Official Fredericton, NB projects thread

[Taeolas]

Eyeballing the Liam circle on Bishop it does look like it is mostly ready for 2 lane traffic. The Bishop drive stretches seem to be wide enough, they just need to add lane markers to officially make it 2 lane on either side. As for the circle itself, they can probably remove the skirt around the core of the roundabout and it should work. (with the usual limitation that traffic in both lanes of the circle need to yield to trucks)

The real bottleneck for Bishop IMO is the connection to Smythe. The lights seem rather awkward there. I wonder if they should add a second circle there to try and smooth the traffic through that intersection.

[DyAm00394]

A member of the Retail Talk & Share NB group on Facebook, posted some info about the former Sears at Regent Mall. (This person works at a store inside the mall, and apparently all the stores in the mall got memos of what's going on).

Some development news for the sears in the regent mall, phase 1 is complete and they’re going to start demolishing one outside wall ( that’s facing the Kent building ) and the 3 big towers where the former entrances for sears use to be. They’re going to be building a new loading dock on the opposite side. There’s going to be one large store occupying one entire half of the building and 2 mediums sized stores occupying the other half. There’s going to be a new hallway and a new entrance at the very back of sears! The new stores are set to open in 2020 ( All the stores got memos on what’s happening )

Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1690502684515770/permalink/2475649539334410/


In the comment section of that post, there is chatter/rumors of Dollarama, The Brick, and Urban Planet. The person that posted the above information said that they also heard a rumour of possibly a call center might be going here as well (hopefully that's not true). (There is also some speculation that Pseudio is supposed to move to the mall, and into one of the two medium sized stores going in the former Sears. However, there are rumours that it's actually going to occupy the former Dynamite, that recently closed).

I'm interested to see what will be officially announced.

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Eyeballing the Liam circle on Bishop it does look like it is mostly ready for 2 lane traffic. The Bishop drive stretches seem to be wide enough, they just need to add lane markers to officially make it 2 lane on either side. As for the circle itself, they can probably remove the skirt around the core of the roundabout and it should work. (with the usual limitation that traffic in both lanes of the circle need to yield to trucks)

The real bottleneck for Bishop IMO is the connection to Smythe. The lights seem rather awkward there. I wonder if they should add a second circle there to try and smooth the traffic through that intersection.

Smythe and Bishop won't seem as awkward when those lanes are all built. They can't just take out the central apron of the roundabout, the apron is there to provide access when a lane or two are blocked by an accident.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Franco401

Smythe and Bishop won't seem as awkward when those lanes are all built. They can't just take out the central apron of the roundabout, the apron is there to provide access when a lane or two are blocked by an accident.

I thought the apron was for trucks, to give them extra space in an otherwise tight corner? So taking it out (or rather flattening it out to be an extra lane) with a setup like the Route-8 roundabout would basically leave it the same way. (Trucks would use both lanes of the roundabout when in it and all traffic would yield to trucks)

I'm having a hard time imagining how that apron as it is now would be useful in an accident situation; either the road would be blocked beyond the roundabout anyway, or there should be room for traffic to clear out the other side of the roundabout letting emergency vehicles go the other direction if needed (if the accident was on the roundabout itself).

As for Smythe and Bishop, Bishop is already 4 lanes each way at the intersection (Bishop is twinned from Electric Motor Service to Regent mall basically) so how would finishing twinning Bishop help that intersection?

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

A member of the Retail Talk & Share NB group on Facebook, posted some info about the former Sears at Regent Mall. (This person works at a store inside the mall, and apparently all the stores in the mall got memos of what's going on).


Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1690502684515770/permalink/2475649539334410/


In the comment section of that post, there is chatter/rumors of Dollarama, The Brick, and Urban Planet. The person that posted the above information said that they also heard a rumour of possibly a call center might be going here as well (hopefully that's not true). (There is also some speculation that Pseudio is supposed to move to the mall, and into one of the two medium sized stores going in the former Sears. However, there are rumours that it's actually going to occupy the former Dynamite, that recently closed).

I'm interested to see what will be officially announced.

Call center in the mall? hmmm. There was a failing mall in Riverview that converted to pretty much all call center space. But that was because retail just didn't fly there. Not the same situation with the Regent Mall. But who knows what they'll do with the Sears space. We'll find out soon enough.

[Taeolas]

I really doubt that Regent will put a call centre in the Sears space. Dividing it up for 2-3 other stores is much more likely.

If you think of it, we are a bit tight for prime retail space in the city at the moment. Regent, Corbett and Uptown are pretty much full (aside from the Sears space). So any new major retail would need to break ground (or go to 2NC)

So I'm pretty sure that Sears will remain retail space.

Thoguht experiment time. IHOP and Dennys are moving into the Maritimes finally. I suspect Freddy will eventually land on their radar. Where would they go? I'm pretty sure they'll want a location close to the highways, so anywhere on the northside is out. As I said, Corbett, Regent and Uptown are all full, especially for those types of restaurants.

If they were to come in, there are a few locations I can think of.

* One major spot that might be ideal for them would be the old Daily Gleaner building on Smythe and Prospect. It's close to Route 8 and easy on/off now (for the most part). But the old building would have to be taken down and the land probably environmentally cleaned.

* Another spot might be Bishop and Hanwell. That area has been marked as the city as the edge of a commercial node. It's close to the Route 8 exits and close to a lot of residential and the main commercial heart.

* Finally, TCH and Hanwell might be another possibility. It's outside the city, but it is on the main highway and in an industrial area with lots of room for growth. It's also close to the Kingswood complex so it could be another meal option for guests there. (akin to the IHOP/Casino relationship in Moncton)

Any other thoughts on where that type of restaurant might set up here?

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I really doubt that Regent will put a call centre in the Sears space. Dividing it up for 2-3 other stores is much more likely.

If you think of it, we are a bit tight for prime retail space in the city at the moment. Regent, Corbett and Uptown are pretty much full (aside from the Sears space). So any new major retail would need to break ground (or go to 2NC)

So I'm pretty sure that Sears will remain retail space.

Thoguht experiment time. IHOP and Dennys are moving into the Maritimes finally. I suspect Freddy will eventually land on their radar. Where would they go? I'm pretty sure they'll want a location close to the highways, so anywhere on the northside is out. As I said, Corbett, Regent and Uptown are all full, especially for those types of restaurants.

If they were to come in, there are a few locations I can think of.

* One major spot that might be ideal for them would be the old Daily Gleaner building on Smythe and Prospect. It's close to Route 8 and easy on/off now (for the most part). But the old building would have to be taken down and the land probably environmentally cleaned.

* Another spot might be Bishop and Hanwell. That area has been marked as the city as the edge of a commercial node. It's close to the Route 8 exits and close to a lot of residential and the main commercial heart.

* Finally, TCH and Hanwell might be another possibility. It's outside the city, but it is on the main highway and in an industrial area with lots of room for growth. It's also close to the Kingswood complex so it could be another meal option for guests there. (akin to the IHOP/Casino relationship in Moncton)

Any other thoughts on where that type of restaurant might set up here?

Agree 100%. No way I'd convert Sears space to a call center.
IHOP or Denny's - I think somewhere on Prospect would make sense?

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I really doubt that Regent will put a call centre in the Sears space. Dividing it up for 2-3 other stores is much more likely.

If you think of it, we are a bit tight for prime retail space in the city at the moment. Regent, Corbett and Uptown are pretty much full (aside from the Sears space). So any new major retail would need to break ground (or go to 2NC)

So I'm pretty sure that Sears will remain retail space.

Thoguht experiment time. IHOP and Dennys are moving into the Maritimes finally. I suspect Freddy will eventually land on their radar. Where would they go? I'm pretty sure they'll want a location close to the highways, so anywhere on the northside is out. As I said, Corbett, Regent and Uptown are all full, especially for those types of restaurants.

If they were to come in, there are a few locations I can think of.

* One major spot that might be ideal for them would be the old Daily Gleaner building on Smythe and Prospect. It's close to Route 8 and easy on/off now (for the most part). But the old building would have to be taken down and the land probably environmentally cleaned.

* Another spot might be Bishop and Hanwell. That area has been marked as the city as the edge of a commercial node. It's close to the Route 8 exits and close to a lot of residential and the main commercial heart.

* Finally, TCH and Hanwell might be another possibility. It's outside the city, but it is on the main highway and in an industrial area with lots of room for growth. It's also close to the Kingswood complex so it could be another meal option for guests there. (akin to the IHOP/Casino relationship in Moncton)

Any other thoughts on where that type of restaurant might set up here?

Agreed re the call centre. I doubt that is in the plans for that space. The Gleaner reports today that the Regent Mall General Manager confirms that they do indeed have 3 tenants to fill the 85000 sq ft Sears space. That Phase II of the renovation will begin within the next 2 weeks. The space will be handed over to the new but yet unnamed stores in March of April of next year to do their final fit ups. The stores will open next summer or early fall. The GM also confirms a common corridor down the middle with 2 stores on one side and a single store on the opposite.

I for one hope that one of the stores is not a Dollarama.

[brunes]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

In the comment section of that post, there is chatter/rumors of Dollarama, The Brick, and Urban Planet.

Dear God, hasn't this city reached peak Dollarama yet? I think Fredericton has more Dollaramas than Tim Hortons, and that's saying something.

[brunes]

Originally Posted by OliverD

It might not be financially feasible to build there though, due to the flooding issues.

When building new, it's really not expensive anymore with current technology to have a building at almost an arbitrary height. My house in fact is built entirely on technopost steel piles that go 25' deep, vs a traditional foundation. It was not that expensive at all to raise up above floodline. Multiple high end homes being built along the river there have done it using a variety of methods. It's not a barrier at all

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by brunes

When building new, it's really not expensive anymore with current technology to have a building at almost an arbitrary height. My house in fact is built entirely on technopost steel piles that go 25' deep, vs a traditional foundation. It was not that expensive at all to raise up above floodline. Multiple high end homes being built along the river there have done it using a variety of methods. It's not a barrier at all

Even still, you would need to bring in a lot of fill to build the land up. I think you could probably make the numbers work for some sort of mixed use development though.

But there's also the cost of cleaning the land up so I'm not sure that we'll see anything there other than city-owned park space.

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by brunes

Dear God, hasn't this city reached peak Dollarama yet? I think Fredericton has more Dollaramas than Tim Hortons, and that's saying something.

If this is true, then apparently not.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Eyeballing the Liam circle on Bishop it does look like it is mostly ready for 2 lane traffic. The Bishop drive stretches seem to be wide enough, they just need to add lane markers to officially make it 2 lane on either side. As for the circle itself, they can probably remove the skirt around the core of the roundabout and it should work. (with the usual limitation that traffic in both lanes of the circle need to yield to trucks)

But then you have four lanes on entering/exiting on Bishop, but just two on Lian and Avonlea, so the roundabout would have to be completely reconfigured to work more like the new one being built at the bottom of Smythe.

Not much point in making Bishop four lanes anyways. There's more value in just adding a centre turning lane where appropriate.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fredericton-bishop-drive-park-1.5229170

The walking trail in the new uptown park will be starting shortly. I did not realize how ambitious this project would be. Will be great for those living in that area, and I hope they add some parking at the other entrances.

Now they just need a school in that area, though I wouldn't be holding my breath since they made the (pretty poor) decision to build one in Hanwell.

[jonny golden]

Will Fredericton ever pass Saint John in population?

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by jonny golden

Will Fredericton ever pass Saint John in population?

It is possible. I think SJ still has the edge and it is starting to rebound from a rough decade so it might be enough to keep SJ ahead, but at the moment Freddy is growing faster and its economy seems to be more stable with a boon on the horizon.

SJ is finally starting to grow again in recent years and economically it does seem to be coming back, but it's slower and the city still has a number of issues that need to be resolved to truly recover. (Freddy has issues as well, but those issues seem to be not as bad and being handled more or less properly).

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

It is possible. I think SJ still has the edge and it is starting to rebound from a rough decade so it might be enough to keep SJ ahead, but at the moment Freddy is growing faster and its economy seems to be more stable with a boon on the horizon.

SJ is finally starting to grow again in recent years and economically it does seem to be coming back, but it's slower and the city still has a number of issues that need to be resolved to truly recover. (Freddy has issues as well, but those issues seem to be not as bad and being handled more or less properly).

I noticed in one of the reports that Saint John had actually lost population at one point.

[Fischbob]

Here's a look at how the 3 metros have grown since 2006:


Data Source

Overall during this period, greater Moncton grew by around 22k, Fredericton by 15.5k and Saint John by just under 4k with a few years of decline between 2011 and 2015. In percentage terms, Moncton and Fredericton had very similar growth rates (16.9% and 16.7% respectively) from 2006-2018, with Saint John coming in with a rate of 3.1%.

Averaging the rates above to annual growth rates, I extrapolated the CMA/CA populations out over the next 20 years:



So if we assume the same long-term growth rates that we've seen over the past dozen years, greater Fredericton passes greater Saint John around 2035.

Of course, a lot can change in that amount of time

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

Here's a look at how the 3 metros have grown since 2006:


Data Source

Overall during this period, greater Moncton grew by around 22k, Fredericton by 15.5k and Saint John by just under 4k with a few years of decline between 2011 and 2015. In percentage terms, Moncton and Fredericton had very similar growth rates (16.9% and 16.7% respectively) from 2006-2018, with Saint John coming in with a rate of 3.1%.

Averaging the rates above to annual growth rates, I extrapolated the CMA/CA populations out over the next 20 years:



So if we assume the same long-term growth rates that we've seen over the past dozen years, greater Fredericton passes greater Saint John around 2035.

Of course, a lot can change in that amount of time

I'm not sure where to find the info again but I'm pretty sure I read that the cities (not CMAs) populations are even closer. I believe Fredericton is only about 9000 less than Saint John now. Again, just the cities population.

[DyAm00394]

Originally Posted by jonny golden

Will Fredericton ever pass Saint John in population?

I agree with what Taeolas said. I also believe it could be possible if there is no changes in the growth pattern in SJ. However though, Saint John is starting to recover but there is still some issues to resolve. Recently the government released a report titled "Sustaining Saint John" and promises to help the city through it's financial crisis.


Link to the report: https://pub-saintjohn.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=1043



Also, here's an audio interview you can listen to: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...n-around-saint-john-s-finances-1.5207959


An interesting thing Jeff Carr, (New Brunswick's minister of Environment and Local Government) said in this interview is that he believes if the action items in the report are followed and fulfilled, he believes that the city of Saint John would not only succeed, but he also believes that the city of Saint John could once again be probably one of the riches/wealthiest cities in Atlantic Canada.


And here is some articles as well,
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...n-property-boundaries-regional-1.5207076
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...orm-municipal-local-government-1.5209259


Overall in terms of "if Fredericton could surpass SJ in population", I think it will be a "wait and see over time", kind of thing.