DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by rds70

A new multi-family project in the Denver portion of the Tech Denver at 4552 S. Ulster. 12 stories, 236 units, Legacy Partners:

that's one helluva render.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I have my mind blown every time I drive by 38th and Blake with the number of cranes in action. I wonder how it compares to peak Union Station construction in the mid 2010s. Does anyone know if the Formativ project (former WTC) is still going forward. That is a prime lot.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by rds70

A new multi-family project in the Denver portion of the Tech Denver at 4552 S. Ulster. 12 stories, 236 units, Legacy Partners:

These are the home run infill projects I get excited about. Some areas have a critical mass of momentum and that's great and they'll keep going. Other places are ripe for development/redevelopment but the zoning isn't right or it's on the wrong side of the tracks (ie not Denver) or requires a difficult parcel split with an inflexible owner, etc etc. DTC is a great horizontal mixed use area that could use more multifamily and I'm glad to see this happening - wish it would even more. DTC might even be a full 15 minute community at this point.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

that's one helluva render.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I was just looking through ePermits and I noticed this project at 13th and Cherokee. It is a 17 story apartment that is making its way through design review. It is interesting how granular things become on purely aesthetic matters, like how thick the coats of of stucco must be applied. Here's a photo. This is one of my most hated parking lots so I'll be happy to see it go:

[TakeFive]

Small Sample Size but it's interesting none-the-less

We've been aware that the Pandemic was having an impact on migration patterns but on Dec 21, 2021 the U.S. Census Bureau released their 2020-2021 migration results.

This is what it looks like: Note: this is by percentage and the Census Bureau also has the numeric changes.



Notable Takeaways:

• The South was the biggest beneficiary of population increases.
• The Northeast region was the biggest loser
• The West saw a gain in population (especially the intermountain west)
• New York had the largest annual and cumulative numeric population decline
• Three states had populations above 20 million in 2021: California (39,237,836), Texas (29,527,941) and Florida (21,781,128). New York dropped below 20 million people in the last year, decreasing from 20,154,933 to 19,835,913.
• The largest net domestic migration gains were in Florida (220,890), Texas (170,307) and Arizona (93,026).

Also interesting is that the top states for losing population were New York, California and Illinois.

The states of Washington, Oregon and Colorado could be described as 'cooling down' but still growing.

If you're into colors, of the Top Ten states that added population eight were red and two, Nevada and North Caroline are bluish-purple.

Here’s Why California Is Losing Population for the First Time
December 31, 2021 By Joel Kotkin, Wendell Cox - DailyBeast via Yahoo

California is suffering a major demographic reversal, one that threatens both the state’s economic future and the durability of its progressive model.

The numbers speak for themselves: The Golden State’s population has started declining for the first time, with new data from the state Department of Finance showing a population loss of 173,000 for the year ended July 1, 2021

Boosters argue this is inconsequential but:

This isn’t the Rust Belt of the 1970s, but the exodus out of the state and especially its metropolitan areas seems to be accelerating.

Some California boosters comfort themselves by insisting the people leaving are mostly poor or old. But an analysis of IRS data from 2012 to 2019 indicates that 85 percent of those leaving are in their prime earning years of 25 to 64.

IMO California will continue to lose a increasing part of their 'tax base' as companies continue to move to more business-friendly states. That said: "Thank God for Tech" when it comes to the Golden State.

-------------------------
As to 2021's best Denver completions

I especially like Market Station and the Thomspon Hotel but McGregor Square may have the most impact. But you can't ignore the splendor of Block 162. Of the many completions in 2021 it's hard to find a genuine Dog.

[twister244]

This is crazy.......

https://www.westword.com/news/denver-average-home-price-over-700000-update-13197594

[TakeFive]

Couple of things:

Originally Posted by twister244

This is crazy.......

https://www.westword.com/news/denver-average-home-price-over-700000-update-13197594

I recall that there was a significant uptick in multi-million $ home sales last year including a bunch over $5 million. This can certainly impact those average statistics a lot.

With respect to the year-end rush, these buyers were presumably wanting to beat the expected uptick in interest rates that was all the buzz. In hindsight they were smart buyers as interest rates are indeed going up.

Things can easily change and there's a lot of uncertainty with the economy. But, there's still a lot of 'helicopter' money being inputted into the economy so it's always tricky to make predictions. I do expect the 'helicopter' money to lessen going forward and with inflation it won't go as far. I have also read that there are now more people with less ability to spend as all that money they had socked away dwindles, especially if they're not working.

My best guess is that real estate will cool off some over the next year - at least in Denver but we'll see.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Couple of things:


I recall that there was a significant uptick in multi-million $ home sales last year including a bunch over $5 million. This can certainly impact those average statistics a lot.

With respect to the year-end rush, these buyers were presumably wanting to beat the expected uptick in interest rates that was all the buzz. In hindsight they were smart buyers as interest rates are indeed going up.

Things can easily change and there's a lot of uncertainty with the economy. But, there's still a lot of 'helicopter' money being inputted into the economy so it's always tricky to make predictions. I do expect the 'helicopter' money to lessen going forward and with inflation it won't go as far. I have also read that there are now more people with less ability to spend as all that money they had socked away dwindles, especially if they're not working.

My best guess is that real estate will cool off some over the next year - at least in Denver but we'll see.

Interest rates really do need to go up. We are closing next week on a refi of our house that we bought a whopping two years ago. Going to pull out enough money to add a bathroom in the basement, and it still lowers our payments by $250/month. All possible because the new appraisal says that's the math at the 70% LTV max. It's just bonkers. Ironically, the new assessment from the City that came across, what, six months ago, showed we had lost a little value in the prior three years. Now, I don't know what the assessor's office was smoking, but the city is leaving an awful lot of money on the table being conservative with their valuations.

[Ndj]

Looks like there may be a crane going up at the La Loma site. Hard to tell exactly where it is from my apartment.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

maybe an up-to-date full color render will make the Kairoi design look better, but I was never a fan of balconies completely surrounded by cement & metal railings, too much sunshine blocking.

If I understand you correctly then I totally disagree. I think "stick-on" balconies that jut out are awful.

Higher-end apartments (like in Cherry Creek for example) always have recessed balconies. On corners however, then it's normal to see two exposed sides. Many of the new projects have used a half and half approach where balconies are half recessed and half jutting out. That's not so terrible.

Part of enjoying a balcony would be seasonal, I suspect. In summer shade is a wonderful thing. West facing units can be depressing in the summer and west facing units will also have higher 'cooling' costs as it's exposed to direct sunlight as the sun is going down at the hottest time of day.

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

I feel like the Kairoi will be interesting -- and they seem to put out a good product.

Route40 could also be interesting, or a complete disaster depending on the materials.

Either way it will be transformational for Colfax. First market rate apartments in decades on Colfax between Broadway and York. The idea of someone gazing from their pool onto that papa johns parking lot is crazy. And progress.

I would agree re: Kairoi projects.

Although these projects might not be as 'prominent' I enjoy the good news along Colfax.

Originally Posted by laniroj

While I am not a big fan of this style architecture, I really appreciate it for this location. IMO this is an excellent nod to the 50's and mic-century culture Colfax is known for (you know, after the greatest generation bulldozed all of the mansions in the 50's). It's very motor lodgy reminiscent.

^^ THIS

[TakeFive]

The Good News is there is Good Momentum

Momentum
according to Merriam-Webster:

• the strength or force that something has when it is moving
• the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as time passes

I've mentioned before that while hardly shocking this is awesome.

Originally Posted by rds70

Per the Denver Business Journal, 1900 Lawrence has secured construction loans:

With construction loans in place there's no turning back.

Still miles to go before....

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

They've started demolishing the main Greyhound station structure after pausing for the holidays. At this rate, it looks like it will be gone this month.

but you have to believe this will move forward to construction. Whether they phase construction or build out the whole block will be interesting to see. The key here is the location. As developers have indicated there's never a bad time to build when you've got a great location.

My crystal ball says:

that aside from the above and anything else that breaks ground this year that construction of commercial office space will come to a screeching halt (not counting any build-to-suit or preleased projects). Similarly, aside from the Marriott on 14th street, I suspect construction of new hotels will disappear.

Residential construction could continue apace near the city center so long as they are economically viable .

Obviously I foresee the economy rolling over at some point. To what degree is anybody's guess.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by twister244

This is crazy.......

https://www.westword.com/news/denver-average-home-price-over-700000-update-13197594

It is crazy, but not surprising. Mounds and decades of data supporting this trend...lots of job production, in-migration, and population growth accompanied by very little housing production.

A simple plan to solve things like housing below...but it involves offending many, many people who are typically older, white, wealthy, and liberal. Maybe that's not PC, but it sure is true.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...isis-college-housing-health-care/621221/

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...Things can easily change and there's a lot of uncertainty with the economy. But, there's still a lot of 'helicopter' money being inputted into the economy so it's always tricky to make predictions. I do expect the 'helicopter' money to lessen going forward and with inflation it won't go as far...

If I am interpreting helicopter money correctly, I'd generally say helicopter money isn't affected by inflation.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

My best guess is that real estate will cool off some over the next year - at least in Denver but we'll see.

Generational housing shortage. My prediction is housing doesn't get solved or become more affordable in desireable places until boomers die off en masse and leave large homes to their gen x, millennial, and zoomer offspring.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by laniroj

If I am interpreting helicopter money correctly, I'd generally say helicopter money isn't affected by inflation.

Helicopter money is essentially government deficit spending but really it's excessive deficit spending. It would also include moves made by the Fed to grease the liquidity wheels - like they did when the Pandemic hit. The more $'s that are chasing goods the more likely that the cost of goods goes higher so (too much) helicopter money creates inflation.

To be fair, initial inflation resulted form the Pandemic created supply-chain problems which is ongoing. When the pandemic arrived providers cut their estimates for demand going forward when in reality demand ended up exceeding all projections by a country mile. The other supply-chain issue was China (for example) cutting back on manufacturing as they tried to contain the coronavirus from spreading.

So the perfect storm was a constipated supply chain along with 'helicopter' money chasing goods (and services) that weren't available.


Same ole song, different verse.

Originally Posted by laniroj

Generational housing shortage. My prediction is housing doesn't get solved or become more affordable in desireable places until boomers die off en masse and leave large homes to their gen x, millennial, and zoomer offspring.

So you're saying affordability will continue to be a problem just as it has always been? I'm sure you are correct.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by laniroj

It is crazy, but not surprising. Mounds and decades of data supporting this trend...lots of job production, in-migration, and population growth accompanied by very little housing production.

A simple plan to solve things like housing below...but it involves offending many, many people who are typically older, white, wealthy, and liberal. Maybe that's not PC, but it sure is true.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...isis-college-housing-health-care/621221/

Interesting read, sort of.

But consider the source; consider how he loves to 'throw everything against the wall"; consider that nowadays everybody is a critic; it's always easy to be a Monday Morning Quarterback.

Bottom Line:

Article is way too far off the beaten path to expound on here but I'm not a fan of geeky pieces that totally ignore the genius of 'free markets.'

Food for thought? Okay fine.

[laniroj]

[QUOTE=TakeFive;9503469]...So you're saying affordability will continue to be a problem just as it has always been? I'm sure you are correct.[QUOTE=TakeFive;9503469]

Housing affordability has not always been a problem and in fact, it wasn't generally ever a problem for you (if I'm guesstimating your age right). It has been a problem since the 1990s in coastal cities, became a problem in non-coastal interior cities during the 2010's, and spread to more rural, secondary and even some tertiary markets with Covid.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

..Interesting read, sort of.

But consider the source; consider how he loves to 'throw everything against the wall"; consider that nowadays everybody is a critic; it's always easy to be a Monday Morning Quarterback.

Bottom Line:

Article is way too far off the beaten path to expound on here but I'm not a fan of geeky pieces that totally ignore the genius of 'free markets.'

Food for thought? Okay fine.

Ae you against throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks? Seems to me that's the very definition of free markets. Unfortunately, our markets, housing in particular, are nowhere close to being free. What we're doing now is having disastrous effects on tens, nay, a hundred twenty million people or so in this country.

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I was just looking through ePermits and I noticed this project at 13th and Cherokee. It is a 17 story apartment that is making its way through design review. It is interesting how granular things become on purely aesthetic matters, like how thick the coats of of stucco must be applied. Here's a photo. This is one of my most hated parking lots so I'll be happy to see it go:

nice balconies -- not caves. lol

[TakeFive]

Housing affordability has not always been a problem and in fact, it wasn't generally ever a problem for you (if I'm guesstimating your age right). It has been a problem since the 1990s in coastal cities, became a problem in non-coastal interior cities during the 2010's, and spread to more rural, secondary and even some tertiary markets with Covid.

Ae you against throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks? Seems to me that's the very definition of free markets. Unfortunately, our markets, housing in particular, are nowhere close to being free. What we're doing now is having disastrous effects on tens, nay, a hundred twenty million people or so in this country.

This sounds like one of those "free speech" confusions. Ofc, he's entitled to say whatever he wants just as I'm entitled to suggest how pointless his points are.

When you bring up 'boomers' for example you're talking about Single Family Home ownership and presumably in specific areas. It reminds me of a song by John Lennon from 1964: "Here we go again" and I promise you that even in 1964 there were people who wanted to buy homes in neighborhoods they couldn't afford.

But it's different now right? And I'd agree; it's always different.

Anyway you have your view on affordability which is different from mine. I don't automatically think of singe family home ownership, let alone in high valued neighborhoods. I think more to basic housing affordability. Btw, nobody has posted about new affordable projects like I have. But it's not generally a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 development example.

[TakeFive]

Just what Denver Needs

Denver is considering rewriting its rezoning rules to incorporate ‘equity.’
Jan 13, 2022 By Kyle Harris - Denverite

For starters, 90% of new developments won’t be affected by this at all.

Then there's this:

Just like racial segregation was once a core value expressed through zoning code, equity and avoiding displacement are values city brass say they care about and want to put into code now.

Honestly, I have no clue what specific changes they're contemplating and the "Devil is always in the Details" but this sounds like a classic "Be careful what you ask for" and is likely to have negative "unintended consequences."

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by twister244

This is crazy.......

https://www.westword.com/news/denver-average-home-price-over-700000-update-13197594

there is current just one single residential property for sale in all of whittier and cole. this is 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 bonkers.