Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The CAQ thrives on its ambiguity. Sort of right on the economic front (but again, only when viewed through the traditionally leftward leaning [state interventionism] traditional Quebec model); sort of smack dab in the centre on the social front (again, from the traditionally leftward leaning yet highly nationalistic and secular Quebec model). Not pro-federalist, nor strongly pro or anti-independentiste, but highly nationalist and very much focused on the promoting the dominance of French and the Quebecois mainstream culture.

Reminds me of the Union Nationale under Duplessis.
It could rule forever.

The CAQ just tweaked the Quebec Liberal Party policies and made them more palatable to the majority of Quebecers. That meant doing the things you mentioned and also respecting minorities but not pandering to them.

Does the Legault CAQ remind me of what I've read about the Duplessis Union Nationale? Maybe in some ways but Legault is much kinder and gentler. Could they be in power for a long time? It's seems that way at this point but there are so many unknown factors about the future. How much longer will Legault be party leader and premier? Will there be party in-fighting after? Will there be corruption scandals? Etc.

[Kilgore Trout]

The CAQ is only ambiguous beyond its utter contempt for Montreal. It’s a grubby populist party that has no interest in a place that doesn’t vote for it, so it makes life miserable for the largest city in the province. The back and forth over the blue line is just one example. The high-handed way the CAQ handled the REM de l’Est is another. Not to mention the Île aux Tourtes bridge and a million smaller things.

The same thing is happening to Quebec City now that Bruno Marchand is mayor. The drama over the tramway is pathetic. When a provincial government alienates its two biggest cities, what then?

The CAQ is in power only because of first-past-the-post magic that gives parties with 35% support a majority in parliament. It wouldn’t take much for it to fall from power.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

The CAQ is only ambiguous beyond its utter contempt for Montreal. It’s a grubby populist party that has no interest in a place that doesn’t vote for it, so it makes life miserable for the largest city in the province. The back and forth over the blue line is just one example. The high-handed way the CAQ handled the REM de l’Est is another. Not to mention the Île aux Tourtes bridge and a million smaller things.

The same thing is happening to Quebec City now that Bruno Marchand is mayor. The drama over the tramway is pathetic. When a provincial government alienates its two biggest cities, what then?

The CAQ is in power only because of first-past-the-post magic that gives parties with 35% support a majority in parliament. It wouldn’t take much for it to fall from power.

And yet unless some catastrophe hits they are poised to make seat gains on Montreal island itself in October. The retirement from politics of a number of Liberal notables is not likely coincidental - word is that several PLQ members who represent iffy seats are lobbying to get parachuted into safer ridings in anticipation of this.

As for transit development, the Liberals were in power for about 13 of the past 20 years. What did they do during that time? The first stage of the REM? Sure I guess, but it's very much a suburban system, is it not? It doesn't do much for the areas of the inner city that have no rapid transit.

The métro blue line extension will actually be going ahead. Its prospects are looking better than they have since 1988 which is the last time the métro was expanded. How many Liberal governments since then?

The BRT system on Pie-IX is under construction and the REM2 to east end Montreal is something the government clearly wants to do. Yes there is political wrangling with the city but that's politics - and Valérie Plante is playing politics with this just as much as the CAQ is. It takes two to tango.

[MolsonExport]

The métro blue line extension will actually be going ahead. Its prospects are looking better than they have since 1988 which is the last time the métro was expanded. How many Liberal governments since then?

err, no.

On April 28, 2007, three new stations in Laval opened making it the second line to leave Montreal Island.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

err, no.

Sorry - you're right.

I meant the blue line but wrote it wrong.

Still off-island though. From the party that's supposed to be all about Montreal (the island).

[MolsonExport]

ok, yes, we have been waiting an eternity for a blue line extension. I recall in the 70s/early 80s when it appeared on metro maps (full length, but with black dots...which were revealed to indicate 'future stations')

[Acajack]

Those evil city-hating CAQ people just gave the green light to the tramway project in Quebec City - with no conditions. So the city can run the show.

https://www.journaldequebec.com/2022/04/06/la-caq-donne-le-feu-vert-au-projet-de-tramway-a-quebec-1

[MolsonExport]

This is a really big deal for QC.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

This is a really big deal for QC.

You're right. It has the potential to be one of the most transformative developments in the modern history of the city.

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

This is a really big deal for QC.

Yes indeed.

• Video Link

[Kilgore Trout]

I’m not sure why you think criticizing the CAQ means I’m stumping for the Liberals? They’re just as bad – they take Montreal for granted.

Also, the blue line only went ahead because the feds ponied up the money and the REM de l’Est is dead. The CAQ seemed poised to kill it otherwise. As for the Quebec tramway, I have no idea what has been the rationale for all the chaos over the past week, but obviously the provincial government has realized that it’s a losing battle to fight it. I am in no way convinced the CAQ actually supports the project, just that it has decided it isn’t politically expedient to oppose it anymore.

Don’t get me wrong, the CAQ will likely win the next election, but they don’t have any secret sauce. Their support is strong but precarious. As is the case with any populist party. All it takes is one issue for people to turn against them – like maybe the affordable housing crisis, which the CAQ insists isn’t happening but is affecting the regions as much as it is Montreal.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

I’m not sure why you think criticizing the CAQ means I’m stumping for the Liberals? They’re just as bad – they take Montreal for granted.

Also, the blue line only went ahead because the feds ponied up the money and the REM de l’Est is dead. The CAQ seemed poised to kill it otherwise. As for the Quebec tramway, I have no idea what has been the rationale for all the chaos over the past week, but obviously the provincial government has realized that it’s a losing battle to fight it. I am in no way convinced the CAQ actually supports the project, just that it has decided it isn’t politically expedient to oppose it anymore.

Don’t get me wrong, the CAQ will likely win the next election, but they don’t have any secret sauce. Their support is strong but precarious. As is the case with any populist party. All it takes is one issue for people to turn against them – like maybe the affordable housing crisis, which the CAQ insists isn’t happening but is affecting the regions as much as it is Montreal.

The CAQ isn't killing the REM de l'Est, NIMBYs are (and the city of Montréal isn't too keen to defend it because they don't get to run the whole show on that project).

People who cares the most about social housing usually don't vote for the CAQ anyway, if there is a danger for the CAQ it comes from Eric Duhaime's conservatives (and They probably don't care at all about social housing).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

I’m not sure why you think criticizing the CAQ means I’m stumping for the Liberals? They’re just as bad – they take Montreal for granted.

Also, the blue line only went ahead because the feds ponied up the money and the REM de l’Est is dead. The CAQ seemed poised to kill it otherwise. As for the Quebec tramway, I have no idea what has been the rationale for all the chaos over the past week, but obviously the provincial government has realized that it’s a losing battle to fight it. I am in no way convinced the CAQ actually supports the project, just that it has decided it isn’t politically expedient to oppose it anymore.

Don’t get me wrong, the CAQ will likely win the next election, but they don’t have any secret sauce. Their support is strong but precarious. As is the case with any populist party. All it takes is one issue for people to turn against them – like maybe the affordable housing crisis, which the CAQ insists isn’t happening but is affecting the regions as much as it is Montreal.

I honestly don't know which party has much of a solid base in Quebec anymore.

I think the party with the most members is the new Parti Conservateur. And believe or not the PQ is probably near the top as well and might even be first for the amount of donations they get.

The CAQ is near the top too, and the Liberals are actually at the bottom for both memberships and donations.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

Don’t get me wrong, the CAQ will likely win the next election, but they don’t have any secret sauce.

The main ingredient (not secret) is the weakness of all adversaries at the moment. Not a single party other than the CAQ has anywhere near the support needed to hope to win most FPTP ridings these days.

[Acajack]

The Outaouais is the biggest Liberal bastion in Quebec outside of certain parts of western Montreal.

Right now the Qc125 site has my riding of Chapleau with the CAQ leading the Liberals by 40-29. We have a very low-visibility CAQ member.

In Hull which has a long-standing Liberal member the CAQ leads 34-27 without a CAQ candidate being named.

[Kilgore Trout]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

The CAQ isn't killing the REM de l'Est, NIMBYs are (and the city of Montréal isn't too keen to defend it because they don't get to run the whole show on that project).

Yes, the CAQ is very keen on the REM in general, and if the REM de l'Est hadn't run into such trouble they would have used it as an excuse to cancel or seriously scale back the blue line extension.

But you can't just blame NIMBYs for the REM de l'Est's failure. Yes, there is a lot of NIMBYism involved in the opposition, especially with regards to the elevated structure. But there are also very legitimate concerns. The ARTM report was damning because the REM sidesteps all regional transportation planning, and on top of that the CDPQ is opaque and unaccountable. Its last-ditch effort to make the REM de l'Est more palatable relied entirely on new public spaces and infrastructure that it wasn't going to pay for, with no funding commitment for Montreal to actually build those nice new spaces around stations and along the tracks. Plus, the REM de l'Est doesn't even connect with REM1, which is weird.

I'm excited for the REM1 to open, but I can't ignore its fundamental problems. It's operated a bit like a Ponzi scheme – if the CDPQ doesn't meet its own revenue projections, the government is on the hook for making up the difference. And while CDPQ Infra is a subsidiary of a crown corporation, it operates with no public oversight, and it has the right to eventually flip the REM to a private investor, so we could end up with a 100% private transit system over which the government has very little control.

tl;dr, the CAQ really has no one but itself to blame for the failure of the REM de l'Est, because they hitched an important transit project onto a dubious and increasingly unpopular investment scheme. If the government had simply ponied up $10 billion for a light metro system that would be operated by the STM, I doubt there would have been half as much opposition.

[Kilgore Trout]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I honestly don't know which party has much of a solid base in Quebec anymore.

I think the party with the most members is the new Parti Conservateur. And believe or not the PQ is probably near the top as well and might even be first for the amount of donations they get.

The CAQ is near the top too, and the Liberals are actually at the bottom for both memberships and donations.

The CAQ seems really scared of the Parti conservateur, but is it justified? Aside from Claire Samson, are any ridings in play? I'm not even sure if Éric Duhaime can win in Chauveau, which is historically a swing riding and not a sure bet for anyone.

Then again, with so many parties in the mix, it wouldn't take much for there to be surprises in a number of different ridings.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

The CAQ seems really scared of the Parti conservateur, but is it justified? Aside from Claire Samson, are any ridings in play? I'm not even sure if Éric Duhaime can win in Chauveau, which is historically a swing riding and not a sure bet for anyone.

Then again, with so many parties in the mix, it wouldn't take much for there to be surprises in a number of different ridings.

The Conservateurs have been riding mostly on COVID frustration. It's doubtful that if the déconfinement becomes permanent that this will still be as big a source of frustration in October.

There will still be some lingering bitterness of course but not likely enough to threaten the CAQ.

A dubious poll recently put the Conservateurs at 24% which I find hard to believe. Or at least not sustainable at all. Most polls put them in the 15-18% range.

My guess is that as pandemic angst subsides they'll stabilize somewhere between 10-15%, maybe on the low end of that.

[lio45]

PLQ: ~15-20%
PQ: ~15-20%
QS: ~15-20%
PCQ: ~15-20%
CAQ: FPTP Landslide

[MolsonExport]

so the PQ changed their logo? I never loved the old logo, but the new one really sucks.





This is a powerful Quebec logo, pardon the pun


Scary logo: