DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Denver]

Per the Davis Partnership Page, One River North (3930 Blake Street) has broken ground.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

715,522, an increase of over 115,000. It's pretty amazing that Denver grew by 20% in one decade, considering we started the decade with what was then the city's highest population ever, and with none of the growth due to annexations.

The 115,364 added during the 2010s is by far Denver's largest single numeric growth decade in its 16-decade history. The next closest was the 1940s when Denver grew by 93,353 (which definitely included annexations).

Amazing stats. I would like to add one more, since there is one community that holds us back in some key ways (i.e. transit) more than any other.

Boulder city, Colorado
Population, Census, April 1, 2020 108,250
Population, Census, April 1, 2010 97,385
Change 10,865

That's right folks, Denver's one decade increase is larger than the total population of Boulder.

[kemachs]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

I don't think the data really backs up this narrative.

Wall Street isn’t to blame for the chaotic housing market: The boogeyman isn’t who you want it to be.
Vox.com

Very informative read - thanks for posting. Gives a new perspective on the situation, for sure, but doesn't make me less upset about Denver's housing market. lol

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Amazing stats. I would like to add one more, since there is one community that holds us back in some key ways (i.e. transit) more than any other.

Boulder city, Colorado
Population, Census, April 1, 2020 108,250
Population, Census, April 1, 2010 97,385
Change 10,865

That's right folks, Denver's one decade increase is larger than the total population of Boulder.

Just the way they want it, I presume! But I'm guessing much of that growth pressure went into the Louisville/Lafayette/Broomfield populations, right? Drove up 36 yesterday into Boulder, and had to do a double take at all of the new development in the vicinity of 1stBank Center.

Edit: looking into the numbers on census website, really only Broomfield beats Boulder's numbers at a 14,604 increase. I'm surprised the other two haven't grown as much...are they just as anti-growth and anti-density as Queen Boulder herself? Speaking of which, my partner and I were walking down the Pearl St. Mall and noticed that the Old Chicago building is being replaced with.....drumroll... a 2-story retail building. Wasted opportunity.

[TakeFive]

Passing the Torch

Source

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

715,522, an increase of over 115,000. It's pretty amazing that Denver grew by 20% in one decade, considering we started the decade with what was then the city's highest population ever, and with none of the growth due to annexations.

If you weren't born yesterday, even if it was in the rain, then it's fun and amazing to think back through the decades that Ken references.

It was like a confluence of a perfect storm
Following the Great Recession, nobody predicted the Great Millennial Migration into Denver or other (SW) western cities. It skipped over Phoenix, Las Vegas and Inland California who were suffering the excesses of the previous decade's migration westward. Instead they landed in Denver, Austin, Dallas, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Portland pushed by a healthy portion of techies.

What will this decade bring?
Likely much of the same if at a more measured pace. The percentage increase won't likely be as strong but the number of newcomers could approach the last decade.

Great Thanks and Appreciation for a couple of special people

and Best of Luck in the future to Tami Door who is moving on from her stellar leadership of the Downtown Denver Partnership.

“I have been giving everything I have for 17 years, and this city has grown immensely,” Door said. “There wasn’t a day when I haven’t given everything to make sure we were thinking big and bold.”

The other significant contribution if not as recognized goes to Kelly Brough who is moving on from her position as CEO of the Denver Chamber of Commerce.

A dyslexic youth who grew up on public assistance in Montana, Brough was not, in many ways, the stereotypical leader of a business organization. But she sought the job, she noted in announcing her move Wednesday, because of her belief that there is “nothing more powerful at advancing opportunities for families than a really good job,” and she’s used her time in the position to accomplish a number of goals.

Brough left the Denver city government in 2009 for the position after serving three years as chief of staff to then-mayor John Hickenlooper, and she insisted the chamber focus on fights that didn’t tie directly to companies’ bottom lines.

And the best candidate for Mayor in 2023

is Kelly Brough. She gets all ten of my votes.

“It is impossible to list all that we have accomplished together these past dozen years..." “I am a better person because of the members of this organization.”

Her 12 years at the chamber are likely to be remembered for the organization’s omnipresence as a major voice in virtually every important issue at the city and state level. “When most people think of the term leadership, they think of Kelly Brough. Kelly has been a catalyst for growth in the Denver metro region. Her contributions to the chamber will be felt for years to come,” Rogers said in a news release.

[TakeFive]

My Take

There's been a pieces in the DBJ and elsewhere as well as comments here about the trend of investing in single family homes by various interests.

'It's staggering.' Equity floods built-to-rent space as some lenders remain hesitant about sector
Aug 5, 2021 By Ashley Fahey – Real Estate Editor, The Business Journals

It's a bit different now, with 80,000-plus build-to-rent units expected to deliver nationally this year. "On the housing for-sale side, there's just not enough product," Merrell said. "People need a place to live and built-to-rent is filling that gap."

Just Today: https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2021/08/13/build-to-rent-denver-single-family-homes.html

Billions of dollars are flowing into single-family rental homes, an asset class that rose to prominence in the aftermath of the Great Recession and is now at the center of another boom.

While there's reportedly some random buying of SFH's... Hmm; gosh; what could possibly go wrong? Their timing maybe?

More typically it's the new build-to-rent neighborhoods.

That year, he received a call from an old college friend, Josh Hartmann, the founder and CEO of a build-for-rent development company based out of Phoenix called NexMetro Communities. NexMetro now has 40 projects and more than 4,800 homes completed, under construction or in development. An additional 20 projects are in pre-development.

The company’s first project in the Denver metro, Avilla Buffalo Run, opened in Commerce City in 2019. It was followed by Avilla Prairie Center and Avilla Eastlake, located in Brighton and Thornton, respectively. Combined, the three communities offer about 500 rental homes.

Let's step back from the edge

There's no doubt that after being born in Phoenix that building new neighborhoods of rental homes has spread across the country.

But how many of you know, or know somebody who knows anybody that has rented one of these homes in new build-to-rent projects? Bueller?

That's my point! Despite the bluster this is but a tiny fraction of the SFH market.

It's (primarily) a Blue Collar family or mid-market niche

There must be hundreds of job descriptions for people who make a solid living from middle managers to tradesman whether electricians or car mechanics.

Many people retire with a couple of revenue streams that while not being wealthy provide good security. Many of these same people want to go hunting and teach bunt how it's done. Maybe they love to fish and see the country. They may still want a SFH even if modest; renting a maintenance-free, no worry home make tons of sense for those who want to get away.

These new rental neighborhood easily fill a niche for those who couldn't care less about the city center other than to watch a sporting event. It's the new Missing Middle homes for those who don't want to live in an apartment. In this sense it solves a problem as apposed to creating a problem.

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Amazing stats. I would like to add one more, since there is one community that holds us back in some key ways (i.e. transit) more than any other.

Boulder city, Colorado
Population, Census, April 1, 2020 108,250
Population, Census, April 1, 2010 97,385
Change 10,865

That's right folks, Denver's one decade increase is larger than the total population of Boulder.

How does Boulder “hold us back”?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by AlSmithee

How does Boulder “hold us back”?

We’re committing to spend $1.4B on a train that goes to a town that grew less in a decade than Denver does in a year.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

We’re committing to spend $1.4B on a train that goes to a town that grew less in a decade than Denver does in a year.

And committed to doing absolutely nothing else on transit, at all, until that train is built. With a Governor willing to bully anybody at the transit agency who would have the audacity to question whether that line makes any sense as a transportation investment. Which has the entire metro area locked up at a standstill. We are probably a decade away from even thinking about the next generation of transit investment because of that damn line. For the many anti-car folks on here - think about that - we are ten years away from ten years of study before five years of construction to start building transit that might start to make up for a 75 year head start car infrastructure has. Because of that damn train, it is perfectly credible to say the Denver metro area will never ever have transit that can move the needle on how people get around day-to-day. It's just not feasible given where we are today. (And math for Denver-proper is daunting - it's just hard to do much more than a robust bus system with Denver's tax base alone; we're just too small.) It's why nobody even blinked about doing a thing for transit in the state transportation bill - we have to waste $1.4 billion before we can spend the next dollar, which makes anything else look terrible, both politically an as a transportation matter. Hence, EVs, AVs, and road investment. That's the future. RTD is dead. Long live RTD.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

We’re committing to spend $1.4B on a train that goes to a town that grew less in a decade than Denver does in a year.

Boulder also has been one of the primary drivers of suburban sprawl, traffic, and car dependency along the front range.

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

We’re committing to spend $1.4B on a train that goes to a town that grew less in a decade than Denver does in a year.

What other lines should be finished first?

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

And committed to doing absolutely nothing else on transit, at all, until that train is built. With a Governor willing to bully anybody at the transit agency who would have the audacity to question whether that line makes any sense as a transportation investment. Which has the entire metro area locked up at a standstill. We are probably a decade away from even thinking about the next generation of transit investment because of that damn line. For the many anti-car folks on here - think about that - we are ten years away from ten years of study before five years of construction to start building transit that might start to make up for a 75 year head start car infrastructure has. Because of that damn train, it is perfectly credible to say the Denver metro area will never ever have transit that can move the needle on how people get around day-to-day. It's just not feasible given where we are today. (And math for Denver-proper is daunting - it's just hard to do much more than a robust bus system with Denver's tax base alone; we're just too small.) It's why nobody even blinked about doing a thing for transit in the state transportation bill - we have to waste $1.4 billion before we can spend the next dollar, which makes anything else look terrible, both politically an as a transportation matter. Hence, EVs, AVs, and road investment. That's the future. RTD is dead. Long live RTD.

Thanks for the comments.

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Boulder also has been one of the primary drivers of suburban sprawl, traffic, and car dependency along the front range.

What should Boulder be doing to address those problems?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by AlSmithee

What other lines should be finished first?

Pretty much all of them. The B Line should not be finished as currently proposed.

As for what Boulder should do, they need to allow growth above the current asinine growth limit.

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Pretty much all of them. The B Line should not be finished as currently proposed.

As for what Boulder should do, they need to allow growth above the current asinine growth limit.

My understanding is that the limit hasn't been an issue, according to this article

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/16/boulder-1-percent-growth-limit-front-range-controversy/

But for the nearly six years from 2014 through this week, the rule has had a limited impact in Boulder. Hundreds of dwellings have been approved through exemptions for certain housing types, while new residences that count toward the annual growth cap never came close to approaching it, according to city data on the rule, which works by each year making available a certain number of “allocations,” or stamps of approval for new units to receive building permits and ensure compliance with the 1% limit.

Even when combining new homes exempt from the growth limit with those that count toward the 1% cap, the city approved units equaling just 67.8% of 3,529 allocations available over the six-year period. Development projects are seldom held up by the growth management rule, officials said.

[rds70]

Originally Posted by Denver

Per the Davis Partnership Page, One River North (3930 Blake Street) has broken ground.

It certainly looks like shoring/foundation work is about to begin. Some pics from Saturday:

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by AlSmithee

My understanding is that the limit hasn't been an issue, according to this article

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/16/boulder-1-percent-growth-limit-front-range-controversy/

The limit hasn’t been an issue thanks to the zoning and other bureaucratic red tape that makes it impossible to build anything but a $2 million+ house. 60,000 people commute (mostly by car) to work everyday in a city of 100,000. That’s fucking crazy. And it’s not because they don’t want to live in Boulder, it’s because Boulder has placed the burden of providing any sort of attainable housing for its workforce on its suburban neighbors.

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

The limit hasn’t been an issue thanks to the zoning and other bureaucratic red tape that makes it impossible to build anything but a $2 million+ house. 60,000 people commute (mostly by car) to work everyday in a city of 100,000. That’s fucking crazy. And it’s not because they don’t want to live in Boulder, it’s because Boulder has placed the burden of providing any sort of attainable housing for its workforce on its suburban neighbors.

So what should Boulder do?

[ams5280]

Originally Posted by AlSmithee

So what should Boulder do?

Build more housing. Especially near downtown, campus, and transit.

A great example is a lot of 15th and Canyon containing a liquor store. A student housing developer purchased the lot and believes they can fit 150 units on the lot with height restrictions and linkage fees. The lot sold for $16.6 million, which works out to $111,000 in land costs per unit alone. Add in a $30/SF linkage fee[/URL], and that’s ~$126,000 per 500 SF unit before you’ve even factored in design, permitting, construction, etc. Think you’ll ever have anything close to affordable without massive subsidies?

No to mention, when supportive youth housing was proposed close to downtown Boulder, the neighbors were quick to say, “We support this, but NOT HERE, NOT IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD”.

Even advocating for a better B line that actually goes where people want to go would be useful. Instead, all these people who say they’ll ride the train couldn’t even locate Boulder Junction on a Map and I seriously doubt it will have an impact on commutes.

Instead, they’re focused on things like preserving a campus-adjacent strip mall to maintain “shopping opportunities” when it’s mainly fast food, coffee shops, and couldn’t support a grocery store (Base Mar Shopping Center).

[mhays]

The linkage fee probably applies to common areas too. If 150 sf, add $4,500.

Boulder could upzone, like those absurd four-story limits that apparently apply in core areas.

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by ams5280

Build more housing. Especially near downtown, campus, and transit.

A great example is a lot of 15th and Canyon containing a liquor store. A student housing developer purchased the lot and believes they can fit 150 units on the lot with height restrictions and linkage fees. The lot sold for $16.6 million, which works out to $111,000 in land costs per unit alone. Add in a $30/SF linkage fee[/URL], and that’s ~$126,000 per 500 SF unit before you’ve even factored in design, permitting, construction, etc. Think you’ll ever have anything close to affordable without massive subsidies?

The $15000 fee per 500 sq ft won't make the difference between selling/not selling - the developer will simply add it to the price.

Boulder is a desirable place. Desirability and affordability tend to trend opposite to each other.

No to mention, when supportive youth housing was proposed close to downtown Boulder, the neighbors were quick to say, “We support this, but NOT HERE, NOT IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD”.

If you look at where students dominate and where the police are busiest, there's a big overlap. Not everyone living in Boulder wants to be around the students - who are continually "refreshed" with new young adults spreading their wings (and proving that young adults often make very bad decisions) each and every year.

Also, since Boulder is pretty much held hostage to what CU wants, as CU keeps increasing its enrollment cap and raising tuition, Boulder is subject to more and more wealthier and wealthier students. There's nothing Boulder can do about it, either.

Even advocating for a better B line that actually goes where people want to go would be useful. Instead, all these people who say they’ll ride the train couldn’t even locate Boulder Junction on a Map and I seriously doubt it will have an impact on commutes.

Perhaps.

Instead, they’re focused on things like preserving a campus-adjacent strip mall to maintain “shopping opportunities” when it’s mainly fast food, coffee shops, and couldn’t support a grocery store (Base Mar Shopping Center).

There's another grocery store (Sprouts) 1/2 mile directly to the east, and of course, the large Williams Village housing complex literally next door.