Calgary International Airport II

[Cage]

Originally Posted by hehehe

Do different administrations change the DOT rulings significantly?

Yes, in the US when the political party in power changes, so does the top decision makers. This is less so in Canada where in the Deputy Ministers and Assistant Deputy Ministers don’t immediately offer their resignation when there is a change in power.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by hehehe

Do different administrations change the DOT rulings significantly?

I believe the AA/QF JV ran into problems under the Obama administration and they re-filed under the Trump admin and it was approved.

So in theory DL/WS could re-submit in February once the Biden admin comes into power and get different results.

What I don't get is why they are waiting for a JV to offer mutual FF benefits. A JV isn't needed to do this.

[hollywoodcory]

In this weekend's update, AA has upguaged both DFW and PHX to mainline 319 in January. PHX is currently scheduled to resume next Wednesday on AA.

AA continues to be our largest foreign carrier.

[casper]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Here's the announcement anyone looking to travel to Hawaii has been waiting for:
http://westjet.mediaroom.com/2020-11-19-...ved-pre-flight-testing-for-Hawaii-travel

WS to offer approved pre-flight testing for Hawaii.

Edit: Air Canada as well. This should mean we'll at least get YYC-OGG out of AC.
https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2020-11-...Quarantine-for-Canadians-Going-to-Hawaii

LifeLabs who run the provincial government funded community blood testing labs in BC, SK and Ontario announced that they are going to start doing COVID antibody testing in BC. Not certain about the other provinces or if this test meets the WS/AC requirements.


https://www.burnabynow.com/sports/lifelabs-covid-19-antibody-test-now-available-in-b-c-1.24243899

[hollywoodcory]

YYC October stats.

Domestic 310,178 -70.4% (Year-to-date: 3,843,898 -63.83%)
Transborder 13,717 -95.3% (Year-to-date: 765,526 -74.18%)
International 8,061 -93.1% (Year-to-date: 483,932 -70.04%)
October Total: 331,956 -77.2%

2020 Year-to-date: 5,093,356 -66.54%

Total overall international pax surpassed 20,000 even before the trial program kicked in. Pretty solid month overall.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by casper

LifeLabs who run the provincial government funded community blood testing labs in BC, SK and Ontario announced that they are going to start doing COVID antibody testing in BC. Not certain about the other provinces or if this test meets the WS/AC requirements.


https://www.burnabynow.com/sports/lifelabs-covid-19-antibody-test-now-available-in-b-c-1.24243899

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2020-11-...-COVID-19-Testing-Solution-For-Customers

AC is partnering with Shoppers for pre-flight testing.

AC service to Hawaii from YYC is planed from December 18 2x weekly.

[hollywoodcory]

YYC December international/transborder outlook
*subject to change*

Based on advance bookings, this month could see up to 50,000 dep/arr international travelers. Between 3 airlines there is 11 routes planned to resume.

Air Canada
*Welcome back to the ITB AC. Hope your counters didn't get too dusty*
PHX - 2x weekly (Includes Jetz flights on Sat from Dec. 19)
OGG - 2x weekly (From Dec 18)
CUN - 1x weekly (From Dec 19)
PVR - 1x weekly (From Dec 18)

WestJet
PHX - Up to 2x daily
PSP - Up to 6x weekly
LAX - Up to 4x weekly
LAS - 2x weekly (from Dec 17)
OGG - 2x weekly (from Dec 19)
MCO - 1x weekly (from Dec 19)
HNL - 1x weekly (from Dec 20)
PVR - Up to 1x daily
CUN - Up to 6x weekly
SJD - Up to 3x weekly
HUX - 1x weekly (from Dec 19)
MZT - 1x weekly (from Dec 19)

American Airlines
DFW - Up to 2x daily
PHX - 1x daily

United Airlines
DEN - Up to 2x daily

Delta Airlines
MSP - 1x daily

KLM
AMS - 3x weekly
YEG/AMS - 2x weekly

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Now with WS aggressively expanding internationally, there really isn't much room left for them to grow here. I expect AC will keep LHR/FRA, but I'm unsure about NRT.

WS is battered and they may delay their 4 remaining 789s if they haven't already. LHR and FRA I think are safe based on AC trying to restart them all the time. I think NRT will remain as seasonal on a 788. This route has been profitable in summer.

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

For now, the only confusing factor with AC is they aren't even willing to maintain a decent domestic network. Anyone traveling within the Prairies (AB/SK/MB) will be forced to make out of the way connections in Vancouver or Toronto. Back in May, this even applied to anyone trying to travel between Calgary & Edmonton too.

To be fair, AC's domestic prairie network has always been #2 compared to WS. Other than YVR, AC is weak west of Ontario. COVID simply pushed both carriers to entrench in their primary hubs - YVR for AC and YYC for WS. WS's capacity out of YVR isn't very good right now either, although they've at least maintained some basic service.

YYC-YEG/YWG/YXE/YQR there's no comparison though in terms of capacity, size of planes and frequency of service, now and pre-COVID. Now, if only WS had a real loyalty program instead of their new $5 off fares.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

WS is battered and they may delay their 4 remaining 789s if they haven't already. LHR and FRA I think are safe based on AC trying to restart them all the time. I think NRT will remain as seasonal on a 788. This route has been profitable in summer.

To be fair, AC's domestic prairie network has always been #2 compared to WS. Other than YVR, AC is weak west of Ontario. COVID simply pushed both carriers to entrench in their primary hubs - YVR for AC and YYC for WS. WS's capacity out of YVR isn't very good right now either, although they've at least maintained some basic service.

YYC-YEG/YWG/YXE/YQR there's no comparison though in terms of capacity, size of planes and frequency of service, now and pre-COVID. Now, if only WS had a real loyalty program instead of their new $5 off fares.

Took me a second to remember when I posted that.

Anyways, I do agree FRA & LHR will be back at some point. FRA first, and LHR once YVR-LHR has recovered enough. I'm still unsure about NRT though (at least this summer).

I know WS mentioned considering deferring 787 deliveries, but they have not done so as of yet. As far as I'm aware, they are still expecting to have 10 by the end of next year. They already made minor changes to the 787 schedule in S21 including YYC-CDG increased to daily and extended into early November, and YYZ-BCN being swapped to a 789 and even looks like their targeting DXB for potential service too.

As for AC's domestic network, it has improved since I posted that back in June re-adding YWG/YLW/YOW/YYJ.

[hollywoodcory]

WestJet appears to be planning to resume ZIH and LIR in January bringing their total international/Transborder offering to 14.

Also the 789 is planned to fly to CUN on Friday/Saturday.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

WestJet appears to be planning to resume ZIH and LIR in January bringing their total international/Transborder offering to 14.

Also the 789 is planned to fly to CUN on Friday/Saturday.

Planned January Ops:
YYC-PVR 6x weekly
YYC-CUN 3x weekly
YYC-SJD 3x weekly
YYC-MZT 1x weekly
YYC-HUX 1x weekly
YYC-ZIH 1x weekly*
YYC-LIR 1x weekly*
YYC-PHX 8x weekly
YYC-PSP 6x weekly
YYC-LAX 3x weekly
YYC-MCO 1x weekly
YYC-LAS 2x weekly
YYC-HNL 1x weekly
YYC-OGG 2x weekly

Additionally WS is keeping YOW, while AC is dropping it again. ZIH/LIR both scheduled to resume January 9th. 787 continues to fly to YYZ everyday except for Saturdays when it flies to OGG/CUN.

[hollywoodcory]

YYC November stats

Domestic 251,670 -71.4%
Transborder 19,853 -92.8%
International 11,626 -91.5%
November Total: 283,149 -78.1%
Year to date: 5,374,378 -67.46%

Some additional notes:
WS CUN/PVR 787 flights are now scheduled until April 10th. CUN on Fri/Sat starting Jan. 8 and PVR on Saturdays starting Jan. 23.

DL re-added SLC in March after removing it. However March is still too far away to be certain it will happen.

AA has mainline 319 DFW/PHX until end of February now. UA also planning 2x daily all mainline 319/738 ops in January.

AC removed FRA/LHR until March 27th. A full year since they last flew.

I heard WS is still planning to take delivery of all 4 787s in 2021. Be interesting to see what they have planned with 10 when demand won't have recovered all that much. Only this month did they finally get the 6 they have now busy. In terms of international I can only really see LGW & CDG returning. DUB/FCO are 40/60.

Or maybe they'll just keep them flying to Mexico and Hawaii all summer.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

I heard WS is still planning to take delivery of all 4 787s in 2021. Be interesting to see what they have planned with 10 when demand won't have recovered all that much. Only this month did they finally get the 6 they have now busy. In terms of international I can only really see LGW & CDG returning. DUB/FCO are 40/60.

My guess is they got a deal if they took them in 2021 and this is part of the MAX compensation.

S2021 789 -
LGW-YYC/YYZ/YVR - YVR might be reduced frequency though
YYZ-YYC/YVR (can keep 2 frames busy on this)
YYZ-CDG

My guess is they will try FCO and DUB but with reduced frequency, even if weekly.

Normally I'd say they'd roll the dice on new routes but WS is so risk averse it's hard to say. I would have expected an Asian destination next year.

[hollywoodcory]

WestJet mentioned a few months back that they may defer some of their 787 deliveries. They probably worked out a deal with Boeing, maybe in part compensation for the MAX groundings and agreed to take all 4 expected deliveries in 2021.

As I mentioned, be interesting to see what they do with 10 given they're barely using the 6 they have now.

-----

Speaking of 787s, Air Canada has followed WS and upped YYC-CUN to a 789 (at least in January). I'm guessing Sunwing is using WS' flights to CUN for their packages from Alberta, as I don't see any WG metal scheduled in January when they announced their resuming service.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

My guess is they got a deal if they took them in 2021 and this is part of the MAX compensation.

S2021 789 -
LGW-YYC/YYZ/YVR - YVR might be reduced frequency though
YYZ-YYC/YVR (can keep 2 frames busy on this)
YYZ-CDG

My guess is they will try FCO and DUB but with reduced frequency, even if weekly.

Normally I'd say they'd roll the dice on new routes but WS is so risk averse it's hard to say. I would have expected an Asian destination next year.

YYC-CDG I'd say will happen too. They previously upped it to daily for S21. Last night's schedule update though delayed its resumption by about 3 weeks to late March and probably further pushed back to May.

They just might get the opportunity to be the only carrier flying to LON as its unclear when AC will resume LHR and BA is now gone.

As for replacing the 767s, if my memory serves me correct they were only planned on flying YYZ-BCN/MBJ and a few domestic runs between YYZ-YVR/YYC? Wouldn't be surprised if WS puts the 787 on YYZ-MBJ runs in Feb/Mar and April similar to YYC-PVR/CUN.

They also have slots for DXB, which with the right agreement with EK could work feeding onward connections to South Asia (like Sri Lanka / Pakistan, etc) similar to what AC is doing with DOH & Qatar.

On another note LTO & ZLO have also been cut for the rest of the season too. JFK/DEN pushed to late March/April.

Originally Posted by agamemnon

Meanwhile—I don't think this has been mentioned yet—it looks like BA is gone for good. No official announcement, but it's being reported widely, e.g. https://www.businesstraveller.com/busine...ys-drops-many-long-haul-routes-for-2021/ (A number of sources including this one call it a "permanent suspension", an oxymoron which I presume is an awkward attempt at euphemism; it seems pretty clear that "permanent" is the crux.)

In any case: this is hardly a surprise.

It's interesting to note that among BA's relatively recent/unique/marginal/creative North American destinations, AUS/BNA/BWI/MSY/SJC live to see another day (for now), while CHS/PIT/YYC and PDX (never started) do not.

Airlines don't usually announce when they are dropping routes. This was reported because it was one of 13 long haul routes cut. I also suspect Condor and Edelweiss will drop YYC too, leaving KLM as the sole foreign long haul carrier.

[YYCFlier]

It is likely BA never returns or at least not for several years. I think LHR and FRA will be back as soon as AC can profitably operate them which should be by summer. LGW will likely return in spring. I agree with CDG and missed that one. I hate to lose BA but it will strengthen the route for WS and AC. I think NRT will come back in 2022 if it doesn’t operate in 2021 lest WS scoop TYO.

DXB is a weird choice unless they have some agreement with EK in the works and intend to operate out of YYC and YVR. They might be motivated now that AC is in bed with Etihad and Qatar.

[YYCFlier]

I saw a Routes article that seemed to imply YYC will again pull ahead of YUL this year and due to our high domestic traffic might be the least impacted airport in Canada (down 69%). Bizarre.

[hollywoodcory]

YYC already has surpassed YUL in terms of overall pax this year. All that really shows is how strong domestic is here and how important WS is to YYC.

I will say international/US traffic is recovering quicker than I expected (even before the testing pilot). LF's on most routes seem to be good too. MCO/LAS are performing better than I thought they would, and looks like advance bookings (at least for WS) continue to be good right into January.

I don't think we will see much change to the Summer schedule until its clear if the slot waiver is extended again.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

It is likely BA never returns or at least not for several years. I think LHR and FRA will be back as soon as AC can profitably operate them which should be by summer. LGW will likely return in spring. I agree with CDG and missed that one. I hate to lose BA but it will strengthen the route for WS and AC. I think NRT will come back in 2022 if it doesn’t operate in 2021 lest WS scoop TYO.

DXB is a weird choice unless they have some agreement with EK in the works and intend to operate out of YYC and YVR. They might be motivated now that AC is in bed with Etihad and Qatar.

WestJet already has a codeshare agreement with Emerites. DXB makes a lot sense for WestJet. There will be some premium traffic from Calgary into the middle east due to the oil connections. A lot of that traffic would have been flying through Heathrow. The WS aircraft are economy heavy and that makes sense for feeding connecting traffic into India, Pakistan etc. There is likely some cargo revenue to be made on the route.

As for AC, I think the issue for them is at some point Heathrow is going to go back to having a use it or lose it policy on slots. I believe they have either 2 or 3 slot pairs that only work for Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg. When exactly Heathrow going back to being concerned is hard to know.

[hollywoodcory]

Happy New Year everyone. In 2021, WS has new routes to BOS / FCO and YDQ planned (all originally scheduled in 2020, still too early to determine whether they'll happen this year).

Here's what's happening in January:

-WS resumes flights to LIR & ZIH
-WS & AC upguaging CUN to 789 / WS to PVR as well mid-month.
-AA & UA both up to mainline 319 twice daily (AA 1x each DFW / PHX & UA 2x DEN)
-DL increases to 2x daily
-HNL downguaged to a 73W.