Green Line LRT - $4.6 Billion Project

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by accord1999

It's probably easy to assign blame after the fact... but I do think their view is valid. It's likely now that even if somehow the City builds Stage 1 on-budget, there won't be money from the Province to reach North Pointe and Seton for a long time, making Stage 1 a poor investment given the capital and operating costs.

I think it's time to settle for a $5B Green Line with compromises and value engineering that at least gets substantially to the North and further into the SE.

That's the last thing we need especially at a cost of $5 billion.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by joe498

Green Line future at risk after 86% cut in provincial funding over next 4 years

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/green-line-future-provincial-funding-1.5338204

I don't think this project ever will get built anymore. The south phase should have just been started while there was $4.5B in confirmed funding.

Had the city started a portion of the line, it would have been politically more challenging to pull funding from. Now with nothing significant started, it's not surprising that this project wasn't viewed as serious and the province delayed the funding further.

For $4.5 billion they could have done the complete south part of the line including a tunnel downtown. The S.E. would have benefited greatly and I think the line would have been successful which would have helped to get funding later for another segment.

[craner]

Originally Posted by accord1999

I think it's time to settle for a $5B Green Line with compromises and value engineering that at least gets substantially to the North and further into the SE.

No no no no no - please don't build a half-assed line that runs down the middle of a street.

Originally Posted by Corndogger

For $4.5 billion they could have done the complete south part of the line including a tunnel downtown. The S.E. would have benefited greatly and I think the line would have been successful which would have helped to get funding later for another segment.

Yes. This.
If we have to wait to get it right - lets wait.

[accord1999]

How could they build a complete SE line with a tunnel through downtown for $4.5B if right now, they can't build to Shepard with a tunnel through downtown for $4.9B?

Or are you saying to cut the river crossing and everything north of it?

Originally Posted by craner

If we have to wait to get it right - lets wait.

The question is when (if) Calgary can afford to build the rest of it. Don't forget, opening Stage 1 adds to the funding problems of Calgary since it'll require money to operate. For the next 25-30 years, the Green Line will be tying up $52M/year for capital costs, $23.7M/year for financing costs (and even more if Alberta sticks to their slow pay of promised funding) and $40M/year for Stage 1 operating costs.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by accord1999

How could they build a complete SE line with a tunnel through downtown for $4.5B if right now, they can't build to Shepard with a tunnel through downtown for $4.9B?

Or are you saying to cut the river crossing and everything north of it?

That's exactly what I'm saying. I don't see the benefit of spending that much money to go just to 16th Avenue. Going all to the hospital in the south has much better potential for new transit ridership. The deep S.E. is growing like crazy and is transit deprived as far as I can tell.

The question is when (if) Calgary can afford to build the rest of it. Don't forget, opening Stage 1 adds to the funding problems of Calgary since it'll require money to operate. For the next 25-30 years, the Green Line will be tying up $52M/year for capital costs, $23.7M/year for financing costs (and even more if Alberta sticks to their slow pay of promised funding) and $40M/year for Stage 1 operating costs.

If the feds want to put such a huge emphasis on transit they should be funding a lot more than 1/3 of the cost. Cities shouldn't have to fund anywhere near 1/3 for mega projects like this one.

[milomilo]

Just cutting the 1.6km north of downtown is hardly going to save enough to get the line all the way to the hospital, and will make building that section in the future more complicated/expensive.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

If the feds want to put such a huge emphasis on transit they should be funding a lot more than 1/3 of the cost. Cities shouldn't have to fund anywhere near 1/3 for mega projects like this one.

I'd be ok with this, it makes economic sense for the federal government to borrow money to fund transit. The population will have to become more comfortable with deficits though and realise they don't really matter before it becomes politically acceptable.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Just cutting the 1.6km north of downtown is hardly going to save enough to get the line all the way to the hospital, and will make building that section in the future more complicated/expensive.

I thought the cost of going across the river was quite high. Extending to the line to Seton should be relatively cheap.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I'd be ok with this, it makes economic sense for the federal government to borrow money to fund transit. The population will have to become more comfortable with deficits though and realise they don't really matter before it becomes politically acceptable.

If they get away with increasing the carbon tax there should be plenty of money for such projects. Even without the carbon tax they should still pay for the majority of such projects. I think most people would be okay with such debt as infrastructure debt is seldom a bad investment. It's also more or less a once in a lifetime investment--probably even more.

[Corndogger]

I think we're getting really close to saying "RIP Green Line."

Bill 20 allows UCP cabinet to kill Green Line funding with 90-day notice

Meghan Potkins, Calgary Herald
Updated: October 30, 2019

New proposed legislation from the Alberta government will allow the UCP cabinet to terminate $1.53 billion in Green Line funding “without cause” with just 90 days’ notice to the City of Calgary.

The provisions outlined in Bill 20 tabled Monday by Finance Minister Travis Toews make significant changes to existing funding agreements for LRT projects in both Calgary and Edmonton.

Bill 20 would require that any material change to the Green Line project be approved by the minister of transportation before the city could proceed.

The Alberta government would also have the option to terminate funding “without cause” and with only a requirement of 90 days’ notice to the city.

The proposed changes have sent shockwaves through city hall and city staff are scrambling to interpret the implications of the new legislation.

Green Line advocates say they were surprised by the language in the new bill, especially the provision allowing the government to terminate funding without cause.

“They can change their mind on a whim and that funding disappears overnight — that’s a huge concern with trying to move Green Line forward,” said Jeff Binks, with the advocacy group LRT on the Green.

Binks said the new bill essentially transfers final decision-making power to the provincial government. He said the changes throw efforts currently underway to revise the Green Line route through the downtown into question because regardless of what project staff or city councillors decide is best, the decision now lies with the minister in Edmonton.

It is worth noting, however, that the previous NDP government also required that material changes to the Green Line be approved by the provincial and federal governments, according to the Green Line master agreement signed by the city and the deputy minister of transportation last January, a copy of which has been obtained by Postmedia.

Binks said that many Calgarians who voted for the UCP had faith that the government would be true to their word in supporting the Green Line.

“It’s surprising to us because the messaging from the provincial government has been that they are fully behind Green Line construction and they want to see this project move ahead, however, their actions suggest otherwise,” Binks said.

“If they’re truly committed to this project, why does this language need to exist at all?”

Bills 20 and 21 include a number of changes that were part of last week’s provincial budget that included drastic reductions in Green Line funding over the next four years.

More to come…

Source: https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new...ll-green-line-funding-with-90-day-notice

[lucx]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

I thought the cost of going across the river was quite high. Extending to the line to Seton should be relatively cheap.

Tunneling under the river in a future phase was high compared to tunneling it all in a single phase (hundreds of millions more to restart and connect the tunnels). This is why they wanted to get the whole tunnel built in Phase 1. If they're going over the river, there may be no cost advantage or urgency to building it now. This would allow them to divert the funds from the river crossing and underground 16 Ave station to get to at lease Mckenzie Towne (assuming the project is not cancelled).

The early estimates were $700 million to get from 7th ave to 16 ave. This would probably get to to at lease Mahogany.

[joe498]

I don't think it will happen. This council definitely will never get construction started.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new...ll-green-line-funding-with-90-day-notice

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by Allandale25

I'm not from Alberta and haven't been following the project closely. Any further details/summary on how the City messed this up? Did they under estimate the tunnel cost? Didn't staff tell them their costs were Class 5 and did they use the Class 5 cost to get the estimate?

I don’t know what class estimate was done originally. But since you asked me I’ll give you my narrative on how the project went wrong. The Green Line is a departure from the construction philosophy of the previous lines which were built one line at a time, mostly at grade and integrated into the existing 8th Ave free fare zone tracks of the original south line. The Green Line is really 2 lines, the SE line and the NC line. Either one or the other line could be built and tied into 8th Ave at comparatively low cost. But not both lines as 8th Ave will not handle the increased traffic of two lines. Now city politics comes in, which line to build? Both areas are deserving. Some big thinking bright light at City Hall says let’s build both lines, using what I suspect was the preliminary low cost budgets of each line and voila a $4.5 (now $4.9) billion green line is born. City Hall starts a full court press on the Federal and Provincial governments for their 1/3 each of the $4.5 billion with the project being trumpeted as a 46 km LRT. But as we can’t accommodate two new lines into the existing system the bright lights come on again and envision an entirely new system, with different cars and different alignment and an extensive tunnel through downtown, under the river and up center street meeting Calgarians “expectations” but at unknown cost ($8 billion??). With Federal money promised by both Conservatives and Liberals during pre-2015 election and provincial money in the works the bright lights announce the Green Line is a go but greatly shortened to 20km as the tunnel system is taking up a huge amount of the $4.5 billion. Not to worry say the bright lights we are building the hard parts first and then when more money (it’s always more money with Nenshi and crew) comes available after stage 1 is completed construction will just continue on.

Everything started to fall apart last fall when the city construction department could not deliver a tunnel cost estimate and design within the budget. So the City says let’s go ahead with the SE section while they do a major route redesign of the downtown tunnel section but no one knows what that will end up as. Now provincial funding is being delayed so project is a total CF. At this point the only viable option is to build the SE line and tie it into 8th ave or terminate at a crossover station, but that would be a politically suicidal pill to swallow for this City council.

[ClaytonA]

Keating is implying this is a $3 billion funding envelop now for phase 1/1a/1b/whatever;

... looking forward to our first meeting on November 15.

As Chair, along with Vice Chair Davison and Councillors Sutherland, Gondek, Carra, and Farrell, ... It’s absolutely been frustrating to me , as I’m sure it has to many of you, that it took so long for promised funding from the other orders of government to be delivered. I will be talking with our partners at the federal government to see if the funding agreement can be revised somewhat. We can work to move forward on Phase 1 with the more than $3 billion between the City and the Federal government and turn our attention to Phase 2 when the province decides to come on board with its financial contribution. ...

https://www.shanekeating.ca/2019/10/30/of-course-im-all-in-on-the-green-line/

That funding took so long to come from the province and feds [paraphasing] will be laid at the feet of administration and council for not getting this over the finish line. Once the alignment was approved in TT2017-0534, it was what, two weeks to the NDP press conference, and seven months until the master agreement was signed? June 26, 2017 to Jan 31, 2018. All while administration and council continued altering the vertical and horizontal alignment - which still is on-going, senior leadership turnover, a botched hiring process ran its course, and City funds were committed to a pro hockey arena, convention centre expansion, Airport Trail, west ring road connections, and business tax cuts.

One could argue that this project has gone sideways ever since Mac Logan resigned Dec 2017.

[ClaytonA]

Originally Posted by jawagord

...

Much more accurate (without hearsay and links to council docs/decisions) on Shane Keating's blog;

https://www.shanekeating.ca/2019/09/20/a-somewhat-brief-history-of-the-green-line/

Though he cannot resist spinning the BRT to LRT numbers.

[ClaytonA]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

If they get away with increasing the carbon tax there should be plenty of money for such projects. Even without the carbon tax they should still pay for the majority of such projects. I think most people would be okay with such debt as infrastructure debt is seldom a bad investment. It's also more or less a once in a lifetime investment--probably even more.

Despite the Alberta political narrative, the federal carbon tax is different than the NDP's in that it's rebated straight back to citizens bypassing the provinces from the federal government. The NDP plan only rebated a portion back and planned to spend the remaining portion on things like small business tax cuts, LRT, rural Alberta, etc. https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politic...most-controversial-tax-has-been-spent-on

Municipally people voted in the Davisons, Maglioccas, Farkas, Chus, etc. that would rather lower your, or at least business, taxes and there are municipal debt limits unlike at higher levels of government. Provincially, Albertan's would rather see smaller government and lower corporate tax rates for big (only 16% foreign) oil companies than debt. Federally no one, including the federal Conservatives when they were in power, has to care about Alberta because the Conservatives have a lock given identity politics (people in Alberta vote against their own self-interest).

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by jawagord

I don’t know what class estimate was done originally. But since you asked me I’ll give you my narrative on how the project went wrong. The Green Line is a departure from the construction philosophy of the previous lines which were built one line at a time, mostly at grade and integrated into the existing 8th Ave free fare zone tracks of the original south line. The Green Line is really 2 lines, the SE line and the NC line. Either one or the other line could be built and tied into 8th Ave at comparatively low cost. But not both lines as 8th Ave will not handle the increased traffic of two lines. Now city politics comes in, which line to build? Both areas are deserving. Some big thinking bright light at City Hall says let’s build both lines, using what I suspect was the preliminary low cost budgets of each line and voila a $4.5 (now $4.9) billion green line is born. City Hall starts a full court press on the Federal and Provincial governments for their 1/3 each of the $4.5 billion with the project being trumpeted as a 46 km LRT. But as we can’t accommodate two new lines into the existing system the bright lights come on again and envision an entirely new system, with different cars and different alignment and an extensive tunnel through downtown, under the river and up center street meeting Calgarians “expectations” but at unknown cost ($8 billion??). With Federal money promised by both Conservatives and Liberals during pre-2015 election and provincial money in the works the bright lights announce the Green Line is a go but greatly shortened to 20km as the tunnel system is taking up a huge amount of the $4.5 billion. Not to worry say the bright lights we are building the hard parts first and then when more money (it’s always more money with Nenshi and crew) comes available after stage 1 is completed construction will just continue on.

Everything started to fall apart last fall when the city construction department could not deliver a tunnel cost estimate and design within the budget. So the City says let’s go ahead with the SE section while they do a major route redesign of the downtown tunnel section but no one knows what that will end up as. Now provincial funding is being delayed so project is a total CF. At this point the only viable option is to build the SE line and tie it into 8th ave or terminate at a crossover station, but that would be a politically suicidal pill to swallow for this City council.

Most of this is true, except that 7th is maxed out. Using it is not an option, so we'd have to build the 8th ave tunnel anyway, meaning the cost vs building a new more useful N-S tunnel is a wash, and you don't increase any capacity on the red line.

The Green Line route and tunnel location is good, no significantly different option makes much sense when you look at it properly. This was obvious years ago, but they decided a budget without knowing the cost. If they'd known the cost, we could have built a SEBRT by now and have time to properly figure out how to give the north a train.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by ClaytonA

Keating is implying this is a $3 billion funding envelop now for phase 1/1a/1b/whatever;

Which would only be enough for the SE segment and partially into downtown; ridership would probably be in the 40K range.

One could argue that this project has gone sideways ever since Mac Logan resigned Dec 2017.

I would argue that it has gone badly ever since it was initially approved in 2015. Logan wasn't able to keep the cost down and was still low-balling the costs even in Feb 2017:

Last fall, Logan told councillors construction of the entire line could cost $5.8 billion to $6.7 billion. He now says the price range will be lower but declined to offer an updated estimate until administration delivers its report in June.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new...ch-transit-starved-communities-for-years

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by ClaytonA

Much more accurate (without hearsay and links to council docs/decisions) on Shane Keating's blog;

https://www.shanekeating.ca/2019/09/20/a-somewhat-brief-history-of-the-green-line/

Though he cannot resist spinning the BRT to LRT numbers.

These paragraphs are all anyone really needs to read. I think Keating still doesn’t get the need to build a workable system with the budget we have now as we don’t have money and won’t get future money for all the wonderful changes that came from “consultations with Calgarians”.

After a thorough consultation with Calgarians – both businesses and residents alike, Council approved the recommendation for a fully tunneled route through the downtown core in late 2016. As a result of a shift in what the project was going to look like, compared to when it was first developed (fully at-grade, initial northern alignment along Nose Creek, then along Centre Street), the project’s total cost had also shifted and Council had to discuss stages of the Green Line.

Consultation continued, transit oriented development and station location talks progressed and Stage 1 construction, including a tunnel from 16th Ave North through downtown and the Beltline, was approved at a total cost of $4.65 billion, as estimated by Administration, in June 2017. The tunnel portion itself had an estimated price tag of $1.95 billion.

[MalcolmTucker]

But the system isn't workable without the tunnel or a somewhat comparably expensive grade separation.