Calgary International Airport II

[YYCFlier]

I wonder if BA will resume in 2023.

WS getting permanent slots to LHR makes that seem unlikely, but apparently YYC was mentioned in the LHR collaboration report as wanting to resume the route.

It’s too bad because even though BA’s product isn’t great it has a great global network vs. WS LHR being O&D.

[Coldrsx]

Some smokin' deals to Europe and much of Canada on YYCdeal.com right now.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I wonder if BA will resume in 2023.

I don't see a chance of it next year and if they do, they're gonna get beat down. I feel a return in '24 or beyond would be more likely to succeed but who knows... these days trying to predict anything more than 8 weeks in advance is a fool's errand.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I wonder if BA will resume in 2023.

WS getting permanent slots to LHR makes that seem unlikely, but apparently YYC was mentioned in the LHR collaboration report as wanting to resume the route.

It’s too bad because even though BA’s product isn’t great it has a great global network vs. WS LHR being O&D.

I think Westjet will be a huge barrier to entry for new or returning flights to Europe. It’s still recovery mode for a lot of routes but I would say BA is unlikely.
Unrelated but not entirely, Condor has already dropped plans to return to YYC.
An indication of weakened demand. KLM is the only full service airline in the European market. Edelweiss and Eurowings Discovery are very leisure focussed.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I wonder if BA will resume in 2023.

I highly doubt it. Several reasons.

1. Oil prices going up doesn't help. It's the single largest expense for airlines, and if BA couldn't make YYC work with oil at $50/barrel, it will be very hard to make it work when the price is 3x that.

Just look at when BA downgraded their service to YYC from B777 to B763. It was around 2008, when oil was over 150$ a barrel. We are headed that way yet again.

2. BA struggled on the route with only 1 direct competitor. AC. Now You have WS in the mix. Can YYC sustain 3 carriers to LHR? All signs point to no.

3. Canada, in general, isn't a premium heavy market, and unfortunately, BA is a premium heavy carrier. They have fewer seats on their aircraft vs. competitors, and more premium seats as well. That puts them at a disadvantage compared to AC and WS.

AC B789 - 298 seats, only 30 business class seats. No first.
WS B789 - 320 seats, only 16 business class seats. No first.
BA B789 - 216 seats, 42 business class seats, 8 First.

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I highly doubt it. Several reasons.

1. Oil prices going up doesn't help. It's the single largest expense for airlines, and if BA couldn't make YYC work with oil at $50/barrel, it will be very hard to make it work when the price is 3x that.

Just look at when BA downgraded their service to YYC from B777 to B763. It was around 2008, when oil was over 150$ a barrel. We are headed that way yet again.

2. BA struggled on the route with only 1 direct competitor. AC. Now You have WS in the mix. Can YYC sustain 3 carriers to LHR? All signs point to no.

3. Canada, in general, isn't a premium heavy market, and unfortunately, BA is a premium heavy carrier. They have fewer seats on their aircraft vs. competitors, and more premium seats as well. That puts them at a disadvantage compared to AC and WS.

AC B789 - 298 seats, only 30 business class seats. No first.
WS B789 - 320 seats, only 16 business class seats. No first.
BA B789 - 216 seats, 42 business class seats, 8 First.

Yes agree, Canada’s premium market routes for International flights is Toronto YYZ, Vancouver YVR & Montreal YUL. After that Calgary YYC to smaller extent.

Also British Airways uses the Airbus A380 plane ✈️ that can seat up to 500+ passengers on Vancouver YVR- London UK flight route during (Summers) & Its very unlikely BA returns to Alberta anytime soon!

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I think Westjet will be a huge barrier to entry for new or returning flights to Europe. It’s still recovery mode for a lot of routes but I would say BA is unlikely.
Unrelated but not entirely, Condor has already dropped plans to return to YYC.
An indication of weakened demand. KLM is the only full service airline in the European market. Edelweiss and Eurowings Discovery are very leisure focussed.

Yep & WestJet will also probably make it tough for entry of Asian Airlines that want to start up service in the Calgary YYC market,in a few years time.

Basically leaving most of the competition on YYC- Asia for WS & Air Canada ,eventually.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

2. BA struggled on the route with only 1 direct competitor. AC. Now You have WS in the mix. Can YYC sustain 3 carriers to LHR? All signs point to no.

Air Transat used to fly seasonally to LGW, so we had three carriers (TS, AC and BA) going to LON in the past and BA was year round for years. The bigger issue I think is WS continuing to strangle YYC as a fortress hub. From the Canadian POS, it's easier to get to Europe directly from YYC rather than connect via LHR, especially as you say for leisure. And this summer, WS is double daily to LON on 789.

It 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 because WS' FF program is so terrible and inaccessible. Argh.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

Basically leaving most of the competition on YYC- Asia for WS & Air Canada ,eventually.

I actually don't think we will see AC resume Asia service. Seems way more likely we will see WS launch YYC-DEL.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I actually don't think we will see AC resume Asia service. Seems way more likely we will see WS launch YYC-DEL.

Really? I thought YYC/NAR was decently full.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

Yes agree, Canada’s premium market routes for International flights is Toronto YYZ, Vancouver YVR & Montreal YUL. After that Calgary YYC to smaller extent.

Also British Airways uses the Airbus A380 plane ✈️ that can seat up to 500+ passengers on Vancouver YVR- London UK flight route during (Summers) & Its very unlikely BA returns to Alberta anytime soon!

Wouldn't call YYZ and YUL premium heavy either. BA can barely make YUL work. YUL has been a B788 station for BA since 2017. It's their smallest widebody, and no first class. YYZ regularly sees the B788 as well. And when they sub in the B789, often times first is sold as business class.

As for YVR, it seems its the most premium destination from the bunch. But even there, there's been reduction in service. BA used to fly 2x daily B744 to YVR. Which got then downgraded to 2x daily B772, and now a single daily A380. Recently we've seen their A350s to YVR as well.

Overall, BA's seats to Canada has dropped by 20% from 2011 to 2019. All 4 destinations saw a reduction in seats. In contrast, BA has grown 5% in the US over that time.

So where do you think BA will add destinations in the coming years. Canada, or the US?

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Air Transat used to fly seasonally to LGW, so we had three carriers (TS, AC and BA) going to LON in the past and BA was year round for years. The bigger issue I think is WS continuing to strangle YYC as a fortress hub. From the Canadian POS, it's easier to get to Europe directly from YYC rather than connect via LHR, especially as you say for leisure. And this summer, WS is double daily to LON on 789.

It 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 because WS' FF program is so terrible and inaccessible. Argh.

I was being specific to LHR.

But yes, WS continuing to add secondary European destinations from YYC doesn't bode well for BA's return to YYC. Unfortunately, YYC isn't a large enough market for there to be room for all these carriers.

[thenoflyzone]

duplicate. delete

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Unfortunately, YYC isn't a large enough market for there to be room for all these carriers.

In WS's case, this is not for O&D but rather hub traffic. Pre-COVID, 50% of YYC WestJet traffic was connecting. The intent is to get US pax to connect in YYC. Think SFO-YYC-LHR or PDX-YYC-CDG.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I actually don't think we will see AC resume Asia service. Seems way more likely we will see WS launch YYC-DEL.

I think YYC-DEL would be extremely successful for WS. I wouldn't be surprised to see it launch even this winter, depending on how Covid pans out. I could definitely see CDG 3-5x weekly year-round as well.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by hehehe

I think YYC-DEL would be extremely successful for WS. I wouldn't be surprised to see it launch even this winter, depending on how Covid pans out. I could definitely see CDG 3-5x weekly year-round as well.

I think there is a LOT of connecting pax from YYC on the YVR-DEL routes.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I actually don't think we will see AC resume Asia service. Seems way more likely we will see WS launch YYC-DEL.

Canada-DEL non stop just got a whole lot harder because of what's going on in Ukraine/Russia. Look at AC's non stops to DEL from YYZ/YVR/YUL. Fuel stops at DUB on the westbounds back to YYZ/YUL are now the norm. Eastbound from YVR to DEL also now requires a fuel stop.

Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you. Now however, I don't think YYC-DEL is on WS's mind.

Besides, Boeing is still not delivering new B787s. And a daily YYC-DEL would need 2 frames. You could make do with 1 with 3x weekly service.

Also, is there even any room left on the bilateral for WS to start YYC-DEL? I don't think there is. They're not even a designated Canadian carrier on the treaty.

https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/transport-agreement/india

But yes, demand is definitely there. Pretty big Indian community in Alberta.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I think there is a LOT of connecting pax from YYC on the YVR-DEL routes.

Not just YYC, but YEG as well.

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Really? I thought YYC/NAR was decently full.

NRT? It was, but YYC-NRT is basically overflow for YVR-NRT. Only once that route is back performing at pre-pandemic levels would there be enough overflow to warrant YYC-NRT.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by ace.yyc

NRT? It was, but YYC-NRT is basically overflow for YVR-NRT. Only once that route is back performing at pre-pandemic levels would there be enough overflow to warrant YYC-NRT.

Yes. Typo.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Canada-DEL non stop just got a whole lot harder because of what's going on in Ukraine/Russia. Look at AC's non stops to DEL from YYZ/YVR/YUL. Fuel stops at DUB on the westbounds back to YYZ/YUL are now the norm. Eastbound from YVR to DEL also now requires a fuel stop.

Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you. Now however, I don't think YYC-DEL is on WS's mind.

Besides, Boeing is still not delivering new B787s. And a daily YYC-DEL would need 2 frames. You could make do with 1 with 3x weekly service.

Also, is there even any room left on the bilateral for WS to start YYC-DEL? I don't think there is. They're not even a designated Canadian carrier on the treaty.

https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/transport-agreement/india

But yes, demand is definitely there. Pretty big Indian community in Alberta.



Not just YYC, but YEG as well.

Even with a fuel stop, DEL seems like a good pick for WS. If it can work with a fuel stop from YVR I'm sure it could work from YYC. I guess the problem is with the bilateral then. I wonder how difficult it would be for WS to get it changed.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by hehehe

Even with a fuel stop, DEL seems like a good pick for WS. If it can work with a fuel stop from YVR I'm sure it could work from YYC. I guess the problem is with the bilateral then. I wonder how difficult it would be for WS to get it changed.

I don’t know.

Air Canada could only make DEL work out of Canada fairly recently with the 787 from their largest hubs.

Is India premium heavy? I have my doubts. Combined with the high requirements for aircraft utilization, the extensive fuel required (11,000km route), the fact that Calgary is a smaller market, AC competition on the route from Canada, and lack of a connecting partner in India and the case seems iffy.