Toronto and Vancouver, which is where a lot of the housing affordability anxiety comes from, but a lot of that is rooted in planning policies in the two metros.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

this type of thing isn't necessarily related to the achievability in ownership, but instead changing preferences.

There is definitely real shortages of SFD product in Toronto and Vancouver, which is where a lot of the housing affordability anxiety comes from, but a lot of that is rooted in planning policies in the two metros.

I'm not saying it's a housing type per se, but the usefulness and flexibility of housing. We aren't getting more SFHs, but we need density combined with unit sizes that are realistic for families.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

We need to move towards building the type of housing stock that offers high density as well as family living quarters, and neighborhoods that are not completely organized around the automobile. Skyscraper condos are fabulous, until you have children.

More of this:


less of this:

Those row homes in Montreal are wonderful. Unfortunately they are illegal in 83% of Vancouver because that is the portion of city land that is zoned exclusively for SFH. Outside of some old areas of crime and drug infested Strathcona, there are none in Vancouver. The closest you get to that in Vancouver are strata townhomes and they are very few and far between.

Montreal has tons of that "missing middle" and Vancouver has absolutely none. Three guesses which of the two cities has real estate prices quadruple the other?

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

this type of thing isn't necessarily related to the achievability in ownership, but instead changing preferences. Even in metros with high affordability metrics and relatively unconstrained supply (say, Calgary), have seen SFDs decline as a percentage of housing stock as households get smaller.

There is definitely real shortages of SFD product in Toronto and Vancouver, which is where a lot of the housing affordability anxiety comes from, but a lot of that is rooted in planning policies in the two metros.

I’m really not sure what your angle with your constant hand waving on this issue. Anyways, given the skyrocketing prices of SFH in far flung regions of Southern Ontario, this is a pretty absurd claim to make. People that are forced to remain in the city aren’t choosing to live in boxes because of changing preferences, they’re delaying starting families and compromising out of economic necessity.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Those row homes in Montreal are wonderful. Unfortunately they are illegal in 83% of Vancouver because that is the portion of city land that is zoned exclusively for SFH. Outside of some old areas of crime and drug infested Strathcona, there are none in Vancouver. The closest you get to that in Vancouver are strata townhomes and they are very few and far between.

Montreal has tons of that "missing middle" and Vancouver has absolutely none. Three guesses which of the two cities has real estate prices quadruple the other?

yes, I certainly noticed when I moved from Montreal to Vancouver in the early nineties. Even back then, I was priced out of the market, unless I wanted to buy some shitty 1 bedroom condo in Newton (Surrey) or some mobile home in a trailor park in Whalley. I'm not joking either.

Vancouver area is missing tons of that missing middle. Montreal is one of very few cities with a plethora.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

yes, I certainly noticed when I moved from Montreal to Vancouver in the early nineties. Even back then, I was priced out of the market, unless I wanted to buy some shitty 1 bedroom condo in Newton (Surrey) or some mobile home in a trailor park in Whalley. I'm not joking either.

Vancouver area is missing tons of that missing middle. Montreal is one of very few cities with a plethora.

The City of Vancouver one day went and rezoned nearly all single family home zoned areas to a new zoning that permits a secondary suite and a laneway home over the garage in the back. Basically turning every lot that houses one family into one that houses three. However that extra housing is only being taken advantage of when a house is replaced or renovated. However that is clearly the direction we are going in.

Surrey is still very single family oriented but its is also develop a significant downtown dense core.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by theman23

I’m really not sure what your angle with your constant hand waving on this issue. Anyways, given the skyrocketing prices of SFH in far flung regions of Southern Ontario, this is a pretty absurd claim to make. People that are forced to remain in the city aren’t choosing to live in boxes because of changing preferences, they’re delaying starting families and compromising out of economic necessity.

Im not saying there aren’t shortages of preferred housing types - that’s the opposite of what I’m saying. The GTA’s lack of new SFD or similar type housing stock (ie affordable family sized housing) is what is pushing people into southern Ontario and inflating those markets as well.

Hell I’m one of those very people - moving from Toronto to Hamilton to afford that product type.

I just try to make sure these conversations are backed by actual data and not anecdotes. At least as of 2016, people own their homes at higher rates than ever. The type of home they own is different than before, but part of that is actually reflected in changing demographics as well as shortages of preferred housing types.

It’s not as bad as people play it out to be, but yea, it’s not great either. The pandemic and the advent of remote work has made what was historically just a Toronto / Vancouver problem more of a problem for much larger parts of the country too, though has lessened the issue in those cities a bit.

We’ll have to see what the 2021 data shows, but I suspect millennials are largely still purchasing their homes at similar rates as before. It’s just not a suburban home in Etobicoke, instead it’s a condo in Humber Bay or a townhouse in Milton or something that is most common for a first home.

It’s not like everyone historically could afford a home in Toronto either, I know family who left the city in the mid 90’s after almost buying for better value in the 905. That equation has always existed. The difference back then is the toronto option was a townhouse vs a house in the 905 and now it’s a condo in Toronto or a townhouse / small detached in the 905.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

That equation has always existed. The difference back then is the toronto option was a townhouse vs a house in the 905 and now it’s a condo in Toronto or a townhouse / small detached in the 905.

Yeah, and soon it will be renting in Toronto vs owning a condo in the 905, and after that it'll be renting a closet in Toronto vs renting a decently-sized apt in the 905.

The options just get crappier given comparable attainability.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yeah, and soon it will be renting in Toronto vs owning a condo in the 905, and after that it'll be renting a closet in Toronto vs renting a decently-sized apt in the 905.

The options just get crappier given comparable attainability.

Possibly, but we haven’t seen that in the data yet. I hope it doesn’t get there and that something is done about it before that, but despite all the media focus on it I’m not seeing much that will actually impact affordability in major ways.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Im not saying there aren’t shortages of preferred housing types - that’s the opposite of what I’m saying. The GTA’s lack of new SFD or similar type housing stock (ie affordable family sized housing) is what is pushing people into southern Ontario and inflating those markets as well.

Hell I’m one of those very people - moving from Toronto to Hamilton to afford that product type.

I just try to make sure these conversations are backed by actual data and not anecdotes. At least as of 2016, people own their homes at higher rates than ever. The type of home they own is different than before, but part of that is actually reflected in changing demographics as well as shortages of preferred housing types.

It’s not as bad as people play it out to be, but yea, it’s not great either. The pandemic and the advent of remote work has made what was historically just a Toronto / Vancouver problem more of a problem for much larger parts of the country too, though has lessened the issue in those cities a bit.

We’ll have to see what the 2021 data shows, but I suspect millennials are largely still purchasing their homes at similar rates as before. It’s just not a suburban home in Etobicoke, instead it’s a condo in Humber Bay or a townhouse in Milton or something that is most common for a first home.

It’s not like everyone historically could afford a home in Toronto either, I know family who left the city in the mid 90’s after almost buying for better value in the 905. That equation has always existed. The difference back then is the toronto option was a townhouse vs a house in the 905 and now it’s a condo in Toronto or a townhouse / small detached in the 905.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Possibly, but we haven’t seen that in the data yet. I hope it doesn’t get there and that something is done about it before that, but despite all the media focus on it I’m not seeing much that will actually impact affordability in major ways.

You do realize there are more data sources available than statcan?

Home prices in much of southern Ontario have tripled since 2016. The average selling price in Welland went for 239K then, and is upwards of 750k now. These aren't anecdotes. This is data.

You're cherry picking (outdated) 2016 statistics to fit your contrarian narrative, but ignoring the context. Canadians are buying whatever homes they can afford out necessity because it is tremendously financially advantageous in the country to own real estate over renting. But they are spending more than ever before and moving further out to do so. Household debt is at record highs. Small communities like Welland do not have the inventory to absorb spillover from the GTA, which is why we're seeing exponential housing price growth. Again, not anecdotes.

[lio45]

Here's an example of a somewhat decent starting property for 2022:

https://duproprio.com/fr/estrie/st-ludge...2C-70.76843261718751&zoom=12#description

Sure, it's in a small town, but it's a nice Victorian 3-story multiplex, it's actually riverfront (not that that matters much), and it's got the Feds (post office) as a tenant (paying a hair under a grand a month).

If you can work remotely, you could live in one of the apts and collect rent from the other apts, the hair salon, and Canada Post (the sum of which >> your monthly mortgage payment).

My ex-gf works remotely now and her job has switched to permanently remote (i.e. it'll stay like this even after Covid is "over", if it ever is). She's in Sherbrooke and the job is in Quebec City. She's the kind of person who could buy that building and live there.

[MolsonExport]

^when is the due date?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

Here's an example of a somewhat decent starting property for 2022:

https://duproprio.com/fr/estrie/st-ludge...2C-70.76843261718751&zoom=12#description

Sure, it's in a small town, but it's a nice Victorian 3-story multiplex, it's actually riverfront (not that that matters much), and it's got the Feds (post office) as a tenant (paying a hair under a grand a month).

This would cost like 6-10x plus that amount basically anywhere in southern Ontario

I would say what's the catch?
Does it need foundation repair, a new boiler system, new roof, tens of thousands in repairs?

[Wigs]

"Hey, are you a buyer looking for an overpriced property in Niagara Falls? Then I have the dream listing for you"

Niagara Falls - $1,399,990
4 Bed, 3 Bath
2,473 sq ft

Description
Classy, Elegant and Contemporary. This Gorgeous beauty is Built by well know Local Builder in Niagara, Perrella Homes. Located in a beautiful Subdivision of Forestview. Stepping in through the front door into this bright and welcoming home, you will be overwhelmed with the layout and design.

A True Open Concept Flooded with natural light. Luxury Floors, Expansive Chandeliers, and gorgeous electric fireplace are sure to Impress but wait until you see the Heartbeat of this home, An Absolute Stunning Custom Kitchen, Extended cabinets all the way up to the ceiling with Crown Mouldings, Dazzling Quartz counters with Grey, Navy and Gold Accents and fine attention-to-details are just some of the ways to describe this Galore.

walking up on the Lovely Oak stairs you will find 4 spacious bedrooms, Main bath and A show-stopper – the primary bedroom is complete with a walk-in closet and ensuite featuring masterfully designed glass tiled shower, double vanity and Glamorous Free Standing Tub. cherry on the top is a Mesmeric Pond with walking trail is at your Door step. Book your showing today. (

Molson, are you mesmerized?
• Video Link
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24253399/9009-emily-boulevard-niagara-falls#inFullscreenMode

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

I'd say the cutoff is somewhere around 1990 (if we're talking just owning one house to live in). I was born in 1994, my Coworker was born in 1988. He bought a house in central Toronto for $700k when he was 28. My options at the same age start at about $1.5 million if you're lucky.

If you're talking about actually chaining together multiple real estate investments through refinancing your previous properties, you need a little more runway and the cutoff point is probably somewhere in the early to mid-eighties.

If you were born in the late 80s or early 90s then you were also probably dealing with the fallout from the 2008 recession either delaying or putting a damper on your earnings at the start of your career. There was a pretty small window where the economy had recovered but housing costs were still manageable.

Anyone I know in Toronto (or Vancouver) in that age group who owns their home will generally meet at least 2 or 3 of these conditions:

- Significantly above-average household income
- Parents who helped pay for it
- Own a tiny, shitty condo
- Bought in a far-flung suburb
- Spend most of their income on housing

Of course, the number of those conditions needing to be met has continued to rise over time. For anyone buying their first home now, you'd probably need to meet 4 or 5/5 of those.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Wigs

This would cost like 6-10x plus that amount basically anywhere in southern Ontario

I would say what's the catch?
Does it need foundation repair, a new boiler system, new roof, tens of thousands in repairs?

The catches are: you need a car; you'll drive for a while whenever you need to access "big city stuff"; you don't have world-class fresh authentic sushi at your doorstep.

But I'd much sooner live with all those drawbacks, than rent a cupboard under the stairs in Southern Ontario.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

... 5/5 of those.

"If you have significantly above-average household income, then if you're willing to spend most of your income on housing, you can probably hope to acquire a tiny, shitty condo in a far-flung suburb, provided your parents are able and willing to help pay for it"

Scary how close that is to NOT being an exaggeration anymore in Van/TO.