Green Line LRT - $4.6 Billion Project

[MalcolmTucker]

Tunnels are not created equal and geology certainly isn’t. And that was 15 years ago. Since then there has been failed (from contractors perspectives) p3s with fixed price that means companies are less likely to bid in close to their price of delivery.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Tunnels are not created equal and geology certainly isn’t. And that was 15 years ago. Since then there has been failed (from contractors perspectives) p3s with fixed price that means companies are less likely to bid in close to their price of delivery.

Further to this, you aren't looking at a large number of consortiums that would be interested in this job, reducing competition leading to a higher price.

[joe498]

Calgary Green Line funding pushed back; cities take Alberta budget hit

https://livewirecalgary.com/2019/10/24/c...hed-back-cities-take-alberta-budget-hit/

[milomilo]

Well it's not like there is anything to build anyway.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Well it's not like there is anything to build anyway.

Yeah. In any case, this isn't really a problem, even if there was some bills coming due.

[milomilo]

Are we due any updates on this? Or are we just down to one update per year now, to inform us it is going to take longer, cost more, and do less?

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Well it's not like there is anything to build anyway.

Keating agrees with you; though Nenshi seems concerned:

https://twitter.com/CBCScott/status/1187516893676085248

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Are we due any updates on this? Or are we just down to one update per year now, to inform us it is going to take longer, cost more, and do less?

There's another update in December; from the September update the most interesting thing will probably be the City (figuratively) laughing in Gondek's face about the request to:

Provide update on the feasibility review of including North Pointe to 16th Ave in Stage 1

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=107025

I think January will be important one, when they present the options for downtown. Unless the City pulls out a miracle, there's probably going to be fireworks from unhappy stakeholders.

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=107029

[Allandale25]

Toronto Star article on the topic.

https://www.thestar.com/calgary/2019/10/...es-theyve-got-some-explaining-to-do.html

Kind of reminds me of some of the changes to Toronto's LRT network over the years.

Transit City's (the LRT network) budget was reduced by the Province, Mayor Rob Ford and his brother Doug pushed hard for subways, which contributed to two lines switching from LRT to subway. With Sheppard for example going to a subway, it made the project more expensive. Ford's recent push to tunnel the Eglinton West LRT also increases the cost.

[joe498]

"Coun. Shane Keating, one of the first to champion a Green Line LRT linking far-flung neighbourhoods in north and south Calgary, says he may no longer be able to support the $4.9-billion mega-project after the province reneged on the terms a four-year funding agreement."

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new...considers-support-in-wake-of-budget-cuts

[MalcolmTucker]

JFC Shane. The money is still coming. Sure it would be nicer to get it up front but when the project was first funded it was over 20 years. Now it is ten years but when is shifted.

[milomilo]

I'm more concerned with the funding cut for new rail vehicles.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I'm more concerned with the funding cut for new rail vehicles.

We all should be.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

JFC Shane. The money is still coming. Sure it would be nicer to get it up front but when the project was first funded it was over 20 years. Now it is ten years but when is shifted.

Nenshi and Co are trying to use this as political cover for their colossal screw-up in the Green Line design/cost. In Nenshi’s world the problem is not the green line design it’s the lack of government funding. $4.5 billion is not enough to realize the “people’s expectations”, give us more.

As we went out to the community to talk about people’s expectations of the Green Line, and as we did more detailed engineering work, we were able to make the existing budget work for a line from Crescent Heights to Shepard, including the hardest part through the downtown.

But we need to finish the whole line. People in north central Calgary need better transit with higher capacity, while those in neighbourhoods like McKenzie Towne have simply been waiting far too long.

And that’s why we’re looking to the federal parties to reaffirm their commitment to public transit in Calgary.

In this election, the City of Calgary is lobbying the federal parties through YYC Matters, and we’re asking for long-term transit funding. This will help every corner of our city, but, of course, our major focus is on the Green Line. We need a steady stream of funding to build out the system, and being able to count on this from the federal government is critical to realizing the vision Calgarians have for this project.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contribu...sh-them-to-commit-to-public-transit.html

[Allandale25]

https://www.660citynews.com/2019/10/28/c...ss-provincial-budget-green-line-project/

[Allandale25]

Originally Posted by jawagord

Nenshi and Co are trying to use this as political cover for their colossal screw-up in the Green Line design/cost. In Nenshi’s world the problem is not the green line design it’s the lack of government funding. $4.5 billion is not enough to realize the “people’s expectations”, give us more.

As we went out to the community to talk about people’s expectations of the Green Line, and as we did more detailed engineering work, we were able to make the existing budget work for a line from Crescent Heights to Shepard, including the hardest part through the downtown.

But we need to finish the whole line. People in north central Calgary need better transit with higher capacity, while those in neighbourhoods like McKenzie Towne have simply been waiting far too long.

And that’s why we’re looking to the federal parties to reaffirm their commitment to public transit in Calgary.

In this election, the City of Calgary is lobbying the federal parties through YYC Matters, and we’re asking for long-term transit funding. This will help every corner of our city, but, of course, our major focus is on the Green Line. We need a steady stream of funding to build out the system, and being able to count on this from the federal government is critical to realizing the vision Calgarians have for this project.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contribu...sh-them-to-commit-to-public-transit.html

I'm not from Alberta and haven't been following the project closely. Any further details/summary on how the City messed this up? Did they under estimate the tunnel cost? Didn't staff tell them their costs were Class 5 and did they use the Class 5 cost to get the estimate?

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Allandale25

I'm not from Alberta and haven't been following the project closely. Any further details/summary on how the City messed this up?

There's been hand-waving about how the tunnel greatly increased costs but going back to earlier documents, the portion through Downtown was always known to be expensive.

I think it may just be a case where the planners and politicians were optimistic (to the point of delusion) in order to get this project approved and funded to start so they could skip BRT. This was what was being sold back in late 2015. Class 5 and 3 estimates were noted but that $4.x figure that was being used in public messaging all the way until the line was truncated in 2017:





If compared with the costs now; everything has gone up in price. To get to the original end points at North Pointe and Seton, you're easily looking at another $3.5B.

[Allandale25]

^ Thanks. What did you think of the CPC's view on what's happened? They released this during the campaign which you probably saw:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PA...gbp2zJg2Zl7uXwruGRIdhdd684I67eDeT71r/pub

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Allandale25

^ Thanks. What did you think of the CPC's view on what's happened? They released this during the campaign which you probably saw:

It's probably easy to assign blame after the fact... but I do think their view is valid. It's likely now that even if somehow the City builds Stage 1 on-budget, there won't be money from the Province to reach North Pointe and Seton for a long time, making Stage 1 a poor investment given the capital and operating costs.

I think it's time to settle for a $5B Green Line with compromises and value engineering that at least gets substantially to the North and further into the SE.

[joe498]

Green Line future at risk after 86% cut in provincial funding over next 4 years

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/green-line-future-provincial-funding-1.5338204

I don't think this project ever will get built anymore. The south phase should have just been started while there was $4.5B in confirmed funding.

Had the city started a portion of the line, it would have been politically more challenging to pull funding from. Now with nothing significant started, it's not surprising that this project wasn't viewed as serious and the province delayed the funding further.