Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[YOWflier]

Pretty sure nobody’s suggesting they base all 30 here. Besides that, it’s 30 jets over who knows how many years encompasses the delivery schedule.

An approach of having multiple focus cities in AC/WS/TS back yards will ruin Porter.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by thewave46

They're taking 30 jets. They can't be basing them all out of Ottawa.

They are also expanding to western Canada. My guess is they are picking city pairs that historically have been underserved. AC and WS will be weakened by COVID and will be focused on resuming their pre-COVID routes and may not try to go head-to-head right away with Porter on city pairs they didn't operate between before.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Pretty sure nobody’s suggesting they base all 30 here. Besides that, it’s 30 jets over who knows how many years encompasses the delivery schedule.

An approach of having multiple focus cities in AC/WS/TS back yards will ruin Porter.

Yet they've mentioned flying them out of Toronto-Peason and Montreal in their announcement. That leaves Ottawa and Halifax as 'non-hub' airports.

Unless Pearson and Montreal are spokes versus Ottawa and YTZ being Porter's hubs? Perhaps, but YYZ and YUL both so well-connected as to kind of make connecting superfluous unless it's a screaming deal. If one's connecting from smaller eastern cities in Atlantic Canada, sure, Ottawa works.

It's good for Ottawa fliers, no doubt. I'm just not sure it'll work from a business case.

[Truenorth00]

On the other hand, if this gambit sinks Porter, it'll be terrible for Ottawa fliers. This is exactly why I'm a staunch proponent of proper rail service.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thewave46

They're taking 30 jets. They can't be basing them all out of Ottawa.

Definitely not, but if they were to 'base' 10 of them at YOW (not being an ULCC, PD will continue to cycle aircraft through the network vs actual basing), coupled with the DH4 feeders, it could make for a sizable banked operation of around 15 aircraft per bank.

I think PD hubbing at YOW with YYZ more O&D focussed, has a strong chance of happening given the split ops in Toronto there will be, plus YTZ is already the DH4 hub.

Put it this way, the most likely outcome is YYZ will be the jets hub, YTZ the DH4 hub (already known) and YOW will be a strong DH4 + jets focus city (probably the largest non-Toronto station) with some YOW connecting traffic...something PD's never done at YOW. However, this is the best opportunity Ottawa's ever had, and may ever have, at becoming an airline hub. I certainly hope the YOW Airport Authority will be courting Porter aggressively. One thing is, the smaller post-pandemic AC will defend YYZ and YUL before YOW. Even pre-pandemic, when PD announced YSJ & YFC, AC didn't do anything other than upgauge YFC from a DH1 to a DH3/CRJ, but that had everything to do with the DH1's then-pending retirement. Now AC have permanently suspended YOW-YFC and PAL will be PD's competition on the route.

[caveat.doctor]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

However, this is the best opportunity Ottawa's ever had, and may ever have, at becoming an airline hub. I certainly hope the YOW Airport Authority will be courting Porter aggressively.

I hope so. Too bad Porter gave up their lounge space at YOW, that would have made a nice space to mark their territory as a hub.

Originally Posted by caveat.doctor

First time at the airport in a while, noticed the observation area over the ramp and runways is now closed off

Originally Posted by caveat.doctor

Behind the hoarding just past security you can see stairs from the new security area on the upper level, construction continues:



Most activity is concentrated around the gates just past security:



Fountain shut off and drained:



Departures don't fill up an entire screen:



Much of the airside is unused:





Too bad it wasn't the best timing for this new all-access lounge taking over from Porter:



Air Canada lounge is closed too. No word on when it might reopen. Only one operating now is YYZ (YUL and YVR to follow 1 Sep). Whenever it does, I suspect the snack buffet will be gone, replaced with the table service:

First time at the airport in months, though not flying for a few weeks still (just picking up visitors). The new security area is done! I never look forward to long queues (thanks Nexus/military ID for the easy route), but it will be a good sign when all this extra space to hurry up and wait is put to good use.



Alas this means the old observation area by the restaurant is now in the sterile zone. At least you can still see through it to the runway, though my kids will miss being able to get up to the glass and watching all the baggage and fuelling action up close.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Definitely not, but if they were to 'base' 10 of them at YOW (not being an ULCC, PD will continue to cycle aircraft through the network vs actual basing), coupled with the DH4 feeders, it could make for a sizable banked operation of around 15 aircraft per bank.

I think PD hubbing at YOW with YYZ more O&D focussed, has a strong chance of happening given the split ops in Toronto there will be, plus YTZ is already the DH4 hub.

Put it this way, the most likely outcome is YYZ will be the jets hub, YTZ the DH4 hub (already known) and YOW will be a strong DH4 + jets focus city (probably the largest non-Toronto station) with some YOW connecting traffic...something PD's never done at YOW. However, this is the best opportunity Ottawa's ever had, and may ever have, at becoming an airline hub. I certainly hope the YOW Airport Authority will be courting Porter aggressively. One thing is, the smaller post-pandemic AC will defend YYZ and YUL before YOW. Even pre-pandemic, when PD announced YSJ & YFC, AC didn't do anything other than upgauge YFC from a DH1 to a DH3/CRJ, but that had everything to do with the DH1's then-pending retirement. Now AC have permanently suspended YOW-YFC and PAL will be PD's competition on the route.

It's just the large numbers of jets that make me wonder.

If they were taking 10 + 20 options, OK, I get that. With Ottawa as the hub for the E195s and YTZ the the Q400 hub, one could build a reasonable western presence from Ottawa and enhance service eastwards (i.e. no stopover in Halifax from St. John's). Let YYZ be YYZ and everybody bleed each other out there as there's now tons of domestic and US/sun competition there.

30 + 50 options. That's a big bet.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thewave46

It's just the large numbers of jets that make me wonder.

If they were taking 10 + 20 options, OK, I get that. With Ottawa as the hub for the E195s and YTZ the the Q400 hub, one could build a reasonable western presence from Ottawa and enhance service eastwards (i.e. no stopover in Halifax from St. John's). Let YYZ be YYZ and everybody bleed each other out there as there's now tons of domestic and US/sun competition there.

30 + 50 options. That's a big bet.

The thing is, with the long stage lengths to places like LAX, SFO, SEA, YVR, etc., that requires a lot of aircraft. If you do red-eyes, YVR-east, is pretty much 2 R/Ts per day. So if PD's YVR ops look like this:
YYZ 4x (targeting O&D only)
YOW 2x (say 2 east & west banks/day)
YUL 2x (targeting mostly O&D)
you're talking 4 aircraft just to service YVR, before doing the same at YEG and YYC, where you'd need 3 aircraft each. It starts to add up frames-wise.

[Truenorth00]

Competing on sectors like YVR-YYZ and YYC-YUL would be supremely stupid. I don't think PD management is that dumb.

The smarter play is to find a market where they can grow without substantial hindrance. That's YOW. And then to focus on routes where from that place where the majors are weak and where they can exploit other partnerships. I am starting to think their YYZ, YUL and YHZ claims are a bit of a feint and they really don't intend substantial service there. The faster they can develop YOW, the better for them. If they put the vast majority of those 30 frames here over the next two years with service to the Maritimes, Prairies, JetBlue hubs, West Coast tech hubs, and Sun destinations, the majors and vacation carriers will have a tough time competing directly.

[YOWhopeful]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Competing on sectors like YVR-YYZ and YYC-YUL would be supremely stupid. I don't think PD management is that dumb.

The smarter play is to find a market where they can grow without substantial hindrance. That's YOW. And then to focus on routes where from that place where the majors are weak and where they can exploit other partnerships. I am starting to think their YYZ, YUL and YHZ claims are a bit of a feint and they really don't intend substantial service there. The faster they can develop YOW, the better for them. If they put the vast majority of those 30 frames here over the next two years with service to the Maritimes, Prairies, JetBlue hubs, West Coast tech hubs, and Sun destinations, the majors and vacation carriers will have a tough time competing directly.

I couldn’t agree more. I just hope the Porter decision-makers read this blog.

[YOWflier]

All of the above should hold true if PD knows what it’s doing.

Plugging those other markets seems like (hopefully is) their means of keeping actual cards close to the chest while they put the YOW strategy in place.

[Truenorth00]

I really hope they have capital ready to go and that this announcement means a pretty immediate start of any construction they need at YOW. Hangars, lounges, gate seating, etc.

[MountainView]

It's really interested reading everyone's comments so far! Obviously it is all speculation but I wonder how they would work any US to Canada connections, or if they would sell that at all?

For example, currently all their US ops fly on the Q to YTZ. Would they perhaps do a daily Q from their US destinations to line up with their jet ops at YYZ for destinations in Western Canada? Or would they ever consider using some Q's from YOW on routes to BOS, IAD, EWR to connect to West and East Canada.

I think any flights from YYZ will be O&D based because they won't be able to efficiently have dual hubs at YTZ and YYZ. No one in their right mind is going to take a shuttle bus between airports.

When (or if) business travel picks back up, their YTZ hub should still be a main focus for their turbo prop routes and that operations should almost remain status quo even with their expansion.

Imagine flying YTZ-YOW-YVR because you live downtown Toronto and don't want to necessarily deal with the YYZ commute and craziness!

Hopefully this is good news for YOW.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Competing on sectors like YVR-YYZ and YYC-YUL would be supremely stupid. I don't think PD management is that dumb.

The smarter play is to find a market where they can grow without substantial hindrance. That's YOW. And then to focus on routes where from that place where the majors are weak and where they can exploit other partnerships. I am starting to think their YYZ, YUL and YHZ claims are a bit of a feint and they really don't intend substantial service there. The faster they can develop YOW, the better for them. If they put the vast majority of those 30 frames here over the next two years with service to the Maritimes, Prairies, JetBlue hubs, West Coast tech hubs, and Sun destinations, the majors and vacation carriers will have a tough time competing directly.

After re-reading the press release for about the sixth time, one thing that stood out is out of the four jets cities, Ottawa was listed first. Whenever airlines announce new/more YOW service in a multiple city press release, Ottawa is almost mentioned near the bottom after the hub cities. It could be nothing, but maybe it'll be something. Realistically, the opportunity is there for 2 banks east & 2 banks west daily. Realistic routes out of YOW:

E95s East of YOW:
YYT
YHZ (peak times)
YJT (summer seasonal weekends)

DH4s East of YOW:
YHZ (off-peak times)
YQY (summer seasonal)
YYG
YQM
YSJ
YFC
YQB

E95s West of YOW:
YYZ
YWG
YXE
YQR
YEG
YYC
YLW~
YVR
YYJ~

DH4s West of YOW:
YSB
YQT
YQG
YXU~
YHM~

E95s Transborder out of YOW:
LAX
SFO
LAS
PHX (at least winter seasonally)
SEA (longer-term 5 years out after the hypothetical hub has grown)
DFW (assumes AA codeshare)
MIA year-round (assumes AA codeshare)
CLT (assumes AA codeshare)
FLL (assumes B6 codeshare)
TPA (winter seasonal)
RSW (seasonal)
SRQ~ (took the old CanJet YOW-SRQ several times and loads were always above 85% - winter seasonal)
PBI (winter seasonal)
MCO (year-round)

International E95 out of YOW:
Anything within E95 range.

~Even though these aren't on PD's future destinations map, a lot of dots on PD's original future destinations map like PHL and DTW never happened, while others (i.e., all of Atlantic Canada) did happen. On the flip side, I can't see places like ATL or DEN happening without a codeshare partner out of YOW. BNA as a new leisure route maybe 2x week could be supported out of YOW.

The above DH4s would assume PD reduce YTZ slightly (i.e. 14x YOW-YTZ vs 16-18x) and increase DH4 utilization to free up a couple of frames for increased YOW DH4 flying.

Everything here is probably a pipe dream and PD will hub YYZ with YOW a strong focus city. Using YOW though for Atlantic Canada-Western Canada connections though I think is highly likely to happen.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Everything here is probably a pipe dream and PD will hub YYZ with YOW a strong focus city.

If they are the stupid, they deserve to get their 🞵🞵🞵 handed to them by AC and WS.

[MountainView]

I assume they will want to have some point to point service out west as well? Perhaps not at the beginning (like WestJet started with YYC and worked east), but they could base some at YEG for routes to YVR, YYC, YXE, YQR, YWG (and other cities like YLW, YYJ perhaps).

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by MountainView

It's really interested reading everyone's comments so far! Obviously it is all speculation but I wonder how they would work any US to Canada connections, or if they would sell that at all?

For example, currently all their US ops fly on the Q to YTZ. Would they perhaps do a daily Q from their US destinations to line up with their jet ops at YYZ for destinations in Western Canada? Or would they ever consider using some Q's from YOW on routes to BOS, IAD, EWR to connect to West and East Canada.

I think any flights from YYZ will be O&D based because they won't be able to efficiently have dual hubs at YTZ and YYZ. No one in their right mind is going to take a shuttle bus between airports.

When (or if) business travel picks back up, their YTZ hub should still be a main focus for their turbo prop routes and that operations should almost remain status quo even with their expansion.

Imagine flying YTZ-YOW-YVR because you live downtown Toronto and don't want to necessarily deal with the YYZ commute and craziness!

Hopefully this is good news for YOW.

Any westbound backtracking from YTZ will be icing on the cake for Porter, but not its bread and butter. As much as YYZ might be busy, it's just so much better connected that the hassle is generally worth it. So, I'd expect Porter to focus on O&D out of Pearson, however limited in scope that may be. Same with Montreal.

Like has been mentioned previously, YOW as a connector between smaller eastern centres and west/south makes more sense. You could sell that as 'avoid the painful Pearson connection' with better service.

The smaller centres of Northern Ontario probably will probably remain connected to YTZ only. Those destinations are pretty Toronto-focused in their clientele, especially the more northern ones.

I'm curious where their western operations will be focused. Calgary's an AC/WS hub. Vancouver doubly so for AC. That leaves Edmonton, but the ULCC airlines are setting up there. I don't know where Porter fits.

I also wonder which would be the better partner for them in the US. They've a history with JetBlue, but JetBlue's pretty limited with respect to US destinations. American Airlines has a broader network and could easily connect internationally via O'Hare and Philadelphia.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I'm curious where their western operations will be focused. Calgary's an AC/WS hub. Vancouver doubly so for AC. That leaves Edmonton, but the ULCC airlines are setting up there. I don't know where Porter fits.

They don't need a Western hub. And a surefire way to become Canadian aviation roadkill is trying to run up directly against AC and WS in their backyard. All Western services should be a spoke from YOW. If they really want to push it, they can compete on a few major routes out of YYZ and bleed some red ink for fun I guess.....

If they have to pick a "hub" for the West, there's only one that makes sense for travelers from the East traveling westward: Winnipeg. But Flair and Swoop are already there waiting to give them a real beating.

Originally Posted by thewave46

I also wonder which would be the better partner for them in the US. They've a history with JetBlue, but JetBlue's pretty limited with respect to US destinations. American Airlines has a broader network and could easily connect internationally via O'Hare and Philadelphia.

My personal argument is that it is better to avoid scope creep. Trying to grow to be Canada's third national carrier will get them killed. They have an opportunity here to possibly grow a fortress hub at YOW. They should stick to that.

In the context of American services and partnerships, that should mean focusing on highly urban airports and serving them from YTZ and YOW. MDW instead of ORD, DCA instead of IAD, LGA over JFK, etc. That is where they can really set themselves apart for the Canadian traveler.

Where they need to connect with partner carriers, those should be the only cities where they serve a second airport. JFK, for example, is a pretty big B6 and AA hub. But swapping a hub for a convenient urban airport is a bad strategy. And they can let partners, like AA, carry some of the load. For example, let AA serve YTZ and YOW out of ORD, while Porter focuses on connecting at PHL and JFK.

[YOWflier]

I have a contact who's a manager at a construction company that does a lot of YOW work and he previously told me that YOW and Porter had discussed construction of facilities like hangar, etc. Hopefully this means something serious has been cooking for a while. This really is our chance to break through and I hope we don't screw it up.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

I have a contact who's a manager at a construction company that does a lot of YOW work and he previously told me that YOW and Porter had discussed construction of facilities like hangar, etc. Hopefully this means something serious has been cooking for a while. This really is our chance to break through and I hope we don't screw it up.

I hope Porter doesn't screw it up. I really don't want YOW to be left with stranded infrastructure.