DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

IT does not get talked about enough but the Flatiron Flyer is a fairly large reason why the Northwest rail extension does not make much sense. I would love to see the rail system built but the Flatiron Flyer is a more convenient service. It is faster and goes to more desirable locations. The B Line would not service the CU campus or Pearl St. in Boulder, as opposed to the Flatiron Flyer. If we could build rail at costs comparable to Europe or Asia, then great but that is not the scenario that we find ourselves in.

I'm just as upset with Boulder as the next person but I take a different approach. The Flatiron Flyer is great and serves a market need, but BRT doesn't spur the kinds of investment that make a difference. Yes, Boulder is terrible and won't allow growth where jobs are - that is wrong. BUT it is what it is and we have to deal with it. If we had a train to Boulder (and Longmont) it would help concentrate development along the rail corridor but only IF RTD forces local municipalities to upzone along the line. Buses don't attract hundreds of millions of investment dollars, trains do.

To service Boulder, RTD should just buy Pat Broe's entire rail company - it'd be cheaper than building new rail and they could utilize his existing network(s) which already cash flow. RTD and Polis should also force Boulder to upzone if they want the train - dangle the carrot in front of them and force them to contribute to the solution of the massive problem they've single handedly created - then after they pass an upzone, let's elect a republican government who takes the train away from them!

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

To service Boulder, RTD should just buy Pat Broe's entire rail company - it'd be cheaper than building new rail and they could utilize his existing network(s) which already cash flow. RTD and Polis should also force Boulder to upzone if they want the train - dangle the carrot in front of them and force them to contribute to the solution of the massive problem they've single handedly created - then after they pass an upzone, let's elect a republican government who takes the train away from them!

I assume you're referring to OmniTrax's GWR, which doesn't go anywhere close to Boulder- it terminates at Longmont. It might be useful for a portion of the Front Range Rail route, but you're still going to have to deal with BNSF to the north and UP/BNSF to the south of Denver.

[TakeFive]

Per Nathaniel Minor/CPR

https://www.cpr.org/2021/02/10/after-polis-arm-twist-rtd-looks-to-restart-boulder-rail-project/

RTD has about $120 million in a FasTracks-dedicated savings account that could cover the cost of the new studies. But unless a new revenue stream appears — and Polis did not offer one — or costs fall significantly, it’s not clear how RTD could afford construction. The agency is facing significant long-term financial challenges.

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by jhwk

RTD board meeting is happening right now - Polis has entered the discussion and made it clear that it is the B-line or nothing for RTD’s future plans as long as he is governor.

It sounds like at least some of the RTD board is supportive of paying for a new engineering study. I think it is important that if a new study is done, the decision to use DMU technology and 30 minute frequency is revisited. Electrification and 15-minute frequency is needed.

I just want to note how breathtaking that is. Waste billions on a train nobody will use or I will end you.

I would actually be more reasonable if I was a dictator who said east-central Denver subway (which would at least have high ridership and help mitigate growth pressures) or I will end you.

Of course, I'm completely harmless and would never end anybody or anything, but apparently Polis would! He knows exactly what he is doing by making this his biggest issue right as RTD enters its own official financial crisis. This is going down exactly as I suggested, and now just sit back and watch $2-3 billion magically materialize out of thin air. It will probably be mostly public debt because no P3 actually wants to operate a 35-mile rail line to an upscale open space preserve.

If this amount of money is going to magically materialize, the Boulder train is the least bang for our buck while central core subway and airport expansion might be tied as the highest bang for our buck (at that scale).

[BG918]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Aurora.

Look at the map of Aurora. There is literally an area the size of DIA south of the airport and east of E-470 to near Watkins that could house hundreds of thousands of people. Build another dozen Green Valley Ranches. It won't solve the housing affordability issue plaguing the Denver metro but it would put a serious dent in it.

[twister244]

The problem with the B line situation is that it was voted in during the 2004 FastTracks vote. So, on one hand, the voters in along the line, and in Boulder/Longmont have a case for why the train should be completed as they were assured it would happen.

But.... You can also argue they are being completely selfish in the process. They could easily instead compromise for the construction of a dedicated "BRT" lane along US-36 to serve the FF, making it a true BRT. Boulderites want their choo choo, but anytime you ask one of them how often they would actually use it, their eyes begin to gloss over. They could also try to work with planners to re-route the planned route so it hits campus and downtown instead, making it far more useful.

What's really lost is the justification for this train is even worse now than it was pre-pandemic. Before the crap hit the fan, I was taking the bus to Boulder every day to go to our office. Even if the pandemic ended tomorrow, I would only go up there a couple days a week at best because I can work remotely long term now. Do Wed/Fri up in the office, and the rest of the week at a WeWork here in Denver where I am closer to my gym and home. That's the worst part of this, and I don't think Boulder realizes this yet. They rely so much on people hauling ass to/from there everyday, spending money after work at local restaurants/bars, etc. Who is going to want to endure that grueling rat race everyday just to look at the flat irons and maybe grab a cocktail on Pearl Street?

It will be interesting to see how Boulder adapts to this after things open back up, but I sense a permanent change they aren't ready for yet.

[TakeFive]

Prelude

Originally Posted by twister244

Supply..... We just aren't building housing fast enough here. This is anecdotal, in the Jefferson Park and Sloan's Lake area, but the amount of land available to build more "slot" homes and townhomes is quickly dwindling in these areas. My immediate neighborhood in Jefferson Park doesn't have much room left.... I mentioned Jefferson Park and Sloan's lake (south of 20th, north of Colfax). As soon as you get north of 20th and west of Federal, nothing has changed as those houses can't be touched.

I can recall Cirrus with his take making a comparison to Row Houses using Philadelphia as an example. He had a great talent for adding photo links.

There are comparable sites west of Sheridan that come fairly close. Koelbel and Company has also come close with their townhome developments.

With Sloan's Lake and Jeff Park we ended up with more of a mish-mash although as you point out some of it is attractive. I'm okay with "north of 20th and west of Federal" staying much the same. TCR has built a couple of their apartment projects in the area so there's that. I have also suggested that (2-3) blocks closer to Sheridan could be up-zoned.

[TakeFive]

Pandemic Afterglow

Originally Posted by twister244

Maybe my opinion is an odd view, but I feel like Denver has, or is about to approach a point where folks are going to start taking a second look before moving here.

Again, not trying to rag on Denver, but imo, it has crossed into the "stupid" expensive territory.

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Hey so can anyone riddle me how Denver's home prices are up 18% YoY alongside one of the highest unemployment rates in the country? Whats going on?!!

Props to twister244 for starting the latest round of housing discussion 9 pages ago and to Robert.hampton for advancing the case.

Originally Posted by twister244

Zoning doesn't dictate the price of the home, the market does. Right now, there isn't enough housing going up to accommodate growth. The fact these narrow slot homes are indeed selling like hot cakes means people are ok with more density city-wide...

I can recall maybe a couple of years ago, a guy who had built 8 to 10 slot-style/ townhome-style units generally in the Sloan's Lake area. Unfortunately he could not sell them at the price he wanted/needed. The article mentioned he might consider selling them in bulk. I don't know the end of his story and real estate has been notoriously cyclical.

The Pandemic Afterglow

This is not unique to Denver; it's happened all over the country. Partly 'work-from-home' and a whole lot of just wanting your own private space with an emphasis on space. All of a sudden everybody decided they wanted to buy a "Single Family Home." Denver doesn't have a housing shortage; there's plenty of apartment vacancy. What it has is a shortage of single family homes and that's why prices keep rising.

Finally

Originally Posted by BG918

Look at the map of Aurora. There is literally an area the size of DIA south of the airport and east of E-470 to near Watkins that could house hundreds of thousands of people. Build another dozen Green Valley Ranches. It won't solve the housing affordability issue plaguing the Denver metro but it would put a serious dent in it.

There is NO LAND within the city for building more single family homes to satiate this new demand.

If buyers are going to crave single family homes or at the least a townhome with enough of a backyard for pets and/or kids then you have to go where there is land for building singe family homes along with mixed density homes.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by twister244

...What's really lost is the justification for this train is even worse now than it was pre-pandemic. Before the crap hit the fan, I was taking the bus to Boulder every day to go to our office. Even if the pandemic ended tomorrow, I would only go up there a couple days a week at best because I can work remotely long term now. Do Wed/Fri up in the office, and the rest of the week at a WeWork here in Denver where I am closer to my gym and home. That's the worst part of this, and I don't think Boulder realizes this yet. They rely so much on people hauling ass to/from there everyday, spending money after work at local restaurants/bars, etc. Who is going to want to endure that grueling rat race everyday just to look at the flat irons and maybe grab a cocktail on Pearl Street?

It will be interesting to see how Boulder adapts to this after things open back up, but I sense a permanent change they aren't ready for yet.

It certainly will be interesting to see how that turns out. Those tens of thousands of jobs where people commute to Boulder because the Boulder
boomers hates housing. I suspect a return to the office is imminent, albeit less intensive than pre-pandemic. Regardless, a train would undoubtedly take cars off the road to Boulder (or maybe entice more people to drive because it's faster).

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

This is not unique to Denver; it's happened all over the country. Partly 'work-from-home' and a whole lot of just wanting your own private space with an emphasis on space. All of a sudden everybody decided they wanted to buy a "Single Family Home." Denver doesn't have a housing shortage; there's plenty of apartment vacancy. What it has is a shortage of single family homes and that's why prices keep rising.

TakeFive, with all due respect, this comment is why ageism is a real thing these days. Your comment implies that Denver's housing market is in balance and that we have an isolated problem of folks escaping a pandemic wanting a big ole house to fit a traeger in the back yard. Pretty much any young person, when posed with your response, would say you are bat shit crazy and their knee may spasm (no personal attack intended, purely for the drama).

SURE, there is rental vacancy though it's almost flat through a pandemic.

YES, condos are sitting on the market.

BUT, an ever-growing portion of renters are paying more than 40-50%+ of their total income toward housing.

AND, condos are generally for sale north of $400/SF with HOA fees that tack on an additional 20% to 30% to the cost of ownership.

Is housing available? Yes, a tiny wee little bit. Is it affordable to actual people who make for diverse communities we all love and cherish? NO, it's not and it won't be. Denver is following the footsteps of every other great liberal urban experiment and we will meet the same fate because we're making the same decisions.

I will repeat this as many times as I can. Denver, Colorado, nationwide - everywhere in this country is producing less housing than we were 50, 40, 30 years ago and as such, housing is more scarce and more expensive. This is largely a function of zoning, available land, and to an extent out west - natural resource limitations (more specifically local government's complete inability to get ahead of growth through procurement of water and deferred maintenance of 50 year old suburban wastewater systems folks took for granted). In the 1970's the State of Colorado produced as much housing as we do now but we had HALF the population. I'll say it again, on a population adjusted basis, we produced TWICE AS MUCH HOUSING in the 1970's as we do now. The 2020's will be one of the slowest growth decades in history for Colorado (I'm guessing the 5th slowest since 1860). If we are growing slower, why is the cost of housing rising so dramatically?

If you don't believe me, look at the data. I'd post a picture but I'm not that tech-enabled (or motivated). Perhaps a census link will work. Page 6 for Colorado. We do not build enough housing (of all types) and it's glaringly obvious to smart money, which is why folks keep pouring big dollars into big housing developments.

https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/pdf/annualhistorybystate.pdf

[twister244]

Originally Posted by laniroj

It certainly will be interesting to see how that turns out. Those tens of thousands of jobs where people commute to Boulder because the Boulder
boomers hates housing. I suspect a return to the office is imminent, albeit less intensive than pre-pandemic. Regardless, a train would undoubtedly take cars off the road to Boulder (or maybe entice more people to drive because it's faster).

It might be returning soon, but it's not going to be half of what it was before. My company is allowing long-term remote work now. I don't expect every company to allow that, but it's on the table for many folks. The ones that won't allow that will likely allow for long-term WFH for at least half the week.

And.... As has been brought up, there is no guarantee a train will get cars off the road. The train wouldn't even go up 36..... It goes to "downtown Westminster", then shoots up north to Louisville, and east to Boulder Jct. Then, it's off to Longmont from there. The only folks that benefits are residents of Westminster, Louisville, and portions of Northeast Broomfield that work near the Google Campus.

If we had a train that went up along 36, hit Interlocken, the CU campus, downtown, AND Bldr. Jct, then sure, one could argue we would see benefit.

I just don't see it with the current planned configuration at all. Again, the FF system works. Anyone who has taken it on a regular basis knows this. It was very common to see the FF1 completely packed during rush hour to the point where folks have to stand in the middle aisle. I would take the FF2 sometimes, which ran every 10 minutes, and that had a good portion of people on it.

Why break what's not broken? Make the FF better. Run the FF1 every 10 minutes instead of every 15 minutes, build a dedicated BRT lane, invest into turning the busses into electric, autonomous vehicles for long-term cost savings, etc.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by twister244

Why break what's not broken? Make the FF better. Run the FF1 every 10 minutes instead of every 15 minutes, build a dedicated BRT lane, invest into turning the busses into electric, autonomous vehicles for long-term cost savings, etc.

I'd be down with these improvements (minus the BRT Lane up 36 unless it's an expanded shoulder project) for the minimal gains you'd get from a stagnant city like Boulder. What the NW Line complaints really is about is how Longmont, which is certainly not a stagnant city, has gotten screwed. This is where the effort should be put and if there's more cost effective routes to get rail to Longmont, such as extending the N Line, those should also be looked at.

Really the only chance of anything happening with NW rail is a joint effort between RTD, the state, and Amtrak in guise of Front Range Rail which is likely what Polis' grand-standing is ultimately about: get $'s from the feds.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

So go from a bronze-plated boondoogle to a gold-plated boondoogle? Great.

I think that Polis needs to have the B-Line hung around his neck sot that when RTD further cuts urban bus routes to pay for this little vanity project he can take ownership of the implicit discrimination against black and brown folks so that white folks can have their choo-choo.

Man, f**k Boulder. If there was ever a city in Colorado that needed a low-level nuke to clear out the offal it's that collection of sanctimonious righteousness. This is the Boulder municipal utility push all over again.


*Now Longmont is getting the shaft on the NW Line (as are all the folks who were supposed to get additional bus service as part of FasTracks, but that's not talked about anymore)... I do feel like something should be done on that front, but really it should be coupled with a push for Front Range Rail.

Definitely the L-towns are getting the raw end of the deal. Louisville, out of all of them, would have benefited the most because the train would have actually gone right adjacent to their downtown.

What needs to happen is the train goes to Louisville as planned, and then run it straight up 95th Street to Longmont. Then maybe one day when Boulder gets its head out of its ass (doubtful) and allows the train further into the central district they can build their own spur.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I'd be down with these improvements (minus the BRT Lane up 36 unless it's an expanded shoulder project) for the minimal gains you'd get from a stagnant city like Boulder. What the NW Line complaints really is about is how Longmont, which is certainly not a stagnant city, has gotten screwed. This is where the effort should be put and if there's more cost effective routes to get rail to Longmont, such as extending the N Line, those should also be looked at.

Really the only chance of anything happening with NW rail is a joint effort between RTD, the state, and Amtrak in guise of Front Range Rail which is likely what Polis' grand-standing is ultimately about: get $'s from the feds.

I'm interested in how the Front Range Passenger Rail would take form in a way that helps the B Line. Would it go NW to Boulder and back NE to Longmont then N to Fort Collins?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I'm interested in how the Front Range Passenger Rail would take form in a way that helps the B Line. Would it go NW to Boulder and back NE to Longmont then N to Fort Collins?

Yes, there's the BNSF line that runs by/through those communities (it hits the downtowns of Longmont and Fort Collins IIRC). If you use that line for commuter rail service you have a shared line with the freight trains. There would be a good number of line upgrades to permit such a service but it's probably the likeliest path for commuter rail at this point.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Interesting. Would the Front Range Passenger Rail take the place of the B Line or would it help finance the right of way that they would both run on? If the former, I imagine that the Front Range Passenger Rail would likely only stop at DUS, then Boulder Junction, downtown Longmont, Loveland, and then Fort Collins. I think faster rail service with limited stops would better compliment the Flatiron Flyer, assuming RTD continues to operate the Flatiron Flyer with a NW rail service

[Ich]

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/...ntown-denver-coronavirus-urban-core.html

Pretty cool article about the future of downtown. One notable part was Amacon saying they are still moving forward with their twin tower condo project.

[jhwk]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Interesting. Would the Front Range Passenger Rail take the place of the B Line or would it help finance the right of way that they would both run on? If the former, I imagine that the Front Range Passenger Rail would likely only stop at DUS, then Boulder Junction, downtown Longmont, Loveland, and then Fort Collins. I think faster rail service with limited stops would better compliment the Flatiron Flyer, assuming RTD continues to operate the Flatiron Flyer with a NW rail service

In the “ultimate build-out” scenario “Option 1” being discussed for $14B, the Front Range Passenger Rail will have 2 trains per hour on a dedicated 2-track electrified line. The B-line could then be run with 4 trains per hour on the same tracks which would result in 6 trains per hour between Longmont and Denver. There is no guarantee that the fares will be integrated, though, so it may make more sense for a Boulder passenger going to an RTD service area to take the B-Line rather than the FRPR. I am also not sure that Longmont needs that much service - they were talking about half hour frequency anyway so it might be best to terminate the B-Line in Boulder.

The bigger question is what they plan to do with DUS - the front range rail is either going to have to stop by the light rail instead of the trainshed, turn around (which can take more than 15 minutes due to FRA requirements), or stop at a station other than DUS requiring a transfer to RTD to get downtown. All are pretty poor options due to asinine federal regulations and the great recession preventing the original Union Station plan from being built, where trains were under the bus terminal.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

On the topic of the front range passenger rail, I found this article from Colorado public radio to be pretty interesting.

https://www.cpr.org/2020/12/04/front-ran...price-tag-as-rtd-looks-to-jump-on-board/

From what I read, service could begin 5 to 10 years from now at earliest using older technology resulting in average speeds of 45 mph. However, that system could be upgraded within 20 to 30 years to accommodate speeds of 110 mph.

Having traveled in Europe and Asia, it is unfortunate that rail infrastructure proves to be so uniquely expensive and impractical in America. China has built more than 20,000 mi of high-speed rail (120-220 mph) in the past 15 years. They have very different legal concepts when it comes to property rights but their infrastructure is certainly going to give them a competitive advantage with their future economic development. I wasn't alive during most of the Cold War but I hope that we are better able to compete with China in the areas of technology and infrastructure. I just wonder what other transit technologies will be in existence by the time we construct what are already outdated rail systems.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jhwk

The bigger question is what they plan to do with DUS - the front range rail is either going to have to stop by the light rail instead of the trainshed, turn around (which can take more than 15 minutes due to FRA requirements), or stop at a station other than DUS requiring a transfer to RTD to get downtown. All are pretty poor options due to asinine federal regulations and the great recession preventing the original Union Station plan from being built, where trains were under the bus terminal.

You'd probably end up with either no-through service and DUS would be the terminus or a new station adjacent to the LRT terminal. If through service is a strong desire than why not build a new trainshed that accommodates LRT and Front Range Rail? It would be tight, but it's possible to put a three or four platform station there.