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Originally Posted by mcgrath618
We definitely had a net gain. All of the other metrics (voter registration, workforce statistics, etc) point to, at the very least, a small gain. I’m thinking we definitely break 1.6 mil.
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This.
I recall the City Commissioner's office releasing statistics on voter registration, stating something like we had more people registered to vote in Philadelphia than at any time in the past 50 or so years.
When I looked at the last time we had so many voters, it correlated with over 1.6 million people.
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I'm willing to bet that, even if the 2020 Census finals do show some population loss(I hope this isn't the case), the vast majority of those losses will be from neighborhoods on the extremities of the city. I could see Bustleton, Somerton, West Oak Lane, Cedarbrook, and certain other neighborhoods potentially driving losses--especially as more middle-class black people relocate to the suburbs (I say that as a middle-class black person myself, although I have no intention of leaving the city). On the surface, it appears that the incredible growth being realized in Greater Center City would be strong enough to offset any significant losses. Not only have some neighborhoods been nearly completely rebuilt over time (including my current neighborhood of Francisville), but development is starting to touch neighborhoods I would've never imagined it touching a decade ago, such as Strawberry Mansion, Norris Square, Cobbs Creek, Mantua, Allegheny West, etc.
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I don't disagree that this is possible or maybe even potentially likely, but our eyes just say otherwise. There's development EVERYWHERE.
Even in NW Philly there's development throughout Germantown, East Falls, Roxborough, Manayunk, etc. These places were sleepy in past decades.
On top of that, renovated houses are selling for $300K plus in places as unlikely as Cedarbrook, Cobbs Creek, Overbrook, Wynnefield, etc.
For sure, it's possible that perhaps the average family size is decreasing in these neighborhoods, but there's just so much movement inbound.
The only places I can think of that might be shrinking still would be Eastwick, Cedarbrook, Somerton, Rhawnhurst, The Oak Lanes, Olney. In otherwords, the most suburban parts of the city without a meaningful immigrant influx.
One could have said Mayfair might be on this list 10 years ago, but no way given how many Chinese are moving there from NYC. Mayfair Elementary school is literally bursting at the seams. I think its at 2-3 times its maximum enrollment. It's starting to spill over to Rhawnhurt and even Tacony.
If you were to mark up a map of the city of places that are potentially shrinking, it would be no more than 20% of the city's land area.
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