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View Poll Results: Who are you voting for?
LPC 50 40.32%
CPC 22 17.74%
NDP 35 28.23%
PPC 8 6.45%
BQ 4 3.23%
GP 4 3.23%
Other 1 0.81%
Voters: 124. You may not vote on this poll

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  #481  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 9:55 PM
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I would agree with that.

The Liberal party seemed kind of deflated after it lost. The expectations placed on Paul Martin were so vast that it was hard to believe his government flamed out after just a couple of years. There weren't really up and comers waiting in the wings... the leadership races felt like choosing the least-worst option as compared to someone truly impressive.

Although I suppose that in some respects, you could probably say the same thing about the Conservative Party now, including their most recent leadership.
The same thing happened with Martin as with Turner.

Charismatic, elder stateman, and long serving PM steps down and places his political rival/leader candidate/former finance minister/Liberal factional rival as the next PM. Turner got destroyed by Mulroney. Martin at least won 1 minority, but lost to Harper in 2006.

I don't want the Turner/Martin situation to happen to Freeland, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me.
     
     
  #482  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 9:59 PM
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Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
The same thing happened with Martin as with Turner.

Charismatic, elder stateman, and long serving PM steps down and places his political rival/leader candidate/former finance minister/Liberal factional rival as the next PM. Turner got destroyed by Mulroney. Martin at least won 1 minority, but lost to Harper in 2006.

I don't want the Turner/Martin situation to happen to Freeland, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me.
The parallels are certainly interesting and I doubt Freeland has anywhere near enough charisma to overcome 'tired 8-10 year' government stigma.

Kathleen Wynne did it in Ontario during 2014 though.
     
     
  #483  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 10:03 PM
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Freeland and Martin also share that they're both uncharismatic, intelligent, technochrats
     
     
  #484  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I would agree with that.

The Liberal party seemed kind of deflated after it lost. The expectations placed on Paul Martin were so vast that it was hard to believe his government flamed out after just a couple of years. There weren't really up and comers waiting in the wings... the leadership races felt like choosing the least-worst option as compared to someone truly impressive.

Although I suppose that in some respects, you could probably say the same thing about the Conservative Party now, including their most recent leadership.
I follow Gerald Butts and David Herle on Twitter. I thinks it's really important to understand how the tools of the trade have changed for political parties. They have abilities they just didn't have, even 10-15 years ago. And the only limit here is how much their base is willing to let them move to win. I suspect O'Toole's consultants did the exact same exercise. Hence the climate plan and sudden pivot to pro-worker (only in the private sector) and reduced emphasis on austerity.

Herle:
Quote:
If I’d known you could win an election with 31% we’d have done it in 2006
https://twitter.com/TheHerleBurly/status/1440165857649324036?s=19

Butts:
Quote:
Vote efficiency isn’t accidental. All three Trudeau Liberal campaigns were among the most efficient in Canadian history. The unsung team of super geniuses put together and led by @tompitfield at Data Sciences deserves a lot more credit than they’ve ever received. #Elxn44 (43 and 42)

Campaigns are a ruthless optimization exercise: where will your incremental investment drive the maximum return in real time, especially at the end. Elexns 42 and 43 were amazing. But the more I look at last night’s returns the more I’m awestruck. #Elxn44

My buddy David tweeted this funny observation last night, but it makes a serious point. You probably couldn’t do this in 2006 because Tom, Sean, Megan and John hadn’t invented it yet.

Anyway, anyone who’s ever run a campaign will know what I mean. This will 100% be studied around the world.
https://twitter.com/gmbutts/status/1440347519284760580?s=19

If all parties are doing this, the implications are that we will forever see minority governments with the leading party winning with 25-30% of the vote. This will only change in break out years where some big issue moves the electorate.
     
     
  #485  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 10:53 PM
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My FB feed is just chock-full of distraught Conservative voters wondering how they didn't win. "Nobody seemed to even like the Liberals, how did this happen?" and so on. These people have been stuck in their own echo chamber, posting daily childish and factually incorrect memes about JT and the Liberals. Liberal supporters seem to just sit back and not say anything. I was pretty apathetic this election, but this part has been satisfying to see.
My feed is much of the same. I grew up in Alliston/Barrie ON area. Most of my friend list are made up of white small town folk who post their weekly anti-Trudeau meme/article. They assume everyone must feel the same way as them. I often point out in discussions that they need to broaden their horizons and realize once you get into big city centres the mindset changes.

My experience has been that Conservatives are usually the loudest most obnoxious debaters and incorrectly assume the silent people in the room agree with them... (they don't). Then when things don't work out their way many result to "fraud" "fixed" . I've had a few people already go down that road on my Insta and Facebook.
     
     
  #486  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 10:55 PM
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Also in my experience the loudest are usually dudebros. The fact that women vote doesn't seem to occur to many of them.

It's outright crazy to them that somebody's wife/sister/mom may care about things like $10/day childcare or access to abortion or even cancel culture (an example where suburban women can actually be surprisingly conservative).

Heck, this forum is a sausage fest that is substantially unrepresentative of how a lot of women might approach an election.
     
     
  #487  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 10:58 PM
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Also in my experience the loudest are usually dudebros. The fact that women vote doesn't seem to occur to many of them.
Oh yes, I come across many of these characters at the gym haha.
     
     
  #488  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 10:58 PM
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I think everyone is a bit insular politically. I had friends thinking a Conservative majority in the basis of their gun policy.

My wife woke up disappointed it wasn't an NDP government.
     
     
  #489  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 11:01 PM
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I get insularity in social circles. But I don't get how many folks don't actually seem to realize their mom/sister/wife/daughter have political interests. Half the country is not a small blindspot.
     
     
  #490  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 11:47 PM
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people are claiming this election was rigged. one guy posted a clip from TV that showed a news guy put up the wrong graphic (it was showing a riding had been won by the Liberals) before the votes were counted. therefore this election is rigged.

Anyway, can anyone explain to me what Western alienation is and why the West should separate?

I grew up in a small redneck strong conservative region here in BC and the people commenting on Facebook today are livid that Trudeau won and blah blah blah we need to separate etc. Quebec and Ontario can't decide my life for me blah blah blah

....

Conservatives biggest losers in B.C. on election night
Conservatives lost seats in Greater Vancouver to Liberals, NDP
By Nelson Bennett | September 21, 2021

https://biv.com/article/2021/09/conservatives-biggest-losers-bc-election-night
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  #491  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2021, 11:52 PM
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Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
I think everyone is a bit insular politically. I had friends thinking a Conservative majority in the basis of their gun policy.

My wife woke up disappointed it wasn't an NDP government.
If she was expecting an NDP government she might as well have woken up on Fantasy Island.
     
     
  #492  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 8:09 AM
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Originally Posted by SpongeG View Post
people are claiming this election was rigged. one guy posted a clip from TV that showed a news guy put up the wrong graphic (it was showing a riding had been won by the Liberals) before the votes were counted. therefore this election is rigged.

Anyway, can anyone explain to me what Western alienation is and why the West should separate?

I grew up in a small redneck strong conservative region here in BC and the people commenting on Facebook today are livid that Trudeau won and blah blah blah we need to separate etc. Quebec and Ontario can't decide my life for me blah blah blah

....

Conservatives biggest losers in B.C. on election night
Conservatives lost seats in Greater Vancouver to Liberals, NDP
By Nelson Bennett | September 21, 2021

https://biv.com/article/2021/09/conservatives-biggest-losers-bc-election-night
Western alienation is definitely real. It’s impossible for it not to exist in Canada, even if a good portion of it is self-inflicted.

It’s natural for people who live outside a federation’s core to feel dissatisfied with imperial rule, especially when they are linguistic, cultural, and political differences between them and the core. That’s true of basically everywhere outside southern Ontario.

In Western Canada’s case, there are a number of other factors that exponentially increase this sentiment:

- Election results are known before their votes are counted, a sharp contrast to the foreign system they would naturally be most familiar with, the United States.
- They often don’t vote for the governing party, meaning they may not have ministerial representation in their own federal government. The Liberal AB just elected will almost certainly be a Minister. So that province with millions of people will probably have the same amount of ministerial influence as Newfoundland with one.
- That lack of influence, which is the main self-inflicted part, ensures the federal government remains indifferent or even hostile to niche local issues that only matter in the west.

There’s also a groupthink, lockstep thing going on that’s very counter-productive. The West’s relationship with Ottawa is very similar to Newfoundland’s with Quebec. They feel wronged, it impacts their decision making even on matters that have nothing to do with Ottawa. It becomes a matter of national identity to hate Ottawa, and the feeling isn’t entirely undeserved - but the response chosen can never be productive.
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  #493  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 1:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I follow Gerald Butts and David Herle on Twitter. I thinks it's really important to understand how the tools of the trade have changed for political parties. They have abilities they just didn't have, even 10-15 years ago. And the only limit here is how much their base is willing to let them move to win. I suspect O'Toole's consultants did the exact same exercise. Hence the climate plan and sudden pivot to pro-worker (only in the private sector) and reduced emphasis on austerity.

Herle:


https://twitter.com/TheHerleBurly/status/1440165857649324036?s=19

Butts:


https://twitter.com/gmbutts/status/1440347519284760580?s=19

If all parties are doing this, the implications are that we will forever see minority governments with the leading party winning with 25-30% of the vote. This will only change in break out years where some big issue moves the electorate.
I follow Butts on Twitter too and those remarks of his caught my attention. I'd be curious to know about some of the methods used to maximize vote efficiency. For instance, I live in one of the swingiest swing ridings in Canada (Winnipeg South, always elected someone from the governing party since 1988) and I did not really notice any kind of full-court press in the area in spite of the fact that the Liberals won last time by a narrow margin.
     
     
  #494  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 1:48 PM
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I follow Butts on Twitter too and those remarks of his caught my attention. I'd be curious to know about some of the methods used to maximize vote efficiency. For instance, I live in one of the swingiest swing ridings in Canada (Winnipeg South, always elected someone from the governing party since 1988) and I did not really notice any kind of full-court press in the area in spite of the fact that the Liberals won last time by a narrow margin.
Really depends on what sort of data they're working with. They probably have very good voter lists, past donor lists, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpongeG
people are claiming this election was rigged. one guy posted a clip from TV that showed a news guy put up the wrong graphic (it was showing a riding had been won by the Liberals) before the votes were counted. therefore this election is rigged.
Stop giving this nonsense airtime.
     
     
  #495  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 2:33 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Western alienation is definitely real. It’s impossible for it not to exist in Canada, even if a good portion of it is self-inflicted.

It’s natural for people who live outside a federation’s core to feel dissatisfied with imperial rule, especially when they are linguistic, cultural, and political differences between them and the core. That’s true of basically everywhere outside southern Ontario.

In Western Canada’s case, there are a number of other factors that exponentially increase this sentiment:

- Election results are known before their votes are counted, a sharp contrast to the foreign system they would naturally be most familiar with, the United States.
- They often don’t vote for the governing party, meaning they may not have ministerial representation in their own federal government. The Liberal AB just elected will almost certainly be a Minister. So that province with millions of people will probably have the same amount of ministerial influence as Newfoundland with one.
- That lack of influence, which is the main self-inflicted part, ensures the federal government remains indifferent or even hostile to niche local issues that only matter in the west.

There’s also a groupthink, lockstep thing going on that’s very counter-productive. The West’s relationship with Ottawa is very similar to Newfoundland’s with Quebec. They feel wronged, it impacts their decision making even on matters that have nothing to do with Ottawa. It becomes a matter of national identity to hate Ottawa, and the feeling isn’t entirely undeserved - but the response chosen can never be productive.
Western alienation is very real and in many ways is similar to how those in the Maritimes and Newfoundland feel regarding central Canada. The plain reality is about 60% of Canadians live in a (relatively) small band from Windsor to Quebec City. Politics is absolutely dominated by the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal elites. I mean, I live almost 3000 km away from Ottawa. That's the same distance as Lisbon to Berlin.

It really goes back to before the prairies even became provinces. Louis Riel was killed 136 years ago and his views can at least partially be considered Western Alienation and resentment at Ottawa imposition. Our entire political elite from the 1880s until the Depression were either UK or Ontario born. Saskatchewan and Alberta became two separate provinces (instead of one large one) was to subdue the political influence of the prairies.

The Depression hit the prairies harder than Ontario and Quebec. The helped created populist movements in the CCF and Social Credit parties. Those alternative parties did far better in western Canada than central Canada (at least, pre-1960) and can largely be attributed to westerners feeling the PCs and Liberals were not representing them.

Things got a lot worse in the PET days, with the NEP still being a source of contention to this day. We've basically been dealing with the repercussions of this era through its manifestation of Reform->Alliance->Further right Conservatives to this day.

The prairies have large agricultural economies and heavy reliance on natural resources. This will always put us at odds with a largely urban and service economy of Central Canada. It should be no surprise that the further the economies go from resource-based the further they go from the far-right rural mindset (see, Winnipeg, Victoria, Vancouver).

Even things like Bell buying out MTS are seen as Central Canada taking economic advantage of western Canadians.

Not all of us feel this way (I certainly don't), but it's hard to not empathize with someone in the oil, wheat, or potash world who looks at both the federal Conservatives and federal Liberals as groups that don't care about him.

Equalization payments are part of it. Quebec politics are too. But there has been a steady undercurrent of western alienation that ebbs and flows on the times, and has been here since Confederation.

It's just the simple reality of how our country was settled, is developed, and the economic realities of diverse regions.
     
     
  #496  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 2:42 PM
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I follow Butts on Twitter too and those remarks of his caught my attention. I'd be curious to know about some of the methods used to maximize vote efficiency. For instance, I live in one of the swingiest swing ridings in Canada (Winnipeg South, always elected someone from the governing party since 1988) and I did not really notice any kind of full-court press in the area in spite of the fact that the Liberals won last time by a narrow margin.
I suspect there's some deep microtargeting with voter lists and demographics telling them where to deploy resources. But also, they probably roll up the data to drive platform development and advertising. At least that's the sense I get from his comments.

I'm sure all the major parties do this. The CPC hired the Brexit guys and I'm guessing their pivot to a pro-worker platform was data driven. The Liberals just seem better at it because:

1) The Liberals are less ideological than other parties. So they can move to where the voters are very easily.

2) ROI is probably much higher on all these efforts in urban and suburban areas just because of density. And even better if they know which street to target to get out the vote.
     
     
  #497  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 2:46 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
- Election results are known before their votes are counted, a sharp contrast to the foreign system they would naturally be most familiar with, the United States.
All the West Coast states in the US would disagree with your notion. The only difference in the US, is that they are voting for multiple things at the same time, so there's less of an emphasis on just presidential results.
     
     
  #498  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 3:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
The Liberals just seem better at it because:

1) The Liberals are less ideological than other parties. So they can move to where the voters are very easily.

2) ROI is probably much higher on all these efforts in urban and suburban areas just because of density. And even better if they know which street to target to get out the vote.
3. A large block of Liberal votes come from New Canadians, and the way social capital works in immigrant communities - religious institutions, extended families, more time spent in communal environments, etc. - means that the marginal effort spent convincing one person to vote Liberal translates to more turnout and votes.
     
     
  #499  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 3:50 PM
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Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
Western alienation is very real and in many ways is similar to how those in the Maritimes and Newfoundland feel regarding central Canada. The plain reality is about 60% of Canadians live in a (relatively) small band from Windsor to Quebec City. Politics is absolutely dominated by the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal elites. I mean, I live almost 3000 km away from Ottawa. That's the same distance as Lisbon to Berlin.

It really goes back to before the prairies even became provinces. Louis Riel was killed 136 years ago and his views can at least partially be considered Western Alienation and resentment at Ottawa imposition. Our entire political elite from the 1880s until the Depression were either UK or Ontario born. Saskatchewan and Alberta became two separate provinces (instead of one large one) was to subdue the political influence of the prairies.

The Depression hit the prairies harder than Ontario and Quebec. The helped created populist movements in the CCF and Social Credit parties. Those alternative parties did far better in western Canada than central Canada (at least, pre-1960) and can largely be attributed to westerners feeling the PCs and Liberals were not representing them.

Things got a lot worse in the PET days, with the NEP still being a source of contention to this day. We've basically been dealing with the repercussions of this era through its manifestation of Reform->Alliance->Further right Conservatives to this day.

The prairies have large agricultural economies and heavy reliance on natural resources. This will always put us at odds with a largely urban and service economy of Central Canada. It should be no surprise that the further the economies go from resource-based the further they go from the far-right rural mindset (see, Winnipeg, Victoria, Vancouver).

Even things like Bell buying out MTS are seen as Central Canada taking economic advantage of western Canadians.

Not all of us feel this way (I certainly don't), but it's hard to not empathize with someone in the oil, wheat, or potash world who looks at both the federal Conservatives and federal Liberals as groups that don't care about him.

Equalization payments are part of it. Quebec politics are too. But there has been a steady undercurrent of western alienation that ebbs and flows on the times, and has been here since Confederation.

It's just the simple reality of how our country was settled, is developed, and the economic realities of diverse regions.
Good post. Western Canada is a colony of Canada; when you get into it, it's pretty obvious why some of the deep-seated problems in the prairie provinces are so stubborn--they're baked into how the provinces were created. Manitoba's provincial government, for one, was created to placate a rebellious population. Louis Riel was murdered as a traitor. How can you rebel against a country nobody asked you to participate in? How can you betray a country to which you never belonged?

Strangely, the people who shout the loudest about western alienation are the winners of colonialism, and the first to claim that colonialism isn't a problem in Western Canada. If western separatists ever stop being racist and fundamentally selfish for long enough to unite with the First Nations against their common enemy, watch out.
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  #500  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2021, 4:04 PM
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