DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[RyanD]

18th and Glenarm is getting oh so close to shovels in the ground.



https://denverinfill.com/2022/03/18th-glenarm-construction-imminent.html

[TakeFive]

^^ Slowly I turned; step by step

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

We need BRT on Colorado and Speer. Colorado BLVD is already a mosh pit. Between this, 9th and Colorado, and the Colorado Center, more attractive transit options would be very helpful. Although I'm sure that it would take 10 times longer than it should to construct such a system.

As it should, because it's a terrible idea. Why VE your way into a traffic disaster just for a "transit" system nobody will use (maybe 15,000/day). We should actually do transit and have something like subway or elevated train that would have high enough ridership to improve traffic/parking/safety, instead of making it worse. I actually don't care what the mode is but it needs to be removed from traffic if it's going to attract choice ridership.

Denver isn't poor, so it doesn't need to settle for BRT. I agree with you that Colorado Blvd is a mosh pit, but I just don't think more crap is the solution.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I would definitely prefer a subway, gondola, monorail, etc... I just have zero confidence those will ever get built unless our population density at least doubled. Colorado BLVD is really a strip mall corridor. I'm not sure how easily it can be retrofit to something more multimodal. I would love to see it redesigned but most of the shopping centers are anchored by massive surface parking lots.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

Denver isn't poor, so it doesn't need to settle for BRT. I agree with you that Colorado Blvd is a mosh pit, but I just don't think more crap is the solution.

Here we go again. Yes, actually we do need to settle for BRT, we cannot afford (as a CITY) grade separated rail transit. We do not have the population and economic base to do it. It would have to be regional or state. (The region or state could afford a lot more.)

So take for comparison a new fee to construct sidewalks citywide, which you will soon see circulating for signature because we are proposing to put it on the November ballot by petition. The fee isn't small - about $100 for the average Denver home. That would generate about $40 million/year initially, escalating, or about $1.9 billion total over 30 years. (Which is on the low end of what's enough just to build and repair sidewalks.)

Take some of our best recent data points in the US for grade separated transit -

-Honolulu is about $600 million per mile, all elevated.
-NYC 2nd Avenue Subway was about $2.5 billion per mile.
-Austin is budgeting around $1 billion/mile for subway in tunnel, but nobody believes that number and it excludes all station costs.

Now back to Denver, our total general fund is $1.5 billion per year, but of that a lot is fees and such that are not available, so sale tax and property tax alone, call it right about $1 billion/year. Now, I assume we are not actually defunding the police ($567 million/yr) and we still want things like our parks department ($82 million/yr), planning department ($36 million/yr), etc. Let's just look at the Department of Transportation and Infrastructure - $140 million/year.

Then let's assume you double it! No idea where that money would come from, but just for fun. And cancel everything else DOTI does, I suppose, so I have $280 million/year to play with.

Pledge all of that - $280 million per year - you could bond about $4.6 billion. So say you need 60/40 capital/operations for a rail project, it means that Denver could buy just under $2.8 billion in capital costs.

So you could bond for maybe 1.5 miles of subway using Denver's entire DOTI budget, doubled. Call it 3 miles with federal grants. Or maybe 10 miles of elevated rail with reasonable assumptions for federal grants.

To be clear, my casual doubling of the DOTI budget amounts to about $350/year for your average Denver household in new taxes.

This compares to Honolulu - a 21 mile elevated rail system - that was $125 million/year just for operations, and the capital costs equal maybe $480 million/year. So that ONE RAIL LINE equals 16x the entire budget of Denver CPD each year. Just for comparison. That is why we struggle with large infrastructure projects in this country - most areas do not have the local tax bases to do it, and our federal money comes in irregular and unpredictable bursts (like the infrastructure bill).

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Here we go again. Yes, actually we do need to settle for BRT, we cannot afford (as a CITY) grade separated rail transit. We do not have the population and economic base to do it. It would have to be regional or state. (The region or state could afford a lot more.)

So take for comparison a new fee to construct sidewalks citywide, which you will soon see circulating for signature because we are proposing to put it on the November ballot by petition. The fee isn't small - about $100 for the average Denver home. That would generate about $40 million/year initially, escalating, or about $1.9 billion total over 30 years. (Which is on the low end of what's enough just to build and repair sidewalks.)

Take some of our best recent data points in the US for grade separated transit -

-Honolulu is about $600 million per mile, all elevated.
-NYC 2nd Avenue Subway was about $2.5 billion per mile.
-Austin is budgeting around $1 billion/mile for subway in tunnel, but nobody believes that number and it excludes all station costs.

Now back to Denver, our total general fund is $1.5 billion per year, but of that a lot is fees and such that are not available, so sale tax and property tax alone, call it right about $1 billion/year. Now, I assume we are not actually defunding the police ($567 million/yr) and we still want things like our parks department ($82 million/yr), planning department ($36 million/yr), etc. Let's just look at the Department of Transportation and Infrastructure - $140 million/year.

Then let's assume you double it! No idea where that money would come from, but just for fun. And cancel everything else DOTI does, I suppose, so I have $280 million/year to play with.

Pledge all of that - $280 million per year - you could bond about $4.6 billion. So say you need 60/40 capital/operations for a rail project, it means that Denver could buy just under $2.8 billion in capital costs.

So you could bond for maybe 1.5 miles of subway using Denver's entire DOTI budget, doubled. Call it 3 miles with federal grants. Or maybe 10 miles of elevated rail with reasonable assumptions for federal grants.

To be clear, my casual doubling of the DOTI budget amounts to about $350/year for your average Denver household in new taxes.

This compares to Honolulu - a 21 mile elevated rail system - that was $125 million/year just for operations, and the capital costs equal maybe $480 million/year. So that ONE RAIL LINE equals 16x the entire budget of Denver CPD each year. Just for comparison. That is why we struggle with large infrastructure projects in this country - most areas do not have the local tax bases to do it, and our federal money comes in irregular and unpredictable bursts (like the infrastructure bill).

Thanks Bunt for that excellent analysis. I completely agree. We are fooling ourselves if we think that we are going to be able to afford a subway or grade-separated rail in Denver unless the state, regional and federal governments are major contributors that cover 80% of the cost of those systems.

BRT should not be viewed as any less worthy or sexy than rail. The only reason why people feel that way is because we suck at doing good BRT in the US, but there are plenty of international models where BRT, or buses in general, are clean, safe, comfortable, frequent, and prioritized within the ROW so that with a citywide network of such lines, it is easy to get around without a car--the workhorse of most transit systems in big cities worldwide.

The other point is the relationship between transit and land use. Currently, the land use along Colorado Blvd sucks. But it doesn't always have to be that way. About 99% of the architecture along Colorado is disposable, built with a couple decades of life expectancy. There's no reason why we can't transition Colorado Blvd over the course of the next few decades into a higher density, mixed use, walkable, corridor of compact development with amazing BRT/bicycle lanes and generous pedestrian sidewalks on both sides and maybe one or two thru lanes for cars. We just have to have the vision and political will to make it happen. But cost-wise, that is a much more achievable goal than having a subway running under Colorado Boulevard.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I don't see any new, non-fastracks rail coming in my lifetime outside of maybe a new Front Range Passenger Rail operated by Amtrak. I'm much more excited about infill around our existing system. 38th and Blake, Alameda Station, and Belleview station are all seeing a lot of nearby development.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I don't see any new, non-fastracks rail coming in my lifetime outside of maybe a new Front Range Passenger Rail operated by Amtrak. I'm much more excited about infill around our existing system. 38th and Blake, Alameda Station, and Belleview station are all seeing a lot of nearby development.

Agreed, and maybe the extension of the L line up to the A line. To be honest, I'd be more satisfied if we ditched city transportation and instead focused on a rail line from Denver to Eagle with a stop downtown, Golden, Idaho Springs, Georgetown, Silverthorne, Frisco, Copper, Vail, Avon, Eagle. IMO, it would do more for the quality of life and the environment in Colorado than any other transit initiative that we can actually fund and build - plus I've got to think we could get some buzz going to get the feds interested in the mountain rail line...and maybe use it as an excuse to build more dense housing along the mountain corridor and help solve a housing issue up there.

[Interzen]

Looks like I may have 7 stories worth of new residents looking down into my back yard in the near future:

From BusinessDen.com

Apartment giant plans Lincoln Park complex with no pool or gym

Apartment developer plans Denver project


The southern portion of the site planned for a seven-story apartment complex has a two-story bar building that was most recently home to Denver Pony. (Thomas Gounley photos)

One of the largest owners of apartments in the country is targeting a retail stretch across from King Soopers in Lincoln Park for one of its newer product lines.

Virginia-based AvalonBay Communities has submitted plans to the city for a seven-story, 222-unit project dubbed “Avalon Kanso Santa Fe” in the 1300 block of Santa Fe Drive.

Article makes no mention of ground floor retail.

Zoned for 8 stories, so this is not unexpected, but it will be a shame to lose 11 small businesses including a decent mexican restaurant that I can currently access without crossing a street Also no more nude sunbathing for the wife

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Interzen

...Zoned for 8 stories, so this is not unexpected, but it will be a shame to lose 11 small businesses including a decent mexican restaurant that I can currently access without crossing a street Also no more nude sunbathing for the wife

I'd heard rumblings of this several years back but it wasn't by AvalonBay and I just assumed it died. I wonder if COVID derailed the original developer and Avalon Bay is stepping up/into developer position. That is a decent place if it is, indeed, the lots with Tacos Los Compras?

[Interzen]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I'd heard rumblings of this several years back but it wasn't by AvalonBay and I just assumed it died. I wonder if COVID derailed the original developer and Avalon Bay is stepping up/into developer position. That is a decent place if it is, indeed, the lots with Tacos Los Compras?

In 2016 there was a developer interested in just the plaza and the owners split the building that now has Taco Los Compas into a separate lot to accomodate but it never moved forward.

It's kind of crazy that our side of the alley is zoned U-RH-2.5 and the Santa Fe side is zoned C-MX-8.

[TakeFive]

This is the way to do it!

Originally Posted by bunt_q

So take for comparison a new fee to construct sidewalks citywide, which you will soon see circulating for signature because we are proposing to put it on the November ballot by petition. The fee isn't small - about $100 for the average Denver home. That would generate about $40 million/year initially, escalating, or about $1.9 billion total over 30 years. (Which is on the low end of what's enough just to build and repair sidewalks.)

I suggested to Dave Sachs-and-friends over four years ago that if he really wanted better sidewalks then the best way to accomplish this would be to get the voters to approve a 'dedicated' revenue stream.

Not only does it provide a steady stream of needed $'s but DOTI could better organize and execute the program as a result. If you consider who the 'likely' voters are it should be an easy concept to sell; whether the timing is right I couldn't know but why not at least try?

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

BRT should not be viewed as any less worthy or sexy than rail.

Yes it should be deemed less worthy (b/c I want my choo choo train) and it's been proven over and over people prefer riding trains.

I dunno

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

The other point is the relationship between transit and land use. Currently, the land use along Colorado Blvd sucks. But it doesn't always have to be that way. About 99% of the architecture along Colorado is disposable, built with a couple decades of life expectancy. There's no reason why we can't transition Colorado Blvd over the course of the next few decades into a higher density, mixed use, walkable, corridor

Going from memory, I'd agree that on the WEST side of Colorado Blvd there's tons of potential as there exists lots of crap on large-sized sites. But on the East side of Colorado Blvd that won't be the case; not sure how much could be accomplished on that side.

IIRC, Colorado Blvd (between I-25 and Colfax) has the highest car density counts of any street in Denver. Not that change can't happen but I sorta agree with gopokes21 that this would be one very heavy political lift.

I will NOT abandon my dreams

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I don't see any new, non-fastracks rail coming in my lifetime outside of maybe a new Front Range Passenger Rail operated by Amtrak. I'm much more excited about infill around our existing system. 38th and Blake, Alameda Station, and Belleview station are all seeing a lot of nearby development.

When I see how well 'urban-street aligned' light rail is working in Phoenix then I have to believe it would also work well in Denver. Colorado Blvd has the traffic counts that should make light rail work very well as it would connect two existing hubs at I-25/Colorado and 40th street & Colorado.

Ofc, there are reasons which I'll skip but basically Phoenix light rail passenger counts didn't drop as much as in most cities and it's bouncing back nicely this year - if not to pre-pandemic levels.

----------------------

Originally Posted by Interzen

Looks like I may have 7 stories worth of new residents looking down into my back yard in the near future:

It's interesting that AvalonBay wants a 3rd bite at the urban apple. I'm also curious when they plan to break ground on their second project near Governor's Park.

[TakeFive]

Side Pocket Topic - The Inflation Conundrum

I see a whole lot of change a-comin' over the next couple of years. First and foremost Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell has promised to do whatever is necessary to slow rampaging inflation.

Also consider that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Russia-Ukraine War Is Upending World Order And Will End Globalization" (as we know it). Both the invasion and COVID in China will continue to haunt supply-chain problems - which adds to the inflation challenge.

I DO NOT see any financial crisis or real estate depression. Rather this is very much like the Jimmy Carter times of the 1960's if for different reasons or causes.

Given inflation and increasing interest rates it's very likely that the consumer which is 70% of the GDP will (be forced to) cut back their spending spree which will feel quite recessionary.

It's hard to project how this will impact develop

but generally, 'winners' will still be able to afford a nice place to live and the lower end of the socioeconomic scale will survive partly due to the 'safety-net.' The number of winners will likely drop and it's the so-called middle class which will suffer the most. BTW, Chair Jerome Powell has the enthusiastic support of the business community as "what is bad for Main Street is also bad for Wall Street."

This will be a time of change that most of you have not experienced as adults.

[TakeFive]

Two Multifamily Communities Under Construction in Denver’s Central Park Neighborhood
March 28, 2022 - Mile High CRE


Solana Central Park, courtesy of ARK Architects

California-based Reylynn Properties and its construction arm ReyLenn Construction Company is currently under construction on two Solana projects in Denver’s Central Park community (formerly called Stapleton). Solana is Reylynn’s brand of luxury apartment communities featuring extensive amenities.

Solana Beeler Park
is a 270-unit project situated on a 3.76 acre site at the northwest corner of East 56th Ave and Boston Court. The type-V, “wrap” includes a 5 level above-grade parking structure surrounded by 4 floors of wood frame construction.

Solana Central Park
is a 307-unit project situated on a 4.5 acre parcel at the northwest corner of Central Park Blvd and East 32nd Ave. The type-V, “wrap” includes a 4 level above-grade parking structure surrounded by 4 floors of wood frame construction.

Neither grand nor grotesque IMO.

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Here we go again. Yes, actually we do need to settle for BRT, we cannot afford (as a CITY) grade separated rail transit. We do not have the population and economic base to do it. It would have to be regional or state. (The region or state could afford a lot more.)

So take for comparison a new fee to construct sidewalks citywide, which you will soon see circulating for signature because we are proposing to put it on the November ballot by petition. The fee isn't small - about $100 for the average Denver home. That would generate about $40 million/year initially, escalating, or about $1.9 billion total over 30 years. (Which is on the low end of what's enough just to build and repair sidewalks.)

Take some of our best recent data points in the US for grade separated transit -

-Honolulu is about $600 million per mile, all elevated.
-NYC 2nd Avenue Subway was about $2.5 billion per mile.
-Austin is budgeting around $1 billion/mile for subway in tunnel, but nobody believes that number and it excludes all station costs.

Now back to Denver, our total general fund is $1.5 billion per year, but of that a lot is fees and such that are not available, so sale tax and property tax alone, call it right about $1 billion/year. Now, I assume we are not actually defunding the police ($567 million/yr) and we still want things like our parks department ($82 million/yr), planning department ($36 million/yr), etc. Let's just look at the Department of Transportation and Infrastructure - $140 million/year.

Then let's assume you double it! No idea where that money would come from, but just for fun. And cancel everything else DOTI does, I suppose, so I have $280 million/year to play with.

Pledge all of that - $280 million per year - you could bond about $4.6 billion. So say you need 60/40 capital/operations for a rail project, it means that Denver could buy just under $2.8 billion in capital costs.

So you could bond for maybe 1.5 miles of subway using Denver's entire DOTI budget, doubled. Call it 3 miles with federal grants. Or maybe 10 miles of elevated rail with reasonable assumptions for federal grants.

To be clear, my casual doubling of the DOTI budget amounts to about $350/year for your average Denver household in new taxes.

This compares to Honolulu - a 21 mile elevated rail system - that was $125 million/year just for operations, and the capital costs equal maybe $480 million/year. So that ONE RAIL LINE equals 16x the entire budget of Denver CPD each year. Just for comparison. That is why we struggle with large infrastructure projects in this country - most areas do not have the local tax bases to do it, and our federal money comes in irregular and unpredictable bursts (like the infrastructure bill).

"Here we go again" indeed. Are you really suggesting that a transit system, regardless of mode, is a regular budget line item? Just for fun, what are the annual budgets of Austin and Honolulu compared to Denver??

You mention Austin's subway. Denver is a more urban city and I think each time you say our density needs to increase, it literally does just that. So keep saying it, I guess. Denver is already a great pedestrian city, so long as you drive and park where you're going. Being a great pedestrian city is the basis of becoming a great transit city, except that Denver is literally the only city to spend billions on transit and AVOID anywhere with pedestrians. Billions down the drain.

As far as sidewalk fees go, that's just poor political leadership on council prioritizing funding for tent cities in collusion with NIMBY forces. It's literally beyond insane that Denver, which hadn't rejected a tax increase until the Coliseum Arena stupid idea, has to have a dedicated revenue mechanism to have freaking sidewalks. That's a joke with which you only damage your own credibility by repeating.

This city has made all the money in the world appear for every cause under the sun except for meaningful transit and walkability. We take our marching orders from the Park Hill crowd and it is what it is, but stop trying to make sense of it.

I'm just pointing out the obvious omission of transit in the donut hole, but by all means, continue to work around the edges I guess. Have fun with Colorado Blvd traffic studies dictating what can or can't be done for transit. The silly thing is you don't need a whole new subway network separate from FasTracks. It's hugely complimentary if you do it right. It wouldn't take a ton of subway or whatever to fill in the donut hole where density and pedestrians actually exist, and then you bring those folks into the fold. BRT on Colorado Blvd is penny wise and pound foolish, particularly if Polis is going to force RTD to blow $2-3 billion on the Boulder train. I'm not calling out any individuals as dishonest, but I would generally have concerns about anyone acting like a billion dollars is a lot of money when it comes to infrastructure in Denver in 2022. Sounds to me like someone who just doesn't want real transit. Maybe they live in Park Hill, maybe they live in Highlands Ranch, idk, but we should just get different ideas on the ballot before every other idea under the sun gets funded.

[TakeFive]

I'm looking forward to seeing what Austin ends up with

Originally Posted by gopokes21

You mention Austin's subway. Denver is a more urban city...

I wouldn't agree that Austin's downtown core is any less dense than Denver is, especially with the way it is developing.

Austin's vision is to run two of their light rail lines, the Orange Line and the Blue Line underground in the city core. This is what I'm curious about:

Austin's Project Connect is a smorgasbord of various transit pieces. But with respect to their light rail they are anticipating updated cost estimates for the Orange and Blue lines later this year. They have $7 billion to play with (for everything) assuming FTA participation. I'll be curious to hear what their updated cost analysis shows for just these two lines. Good guess that it will eat up most of the $7 billion available if that's what they choose to do. BTW, the Blue Line looks to be fairly useless outside of going to their airport which doesn't even handle that much air traffic.

In any case, grade separated lines anywhere outside of Denver's downtown core are not feasible and because Denver already has hubs at Union Station and the Civic Center there's no need to go underground in Denver.

[bobg]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

"Here we go again" indeed. Are you really suggesting that a transit system, regardless of mode, is a regular budget line item? Just for fun, what are the annual budgets of Austin and Honolulu compared to Denver??

You mention Austin's subway. Denver is a more urban city and I think each time you say our density needs to increase, it literally does just that. So keep saying it, I guess. Denver is already a great pedestrian city, so long as you drive and park where you're going. Being a great pedestrian city is the basis of becoming a great transit city, except that Denver is literally the only city to spend billions on transit and AVOID anywhere with pedestrians. Billions down the drain.

As far as sidewalk fees go, that's just poor political leadership on council prioritizing funding for tent cities in collusion with NIMBY forces. It's literally beyond insane that Denver, which hadn't rejected a tax increase until the Coliseum Arena stupid idea, has to have a dedicated revenue mechanism to have freaking sidewalks. That's a joke with which you only damage your own credibility by repeating.

This city has made all the money in the world appear for every cause under the sun except for meaningful transit and walkability. We take our marching orders from the Park Hill crowd and it is what it is, but stop trying to make sense of it.

I'm just pointing out the obvious omission of transit in the donut hole, but by all means, continue to work around the edges I guess. Have fun with Colorado Blvd traffic studies dictating what can or can't be done for transit. The silly thing is you don't need a whole new subway network separate from FasTracks. It's hugely complimentary if you do it right. It wouldn't take a ton of subway or whatever to fill in the donut hole where density and pedestrians actually exist, and then you bring those folks into the fold. BRT on Colorado Blvd is penny wise and pound foolish, particularly if Polis is going to force RTD to blow $2-3 billion on the Boulder train. I'm not calling out any individuals as dishonest, but I would generally have concerns about anyone acting like a billion dollars is a lot of money when it comes to infrastructure in Denver in 2022. Sounds to me like someone who just doesn't want real transit. Maybe they live in Park Hill, maybe they live in Highlands Ranch, idk, but we should just get different ideas on the ballot before every other idea under the sun gets funded.

Becoming a great transit and pedestrian city means striving to build streets like
this on existing stroads, and when needed going underground on narrow right of ways to preserve valuable streetscapes like this.

It does not mean spending several billion dollars more than the B line to Boulder/Longmont so you can build a subway that will likely have similar ridership to the Boulder buses. All so you don't disrupt automobile traffic and preserve streetscapes like this.

[coolmandan03]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

So take for comparison a new fee to construct sidewalks citywide, which you will soon see circulating for signature because we are proposing to put it on the November ballot by petition. The fee isn't small - about $100 for the average Denver home.

Can you explain more about this? I've already paid $2,500 to have my sidewalks fixed because I was in the first zone to require it (and the city came and did it and sent me the bill). Now the city is looking to charge everyone to fix everybody else? So I get to pay all of mine and other folks?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by coolmandan03

Can you explain more about this? I've already paid $2,500 to have my sidewalks fixed because I was in the first zone to require it (and the city came and did it and sent me the bill). Now the city is looking to charge everyone to fix everybody else? So I get to pay all of mine and other folks?

Yep. And those of us who live in metro districts that paid for infrastructure will have to subsidize other areas of the the city that have avoided their responsibility.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bobg

Becoming a great transit and pedestrian city means striving to build streets like
this on existing stroads, and when needed going underground on narrow right of ways to preserve valuable streetscapes like this.

It does not mean spending several billion dollars more than the B line to Boulder/Longmont so you can build a subway that will likely have similar ridership to the Boulder buses. All so you don't disrupt automobile traffic and preserve streetscapes like this.

^^So true. However, as I have said in the past, I don't think Denver can do this unless we completely remove DOTI and the Fire Department from land planning discussions. We need to replace Department of Transportation & Infrastructure with a streetscape committee which comprehensively looks at pedestrians, the built environment, and multi-modal transportation when making decisions. We can continue creating these sterile environments with really nice buildings but a generally poor pedestrian experience or we can radically shift our thinking on planning and shrink roads, shrink right of ways, and allow the human experience to take precedent over cars and trucks.