DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Pandemic Afterglow

Originally Posted by twister244

Maybe my opinion is an odd view, but I feel like Denver has, or is about to approach a point where folks are going to start taking a second look before moving here.

Again, not trying to rag on Denver, but imo, it has crossed into the "stupid" expensive territory.

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Hey so can anyone riddle me how Denver's home prices are up 18% YoY alongside one of the highest unemployment rates in the country? Whats going on?!!

Props to twister244 for starting the latest round of housing discussion 9 pages ago and to Robert.hampton for advancing the case.

Originally Posted by twister244

Zoning doesn't dictate the price of the home, the market does. Right now, there isn't enough housing going up to accommodate growth. The fact these narrow slot homes are indeed selling like hot cakes means people are ok with more density city-wide...

I can recall maybe a couple of years ago, a guy who had built 8 to 10 slot-style/ townhome-style units generally in the Sloan's Lake area. Unfortunately he could not sell them at the price he wanted/needed. The article mentioned he might consider selling them in bulk. I don't know the end of his story and real estate has been notoriously cyclical.

The Pandemic Afterglow

This is not unique to Denver; it's happened all over the country. Partly 'work-from-home' and a whole lot of just wanting your own private space with an emphasis on space. All of a sudden everybody decided they wanted to buy a "Single Family Home." Denver doesn't have a housing shortage; there's plenty of apartment vacancy. What it has is a shortage of single family homes and that's why prices keep rising.

Finally

Originally Posted by BG918

Look at the map of Aurora. There is literally an area the size of DIA south of the airport and east of E-470 to near Watkins that could house hundreds of thousands of people. Build another dozen Green Valley Ranches. It won't solve the housing affordability issue plaguing the Denver metro but it would put a serious dent in it.

There is NO LAND within the city for building more single family homes to satiate this new demand.

If buyers are going to crave single family homes or at the least a townhome with enough of a backyard for pets and/or kids then you have to go where there is land for building singe family homes along with mixed density homes.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by twister244

...What's really lost is the justification for this train is even worse now than it was pre-pandemic. Before the crap hit the fan, I was taking the bus to Boulder every day to go to our office. Even if the pandemic ended tomorrow, I would only go up there a couple days a week at best because I can work remotely long term now. Do Wed/Fri up in the office, and the rest of the week at a WeWork here in Denver where I am closer to my gym and home. That's the worst part of this, and I don't think Boulder realizes this yet. They rely so much on people hauling ass to/from there everyday, spending money after work at local restaurants/bars, etc. Who is going to want to endure that grueling rat race everyday just to look at the flat irons and maybe grab a cocktail on Pearl Street?

It will be interesting to see how Boulder adapts to this after things open back up, but I sense a permanent change they aren't ready for yet.

It certainly will be interesting to see how that turns out. Those tens of thousands of jobs where people commute to Boulder because the Boulder
boomers hates housing. I suspect a return to the office is imminent, albeit less intensive than pre-pandemic. Regardless, a train would undoubtedly take cars off the road to Boulder (or maybe entice more people to drive because it's faster).

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

This is not unique to Denver; it's happened all over the country. Partly 'work-from-home' and a whole lot of just wanting your own private space with an emphasis on space. All of a sudden everybody decided they wanted to buy a "Single Family Home." Denver doesn't have a housing shortage; there's plenty of apartment vacancy. What it has is a shortage of single family homes and that's why prices keep rising.

TakeFive, with all due respect, this comment is why ageism is a real thing these days. Your comment implies that Denver's housing market is in balance and that we have an isolated problem of folks escaping a pandemic wanting a big ole house to fit a traeger in the back yard. Pretty much any young person, when posed with your response, would say you are bat shit crazy and their knee may spasm (no personal attack intended, purely for the drama).

SURE, there is rental vacancy though it's almost flat through a pandemic.

YES, condos are sitting on the market.

BUT, an ever-growing portion of renters are paying more than 40-50%+ of their total income toward housing.

AND, condos are generally for sale north of $400/SF with HOA fees that tack on an additional 20% to 30% to the cost of ownership.

Is housing available? Yes, a tiny wee little bit. Is it affordable to actual people who make for diverse communities we all love and cherish? NO, it's not and it won't be. Denver is following the footsteps of every other great liberal urban experiment and we will meet the same fate because we're making the same decisions.

I will repeat this as many times as I can. Denver, Colorado, nationwide - everywhere in this country is producing less housing than we were 50, 40, 30 years ago and as such, housing is more scarce and more expensive. This is largely a function of zoning, available land, and to an extent out west - natural resource limitations (more specifically local government's complete inability to get ahead of growth through procurement of water and deferred maintenance of 50 year old suburban wastewater systems folks took for granted). In the 1970's the State of Colorado produced as much housing as we do now but we had HALF the population. I'll say it again, on a population adjusted basis, we produced TWICE AS MUCH HOUSING in the 1970's as we do now. The 2020's will be one of the slowest growth decades in history for Colorado (I'm guessing the 5th slowest since 1860). If we are growing slower, why is the cost of housing rising so dramatically?

If you don't believe me, look at the data. I'd post a picture but I'm not that tech-enabled (or motivated). Perhaps a census link will work. Page 6 for Colorado. We do not build enough housing (of all types) and it's glaringly obvious to smart money, which is why folks keep pouring big dollars into big housing developments.

https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/pdf/annualhistorybystate.pdf

[twister244]

Originally Posted by laniroj

It certainly will be interesting to see how that turns out. Those tens of thousands of jobs where people commute to Boulder because the Boulder
boomers hates housing. I suspect a return to the office is imminent, albeit less intensive than pre-pandemic. Regardless, a train would undoubtedly take cars off the road to Boulder (or maybe entice more people to drive because it's faster).

It might be returning soon, but it's not going to be half of what it was before. My company is allowing long-term remote work now. I don't expect every company to allow that, but it's on the table for many folks. The ones that won't allow that will likely allow for long-term WFH for at least half the week.

And.... As has been brought up, there is no guarantee a train will get cars off the road. The train wouldn't even go up 36..... It goes to "downtown Westminster", then shoots up north to Louisville, and east to Boulder Jct. Then, it's off to Longmont from there. The only folks that benefits are residents of Westminster, Louisville, and portions of Northeast Broomfield that work near the Google Campus.

If we had a train that went up along 36, hit Interlocken, the CU campus, downtown, AND Bldr. Jct, then sure, one could argue we would see benefit.

I just don't see it with the current planned configuration at all. Again, the FF system works. Anyone who has taken it on a regular basis knows this. It was very common to see the FF1 completely packed during rush hour to the point where folks have to stand in the middle aisle. I would take the FF2 sometimes, which ran every 10 minutes, and that had a good portion of people on it.

Why break what's not broken? Make the FF better. Run the FF1 every 10 minutes instead of every 15 minutes, build a dedicated BRT lane, invest into turning the busses into electric, autonomous vehicles for long-term cost savings, etc.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by twister244

Why break what's not broken? Make the FF better. Run the FF1 every 10 minutes instead of every 15 minutes, build a dedicated BRT lane, invest into turning the busses into electric, autonomous vehicles for long-term cost savings, etc.

I'd be down with these improvements (minus the BRT Lane up 36 unless it's an expanded shoulder project) for the minimal gains you'd get from a stagnant city like Boulder. What the NW Line complaints really is about is how Longmont, which is certainly not a stagnant city, has gotten screwed. This is where the effort should be put and if there's more cost effective routes to get rail to Longmont, such as extending the N Line, those should also be looked at.

Really the only chance of anything happening with NW rail is a joint effort between RTD, the state, and Amtrak in guise of Front Range Rail which is likely what Polis' grand-standing is ultimately about: get $'s from the feds.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

So go from a bronze-plated boondoogle to a gold-plated boondoogle? Great.

I think that Polis needs to have the B-Line hung around his neck sot that when RTD further cuts urban bus routes to pay for this little vanity project he can take ownership of the implicit discrimination against black and brown folks so that white folks can have their choo-choo.

Man, f**k Boulder. If there was ever a city in Colorado that needed a low-level nuke to clear out the offal it's that collection of sanctimonious righteousness. This is the Boulder municipal utility push all over again.


*Now Longmont is getting the shaft on the NW Line (as are all the folks who were supposed to get additional bus service as part of FasTracks, but that's not talked about anymore)... I do feel like something should be done on that front, but really it should be coupled with a push for Front Range Rail.

Definitely the L-towns are getting the raw end of the deal. Louisville, out of all of them, would have benefited the most because the train would have actually gone right adjacent to their downtown.

What needs to happen is the train goes to Louisville as planned, and then run it straight up 95th Street to Longmont. Then maybe one day when Boulder gets its head out of its ass (doubtful) and allows the train further into the central district they can build their own spur.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I'd be down with these improvements (minus the BRT Lane up 36 unless it's an expanded shoulder project) for the minimal gains you'd get from a stagnant city like Boulder. What the NW Line complaints really is about is how Longmont, which is certainly not a stagnant city, has gotten screwed. This is where the effort should be put and if there's more cost effective routes to get rail to Longmont, such as extending the N Line, those should also be looked at.

Really the only chance of anything happening with NW rail is a joint effort between RTD, the state, and Amtrak in guise of Front Range Rail which is likely what Polis' grand-standing is ultimately about: get $'s from the feds.

I'm interested in how the Front Range Passenger Rail would take form in a way that helps the B Line. Would it go NW to Boulder and back NE to Longmont then N to Fort Collins?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I'm interested in how the Front Range Passenger Rail would take form in a way that helps the B Line. Would it go NW to Boulder and back NE to Longmont then N to Fort Collins?

Yes, there's the BNSF line that runs by/through those communities (it hits the downtowns of Longmont and Fort Collins IIRC). If you use that line for commuter rail service you have a shared line with the freight trains. There would be a good number of line upgrades to permit such a service but it's probably the likeliest path for commuter rail at this point.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Interesting. Would the Front Range Passenger Rail take the place of the B Line or would it help finance the right of way that they would both run on? If the former, I imagine that the Front Range Passenger Rail would likely only stop at DUS, then Boulder Junction, downtown Longmont, Loveland, and then Fort Collins. I think faster rail service with limited stops would better compliment the Flatiron Flyer, assuming RTD continues to operate the Flatiron Flyer with a NW rail service

[Ich]

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/...ntown-denver-coronavirus-urban-core.html

Pretty cool article about the future of downtown. One notable part was Amacon saying they are still moving forward with their twin tower condo project.

[jhwk]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Interesting. Would the Front Range Passenger Rail take the place of the B Line or would it help finance the right of way that they would both run on? If the former, I imagine that the Front Range Passenger Rail would likely only stop at DUS, then Boulder Junction, downtown Longmont, Loveland, and then Fort Collins. I think faster rail service with limited stops would better compliment the Flatiron Flyer, assuming RTD continues to operate the Flatiron Flyer with a NW rail service

In the “ultimate build-out” scenario “Option 1” being discussed for $14B, the Front Range Passenger Rail will have 2 trains per hour on a dedicated 2-track electrified line. The B-line could then be run with 4 trains per hour on the same tracks which would result in 6 trains per hour between Longmont and Denver. There is no guarantee that the fares will be integrated, though, so it may make more sense for a Boulder passenger going to an RTD service area to take the B-Line rather than the FRPR. I am also not sure that Longmont needs that much service - they were talking about half hour frequency anyway so it might be best to terminate the B-Line in Boulder.

The bigger question is what they plan to do with DUS - the front range rail is either going to have to stop by the light rail instead of the trainshed, turn around (which can take more than 15 minutes due to FRA requirements), or stop at a station other than DUS requiring a transfer to RTD to get downtown. All are pretty poor options due to asinine federal regulations and the great recession preventing the original Union Station plan from being built, where trains were under the bus terminal.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

On the topic of the front range passenger rail, I found this article from Colorado public radio to be pretty interesting.

https://www.cpr.org/2020/12/04/front-ran...price-tag-as-rtd-looks-to-jump-on-board/

From what I read, service could begin 5 to 10 years from now at earliest using older technology resulting in average speeds of 45 mph. However, that system could be upgraded within 20 to 30 years to accommodate speeds of 110 mph.

Having traveled in Europe and Asia, it is unfortunate that rail infrastructure proves to be so uniquely expensive and impractical in America. China has built more than 20,000 mi of high-speed rail (120-220 mph) in the past 15 years. They have very different legal concepts when it comes to property rights but their infrastructure is certainly going to give them a competitive advantage with their future economic development. I wasn't alive during most of the Cold War but I hope that we are better able to compete with China in the areas of technology and infrastructure. I just wonder what other transit technologies will be in existence by the time we construct what are already outdated rail systems.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jhwk

The bigger question is what they plan to do with DUS - the front range rail is either going to have to stop by the light rail instead of the trainshed, turn around (which can take more than 15 minutes due to FRA requirements), or stop at a station other than DUS requiring a transfer to RTD to get downtown. All are pretty poor options due to asinine federal regulations and the great recession preventing the original Union Station plan from being built, where trains were under the bus terminal.

You'd probably end up with either no-through service and DUS would be the terminus or a new station adjacent to the LRT terminal. If through service is a strong desire than why not build a new trainshed that accommodates LRT and Front Range Rail? It would be tight, but it's possible to put a three or four platform station there.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I've been watching a presentation from the raill passengers association discussing the front range passenger rail just because I find this interesting. One of the proposed routes would bypass downtown Denver altogether and follow e470 directly to the airport, with connections in lone tree and in Thornton to the RTD system. Does not seem that that path would likely go forward because it was based on a 2014 Obama era study assuming high speed rail traveling up to 220 mph. In addition, I think there would be some resistance in Colorado Springs because that sort of connection to DIA would really hurt their local airport. Based on what happened in California, I think most of the momentum will be for rail speeds at 90-110 mph that don't require the elevated right of way needed for a true high speed rail system. If Amtrak builds out this system, can't they use the same tracks and platform that they use for the California Zephyr at Denver Union Station?

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Ich

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/...ntown-denver-coronavirus-urban-core.html

Pretty cool article about the future of downtown. One notable part was Amacon saying they are still moving forward with their twin tower condo project.

I don't have access to the article, but is there any new information that we don't already know about Amacon? We've all been hearing about this project for almost three years now, but still no movement, no sales site, still under review according to the city website.....

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

You'd probably end up with either no-through service and DUS would be the terminus or a new station adjacent to the LRT terminal. If through service is a strong desire than why not build a new trainshed that accommodates LRT and Front Range Rail? It would be tight, but it's possible to put a three or four platform station there.

While it is also my understanding that the long-term plan would be to put it adjacent the LRT terminal, I have never understood exactly why a Front Range Rail service could not use the regular DUS trainshed.

Many, many, many train stations all across the world are stub-end stations without through tracks. Trains can still use these stations because most trains are bi-directional. Over half of the train stations I have used in Europe are stub-end, and through trains using these stations simply change direction and pull out in reverse - this is why half the seats on most trains face backward. London's King's Cross and St Pancras stations are both this way, so is Paris' Gare du Nord and Gare de l'Est, both Munich's and Frankfurt's Hauptbannhofs, Vienna's Westbannhof, Florence's Santa Maria Novella, and Rome's Termini train stations - and this is just to name a few that I have personally been through. These stations may not offer the same operational advantages as a through-station like Amsterdam's Centraal, but they are still perfectly usable stations by modern trains.

Here in Denver, our commuter trains change direction at DUS every time they pull in and out. Even an "old fashioned" train like the Amtrak, which is not bi-directional, uses the station and has a procedure to turn the train around after backing out on its way from Chicago to SF and back again. This is admittedly a rather slow process, but it can be done.

I suppose this depends on the technology - traditional passenger rail vs. a modern electric trainset - you wouldn't want dozens of trains a day turning around the way the Amtrak does. But I guess I don't understand why a BRAND NEW service like Front Range Rail couldn't be designed as a bi-directional train like every other modern train in the world capable of using a stub-end station. Presumably even DMU as planned for the B-line is capable of doing this.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

What mr1138 said

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

Definitely the L-towns are getting the raw end of the deal. Louisville, out of all of them, would have benefited the most because the train would have actually gone right adjacent to their downtown.

What needs to happen is the train goes to Louisville as planned, and then run it straight up 95th Street to Longmont. Then maybe one day when Boulder gets its head out of its ass (doubtful) and allows the train further into the central district they can build their own spur.

This seems to make too much sense.

I had to pull up a map to orient myself. It's funny; I can remember eating good Italian food in Louisville; I used to enjoy going down to Niwot from time to time. But 95th Street drew a blank. Had a good chuckle when I realized 95th Street connects the two.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Really the only chance of anything happening with NW rail is a joint effort between RTD, the state, and Amtrak in guise of Front Range Rail which is likely what Polis' grand-standing is ultimately about: get $'s from the feds.

This one statement cost me a lot of my time; fortunately since the Nuggets game was boring I had the time.

So I see where Amtrak has expressed interest in running more 'local' style routes but I don't see this as a good option; I'm focusing more on Polis' obsession.

If Polis could get the State to pony up a chunk of money that along with matching grants gets us closer.

Is it possible that BNSF could go from being a villain to being a cooperative buddy?

I was familiar with Xcel's plan to close both Comanche 1 and Comanche 2 coal plants in Pueblo. Now I learn that Colorado Spring Utilities will close both of their coal plants, one in 2023 and the other in 2030. That's a Schnitt-ton of coal-hauling business that BNSF will soon be losing; hasn't coal been BNSF' biggest payload? This could be reason enough for BNSF to look elsewhere for revenue and if an RTD commuter train would do that then Voila.

As an aside, are you aware of all the problems Xcel has had with their shiny new $1.4 billion Comanche 3 plant? Turns out that most of the stuff (piping etc) that they ordered from Alstom came out of their Czech plant and was total crap. Xcel has had to rebuild major parts of this facility as a result.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I was familiar with Xcel's plan to close both Comanche 1 and Comanche 2 coal plants in Pueblo. Now I learn that Colorado Spring Utilities will close both of their coal plants, one in 2023 and the other in 2030. That's a Schnitt-ton of coal-hauling business that BNSF will soon be losing; hasn't coal been BNSF' biggest payload? This could be reason enough for BNSF to look elsewhere for revenue and if an RTD commuter train would do that then Voila.

As an aside, are you aware of all the problems Xcel has had with their shiny new $1.4 billion Comanche 3 plant? Turns out that most of the stuff (piping etc) that they ordered from Alstom came out of their Czech plant and was total crap. Xcel has had to rebuild major parts of this facility as a result.

That's five units which while being a lot of coal- isn't a ton of coal. BSNF still hauls a ton of coal out of the PWR down to Texas which constitutes the vast majority of the freight traffic along their line. CO consumed 1.4M tons of out of WY in Q320 (not all going on BSNF lines down the Front Range), TX consumed 8.7M tons out of WY. TX is planning on stretching out their coal retirements through 2050 while I don't think there will be a coal plant operating in CO post 2030 (asides from maybe a TriState unit) so the lines are still vital for all that dirty carbon coming out the PWR. I doubt BSNF is suddenly willing to drop their upgrade/leasing requirements by a ton. Maybe you'd end up with a couple hundred million in cost reductions at the most.

I don't think your deep thought has a ton or merit in terms of BSNF suddenly being desperate to monetize a suddenly defunct rail line.

[TakeFive]

The Funding way Forward

The American Rescue Plan is supposed to have another $20 billion for transit. Whatever RTD's share will help a lot but hardly enough to fund Commuter Rail to Boulder.

Biden also held a 'bipartisan' meeting in the Oval where he stated: "China is going to ‘eat our lunch’ if U.S. doesn’t get moving on infrastructure"
This might be the biggest hope for funding Polis' dream. Not sure it's the "highest and best use" but whatever.

Originally Posted by mr1138

While it is also my understanding that the long-term plan would be to put it adjacent the LRT terminal, I have never understood exactly why a Front Range Rail service could not use the regular DUS trainshed.

Waaay over my head but two-way ability sounds like the only way to roll.

I'm having great difficulty envisioning all this. We already have EMU's running up to Westminster and it makes good sense to extend the existing B Line to Westminster's new downtown at 88th and U.S. 36 (where it could intersect with the Flatiron Flyer). Would a commuter train to Boulder/Longmont be a totally different train and route? How does this work?

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I don't think your deep thought has a ton or merit in terms of BSNF suddenly being desperate to monetize a suddenly defunct rail line.

- NVM; what is "PWR" ?