DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Evans West was already being excavated in early December. Does the construction permit come after that, is this late news, or is this for a different part of the Evans School projects?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

maybe an up-to-date full color render will make the Kairoi design look better, but I was never a fan of balconies completely surrounded by cement & metal railings, too much sunshine blocking.

Here is another Route 40 render:

While I am not a big fan of this style architecture, I really appreciate it for this location. IMO this is an excellent nod to the 50's and mic-century culture Colfax is known for (you know, after the greatest generation bulldozed all of the mansions in the 50's). It's very motor lodgy reminiscent.

[Interzen]

Originally Posted by Ich

Also looks like something is about to break ground next to Movement gym on 6th and Kalamath

if it's just east of Movement then it is probably this:

2020PM0000031 - 5th & Lipan 2020-PROJMSTR-0000031 550 N Lipan ST 0509104037000 I-MX-5 Stephen Wilson Allison Jones ajones@trinsicres.com 2020-CONCEPT-0000014 01/13/2020 Closed - Complete 10/05/2020 2020-SDP-0000338 14-OCT-20 Review in Progress 16-NOV-21 Two "podium" type buildings with 4 stories of residential over 2 stories of parking. The site's total area is 2.79 acres and is comprised of three parcels. The current zoning is I-MX-5, UO-2. No rezoning is being requested.

If it is across 6th to the north then it would be the brewery coming to 601 Lipan and decribed in this site development plan

Page 8 has the building use descriptions

P.S. I really wanted to buy this blighted Douglas Bruce shell owned property when it hit the market a few years ago for $650k but the very unsanitary homeless encampment next door under 6th viaduct scared me away. That and lack of funding
In the plus column it has an income producing billboard

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Evans West was already being excavated in early December. Does the construction permit come after that, is this late news, or is this for a different part of the Evans School projects?

It was old news... Business Den doesn't seem to distinguish between brand new building permits for construction from add-on permits/or administrative changes to existing projects. So yeah -- no news really.

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by laniroj

While I am not a big fan of this style architecture, I really appreciate it for this location. IMO this is an excellent nod to the 50's and mic-century culture Colfax is known for (you know, after the greatest generation bulldozed all of the mansions in the 50's). It's very motor lodgy reminiscent.

oh yeah, definitely see it now. It could be a hotel at first glance.

[Arapahoe]

Kenect Denver has submitted new renderings after reopening the Site Development Plan with Denver. They've eliminated one entire floor of parking and reduced the number of studio units replaced with bigger "JR1BR" units. They expanded the co-working space + gym and added additional residential units and relocated the pool to align with 21st Street on the 23rd floor roof deck.





This will be located on 2100 block just like XD2. Kenect on Lawrence and XD2 on Arapahoe. Almost twin towers in height and location. Color wise, they will contrast since XD2 is a black and gray with dark framed windows, and Kenect is light and bright.

If you look for the parking lot near the center of the second render, that is where XD2 is rising.

[coolmandan03]

Does Kenect own the lot along 21st Street? Seems risky to align the pool and row of southwest windows if those two smaller buildings may eventually be replaced by something larger.

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by coolmandan03

Does Kenect own the lot along 21st Street? Seems risky to align the pool and row of southwest windows if those two smaller buildings may eventually be replaced by something larger.

those are the Stage Stop town homes and are individually owned. You are required to have a setback of at least 10ft above the fifth floor on 21st St. for 70% of the structure...so guessing that chance of building a very slender tower that would reach 24 floors to block the view of the pool is pretty slim to none since the floor plate would be too small to be economically viable. Anyway, I'm sure they did their homework when deciding not to attempt a buyout of those town homes.

[rds70]

A new multi-family project in the Denver portion of the Tech Denver at 4552 S. Ulster. 12 stories, 236 units, Legacy Partners:

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by rds70

A new multi-family project in the Denver portion of the Tech Denver at 4552 S. Ulster. 12 stories, 236 units, Legacy Partners:

that's one helluva render.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I have my mind blown every time I drive by 38th and Blake with the number of cranes in action. I wonder how it compares to peak Union Station construction in the mid 2010s. Does anyone know if the Formativ project (former WTC) is still going forward. That is a prime lot.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by rds70

A new multi-family project in the Denver portion of the Tech Denver at 4552 S. Ulster. 12 stories, 236 units, Legacy Partners:

These are the home run infill projects I get excited about. Some areas have a critical mass of momentum and that's great and they'll keep going. Other places are ripe for development/redevelopment but the zoning isn't right or it's on the wrong side of the tracks (ie not Denver) or requires a difficult parcel split with an inflexible owner, etc etc. DTC is a great horizontal mixed use area that could use more multifamily and I'm glad to see this happening - wish it would even more. DTC might even be a full 15 minute community at this point.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

that's one helluva render.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I was just looking through ePermits and I noticed this project at 13th and Cherokee. It is a 17 story apartment that is making its way through design review. It is interesting how granular things become on purely aesthetic matters, like how thick the coats of of stucco must be applied. Here's a photo. This is one of my most hated parking lots so I'll be happy to see it go:

[TakeFive]

Small Sample Size but it's interesting none-the-less

We've been aware that the Pandemic was having an impact on migration patterns but on Dec 21, 2021 the U.S. Census Bureau released their 2020-2021 migration results.

This is what it looks like: Note: this is by percentage and the Census Bureau also has the numeric changes.



Notable Takeaways:

• The South was the biggest beneficiary of population increases.
• The Northeast region was the biggest loser
• The West saw a gain in population (especially the intermountain west)
• New York had the largest annual and cumulative numeric population decline
• Three states had populations above 20 million in 2021: California (39,237,836), Texas (29,527,941) and Florida (21,781,128). New York dropped below 20 million people in the last year, decreasing from 20,154,933 to 19,835,913.
• The largest net domestic migration gains were in Florida (220,890), Texas (170,307) and Arizona (93,026).

Also interesting is that the top states for losing population were New York, California and Illinois.

The states of Washington, Oregon and Colorado could be described as 'cooling down' but still growing.

If you're into colors, of the Top Ten states that added population eight were red and two, Nevada and North Caroline are bluish-purple.

Here’s Why California Is Losing Population for the First Time
December 31, 2021 By Joel Kotkin, Wendell Cox - DailyBeast via Yahoo

California is suffering a major demographic reversal, one that threatens both the state’s economic future and the durability of its progressive model.

The numbers speak for themselves: The Golden State’s population has started declining for the first time, with new data from the state Department of Finance showing a population loss of 173,000 for the year ended July 1, 2021

Boosters argue this is inconsequential but:

This isn’t the Rust Belt of the 1970s, but the exodus out of the state and especially its metropolitan areas seems to be accelerating.

Some California boosters comfort themselves by insisting the people leaving are mostly poor or old. But an analysis of IRS data from 2012 to 2019 indicates that 85 percent of those leaving are in their prime earning years of 25 to 64.

IMO California will continue to lose a increasing part of their 'tax base' as companies continue to move to more business-friendly states. That said: "Thank God for Tech" when it comes to the Golden State.

-------------------------
As to 2021's best Denver completions

I especially like Market Station and the Thomspon Hotel but McGregor Square may have the most impact. But you can't ignore the splendor of Block 162. Of the many completions in 2021 it's hard to find a genuine Dog.

[twister244]

This is crazy.......

https://www.westword.com/news/denver...pdate-13197594

[TakeFive]

Couple of things:

Originally Posted by twister244

This is crazy.......

https://www.westword.com/news/denver...pdate-13197594

I recall that there was a significant uptick in multi-million $ home sales last year including a bunch over $5 million. This can certainly impact those average statistics a lot.

With respect to the year-end rush, these buyers were presumably wanting to beat the expected uptick in interest rates that was all the buzz. In hindsight they were smart buyers as interest rates are indeed going up.

Things can easily change and there's a lot of uncertainty with the economy. But, there's still a lot of 'helicopter' money being inputted into the economy so it's always tricky to make predictions. I do expect the 'helicopter' money to lessen going forward and with inflation it won't go as far. I have also read that there are now more people with less ability to spend as all that money they had socked away dwindles, especially if they're not working.

My best guess is that real estate will cool off some over the next year - at least in Denver but we'll see.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Couple of things:


I recall that there was a significant uptick in multi-million $ home sales last year including a bunch over $5 million. This can certainly impact those average statistics a lot.

With respect to the year-end rush, these buyers were presumably wanting to beat the expected uptick in interest rates that was all the buzz. In hindsight they were smart buyers as interest rates are indeed going up.

Things can easily change and there's a lot of uncertainty with the economy. But, there's still a lot of 'helicopter' money being inputted into the economy so it's always tricky to make predictions. I do expect the 'helicopter' money to lessen going forward and with inflation it won't go as far. I have also read that there are now more people with less ability to spend as all that money they had socked away dwindles, especially if they're not working.

My best guess is that real estate will cool off some over the next year - at least in Denver but we'll see.

Interest rates really do need to go up. We are closing next week on a refi of our house that we bought a whopping two years ago. Going to pull out enough money to add a bathroom in the basement, and it still lowers our payments by $250/month. All possible because the new appraisal says that's the math at the 70% LTV max. It's just bonkers. Ironically, the new assessment from the City that came across, what, six months ago, showed we had lost a little value in the prior three years. Now, I don't know what the assessor's office was smoking, but the city is leaving an awful lot of money on the table being conservative with their valuations.

[Ndj]

Looks like there may be a crane going up at the La Loma site. Hard to tell exactly where it is from my apartment.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

maybe an up-to-date full color render will make the Kairoi design look better, but I was never a fan of balconies completely surrounded by cement & metal railings, too much sunshine blocking.

If I understand you correctly then I totally disagree. I think "stick-on" balconies that jut out are awful.

Higher-end apartments (like in Cherry Creek for example) always have recessed balconies. On corners however, then it's normal to see two exposed sides. Many of the new projects have used a half and half approach where balconies are half recessed and half jutting out. That's not so terrible.

Part of enjoying a balcony would be seasonal, I suspect. In summer shade is a wonderful thing. West facing units can be depressing in the summer and west facing units will also have higher 'cooling' costs as it's exposed to direct sunlight as the sun is going down at the hottest time of day.

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

I feel like the Kairoi will be interesting -- and they seem to put out a good product.

Route40 could also be interesting, or a complete disaster depending on the materials.

Either way it will be transformational for Colfax. First market rate apartments in decades on Colfax between Broadway and York. The idea of someone gazing from their pool onto that papa johns parking lot is crazy. And progress.

I would agree re: Kairoi projects.

Although these projects might not be as 'prominent' I enjoy the good news along Colfax.

Originally Posted by laniroj

While I am not a big fan of this style architecture, I really appreciate it for this location. IMO this is an excellent nod to the 50's and mic-century culture Colfax is known for (you know, after the greatest generation bulldozed all of the mansions in the 50's). It's very motor lodgy reminiscent.

^^ THIS