PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[skyhigh07]

One final point, it’s possible to integrate bad news with a general positive outlook for the city. You don’t have to immediately dismiss the negatives as meaningless or irrelevant. You can say “wow that really sucks but it’s just one piece of the puzzle” and I think the goal of this thread for most of us is trying to interpret the overall picture that comes together from those various pieces. THATS ALL IM SAYING. Controversial no? Lol.

[Skintreesnail]

This is a few days ago at 23 and cherry

[Knight Hospitaller]

.

[Knight Hospitaller]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

One final point, it’s possible to integrate bad news with a general positive outlook for the city. You don’t have to immediately dismiss the negatives as meaningless or irrelevant. You can say “wow that really sucks but it’s just one piece of the puzzle” and I think the goal of this thread for most of us is trying to interpret the overall picture that comes together from those various pieces. THATS ALL IM SAYING. Controversial no? Lol.

Too much "us vs. them," "light side vs. dark side," hyper polarization and group think. It's always either/or, never both/and. Complexity, nuance, and context go out the window (which is already an inherent problem with email/text/forum post communications).

[PurpleWhiteOut]

Originally Posted by summersm343

2700-2734 N. Broad Street



Listing on LoopNet here:
https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/2700-2734-N-Broad-St-Philadelphia-PA/21693476/

I'm really looking forward to this! It says the space will be available in August, so hopefully we'll hear something soon. It would be interesting if some of the biotech/pharma on the industrial production side go in here like the kinds of things the Budd plant is targeting in the future. Or if Temple Health could use some new research space.

To me this building is kind of like the "Divine Lorraine" of the area that has so much potential.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

Buddy, did I say any of that? Is it crazy to assume the middle of the road perspective and to be skeptical of both extremes that the city is “spiraling” or that it’s poised to “light the place on fire”??

It’s also frustrating that most if not all of us on here probably live in the best parts of the city. I just read an article that a 15 year old who was struck by a stray bullet up in Wissinoming isn’t expected to survive. His family said they’re moving out of the neighborhood. It’s heartbreaking. And then all of us on here act shocked and scoff when we hear that the city potentially lost 20k people. It’s a very “let them eat cake in those unfashionable places” kind of mentality. But stop being a such downer right?

Look, I’m still cautiously optimistic about Philly and I love it here, but I think it’s important to remember not everyone lives in a glass condo tower.

he responds like that a lot whenever anyone offers any realism in terms of evaluating where things stand. Statistics or numbers cant tell the whole story. The idea that there arent any serious issues in Philly because the housing market is tight or because apt occupancy is 97% is absurd. Those metrics are similar throughout the country- it doesn't prove that a city or an area is beyond criticism.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by cardeza

he responds like that a lot whenever anyone offers any realism in terms of evaluating where things stand. Statistics or numbers cant tell the whole story. The idea that there arent any serious issues in Philly because the housing market is tight or because apt occupancy is 97% is absurd. Those metrics are similar throughout the country- it doesn't prove that a city or an area is beyond criticism.

I don't think it's a matter of realism at all. I think it's a matter of optimism VS. pessimism.

I've agreed 100% that the ongoing gun violence is an issue that needs to be addressed immediately. Go back and look at my posts. I've said it many times.

What I think needs further observation and should not be drawing such a strong, dramatic reaction right now is:

1. The slight population loss during a global pandemic. You cannot use one year as a sample and say "the city is losing population." That's not how statistics, research, science, ANYTHING works.... you need a larger sample size. These numbers are also ESTIMATES and the census has proven time and time again that it's yearly estimates are usually pretty off, and only the decennial census counts are more accurate. Plus, almost every major US city has experienced "population loss" during the pandemic and there are many signs to point to it being a temporary decline and that Philadelphia may have already rebounded (the housing and apartment market being so tight).

2. The worry that somehow Philadelphia is going to collapse as a city if 100% of employers do not require their employees to return to the office. Philadelphia already has a less centralized job market than places like Boston, San Francisco, etc. Center City is very residential - it will be OK. Also, to think that other cities around the world will not be in the same predicament is silly. 65% of employees polled said they will look for new jobs if their employer requires them to return to work full time. We're probably entering a world where the majority of employers are going to offer either part-time or full-time work from home if their job can be done remotely. This is something Philadelphia is just going to have to figure out and pivot... as it has many times in the past.

I just think Philadelphian's can be very negative and pessimistic about their city a lot of the time. I'm not saying Philadelphia is 100% perfect, and there are certainly things that need to be addressed (gun violence and crime, poverty, blight, public schools, infrastructure, Kensington drug market).... but there are A LOT of positive things happening in Philadelphia too (life sciences is taking off, the city has really never looked better in our lifetimes, there is new construction everywhere, the restaurant market is rebounding, Philadelphia is one of the most walkable cities in the US and has many, many beautiful neighorhoods and areas, the housing market and apartment market are very tight proving people want to live here, etc. etc.)....

Philadelphia just has to continue address QOL issues to attract people to the city and make people WANT to live there, and I promise you it will be OK in a changing world where remote work is going to be more common and people will pick to live in an exciting place they love instead of live in a place for the sole reason to be close to their job.

[summersm343]

More proof that Philadelphia has an INCOME & JOBS problem, not an affordability problem:

City - Average Studio Rent - Percent of monthly income spent on rent

San Francisco - $2,470 - 22.45%
New York City - $2,450 - 36.99%
Boston - $2,250 - 30.8%
Washington DC - $1,958 - 24.52%
Miami - $1,800 - 37.24%
San Diego - $1,750 - 26.87%
San Jose - $1,725 - 21.64%
Atlanta - $1,718 - 27%
Oakland - $1,700 - 24.13%
Raleigh - $1,691 - 31.86%
Los Angeles - $1,550 - 25.75%
Austin - $1,452 - 23.34%
Charlotte - $1,450 - 27.88%
Houston - $1,449 - 28.04%
Dallas - $1,427 - 26.45%
Seattle - $1,395 - 18.67%
Long Beach - $1,395 - 25.46%
Denver - $1,384 - 22.79%
Nashville - $1,350 - 26.35%
Chicago - $1,350 - 23.58%
Sacramento - $1,350 - 26.08%
Virginia Beach - $1,350 - 25.03%
New Orleans - $1,269 - 32.82%
Fort Worth - $1,264 - 27.01%
Baltimore - $1,250 - 27.14%
Philadelphia - $1,235 - 28.4%
Portland - $1,229 - 21.48%
Mesa - $1,207 - 28.11%
Jacksonville - $1,100 - 26.22%
San Antonio - $1,088 - 27.11%
Phoenix - $1,080 - 23.15%
Memphis - $1,000 - 27.24%
Minneapolis - $958 - 17.85%
Las Vegas - $950 - 21.25%
Fresno - $950 - 23.82%
Detroit - $888 - 29.7%
Colorado Springs - $875 - 19.76%
Indianapolis - $812 - 20.35%
Omaha - $795 - 19.28%
Kansas City - $791 - 17.86%
Arlington - $790 - 19.03%
Milwaukee - $780 - 21.55%
Louisville - $769 - 20%
Oklahoma City - $723 - 17.2%
Tucson - $700 - 20.29%
Albuquerque - $700 - 17.14%
Tulsa - $695 - 17.62%
El Paso - $670 - 19.02%
Columbus - $625 - $17%
Wichita - $500 - 13.63%

https://www.cosmopolitan.com/career/g386...es-united-states-single-person/?slide=50

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by summersm343

More proof that Philadelphia has an INCOME & JOBS problem, not an affordability problem:

City - Average Studio Rent - Percent of monthly income spent on rent

San Francisco - $2,470 - 22.45%
New York City - $2,450 - 36.99%
Boston - $2,250 - 30.8%
Washington DC - $1,958 - 24.52%
Miami - $1,800 - 37.24%
San Diego - $1,750 - 26.87%
San Jose - $1,725 - 21.64%
Atlanta - $1,718 - 27%
Oakland - $1,700 - 24.13%
Raleigh - $1,691 - 31.86%
Los Angeles - $1,550 - 25.75%
Austin - $1,452 - 23.34%
Charlotte - $1,450 - 27.88%
Houston - $1,449 - 28.04%
Dallas - $1,427 - 26.45%
Seattle - $1,395 - 18.67%
Long Beach - $1,395 - 25.46%
Denver - $1,384 - 22.79%
Nashville - $1,350 - 26.35%
Chicago - $1,350 - 23.58%
Sacramento - $1,350 - 26.08%
Virginia Beach - $1,350 - 25.03%
New Orleans - $1,269 - 32.82%
Fort Worth - $1,264 - 27.01%
Baltimore - $1,250 - 27.14%
Philadelphia - $1,235 - 28.4%
Portland - $1,229 - 21.48%
Mesa - $1,207 - 28.11%
Jacksonville - $1,100 - 26.22%
San Antonio - $1,088 - 27.11%
Phoenix - $1,080 - 23.15%
Memphis - $1,000 - 27.24%
Minneapolis - $958 - 17.85%
Las Vegas - $950 - 21.25%
Fresno - $950 - 23.82%
Detroit - $888 - 29.7%
Colorado Springs - $875 - 19.76%
Indianapolis - $812 - 20.35%
Omaha - $795 - 19.28%
Kansas City - $791 - 17.86%
Arlington - $790 - 19.03%
Milwaukee - $780 - 21.55%
Louisville - $769 - 20%
Oklahoma City - $723 - 17.2%
Tucson - $700 - 20.29%
Albuquerque - $700 - 17.14%
Tulsa - $695 - 17.62%
El Paso - $670 - 19.02%
Columbus - $625 - $17%
Wichita - $500 - 13.63%

https://www.cosmopolitan.com/career/g386...es-united-states-single-person/?slide=50

But the warzone areas are driving the averages downward. Do a search for studios in desirable areas, you'll see $2000-3000 per month. The whole country is suffering from an affordability problem right now (if you want to have your mind blown look at some of the prices in parts of Mississippi right now) but you keep repeating a mantra that is not accurate once you start peeling back the layers. The factors:

- Philly has large city limits [for Northeast standards].
- Philly has many areas that are an absolute mess.
- Desirable areas can be a block to block situation and in turn smaller than the whole.

I'm not knocking the progress and there's some bright spots but a lot of what you are seeing now is speculation vs actual success; building the buildings is the first step, occupying them is another. I've seen some nice shiny new buildings in the 'burbs remain empty until just recently and were only filled because of enticing move in offers and the housing shortage picking up steam. Once the dust settles I have my doubts about their occupancy rates.

I'm one of the people still leaning towards this is going to work out for Philly but I do have to acknowledge that this is a delicate balance right now and if the city keeps screwing up it won't go in the right direction.

[reparcsyks]

Originally Posted by summersm343

More proof that Philadelphia has an INCOME & JOBS problem, not an affordability problem:

City - Average Studio Rent - Percent of monthly income spent on rent

San Francisco - $2,470 - 22.45%
New York City - $2,450 - 36.99%
Boston - $2,250 - 30.8%
Washington DC - $1,958 - 24.52%
Miami - $1,800 - 37.24%
San Diego - $1,750 - 26.87%
San Jose - $1,725 - 21.64%
Atlanta - $1,718 - 27%
Oakland - $1,700 - 24.13%
Raleigh - $1,691 - 31.86%
Los Angeles - $1,550 - 25.75%
Austin - $1,452 - 23.34%
Charlotte - $1,450 - 27.88%
Houston - $1,449 - 28.04%
Dallas - $1,427 - 26.45%
Seattle - $1,395 - 18.67%
Long Beach - $1,395 - 25.46%
Denver - $1,384 - 22.79%
Nashville - $1,350 - 26.35%
Chicago - $1,350 - 23.58%
Sacramento - $1,350 - 26.08%
Virginia Beach - $1,350 - 25.03%
New Orleans - $1,269 - 32.82%
Fort Worth - $1,264 - 27.01%
Baltimore - $1,250 - 27.14%
Philadelphia - $1,235 - 28.4%
Portland - $1,229 - 21.48%
Mesa - $1,207 - 28.11%
Jacksonville - $1,100 - 26.22%
San Antonio - $1,088 - 27.11%
Phoenix - $1,080 - 23.15%
Memphis - $1,000 - 27.24%
Minneapolis - $958 - 17.85%
Las Vegas - $950 - 21.25%
Fresno - $950 - 23.82%
Detroit - $888 - 29.7%
Colorado Springs - $875 - 19.76%
Indianapolis - $812 - 20.35%
Omaha - $795 - 19.28%
Kansas City - $791 - 17.86%
Arlington - $790 - 19.03%
Milwaukee - $780 - 21.55%
Louisville - $769 - 20%
Oklahoma City - $723 - 17.2%
Tucson - $700 - 20.29%
Albuquerque - $700 - 17.14%
Tulsa - $695 - 17.62%
El Paso - $670 - 19.02%
Columbus - $625 - $17%
Wichita - $500 - 13.63%

https://www.cosmopolitan.com/career/g386...es-united-states-single-person/?slide=50

Moving to Wichita!

[PHLtoNYC]

And here we go...

Bill establishing affordable housing overlay in University City enacted into law, decried as illegal

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia...ted-that-affordable-housing-overlay.html

"A controversial bill establishing an overlay restricting the redevelopment of an affordable housing complex at 3900 Market St. in West Philadelphia has been adopted into law."

"The bill was passed by City Council on March 10 and became law March 24 without Democratic Mayor Jim Kenney’s signature. The bill created an affordable housing overlay district that encompassed just 3900 Market St. and prevents non-residential development on the property."

"Days after the bill was adopted by City Council, the owners of 3900 Market St., an affiliate of Altman Group going under the name IBID Associates L.P., filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania challenging its validity. It called the bill governmental overreach and contends it prevents IBID Associates from exercising its property rights, according to court documents."

"“Mayor Kenney’s decision to permit [the bill] to become law sends a chilling message about doing business in Philadelphia,” IBID Associates said in a separate statement once the bill became law. “Any major development project can be scuttled at any point in the process, depending on the whim of the district councilmember. In our view, the mayor’s decision not to actually sign the bill reflects the reality that [the bill] is illegal and unenforceable.”"

[summersm343]

Everyone in Philadelphia thank Jamie Gauthier and City Council for wasting your tax payer dollars.

[ok-ez]

Temple health doesn't appear to do much research, not that I know anything about it. Anyone know otherwise other than cancer research at fox chase? And they have a poor history of tearing down cool building on the hospital campus https://hiddencityphila.org/2015/03/a-look-at-temple-universitys-demolition-history/ but the area is looking up I see work starting on the beury building.

Originally Posted by PurpleWhiteOut

I'm really looking forward to this! It says the space will be available in August, so hopefully we'll hear something soon. It would be interesting if some of the biotech/pharma on the industrial production side go in here like the kinds of things the Budd plant is targeting in the future. Or if Temple Health could use some new research space.

To me this building is kind of like the "Divine Lorraine" of the area that has so much potential.

[ScreamShatter]

Temple does a lot of research. Just to name one news worthy mention, they’ve got a huge trial for HIV that has been internationally recognized for years now.

https://medicine.temple.edu/news/first-c...-breakthrough-research-lewis-katz-school

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

Temple does a lot of research. Just to name one news worthy mention, they’ve got a huge trial for HIV that has been internationally recognized for years now.

https://medicine.temple.edu/news/first-c...-breakthrough-research-lewis-katz-school

Universities are ranked by the Carnegie Classification, which determines how much research is performed along with how much funding school's get from the NIH. Temple is a Research 1 university, which is the highest tier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re...%E2%80%93_Very_high_research_activity%22

[iheartphilly]

^
In reference to the HIV trial: https://medicine.temple.edu/news/first-c...-breakthrough-research-lewis-katz-school

https://reporter.nih.gov/search/JbRgAtch...-breakthrough-research-lewis-katz-school

Temple does research but I think it pales in comparison to Penn and Drexel.

See here for where the NIH grant money goes: Penn got over $800 million for comparison

https://reporter.nih.gov/search/JbRgAtchAUKHOoW2X1vObQ/projects/map/?states=PA

[allovertown]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

Honestly, I’m tired of people pretending like everything’s okay when it really isn’t. It’s hard to know expectations or where things really stand. If I had nickel…

I did read the article and I don’t necessarily see the silver lining. A lot of the projected economic recovery for Center Center was dependent on surpassing certain “return to office” thresholds. It was predicted in several CCD reports that not meeting those thresholds could have severe consequences for the local economy. Well, we may likely be at the worst case scenario. And a lot of local retailers continue to close because of lost office worker foot traffic.

The reality is cities can stagnate and fall into decline rather quickly. We’re at a crucial crossroads in terms of coming out of a pandemic, dealing with a crime wave and maneuvering through an unpredictable economy. I’m not generally a negative person and of course there are bright spots, but now more than ever is a good time to be critical especially considering the current leadership at the helm. That’s all I’ll say.

I think you need to zoom out a bit. My neighborhood right outside of center city is fucking booming. People are everywhere. Businesses are thriving.

A lot of the issues with retail in center city is not because there is not enough people to frequent businesses. It's because businesses are oriented toward serving a specific niche like a work lunch crowd that no longer exists how it did previously. And mostly, just in general, rents are way too high. And there is no longer the foot traffic to sustain such an insane rent. But just because the foot traffic can no longer justify a rent that 5x greater than a similar space outside of center city, that doesn't necessarily mean there is a problem with the foot traffic in center city.

Why is my neighborhood thriving and center city struggling? There are still a lot more people walking around center city than my neighborhood. So clearly foot traffic alone is not the issue. I mean honestly, maybe businesses in my neighborhood are doing so well, because there are more people working from home now instead of heading over to center city. People are still eating lunch. People are still buying things. People are still frequenting businesses.

Is it really the worst thing in the world that maybe the Center City retail landscape needs to adjust to this new reality? Regardless, pushing businesses to go back full time in office is just stupid. It's not happening. Nothing is to be gained by wasting effort to get back to a past that is never returning. The cities that respond to this the best won't be the cities that try the hardest to return to the past, it will be the cities that work the hardest at moving forward in this new dynamic and taking advantage of it.

People want to live here. People want to work here. People want to eat and shop here. Less people might want to commute to center city for work and get lunch there. You need to recognize this for the minor problem that it is. People who think Philadelphia is stagnating or falling into decline... I just can't even imagine what you're thinking. It's so far from my lived experience in this city across 4 decades.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by allovertown

I think you need to zoom out a bit. My neighborhood right outside of center city is fucking booming. People are everywhere. Businesses are thriving.

A lot of the issues with retail in center city is not because there is not enough people to frequent businesses. It's because businesses are oriented toward serving a specific niche like a work lunch crowd that no longer exists how it did previously. And mostly, just in general, rents are way too high. And there is no longer the foot traffic to sustain such an insane rent. But just because the foot traffic can no longer justify a rent that 5x greater than a similar space outside of center city, that doesn't necessarily mean there is a problem with the foot traffic in center city.

Why is my neighborhood thriving and center city struggling? There are still a lot more people walking around center city than my neighborhood. So clearly foot traffic alone is not the issue. I mean honestly, maybe businesses in my neighborhood are doing so well, because there are more people working from home now instead of heading over to center city. People are still eating lunch. People are still buying things. People are still frequenting businesses.

Is it really the worst thing in the world that maybe the Center City retail landscape needs to adjust to this new reality? Regardless, pushing businesses to go back full time in office is just stupid. It's not happening. Nothing is to be gained by wasting effort to get back to a past that is never returning. The cities that respond to this the best won't be the cities that try the hardest to return to the past, it will be the cities that work the hardest at moving forward in this new dynamic and taking advantage of it.

People want to live here. People want to work here. People want to eat and shop here. Less people might want to commute to center city for work and get lunch there. You need to recognize this for the minor problem that it is. People who think Philadelphia is stagnating or falling into decline... I just can't even imagine what you're thinking. It's so far from my lived experience in this city across 4 decades.

Agree with all of your points.

I can honestly say I've never seen the city looking so good.

Is there areas that are not well off? For sure... but there's no doubt in my mind Philadelphia is on a positive trajectory. I'm not sure who can realistically say otherwise if you spend any time at all in the city. The past few months in particular have been INSANE. I've never seen so much foot traffic in Rittenhouse Square on these nice days.

My wife and I just went to Fishtown ON A TUESDAY for dinner and had a hard time getting a reservation. We ended up eating at Cheu (which was fantastic by the way) and grabbing cocktails at Kensington Quarters and R&D but Frankford Avenue was packed with people and all the restaurants were too. I can't ever remember a time where that would be true for Fishtown on a Tuesday.

The only spots in Center City that I've noticed that are struggling are Market West/JFK and Walnut Street from Broad to 18th. We know Walnut Street will almost be fully occupied by this time next year. There will be few vacancies by spring of next year with the slew of leases.

That basically leaves Market West and JFK which will come back overtime as owner's of buildings on these streets will just have to shift for the future. Those office buildings aren't going anywhere. 75%+ of the employers will still have part time or full time employees in those buildings. Some will downsize office space needs or sublease space... sure, but eventually those towers will be fully occupied again with companies and employees.

[PHL10]

Originally Posted by allovertown

Regardless, pushing businesses to go back full time in office is just stupid. It's not happening. Nothing is to be gained by wasting effort to get back to a past that is never returning.

I don’t think anyone should be pushing anyone to do anything but I think the jury is still out on whether WFH for a majority of white collar jobs is viable in the long term. This is a new phenomenon and I don’t think we really understand what the potential downsides could be at this moment.

[iheartphilly]

business offices or what I call "activity cages" are not going back five days a week; 8hrs a workday. WFH will be available for folks that can do their work with a laptop and zoom or teams. Realistically, a hybrid setup of going in the office and working from home will be the norm and offered by employers for careers that can be done this way. The other situation is 100% WFH which may be on the table from some employers depending on what you do exactly.