Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Growth that consistently outpace regional population growth and economic growth would be pretty remarkable if sustained. Implying either growth in marketshare for VIA or the creation of new markets. Unlikely to see 5% sustained in my opinion for that long. Especially since VIA is fundamentally capped by how much it can increase service while operating on CN's tracks.
|
And your right that there definitely is a limit on growth while the network infrastructure situation remains status quo.
But, that doesn't change the fact that all of sudden, in 2016, ridership suddenly increased, in a pretty substantial way, after decades of stagnation or decline. Why did that happen? What changed? From what I have seen, VIA didn't make any substantial changes. There were tiny upgrades here and there to tracks. There was no new equipment, though I guess many coaches had been renovated. There were some new stations in Belleville, Cobourg and Brockville in the past few years. Maybe the sum of all the small changes is what made the difference? Was the growth only on some routes, or was it network wide? Or is it something totally unrelated to VIA, like people hitting the tipping point of dealing with driving and the cost of parking when they go to Toronto and opting for the train instead?
I bring up all those questions because something obviously happened to change consumer preferences and without knowing exactly why that happened it is hard to know if this is a short term trend, a larger cultural trend, or something that VIA could leverage to get way more growth out of the existing network conditions? It isn't a substitute for modernization, but it is fascinating in its own way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
You seem to be mixing up numbers. Which is why that growth is not remarkable to you. 4.5 million is the current ridership for the ENTIRE CORRIDOR. That's East (Toronto-Quebec City) and West (Toronto-Windsor). 9.9 million on just HFR, which doesn't encompass all of Corridor East (since Lakeshore would now be a separate service) is remarkable. This would imply that VIA's total Corridor ridership would be 12-13 million with HFR. I don't get how someone can say that's not a "game changer".
|
Just for reference, here is the infographic that I saw that quoted the 9.9 million figure.
The way I interpret that is that it is 9.9 million for all service in the corridor. If there a revised infographic that specifies 9.9 for HFR only, fair enough, and yes that would make ridership gains higher. That would also lead to the question of how much of that ridership is simply going to be passengers shifting over from existing routes, to new services on the HFR line.
This is why talking about numbers is hugely challenging. There is no breakdown of numbers beyond these lump sump figures. Based on numbers I have access to at this moment in time I do take a slightly skeptical view of how much ridership will actually increase (especially if there is no Montreal-Quebec north shore segment). But better data could prove me wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
I get your desire to have a novel take on a discussion board. But HFR is more than some "proof of concept". Nobody spends $4+ billion on a proof of concept.
This is the major investment that would happen for intercity rail in Canada, for our generation. Hopefully, it builds into further investment. Starting with extensions into Southwestern Ontario. And hopefully, it sets an example that allows other major corridors to proceed (Calgary-Edmonton, Vancouver-Kelowna). But those will be a long time out.
|
If the full HFR project gets built then yes I would agree that it becomes something larger than just a proof of concept.
What are the odds that is going to happen though? The situation in Montreal with Mont-Royal tunnel and REM is a total mess and dealing with it properly probably wont be cheap, so that hot mess is putting that segment in jeopardy. We know from the Globe and Mail article that only $91 million is planned for the Ottawa-Montreal segment. Maybe that is enough to double track a good portion of it, which would help reliability, but that isn't going to allow for speeds to increase and knock down travel time to an even marginally newsworthy amount. That kind of investment isn't going to radically change travel on that corridor. It will allow for more trains, but increased frequency isn't a big show piece, and if there is no M-Q segment, will that affect the number of trains that end up running between Ottawa and Montreal?
At this point, the only part of the HFR route that seems likely be built/upgraded soon, and that is going to actually make waves with the public is the Ottawa-Toronto segment. Not just for decreasing travel time between Ottawa and Toronto, but also for bringing service to Peterborough.
That is why I say HFR is a proof of concept. The project that is likely to be built out of the gate is really about showing what happens to ridership between Ottawa and Toronto when you decrease travel times, and increase frequency and reliability, along with what happens when you start serving new markets, like Peterborough.
And yes it is a different take than other people have. But it also isn't just for the sake of being different. Proof of concept is how you gain support. Though the difference in less dramatic, it was the seeing the first section of HSL between Paris and Lyon in action that really got the public on board to continue investing in HSR. In some ways it could benefit additional HFR/HSR investment in the future if it is a smaller, proof of concept project, versus the full scale HFR. Not because the Montreal-Quebec section isn't worthwhile (it is), but for the reason that there is one section with one desired outcome to focus on, and for the public to see and get behind, or even just pay attention to in the first place. Its straightforward and simple and thats often a strength when trying to sell something versus overly complicated messaging. Yes, this is a bit of spin as I could likely come up with reasons why doing the full HFR project is the right choice, if that happened. But if the scale of the project is reduced, why not see it for what it is, and really roll with that?