PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread X

[iheartphilly]

^
print it...inflation here we come...

[Jelly Roll]

Originally Posted by City Wide

Does anyone have first hand knowledge re the status of ongoing construction in east coast cities? I've read press that claims its been shut down and then the next day the construction is continuing.

For the most part it has shut down. Pa and New York stopped all construction weeks ago. New Jersey is only allowing essential projects to continue. That is hospitals and similar projects. In the past 3 weeks basically no new jobs have started in NJ and at that time there were no construction restrictions in place. Now NJ is only allowing essential jobs to continue working. I know of multiple projects that have already been pushed to a 2021 start date instead of starting spring 2020. It’s easier to push the job start dates as opposed to starting and having to stop.

[iheartphilly]

I'm thinking they can social distance these construction workers doing different tasks 6 ft or more apart with face masks, temperature checks before enter worksites, and self-monitoring of symptoms and quick testing if necessary. These aren't the large gatherings that will be the last to come back online when things get back to some normalization.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

There are so many factors no one can predict. Bc of layoffs we will see less people buying new homes so home prices may drop allowing new wave of people to rejuvenate an area.

JPMorgan is raising borrowing standards and I am sure many banks will follow suit so this will definitely have an impact. As of now details are that a credit score of at least 700 and 20% down are required.

[ScreamShatter]

Why would any developer build right now when we are in recession headed for depression? Most of these projects that aren’t completed are likely dead or will be.

Where I think the city could be helpful is doing infrastructure projects. The roads can safely be repaved right now with very little disruption. It’d be a good way to make the best of a crappy situation, at least.

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

JPMorgan is raising borrowing standards and I am sure many banks will follow suit so this will definitely have an impact. As of now details are that a credit score of at least 700 and 20% down are required.

Hadn’t heard that. But makes sense.

Phillys market already had a sliver of a bubble. I noticed $550k houses sitting on the market for 2-5 months in some areas. Prices needed to come down before this crisis and recent events compound that situation. Sigh.

[Ritz48]

Originally Posted by SEFTA

The next month, or 2 or 3 will tell the tale.
Do you believe Trump's relief package will find it's way to small business?
Do you believe Trump's relief package will find it's way into the pockets of service industry workers etc?
Will more money mysteriously go more to red states than to blue?
Will Trump's relief package be bailing out long struggling transit companies?
This will be defining our futures.

First this is not Trump's anything. He is merely signed it. He likely didn't even read it.

I have applied for the PPP plan simply to buy some more time for my business. I expect my service business will receive the loan. Bank of America has already reviewed for the SBA. The problem is that if I use 75% of the loan to pay my employees who are currently laid off, then this leaves 1 month of rent and expenses. We closed March 16 and expect that there will be nothing normal until at least June/July. I have informed my landlords (9 locations) that they will only be paid with what is left after I pay my employees which will likely leave them without payment for May/June. Most have chosen not to comment one way or the other. They have all reminded me they have obligations to their banks. If we go out of business and other similar businesses do as well, they likely will default as well.

The biggest concern is that there is no plan now or in the future to widely test for the Virurs In fact Trump has clearly stated that this is not something that will be pursued nationally. There is no way to reasonably gear up without the War Powers Act from 10's of thousand to 100's of thousands of tests a day. As was pointed out if the Grinch stole everyone's shoes overnight, that this country would come up with a plan to replace them in days and weeks and not simply ignore that this is essential. There is 0 doubt this is a political calculation that if testing becomes robust which are currently a joke at less than 1% tested nationally, the numbers of those infected would be in the millions and Trump's comments about a Democrat Hoax and 15 cases, will become overwhelming even for his followers and Fox News.

I do not expect a reasonable plan from a leader who does not even think beyond 24 hours let alone over the next to 3-6 months. We have lost so much time and there is no evidence we not lose more.

Without testing and tracking and isolating risky populations, the infections will start again. After taking the financial risks to reopen I anticipate we will have to close again. I will close permanently my business before I take the a chance of closing again without a reasonable plan. I have no confidence that's Trump's brain will come up with a coherent plan.

[Failte]

Originally Posted by Londonee

I mean, the parks aren't closed? I have 2 kids. We've spent a ton of afternoons - really any nice day - down at the River Park or in Fitler or Rittenhouse. Plenty of space away from people - picnic blanket, mimosas - laptop tethered to my phone. Things we kind of took for granted before - like access to these gorgeous parks - we've really been making the most of during the crisis. Everyone is of course practicing social distancing - no one within 30 feet of us, etc.

Also, my Manhattan friends have been enjoying Central Park more than they ever had before. The notion that everyone is cooped up in cities is just inaccurate.

Lots of non-social distancing though in Center City yesterday (Saturday) from a no protection, close-in cluster of 15-20 Black Israelites on Market Street, to lots of no proction wearing people congregating and hanging on Municipal Plaza (where the Rizzo statue is). Police doing nothing about it.

Then the forcibily removed SEPTA bus rider resulting in SEPTA no longer requiring face coverings. Of course the video has gone viral about repression in the U.S. One selfish idiot has now allowed further spread on transit and into the general community; at least 3 SEPTA workers have died from the Wuhan Flu.

Despite many residents doing what they're supposed to do, many aren't and are only contributing to prolonging all of us being stuck inside. Don't expect the Philly PD to be on this issue.

Then there's the additional excuses of ''this is a hoax'' and ''black males won't wear masks cuz they'll be profiled'' stories.

It's a bit too late for Mayor Kenney and Larry Krasner to ask residents to respect authority/police.

This is the time for everyone to be "All In''. This is life and death after all.

[Failte]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

JPMorgan is raising borrowing standards and I am sure many banks will follow suit so this will definitely have an impact. As of now details are that a credit score of at least 700 and 20% down are required.

This was also the ''new norm'' for a short time post 2008 depression start. Didn't last long though.

[Failte]

At least there hasn't been a reported homicide in Philly since Thursday (the 12th)...there had been no slow down in murders, despite these supposed stay at home orders until just 2 days ago (today is not over). Wow.

[City Wide]

Originally Posted by Ritz48

First this is not Trump's anything. He is merely signed it. He likely didn't even read it.

I have applied for the PPP plan simply to buy some more time for my business. I expect my service business will receive the loan. Bank of America has already reviewed for the SBA. The problem is that if I use 75% of the loan to pay my employees who are currently laid off, then this leaves 1 month of rent and expenses. We closed March 16 and expect that there will be nothing normal until at least June/July. I have informed my landlords (9 locations) that they will only be paid with what is left after I pay my employees which will likely leave them without payment for May/June. Most have chosen not to comment one way or the other. They have all reminded me they have obligations to their banks. If we go out of business and other similar businesses do as well, they likely will default as well.

The biggest concern is that there is no plan now or in the future to widely test for the Virurs In fact Trump has clearly stated that this is not something that will be pursued nationally. There is no way to reasonably gear up without the War Powers Act from 10's of thousand to 100's of thousands of tests a day. As was pointed out if the Grinch stole everyone's shoes overnight, that this country would come up with a plan to replace them in days and weeks and not simply ignore that this is essential. There is 0 doubt this is a political calculation that if testing becomes robust which are currently a joke at less than 1% tested nationally, the numbers of those infected would be in the millions and Trump's comments about a Democrat Hoax and 15 cases, will become overwhelming even for his followers and Fox News.

What are the repayment terms on these loans? I don't understand how a truly small business, like under 50 people, are suppose to continue paying for overhead----the fixed costs of being in business----for at least several months during which time the business will have very little to zero income, then attempt to restart which could take several more months to recover fully, if that even happens, and on top of everything else have a new expense to pay, meaning the loan. Even at 1% interest its still a new item that will need to be accounted for.

Has trump learned to read since he was elected? That wasn't one of his skill sets in the past.

[Jayfar]

Originally Posted by City Wide

What are the repayment terms on these loans? I don't understand how a truly small business, like under 50 people, are suppose to continue paying for overhead----the fixed costs of being in business----for at least several months during which time the business will have very little to zero income, then attempt to restart which could take several more months to recover fully, if that even happens, and on top of everything else have a new expense to pay, meaning the loan. Even at 1% interest its still a new item that will need to be accounted for.

Has trump learned to read since he was elected? That wasn't one of his skill sets in the past.

There are several loan programs, but the main one people are talking about is the Paycheck Protection Program, where the loan actually becomes an outright grant (forgivable loan) if certain conditions are met, otherwise 1% interest:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/202...w-about-the-paycheck-protection-program/

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by Jayfar

There are several loan programs, but the main one people are talking about is the Paycheck Protection Program, where the loan actually becomes an outright grant (forgivable loan) if certain conditions are met, otherwise 1% interest:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/202...w-about-the-paycheck-protection-program/

The real issue now is that no one seems to be getting any of the money yet - every day, every hour kind of critical to small business owners. But the administration bungled the roll-out, and banks are waiting on paying the loans till all their questions are answered and they receive their guarantees.

The Trump administration has seen an epidemic of talent leakage - folks fleeing this knucklehead - at all rungs of the executive branch bureaucracy and this reality is really piper-paying time now. It's not the Stephen Millers who actually execute policy at the SBa or the CDC - it's a mid-level career bureaucrat with 30 years experience whose seen it all - who unfortunately resigned to the private sector 3 racist comments ago and was replaced by some kid from Liberty University - if they were even replaced at all. The only thing worse than a bloated bureaucracy is an incompetent bloated bureaucracy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen...till-waiting-for-the-money/#57f78c0a54fb

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by Failte

This was also the ''new norm'' for a short time post 2008 depression start. Didn't last long though.

There's more differences with this crisis vs '08's so it's tough to compare.

Originally Posted by Ritz48

First this is not Trump's anything. He is merely signed it. He likely didn't even read it.

I have applied for the PPP plan simply to buy some more time for my business. I expect my service business will receive the loan. Bank of America has already reviewed for the SBA. The problem is that if I use 75% of the loan to pay my employees who are currently laid off, then this leaves 1 month of rent and expenses. We closed March 16 and expect that there will be nothing normal until at least June/July. I have informed my landlords (9 locations) that they will only be paid with what is left after I pay my employees which will likely leave them without payment for May/June. Most have chosen not to comment one way or the other. They have all reminded me they have obligations to their banks. If we go out of business and other similar businesses do as well, they likely will default as well.

The biggest concern is that there is no plan now or in the future to widely test for the Virurs In fact Trump has clearly stated that this is not something that will be pursued nationally. There is no way to reasonably gear up without the War Powers Act from 10's of thousand to 100's of thousands of tests a day. As was pointed out if the Grinch stole everyone's shoes overnight, that this country would come up with a plan to replace them in days and weeks and not simply ignore that this is essential. There is 0 doubt this is a political calculation that if testing becomes robust which are currently a joke at less than 1% tested nationally, the numbers of those infected would be in the millions and Trump's comments about a Democrat Hoax and 15 cases, will become overwhelming even for his followers and Fox News.

I do not expect a reasonable plan from a leader who does not even think beyond 24 hours let alone over the next to 3-6 months. We have lost so much time and there is no evidence we not lose more.

Without testing and tracking and isolating risky populations, the infections will start again. After taking the financial risks to reopen I anticipate we will have to close again. I will close permanently my business before I take the a chance of closing again without a reasonable plan. I have no confidence that's Trump's brain will come up with a coherent plan.

And this is the reality for many people in your same situation, I am really sorry to hear. The ripple effect of this is going to be damaging and will be felt for a while.

[Jawnadelphia]

Phenomenal pic of Philly, I thought worth sharing:


https://www.instagram.com/p/B-lIll-DDlV/

[Failte]

[QUOTE=EastSideHBG;8892278]There's more differences with this crisis vs '08's so it's tough to compare.

Right, it's not apples to apples necessarily. Post was related more to the whole stingent lending requirements in 2008-ish that didn't last long despite the dire warnings about long-term lending difficulties.

[colemonkee]

^ Beautiful!!

[SEFTA]

delete

[PurpleWhiteOut]

Honestly this is so unprecidented. While I'm sure many people in Philly are having second thoughts (I mean, even I thought about it as a renter but would never give up my commute), New Yorkers would probably consider Philly to be considerably less dense while keeping an urban lifestyle and may even speed up their flight from NYC to Philly. There are so many variables that I don't think we could accurately predict what happens here. Personally, despite being in a big city where I am required to still work in person, I have felt that I have been able to keep myself adequately safe. But in NYC I'd be having a panic attack

[SJPhillyBoy]

Amazing photo.