PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread X

[Urbanthusiat]

I also think Philly makes it out better here than most other places. Looking at the charts with regards to total cases and deaths, given how close we are to NYC/NJ - we look pretty good, and our hospital capacity is a lot better than most places.

But more broadly, as others have said we're strong in Eds and Meds which are less affected by this. We saw a dynamic in the last recession where Philly's population growth was strongest immediately after and slowed as the economy improved. I think there is some sort of counter-cyclicality of being a place that has negative net migration during a downturn, where a lot of people come back and stay back as opportunities dry up elsewhere. I personally know at least three people who lost their jobs in other states who have come back to live at home in Philly, and my guess is at least one of them will eventually find a job here and stay.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Just devil's advocating that the same thing was prognosticated of NYC post 9/11... desirability, safety, is it *really* worth the premium for businesses to be here, etc. And that lasted for like 6 months.

I didn't say businesses still wouldn't want to locate there. I explicity said they would continue to do so.

What I said that is different is that you won't be expected to live in NY in order to work for one of them.

That evolution was already under way...but this event will just accelerate it.

[Boku]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

This. As someone who works in New York but has a presence in Philadelphia, I think ultimately NY is going to lose some of its stickiness, if you will.

I live in Brooklyn during the week and work for a company (in Manhattan) which already has a relatively liberal work from home policy. Just yesterday, I was talking to my head of HR on an entirely different matter and I explicitly asked her 1. what her best guess (honest) estimate was on when we'd be back in the office and 2. what she saw as the effects of this thing.

She said, 1. June 1st and even then, it would be "optional" as people are rightly worried about commuting on NYC subways. And 2. she said it's proven that we can have an even more lenient WFH policy than we do, because as a company, we've proven we can continue to accomplish our goals remotely (we've launch a ton of new heavy lift initiatives in the last month during WFH and it hasn't seemed to have effected things).

That being said, we will continue to have an office in Manhattan, as it's where the executives want to be, but there will be less pressure to be in the office on a daily basis. Which would mean, over time, we would probably shrink our footprint on a per person basis.

I've already thought that if I could work from home even 2 days a week (consistently), I could relinquish my apartment in BK and just do the long haul commute 3 days a week on Amtrak. If I didn't come all the way back to Philly permanently, I could at least do somewhere like Yardley and commute to NYC on NJ Transit, then continue to spend my weekends as I already do in Philadelphia.

If I could give up my NY residency, I would save about 15-20K in taxes alone.

The other thing that this has demonstrated is that the healthcare in NYC is basically shit relative to the stature of the city. I know Cuomo is doing everything he can do, but I left town (NYC) because god forbid something were to happen to me, I don't want to be in any of those hospitals. The morbidity rate in NYC is much higher than other 1st tier cities in the US. It's terrifying right now.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with you, but if that happens on a large scale, what are the consequences? You noted the amount of taxes you would save, but that's money that isn't going to the city to pay for services. If fewer people are taking public transportation, that's fewer public transportation jobs. What about the lunches you buy? Will food service workers lose jobs because more people are working from home? I suppose the jobs would shift to somewhere else. I can envision firms asking the city/state for more incentives in order to keep the status quo.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Boku

Not agreeing or disagreeing with you, but if that happens on a large scale, what are the consequences? You noted the amount of taxes you would save, but that's money that isn't going to the city to pay for services. If fewer people are taking public transportation, that's fewer public transportation jobs. What about the lunches you buy? Will food service workers lose jobs because more people are working from home? I suppose the jobs would shift to somewhere else. I can envision firms asking the city/state for more incentives in order to keep the status quo.

I dunno. Maybe some semblance of balance returns? Less pressure on rents is good for New Yorkers.

It's perhaps the only place in the country, other than San Francisco, where you can make $250k+ a year and still not be able to afford to buy an apartment. Renovated houses in BedStuy sell for $3M dollars these days. It's a 30 minute subway ride to Lower Manhattan. 50 to Midtown. (i.e. it's not even that close). The mortgage on $3M is is something like $8K a month with $600K down. To comfortably afford $8k a month, your post-tax pay needs to be upwards of $200k a year (I would argue more), or $400K+ pre tax.

This can only go on for so long before it breaks.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I didn't say businesses still wouldn't want to locate there. I explicity said they would continue to do so.

What I said that is different is that you won't be expected to live in NY in order to work for one of them.

That evolution was already under way...but this event will just accelerate it.

I wasn't really talking about businesses either. Cardeza said "I def think this is going to have an impact on the desirability of NYC long term," - and you said, "This." Which I took to mean that you agreed with that statement. Devil's advocating, that exact statement has been made about NYC on multiple occasions over the last 45 years and has never been proved true. My guess is NYC will be just fine.

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by Urbanthusiat

I also think Philly makes it out better here than most other places. Looking at the charts with regards to total cases and deaths, given how close we are to NYC/NJ - we look pretty good, and our hospital capacity is a lot better than most places.

But more broadly, as others have said we're strong in Eds and Meds which are less affected by this. We saw a dynamic in the last recession where Philly's population growth was strongest immediately after and slowed as the economy improved. I think there is some sort of counter-cyclicality of being a place that has negative net migration during a downturn, where a lot of people come back and stay back as opportunities dry up elsewhere. I personally know at least three people who lost their jobs in other states who have come back to live at home in Philly, and my guess is at least one of them will eventually find a job here and stay.

Some differences from this and last recession for Philly. Our population growth has slowed, tax abatements being reduced, and Mayor Kenney hinting yesterday that he’s submitting a new budget in May that will cut services and increase taxes.

I don’t know. If that’s the approach the city takes, we could start to see a population decrease soon.

[City Wide]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

Some differences from this and last recession for Philly. Our population growth has slowed, tax abatements being reduced, and Mayor Kenney hinting yesterday that he’s submitting a new budget in May that will cut services and increase taxes.

I don’t know. If that’s the approach the city takes, we could start to see a population decrease soon.

I didn't see any reports that mentioned tax increases, but its not hard to believe that they wouldn't be part of a package to balance the budget. What approach would you suggest that the City take to fill the hole in the budget this recession is creating?

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by City Wide

I didn't see any reports that mentioned tax increases, but its not hard to believe that they wouldn't be part of a package to balance the budget. What approach would you suggest that the City take to fill the hole in the budget this recession is creating?

He's increased spending by a billion dollars with nothing to show for it.

So. Start there.

I suspect the only people that will be "hurt" by those cuts are people who were given jobs (political hacks) which add little value in the first place. Ex: Blondell Reynolds Brown at the Register of Wills.

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by City Wide

I didn't see any reports that mentioned tax increases, but its not hard to believe that they wouldn't be part of a package to balance the budget. What approach would you suggest that the City take to fill the hole in the budget this recession is creating?

Oh man. I don’t have all the answers there. But what I do know is that if working from home is the new norm, raising taxes will potentially chase people out of the city.

I’m sensitive that there’s no way to really answer this question without a deep discussion on tax structure in Philly. I’d personally opt for cuts, government restructuring, automation, etc to help modernize the city gov. But that’s such a loaded convo. Being respectful to the detest of that topic on this forum, I’m going to pivot away from that topic and just acknowledge it’s complicated.

[allovertown]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Just devil's advocating that the same thing was prognosticated of NYC post 9/11... desirability, safety, is it *really* worth the premium for businesses to be here, etc. And that lasted for like 6 months.

Just my .02 from someone who lived in nyc for a few years just after 9/11, there was very much an attitude of fuck the terrorists and not letting them win etc. Staying in New York very much seemed like something a lot new yorkers did with a purpose.

It's hard to see the same attitude prevailing over a faceless, emotionless enemy that doesn't care about what New Yorkers do. This whole crisis has made it abundantly clear that if and when a pandemic like this happens again, the last place you want to be is in new york. The positives of New York obviously still exist and it's not like I'm predicting some sort of dramatic downfall or anything like that, but this is going to be a factor and it's hard to imagine this won't weight on a lot of people's minds and affect a lot of decisions over the next decade or so.

This isn't even just about hospital beds and mortality rates and everything like that. Just practically speaking, living in NYC is all about giving up space and other luxuries to gain proximity to the cultural utopia that is new york. There are a lot of people stuck in tiny studios right now that can't even go outside to enjoy the city. That's a REALLY tough place to be in and it's hard to imagine they won't be thinking extra hard about where they want to live when the time comes to renew their outlandish leases.

Even here in Philly where as others mentioned, things are going comparatively pretty well, I'm sure there are a lot of people right now regretting not bolting for more open space.

I mean, it was just a few years ago that we considered moving to the burbs, because my wife just couldn't take the commute to Princeton any longer. She ended up changing jobs instead and before this pandemic I don't think I've ever once even remotely regretted that decision. But as we approach a month stuck in a barely 1,000 square foot row home with zero green space and a two year old, I am definitely feeling regret right now. We looked at a place in Collingswood that was twice the size of our house, sitting on almost a quarter acre of land, and we would have saved money! What I wouldn't give to be able to lay out on a grass lawn under the sun right about now. What I wouldn't give for just some more space and not having this feeling that everyone is on top of me.

This will eventually end, and I assume I'll once again go back to being happy with our house that I've been happy to live in for almost a decade, as I assume most people will, but again, hard to imagine this has zero impact on where people decide to live in the next few years or more. What that impact is exactly though, seems impossible to predict at this point.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by allovertown

Just my .02 from someone who lived in nyc for a few years just after 9/11, there was very much an attitude of fuck the terrorists and not letting them win etc. Staying in New York very much seemed like something a lot new yorkers did with a purpose.

It's hard to see the same attitude prevailing over a faceless, emotionless enemy that doesn't care about what New Yorkers do. This whole crisis has made it abundantly clear that if and when a pandemic like this happens again, the last place you want to be is in new york. The positives of New York obviously still exist and it's not like I'm predicting some sort of dramatic downfall or anything like that, but this is going to be a factor and it's hard to imagine this won't weight on a lot of people's minds and affect a lot of decisions over the next decade or so.

This isn't even just about hospital beds and mortality rates and everything like that. Just practically speaking, living in NYC is all about giving up space and other luxuries to gain proximity to the cultural utopia that is new york. There are a lot of people stuck in tiny studios right now that can't even go outside to enjoy the city. That's a REALLY tough place to be in and it's hard to imagine they won't be thinking extra hard about where they want to live when the time comes to renew their outlandish leases.

Even here in Philly where as others mentioned, things are going comparatively pretty well, I'm sure there are a lot of people right now regretting not bolting for more open space.

I mean, it was just a few years ago that we considered moving to the burbs, because my wife just couldn't take the commute to Princeton any longer. She ended up changing jobs instead and before this pandemic I don't think I've ever once even remotely regretted that decision. But as we approach a month stuck in a barely 1,000 square foot row home with zero green space and a two year old, I am definitely feeling regret right now. We looked at a place in Collingswood that was twice the size of our house, sitting on almost a quarter acre of land, and we would have saved money! What I wouldn't give to be able to lay out on a grass lawn under the sun right about now. What I wouldn't give for just some more space and not having this feeling that everyone is on top of me.

This will eventually end, and I assume I'll once again go back to being happy with our house that I've been happy to live in for almost a decade, as I assume most people will, but again, hard to imagine this has zero impact on where people decide to live in the next few years or more. What that impact is exactly though, seems impossible to predict at this point.

I mean, the parks aren't closed? I have 2 kids. We've spent a ton of afternoons - really any nice day - down at the River Park or in Fitler or Rittenhouse. Plenty of space away from people - picnic blanket, mimosas - laptop tethered to my phone. Things we kind of took for granted before - like access to these gorgeous parks - we've really been making the most of during the crisis. Everyone is of course practicing social distancing - no one within 30 feet of us, etc.

Also, my Manhattan friends have been enjoying Central Park more than they ever had before. The notion that everyone is cooped up in cities is just inaccurate.

[Redddog]

I wouldn't worry top much about how NYC emerges from this. For everyone that leaves, there's ten people that would pounce on the chance to move in.

I was there during 9/11 (I was in the WTC 10 minutes before that first plane hit). Allovertown is absolutely right - it was very much "fuck the terrorists" directly following the attack. I remember packing in on boats from Hoboken (after the PATH was blown up) and thinking "Jesus...anyone on this boat could have a bomb strapped to their back." No one else seemed to think twice about that .

But this seems different.

[EastSideHBG]

Great points on both sides of the argument. As for me I don't feel as if a pandemic can be compared to anything else because as many have said it's faceless and a whole different kind of enemy that requires much different responses. I have always been content with my smaller apartment but I am not anymore now that I am forced to work remotely daily (and I love working remotely and did so often before this, but months at a time is a completely different situation and a dedicated space would be so helpful). Having little room to store extra food and supplies, no space for exercise equipment, etc. has also proven to be a bad thing for me; how many other people will be moving from the, "Yeah this is a nice to have," mentality to a, "Yeah I am going to need this for my survival," one?

My company's HQ is not in the area and there were always whispers and rumors of our site shutting down (and these rumors have a lot of merit because of so many steps that have been taken, especially recent ones and right before this pandemic hit) and now that is an even realer possibility; the cryptic emails come out once a week now about how we have learned that we can adapt and that maybe this is a viable option for the future... In the meantime we have been told that we will be back in our building mid-May but now it looks like it will be June. And while we thankfully did not have to do any layoffs yet, when this is all said and done we will need to make up for quite a bit and many folks will want to try to make that back as quickly as possible and we all know what the first step to accomplish that will be.

Also you have some of the more human factors at play here and how many people didn't think that it was a big deal to live far away from family but do now? I am only 1.5 hours away from the bulk of my family and there are days now where I wish that I was right around the corner. I have spoken to many people who live pretty far from their families and have told me that once this is over they are going to look into relocating ASAP.

I don't see gloom and doom and the complete collapse of cities but I do see some major changes and shifts coming and the only 09/11 comparison I currently make is that when you look back there will be a very clear pre and post world. For many people this situation has been completely life altering and there's evidence to suggest that this could happen again in six months, then again, then again...we just don't know what could happen at this point.

[Justin7]

^ People who are suddenly forced to function differently in a small space are generally going to struggle, but given time we adapt.*

*May not apply if you have too many children.

[New2Fishtown]

If as many small businesses close as some are anticipating, it's worrisome to consider how the value proposition of cities might diminish because the commercial areas that define neighborhoods will simply cease to exist or be shadows of their former selves. I don't think this is a foregone conclusion: I know in Fishtown many residents are rallying around local businesses and spending as much money on takeout food, groceries, and beer/wine as budgets can justify. That will in some cases give businesses the small cushion they need to come out the other side.

But inevitably many won't be able to reopen despite these well-intentioned efforts. They may not have enough cash on hand to re-hire, to re-order inventory, to put in the investment to get back up and running. And then similarly, many people who used to eat or drink out some number of nights a week might find themselves cutting back or avoiding altogether because they've lost their jobs in the interim. It's hard to know how big this ripple might be or what areas will be hardest hit, but it isn't hard to imagine that businesses in many areas would shutter, and then those spaces remain vacant for awhile either because few are in positions to launch new businesses during a recession or because the landlord themselves may be underwater on mortgage payments or be holding out for higher rents to offset their own losses.

I hope my description is more gloom and doom than reality, but it begs a question: if 25-75 percent of the businesses that define any given neighborhood cease to exist, do the residents of that neighborhood still enjoy living there as much? Is East Passyunk still East Passyunk without Cantina and POPE? Is Fishtown still Fishtown without Murph's and Johnny Brenda's? Is Cedar Park still Cedar Park without Dock Street and Dahlak? The simple answer is "of course they still are", but if a neighborhood's value is the sum of its amenity package (which could include the good school, a great park, friendly neighbors, and nearby businesses, housing stock, other intangibles), the degree to which people want to stay will hinge on how much weight they're putting into each of those buckets. Folks with kids already enrolled in a school or with dream jobs or homes might be more inclined to stay, but I can see a lot of younger or on-the-fence people saying, "you know what, X neighborhood or X city just isn't as cool as it was cracked up to be, so i'm out of here."

In an absolute best case scenario, Philly needs to be prepared for an avalanche of closings of long-standing and beloved businesses on a scale we couldn't have previously imagined. It will be painful to live through for anyone who appreciates how many of Philly's neighborhoods are defined by mom and pops. I'm sure many like me are tied to the city regardless and will happily accept and support newcomers that eventually back-fill these vacancies, but it's worth keeping in mind that the "normal" we'll be greeted with in however many months is still going to feel distinctly abnormal.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by New2Fishtown

In an absolute best case scenario, Philly needs to be prepared for an avalanche of closings of long-standing and beloved businesses on a scale we couldn't have previously imagined. It will be painful to live through for anyone who appreciates how many of Philly's neighborhoods are defined by mom and pops. I'm sure many like me are tied to the city regardless and will happily accept and support newcomers that eventually back-fill these vacancies, but it's worth keeping in mind that the "normal" we'll be greeted with in however many months is still going to feel distinctly abnormal.

That's best case? Jeesh - don't give anyone pep talks.

Best case is that most of these businesses float w/ minimal to no staff aside from the owners w/ PPP loans and Disaster recovery loans for the next 6-8 weeks and when restrictions ease in June they can slowly hire back as demand needs. That loan money is going to start dumping into these businesses (who all applied for it) over the next 2 weeks. As it is, most restaurants are all open w/ skeleton crews serving delivery/take out to cover their overhead expenses - their employees all let go weeks ago, enrolled on unemployment. Most restaurants are probably going to be fine.

Sure some debt-ridden stuff is going to close, but demand will dictate how quickly things take their place. The notion that tumbleweeds will be blowing down Frankford come September i think is misguided.

[ScreamShatter]

There are so many factors no one can predict. Bc of layoffs we will see less people buying new homes so home prices may drop allowing new wave of people to rejuvenate an area.

Im actively supporting all local businesses still in Fishtown. It will be different after. But it could create opportunities for new businesses to move in.

My biggest worry is Philly is going to overplay their hand, raise taxes, and it forces people to leave at a time when we need to make the city super cheap to attract more to help local businesses recover. It’d be great for Philly to suspend all taxes on small essential businesses right now to help them complete against the big chains.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

There are so many factors no one can predict. Bc of layoffs we will see less people buying new homes so home prices may drop allowing new wave of people to rejuvenate an area.

Im actively supporting all local businesses still in Fishtown. It will be different after. But it could create opportunities for new businesses to move in.

My biggest worry is Philly is going to overplay their hand, raise taxes, and it forces people to leave at a time when we need to make the city super cheap to attract more to help local businesses recover. It’d be great for Philly to suspend all taxes on small essential businesses right now to help them complete against the big chains.

Not possible. But over-taxation and tax increases would also be disastrous.

[iheartphilly]

^
I hope the city doesn't use this as an alibi to raise taxes.

[SEFTA]

The next month, or 2 or 3 will tell the tale.
Do you believe Trump's relief package will find it's way to small business?
Do you believe Trump's relief package will find it's way into the pockets of service industry workers etc?
Will more money mysteriously go more to red states than to blue?
Will Trump's relief package be bailing out long struggling transit companies?
This will be defining our futures.