[Burnaby] The Amazing Brentwood | 15 Towers | 186m | 56 flrs | U/C & Proposed

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by s211

I pulled that utilizing more than 30 years of commercial real estate experience and direct conversations with other development companies. You?

For what your indicating we would have to see the market recede exponential numbers. The only projects I see stalling out are the last in wave of developers that have bought property priced 20 plus percent above assessed value and are using higher leverage lenders

The job postings for site management have not slowed down. Neither have the companies in the market that are working on a 10 plus year plan. Example are some of the mall redevelopments they are 15 year build outs.

[Tangeray]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Where did you pull that idea from? Acid trip?

Sites are breaking ground all over the city. Some have had the schedule pushed slightly but the building boom in Metro Vancouver is not disappearing any time soon. I have not done the math but I do recall a recent article that states we are still not building to the current immigration/growth capacity of the area.

Agreed. From a macro point of view, Vancouver is still one of the most desirable cities in the world and remains the goals and aspirations of many globally. People still and will continue to come here and the city will only continue to grow in population.

[s211]

Glad to see there's so many real estate experts out there. Show me your post-COVID pro-forma and let's have a coffee to discuss. And I'll tell you what other developers are telling me.

[Metro-One]

Obviously there are many projects that will still be moving ahead because they have already been largely pre-sold, so there won’t be much immediate slowdown, but even I can figure that anything that was in the proposal or vision stage will likely be on hold for some time to come.

Now obviously that doesn’t mean that no new projects will move forward, but things will obviously become slower and a lot less predictable.

[SpongeG]

some pics from May 20

2020-05-20_11-53-46 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-54-07 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-54-14 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-54-19 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-54-24 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-54-29 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-54-36 by snub_you, on Flickr

whats going to go here? some kind of signage?
2020-05-20_11-54-41 by snub_you, on Flickr

this is on the starbucks door, its a certificate of completion
2020-05-20_11-54-46 by snub_you, on Flickr

they haven't planted anything around the tree just weeds
2020-05-20_11-54-58 by snub_you, on Flickr

you can walk into the fountain
2020-05-20_11-55-03 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-08 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-16 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-21 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-26 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-30 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-34 by snub_you, on Flickr

I think these were in the plaza area before covid hit
2020-05-20_11-55-39 by snub_you, on Flickr

the wood on the ground is an interesting choice
2020-05-20_11-55-46 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-50 by snub_you, on Flickr

2020-05-20_11-55-55 by snub_you, on Flickr

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by s211

Glad to see there's so many real estate experts out there. Show me your post-COVID pro-forma and let's have a coffee to discuss. And I'll tell you what other developers are telling me.

You can say that would have happened when Bill 28 came into effect in 2016. The city did not shut down or did all the developers leave this market. The larger developers are invest in property years if not decades before developing. Bosa, Concord, Concert, Cressy, Onni, etc. All own vast amounts of property and have 15 20 year plans so I doubt Covid has any more effect than a change on government in China. Our market is global and also very domestic. The last time we actually had developers react negatively was the late 90s when we experience a drain of people leaving BC to other parts of Canada.

If these Developers are saying they don't know how to make money anymore why am I getting offered 20 plus % wage and truck allowances to switch companies and they all have a well planned 20 year plan

[rofina]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

You can say that would have happened when Bill 28 came into effect in 2016. The city did not shut down or did all the developers leave this market. The larger developers are invest in property years if not decades before developing. Bosa, Concord, Concert, Cressy, Onni, etc. All own vast amounts of property and have 15 20 year plans so I doubt Covid has any more effect than a change on government in China. Our market is global and also very domestic. The last time we actually had developers react negatively was the late 90s when we experience a drain of people leaving BC to other parts of Canada.

If these Developers are saying they don't know how to make money anymore why am I getting offered 20 plus % wage and truck allowances to switch companies and they all have a well planned 20 year plan

Surprising to see offers like that out there. That's interesting, lot of layoffs industry wide over the last couple of months. Fully expecting wages to freeze at best, but likely move down for new hires.

Bid sheets have dropped by insane amounts, 50-60%. For most its been much worse than a recession. Its not normal to have a 60% drop off in new business in a period of 4 weeks.

Trickle flowing in now, but only a trickle.

[Tangeray]

Originally Posted by s211

Glad to see there's so many real estate experts out there. Show me your post-COVID pro-forma and let's have a coffee to discuss. And I'll tell you what other developers are telling me.

Chill bud im just saying long term future vision of the city. Im no real estate guy or developer so yes four flex of your insider knowledge and roman jargon beats me.

[VarBreStr18]

Canada/Vancouver is just hit with speed bump... a short term halt. But it will come back stronger. Just look at the fundamentals: health care, political stability, gun control, diverse ethnic acceptability, environment... Where else would you rather live in the world? No one is fighting to immigrate to the
U S, China, UK, EU. Especially after this pandemic , the world sees clearly which is a better country to live. Hence immigration will surge . Proud and lucky to be Canadian.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Tangeray

Chill bud im just saying long term future vision of the city. Im no real estate guy or developer so yes four flex of your insider knowledge and roman jargon beats me.

That's what someone speaking with actual knowledge of the industry looks like. No need to get offended.

If he told you 3/4 main Vancouver developers are about to go bust it would surely have an effect on your long term views of the City.

The issue is simple if the proforma doesn't work out green, there wont be building.

Population growth is key but not an automatic guarantee of more building.

You have to consider land costs, construction costs, development fees, financing fees, lawyers, advertising, etc.

And now you have Covid - and who actually knows what that means? Is this the end of mass immigration? Is this the end of tourism as we know it? Is this the end of close quarters living? Are the suburbs about to have a resurgence?

Who knows, maybe nothing changes, maybe everything changes. But its definitely not the time to stake $200 million on a new project when all your educated guesses based on previous market conditions are null and void.

[cairnstone]

What I have seen effected and heard about through the industry is some of the construction financing has been pulled on a few projects that have poor track record and or marginally viable. As the construction finance is a whole different game of cat and mouse. From groups of insurance companies, growth businesses pension etc all pooling money for higher returns that re somewhat safe. But if there core business is down some of the funding goes away with it.

I have heard of a bunch of self financed projects going ahead that never did any pre-sale and will start selling when they reach a certain milestone.

[s211]

Originally Posted by rofina

not the time to stake $200 million on a new project when all your educated guesses based on previous market conditions are null and void.

Nail hits head.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by s211

Practically every development pro-forma has been thrown in the dumpster, because they're now useless. Until someone is able to construct a fulsome and convincing pro-forma in this environment, I'd hazard that virtually every project we've heard of is now in a land of certain uncertainty.

Practically every proforma? That's a very very strong statement. Did these people buy land at its price peak? Are they selling condos and are those condos a little "over priced".

If you've owned the land for years practically the only major factor is when you go to market (as in between now and October) and construction costs.

[Spr0ckets]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

some pics from May 20
.......

Fantastic images.

Thanks for posting them.

[bankai01]

A side from all the heat on this thread, I am curious has anyone received their completion date yet? I heard lower floors for tower 2 are moving in during June.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by bankai01

A side from all the heat on this thread, I am curious has anyone received their completion date yet? I heard lower floors for tower 2 are moving in during June.

There is a separate thread for owners discussion, completion, possession dates, etc. You will get much more pertinent answers there.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Practically every proforma? That's a very very strong statement. Did these people buy land at its price peak? Are they selling condos and are those condos a little "over priced".

If you've owned the land for years practically the only major factor is when you go to market (as in between now and October) and construction costs.

How do you measure demand? How do you measure " a little over priced?"

Unemployment is somewhere between 10-15%. Maybe more.
We have 40,000 + units being built.
Immigration is likely frozen for a year or two.
Foreign students are likely gone for a year or two.
Access to credit is getting more difficult - can no longer use home equity for DP on investment unit.
Tourism is down for a year at least - no investor demand for AirBnB
Higher vacancy, tenants market for rentals - will AirBnB hosts hold units beyond mortgage deferral? Rent them? Sell them?

How do you project any of that when deciding to green light a build? Or is the idea to come up with a pro-forma the that works out based on Pre-Covid assumptions and see if the market absorbs the units in current conditions?

Either way, a pro-forma is already educated guess work, but you cant even make guesses using previous recessions as a guiding tool because the conditions for once are truly unparalleled.

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Practically every proforma? That's a very very strong statement. Did these people buy land at its price peak? Are they selling condos and are those condos a little "over priced".

If you've owned the land for years practically the only major factor is when you go to market (as in between now and October) and construction costs.

Sounds like the people he is talking about are the developers want 1200 plus a per squarefoot and have poor history performance history. I heard there is a ground breaking next week for another fair size richmond complex south of city hall. Im going to say its up around 150 M in construction costs.

[s211]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Practically every proforma? That's a very very strong statement. Did these people buy land at its price peak? Are they selling condos and are those condos a little "over priced".

If you've owned the land for years practically the only major factor is when you go to market (as in between now and October) and construction costs.

Only major factor is costs??????

Let's see: financing terms, projected revenues, demand levels, reliability of supply chain...

I'm done with this discussion. I still have a full-time job in the real estate world to attend to, and this discussion frustrates the hell out of me.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by VarBreStr18

Canada/Vancouver is just hit with speed bump... a short term halt. But it will come back stronger. Just look at the fundamentals: health care, political stability, gun control, diverse ethnic acceptability, environment... Where else would you rather live in the world? No one is fighting to immigrate to the
U S, China, UK, EU. Especially after this pandemic , the world sees clearly which is a better country to live. Hence immigration will surge . Proud and lucky to be Canadian.

Nobody is fighting to get into the USA, UK or EU? You might want to double-check your "research".