PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

I mean, I appreciate the optimism, but trying to spin population loss as a good sign is the epitome of wishful thinking. Also, the “conservative” counties that gained population last year will be “behind the curb” in terms of working from home? Why? Lol. Also, none of the metros you listed are “conservative” btw. They’re just in more right leaning states.

I agree in the abstract that’s it’s not as bad as NYC, Chicago, SF etc and there are obviously bright spots but I think it’s important to acknowledge the loss is unfortunate and real. I get every cloud has a silver lining but what exactly would be bad news then?

However, I agree things can be turned around and the proof will be in pudding of the trend continues next year, but it’ll largely be dependent on if the city can tack back to the center on some of the quality of life and public safety issues.

The truth is always somewhere in the middle of two extremes.

There's no doubt cities like Philadelphia took a disproportionate brunt of the pandemic's social/economic fallout. Perceptions about quality-of-life issues are also very real and have to be addressed. There's essentially unanimity on that point.

But I think what's so irksome is this notion that a very large, incredibly diverse and literally centuries-tested city--one that has faced decades worth of economic and social challenges (including worse economic and crime conditions)--suddenly will not continue to be resilient. Especially a under a macroeconomic scenario, which was not even the fault of or in any shape or form unique to Philadelphia.

Bottom line: it's valid to have concerns, but so many people need to calm the **** down.

If anyone thinks the obsessive hand-wringing and concern trolling on social media is a good strategy that is constructive to the city's recovery, they're incredibly mistaken.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

I mean, I appreciate the optimism, but trying to spin population loss as a good sign is the epitome of wishful thinking. Also, the “conservative” counties that gained population last year will be “behind the curb” in terms of working from home? Why? Lol. Also, none of the metros you listed are “conservative” btw. They’re just in more right leaning states.

I agree in the abstract that’s it’s not as bad as NYC, Chicago, SF etc and there are obviously bright spots but I think it’s important to acknowledge the loss is unfortunate and real. I get every cloud has a silver lining but what exactly would be bad news then?

Dude. It's population loss during a global pandemic. Seriously. Nobody is saying it's a good thing, but it's not like it's under normal circumstances.

Did we all get amnesia and forget what happened in 2020?

The population "loss" was realistically mainly students not living in their dorms/not living in off campus housing, renters likely not renewing their leases and moving in with mom and dad temporarily, and wealthy city dwellers moving to their beach houses, vacation homes, or palatial suburban or country estates. Are there people that moved out of the city for good during the pandemic? For sure. Are there people that bought their homes and moved in? Absolutely.

There are signs that Philadelphia already regained the population it lost during the pandemic or has come close to regaining that population.

Furthermore, almost every central county in every large metro area lost population during the pandemic.

New York County (Manhattan) - 6.9% decline
San Francisco County - 6.7% decline
Kings County (Brooklyn) - 3.5% decline
Suffolk County (Boston) - 3.3% decline
Bronx County - 3.2% decline
Queens County - 3.1% decline
District of Columbia - 2.8% decline
Santa Clara County (San Jose) - 2.6% decline
Cook County (Chicago) - 1.9% decline
Los Angeles County - 1.8% decline
Philadelphia County - 1.7% decline
Davidson County (Nashville) - 1.7% decline
Multnomah County (Portland) - 1.5% decline
Miami-Dade County - 1.4% decline
Dallas County - 1.1% decline
Hennepin County (Minneapolis) - 1.1% decline
King County (Seattle) - 0.8% decline
Marion County (Indianapolis) - 0.6% decline
Denver County - 0.6% decline
Richmond County (Staten Island) - 0.5% decline
San Diego County - 0.4% decline
Franklin County (Columbus) - 0.2% decline
Harris County (the county Houston is located in) - 0.1% decline
Fulton County (Atlanta) - 0.1% decline

Should I keep going?

The only central core counties with major cities in them that INCREASED in population are:
Maricopa County (Phoenix and surrounding suburbs - which isn't really a city anyways)
Bexar County (which includes San Antonio and surrounding suburbs)
Travis County (which includes Austin and surrounding suburbs)
Duval County (which includes Jacksonville and surrounding suburbs)
Tarrant County (Forth Worth, Texas and surrounding burbs)
Mecklenburg County (Charlotte and surrounding burbs)
Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City and surrounding burbs)
El Paso County (El Paso city and surrounding burbs)

All of this info from the US Census Bureau:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/hennepincountyminnesota/PST045221

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

You actually think there are 25K fewer people here now than there were a year ago?

You have to be smoking crack. Everyone acknowledges it was the case at a very specific moment in time in the pandemic. And everyone acknowledges middle class black families are generally leaving the city and it needs to be addressed.

I don't think anyone believes there are 25K fewer people in Philadelphia NOW compared to March 2020. That's an insane assessment in a city where there is construction everywhere and a 3% vacancy rate for apartments. I live in a new construction neighborhood where things are selling so fast (600 homes between 2 developers) that they just bought another 12 or so acres abutting our site to build another 300 homes. That's 900 houses on a plot that didn't exist 2 years ago.

Well, frankly I’d rather trust the census report than some dude who apparently is the self anointed arbitrator of reality on a message forum lol.

Just because your fancy and/or gentrifying neighborhood is booming doesn’t mean neighborhoods that are miles away that you’d presumably never dare step foot in aren’t experiencing serious issues and population loss. Although, as noted it could be partially due to college student absence and people fleeing to second homes. Then again, it will seems a little odd that massive population losses in places like Manhattan and Chicago are mostly attributed to empty dorm rooms and wealthy people having a long vacating in The Hamptons.

Good Lord people! Think objectively!

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

The truth is always somewhere in the middle of two extremes.

This is essentially what I’m trying to get at. I’ve never been one to consider every negative development as an indication that the city is going to pot, but I’m also not going to spin that every negative is irrelevant and that everything is actually fine and dandy.

I actually think it’s important to be critical. And I think it’s a good character trait for a city to be critical. It keeps expectations high or otherwise people become complacent and you end up with shiteholes like LA or SF.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

Well, frankly I’d rather trust the census report than some dude who apparently is the self anointed arbitrator of reality on a message forum lol.

Just because your fancy and/or gentrifying neighborhood is booming doesn’t mean neighborhoods that are miles away that you’d presumably never dare step foot in aren’t experiencing serious issues and population loss.

Good Lord people! Think objectively!

I am thinking "objectively".

What's objectively true about the yearly census bureau methodology is that it chronically undercounts cities. This has been discussed ad nauseum and has been verified in the two most recent decennial (real) counts. In fact, this yearly "count" by the census predicted that Philadelphia *lost* population for the first time in a decade in 2019 and what do you know, when the count came in, it miraculously gained almost 20K people in a year when the census bureau said it lost a couple thousand. So the order of magnitude of the "estimate" for Philadelphia was to undercount it by about 20K people.

So this is the same methodology. It's chronically incorrect for Philadelphia year over year but yes, lets all of a sudden trust it because you said so.

Meanwhile. Rents are up in NYC about 20% this year but the sky is falling because EVERYONE is leaving.

Counter narrative:

Not only are most people who left cities during the pandemic returning, but they're arriving with 2 years worth of newly minted adults post college who started their careers remotely and are now descending on the cities where their offices are located to start their in person/hybrid stints.

And guess what? It's an f*ton of people to move at one time.

[TempleGuy1000]

I'm much more concerned about that employer survey from the Business Journal than the population estimates. That shows Philly being an outlier in a very bad way.

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I am thinking "objectively".

What's objectively true about the yearly census bureau methodology is that it chronically undercounts cities. This has been discussed ad nauseum and has been verified in the two most recent decennial (real) counts. In fact, this yearly "count" by the census predicted that Philadelphia *lost* population for the first time in a decade in 2019 and what do you know, when the count came in, it miraculously gained almost 20K people in a year when the census bureau said it lost a couple thousand. So the order of magnitude of the "estimate" for Philadelphia was to undercount it by about 20K people.

So this is the same methodology. It's chronically incorrect for Philadelphia year over year but yes, lets all of a sudden trust it because you said so.

Meanwhile. Rents are up in NYC about 20% this year but the sky is falling because EVERYONE is leaving.

Counter narrative:

Not only are most people who left cities during the pandemic returning, but they're arriving with 2 years worth of newly minted adults post college who started their careers remotely and are now descending on the cities where their offices are located to start their in person/hybrid stints.

And guess what? It's an f*ton of people to move at one time.

I don’t know! Who’d you rather me believe? An unreliable census report or the narrative of someone who’s pieced a few data points together and has a history of calling half the people on this forum “racist” at the drop of a hat?

[skyhigh07]

Here’s thing… it’s like political polling. When we don’t like it, the counters must be wrong. If Philly gained 20k, I’m sure we’d be saying “This is great news! The census people must have corrected their assessment methods!” It’s confirmation bias.

Like someone mentioned before, the truth is probably somewhat in the middle. That’s all I’m saying here.

[iheartphilly]

if interested, look at this to your heart's pitter patter, it's outdated and from 2019, but when the new one comes out, it's another indicator to consider.

https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/Top...ul-No-1-Destination-City-for-2019-21556/

My guess is the ranking for Philly will certainly climb up in ranking.

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by Londonee

It says back to work "Full Time" - the fact that ANY major-player employer would go back Full-Time in the near-future seems to be a death-blow to talent retention. So many companies are offering hybrid returns (Google for example is doing in the office T, W, R, and @Home Monday and Friday) that to be so dogmatic about 100% full time is just not going to win you many fans....

Frankly, I'd love to see something like the Google model become the "new normal." Cities would be their usual bustling self during these days - with workers, traveling consultants, engagements all crammed in to Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Friday would see less business crowds, but the city always benefits from the typical pre-weekend energy. Weekends are obviously always crowded here. Then Monday's would be the sleepy day to recover. Retail could adjust its hours to reflect this and capitalize.

Part of the problem is that a lot of local retailers have accrued debt. Simply adjusting hours for reduced foot traffic isn’t going to make up for fixed projected expenditures. This is the reason why a lot of decades old mom and pop stores are going under in the city right now. And expect the trend to continue if Philly is significantly underperforming for returning to work full time.

[summersm343]

^^Dude, look at life more positively. I promise you things will feel better when you do. What’s with the dose of negativity today?

Also, did you read that full Philadelphia employer article? I really don’t see anything in there that’s overly alarming. It’s also talking about the Metro area, and not the city itself.

[summersm343]

Joa Mart in West Mt. Airy Makes a Turn to Apartments

In the past:



Current progress:






Project Renderings:

Given that, it came as no surprise to us that a proposal for a “new high-rise” at a former one-story market was met with some pushback from the near neighbors. The Joa Mart stood at 367 W. Hortter St. in the past, offering fresh produce and other options to the neighborhood.

We were a bit surprised to see work moving along at this pace, as there was substantial push-back from the neighbors regarding this development. The Joa Mart Ad Hoc Committee was formed to voice the opinions of the opponents of the project and even received the support of politicians who vowed to maintain the character of this mostly single-family area. However, this project is in fact by-right, with the parcel’s CMX-2 zoning allowing for the proposed development. So what is to come exactly? Zatos Investments has teamed with RM Development to bring a four-story building with 24 apartment units over ground floor commercial space. Canno Design is handling the architectural duties, bringing us a unique curved design for this corner parcel.

Read/view more here:
https://www.ocfrealty.com/naked-philly/w...-west-mt-airy-makes-a-turn-to-apartments

[Justin7]

Since it is for some reason impossible to give anything under 12 floors its own thread, could we at least separate the lowrise development thread from a general discussion thread? I can't be the only person who is thoroughly fucking tired of scrolling through these same arguments over and over and over again.

[summersm343]

46-Unit Project Rising in West Poplar

Current progress at 1309 Cambridge Street:



Project Renderings:





Read/view more here:
http://www.rising.realestate/46-unit-project-rising-in-west-poplar/

[summersm343]

Demolition Underway At Historic Columbia Theater On Cecil B. Moore

Current site:

A recent site visit by Philly YIMBY has revealed that demolition has begun at the historic Columbia Theater at 2709 Cecil B. Moore Avenue in Cecil B. Moore, North Philadelphia. The 100-year-plus-old structure, situated at the north side of the block between North 27th and Marston streets, will be replaced by a four-story, 18-unit apartment building. Designed by Kore Design Architecture (KCA), the new development will span 21,030 square feet and feature elevator service, full sprinkling and a roof deck. Permits list Bloomtown Holdings LLC as the owner, GRIT Construction as the contractor, and a construction cost of $3.16 million.

Read/view more here:
https://phillyyimby.com/2022/03/2709-15-cecil-b-moore-avenue.html

[summersm343]

4628 Market Street



Read/view more here:
https://drummondprojects.com/commercial/market-street/

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by summersm343

^^Dude, look at life more positively. I promise you things will feel better when you do. What’s with the dose of negativity today?

Also, did you read that full Philadelphia employer article? I really don’t see anything in there that’s overly alarming. It’s also talking about the Metro area, and not the city itself.

Honestly, I’m tired of people pretending like everything’s okay when it really isn’t. It’s hard to know expectations or where things really stand. If I had nickel…

I did read the article and I don’t necessarily see the silver lining. A lot of the projected economic recovery for Center Center was dependent on surpassing certain “return to office” thresholds. It was predicted in several CCD reports that not meeting those thresholds could have severe consequences for the local economy. Well, we may likely be at the worst case scenario. And a lot of local retailers continue to close because of lost office worker foot traffic.

The reality is cities can stagnate and fall into decline rather quickly. We’re at a crucial crossroads in terms of coming out of a pandemic, dealing with a crime wave and maneuvering through an unpredictable economy. I’m not generally a negative person and of course there are bright spots, but now more than ever is a good time to be critical especially considering the current leadership at the helm. That’s all I’ll say.

[summersm343]

2700-2734 N. Broad Street



Listing on LoopNet here:
https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/2700-2734-N-Broad-St-Philadelphia-PA/21693476/

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

Honestly, I’m tired of people pretending like everything’s okay when it really isn’t. It’s hard to know expectations or where things really stand. If I had nickel…

I did read the article and I don’t necessarily see the silver lining. A lot of the projected economic recovery for Center Center was dependent on surpassing certain “return to office” thresholds. It was predicted in several CCD reports that not meeting those thresholds could have severe consequences for the local economy. Well, we may likely be at the worst case scenario. And a lot of local retailers continue to close because of lost office worker foot traffic.

The reality is cities can stagnate and fall into decline rather quickly. We’re at a crucial crossroads in terms of coming out of a pandemic, dealing with a crime wave and maneuvering through an unpredictable economy. I’m not generally a negative person and of course there are bright spots, but now more than ever is a good time to be critical especially considering the current leadership at the helm. That’s all I’ll say.

You're right, the sky is falling. Everybody pack up and run for the countryside. Flee while you can! Let's put up signs at all entrances to the city that say "abandon all hope ya who enter here."

Do you want to sell your home to me for a discount since the city is so bad and spiraling downwards?

Or, you can actually be a true object, critical and logical thinker and realize that all of this national, international and institutional money coming into Philly is about to light the place on fire (in a good way).... and Philadelphia is still extremely affordable when compared to NYC, DC, Boston, San Francisco, etc. The Life Sciences industry is taking off in Philadelphia. Positive things are coming my friend. Kick back and relax for a year or two. Enjoy everything reopening and coming back to life in the city. If a year or two from now, the population is still declining and things aren't looking up, then we can panic and fearmonger..

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by summersm343

You're right, the sky is falling. Everybody pack up and run for the countryside. Flee while you can! Let's put up signs at all entrances to the city that say "abandon all hope ya who enter here."

Do you want to sell your home to me for a discount since the city is so bad and spiraling downwards?

Or, you can actually be a true object, critical and logical thinker and realize that all of this national, international and institutional money coming into Philly is about to light the place on fire (in a good way).... and Philadelphia is still extremely affordable when compared to NYC, DC, Boston, San Francisco, etc. The Life Sciences industry is taking off in Philadelphia. Positive things are coming my friend. Kick back and relax for a year or two. Enjoy everything reopening and coming back to life in the city. If a year or two from now, the population is still declining and things aren't looking up, then we can panic and fearmonger..

Buddy, did I say any of that? Is it crazy to assume the middle of the road perspective and to be skeptical of both extremes that the city is “spiraling” or that it’s poised to “light the place on fire”??

It’s also frustrating that most if not all of us on here probably live in the best parts of the city. I just read an article that a 15 year old who was struck by a stray bullet up in Wissinoming isn’t expected to survive. His family said they’re moving out of the neighborhood. It’s heartbreaking. And then all of us on here act shocked and scoff when we hear that the city potentially lost 20k people. It’s a very “let them eat cake in those unfashionable places” kind of mentality. But stop being a such downer right?

Look, I’m still cautiously optimistic about Philly and I love it here, but I think it’s important to remember not everyone lives in a glass condo tower.