VIA Rail network developments

[danishh]

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/0...al-quebec-leg-internal-doc/#.XT31wOhKiUm

this is a confusing article given the mixing of HFR/HSR and the current and previous HFR proposals, but it seems the bottom line would still stand - the montreal -quebec leg of hfr has a weak business case.

Ideally they start with Ottawa-Montreal, then build out the Ottawa-Toronto route via Peterborough, and only look at the Montreal-Quebec leg after that.

[Gat-Train]

Some observations from my recent trips on VIA:

Today I took train 80 from London to Toronto, then train 40 Toronto to Ottawa. Both trains were packed—not one empty seat. Train 40 was an express.

A couple weeks ago, I took a train from Ottawa to Montreal Central Station. A full train emptied itself at Dorval.

There's definitely a ton of latent demand for train travel. If HFR ever comes to fruition, I have no doubts they would meet their ridership projection.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

Today I took train 80 from London to Toronto, then train 40 Toronto to Ottawa. Both trains were packed—not one empty seat. Train 40 was an express.

Most of my Ottawa-Toronto trips are full, whether it's Friday night or Tuesday night.

[Truenorth00]

In case anyone hasn't seen it, this new Globe and Mail piece is really good and offers some new tidbits:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...e-via-rails-business-case-for-extending/

[J.OT13]

I think that "conclusion" stating the Montréal-Québec HFR is not warranted is a way for the Feds to avoid the expensive Mount-Royal tunnel expansion. Seems to "convenient".

I'd be fine with starting the project with Toronto-Ottawa-Montréal but would want the system to continually expand, with no construction breaks (think Confederation Line and the original transcontinental railway), until it reaches coast-to-coast-to-coast.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I think that "conclusion" stating the Montréal-Québec HFR is not warranted is a way for the Feds to avoid the expensive Mount-Royal tunnel expansion. Seems to "convenient".

I'd be fine with starting the project with Toronto-Ottawa-Montréal but would want the system to continually expand, with no construction breaks (think Confederation Line and the original transcontinental railway), until it reaches coast-to-coast-to-coast.

The Montreal-Quebec section was a rather political addition but the route is still well used, probably much more so than southwestern Ontario, where service has been cut in recent years.

Nevertheless, we need to get this going even if it is Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto. Somehow, we need to find a way to speed up service between Montreal and Toronto to get the biggest ridership benefit possible. At this point, that route gets the least benefit, which is disappointing given that they are the two biggest cities.

It might be wise to consider an Ottawa by-pass as part of Phase 1. With only 15 trains per day (one less than today with Ottawa and Montreal combined), surely market growth will allow for express Montreal-Toronto trains while still maintaining 15 trains per day into Ottawa. In the long-run, this produces a better overall network rather than forcing all Montreal bound passengers through Ottawa.

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I think that "conclusion" stating the Montréal-Québec HFR is not warranted is a way for the Feds to avoid the expensive Mount-Royal tunnel expansion. Seems to "convenient".

I'd be fine with starting the project with Toronto-Ottawa-Montréal but would want the system to continually expand, with no construction breaks (think Confederation Line and the original transcontinental railway), until it reaches coast-to-coast-to-coast.

I doubt that's the case. Ridership from MTL-QC is quite low. I've been the single passager many times in business class. QC doesn't have strong transit ridership and even with their streetcar, it will not go to any train stations. QC was always planned a phase 2 but political pressure put VIA to include it in the first phase.

There's much rehabilitation needed on the North Shore plus track junctions to be installed.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

The Montreal-Quebec section was a rather political addition but the route is still well used, probably much more so than southwestern Ontario, where service has been cut in recent years.

Nevertheless, we need to get this going even if it is Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto. Somehow, we need to find a way to speed up service between Montreal and Toronto to get the biggest ridership benefit possible. At this point, that route gets the least benefit, which is disappointing given that they are the two biggest cities.

It might be wise to consider an Ottawa by-pass as part of Phase 1. With only 15 trains per day (one less than today with Ottawa and Montreal combined), surely market growth will allow for express Montreal-Toronto trains while still maintaining 15 trains per day into Ottawa. In the long-run, this produces a better overall network rather than forcing all Montreal bound passengers through Ottawa.

The biggest growth in ridership is between Toronto and Ottawa so that should start first not Toronto and Montreal which has lower ridership growth.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

The biggest growth in ridership is between Toronto and Ottawa so that should start first not Toronto and Montreal which has lower ridership growth.

You would think that Montreal-Toronto would have the biggest long-term ridership growth potential if travel times could be significantly reduced to that sweet point of around 4 hours.

I know that Ottawa-Toronto is the busiest route today but we need to look beyond that since the overall market is much smaller. Automatically, Ottawa-Toronto will benefit from HFR.

If HFR is to be successful, Montreal-Toronto has to benefit considerably otherwise how do we get ridership up to 10M? A 15 or 20 minute time saving is not enough to justify spending $4B to $5B.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by d_jeffrey

I doubt that's the case. Ridership from MTL-QC is quite low. I've been the single passager many times in business class. QC doesn't have strong transit ridership and even with their streetcar, it will not go to any train stations. QC was always planned a phase 2 but political pressure put VIA to include it in the first phase.

There's much rehabilitation needed on the North Shore plus track junctions to be installed.

You could also argue that ridership is low because the trip is over 3 hours long by train (and that is if there are no delays, which there often are due to the need to cross the St Lawrence twice over very busy freight bridges). It might be a scenic way to go between the two cities, but it is painfully slow compared to taking a car. And since parking in Quebec is cheap and easy to find, it isn't as though a longer trip is a reasonable trade off.

My suspicion is that the Mont Royal tunnel issue is the biggest reason why they might not pursue a Montreal-Quebec route right away. If passenger rail service, of any kind (outside of REM), is going to be expanded in Montreal, there needs to be a full scale modernization of Montreal's Central Station, the tunnels, and the tracks leading to it (along the lines of what is taking place in Toronto). Could VIA still make it work? Probably. But without a billion dollar investment in the core inner city rail infrastructure in Montreal, it will just be an endless string of compromises to hack together some sort of upgraded rail service.

[Gat-Train]

I really hope they can figure out a way to not have the Ottawa-bound trains from Montreal back up for 15 minutes

[Gat-Train]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

If HFR is to be successful, Montreal-Toronto has to benefit considerably otherwise how do we get ridership up to 10M? A 15 or 20 minute time saving is not enough to justify spending $4B to $5B.

Cost is the biggest enemy for most travellers, not time. More trains and more seats means lower fares and more options for travellers. Get fares on par with Greyhound and Bob's your uncle.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

If HFR is to be successful, Montreal-Toronto has to benefit considerably otherwise how do we get ridership up to 10M? A 15 or 20 minute time saving is not enough to justify spending $4B to $5B.

If you base HFR's success on the benefits it will bring to Montreal-Toronto service and all points in between on the Lakeshore, it will be a failure. And that is fine. This project cant be all things to everyone. Modernizing passenger rail is going to be massively expensive. HFR is step one of many in that process.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

I really hope they can figure out a way to not have the Ottawa-bound trains from Montreal back up for 15 minutes

In theory, the new trains will be able to do they since they'll have cabs on either end. Don't need HFR for that.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

If you base HFR's success on the benefits it will bring to Montreal-Toronto service and all points in between on the Lakeshore, it will be a failure. And that is fine. This project cant be all things to everyone. Modernizing passenger rail is going to be massively expensive. HFR is step one of many in that process.

Ridership counts are going to be a big measure of success. They are counting on massive increases in ridership. HFR's success cannot hang on the Ottawa-Toronto route alone. If we cannot count on more than a 15-20 minute saving on the route between Canada's two largest cities, how do we achieve ridership goals?

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

Cost is the biggest enemy for most travellers, not time. More trains and more seats means lower fares and more options for travellers. Get fares on par with Greyhound and Bob's your uncle.

I wouldn't count on significantly lower fares. We are not going to grow ridership significantly by attracting Greyhound customers who are ultra price sensitive.

We are going to attract passengers from the car and airline markets. This will be more time sensitive. If VIA can compete better with airline times plus travels to and from the airport, VIA will get some former airline riders. If VIA can travel significantly faster than car travel, we will likewise gain some from that market as well.

Also, the efficiencies that you are talking about will be needed to wipe out losses on current VIA service on the affected routes. We cannot be lowering fares substantially without first wiping out losses, and offering a decent return on investment, otherwise we can forget about private investment.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Ridership counts are going to be a big measure of success. They are counting on massive increases in ridership. HFR's success cannot hang on the Ottawa-Toronto route alone. If we cannot count on more than a 15-20 minute saving on the route between Canada's two largest cities, how do we achieve ridership goals?

Yes ridership numbers matter. And those will go up, just as they are, right now, without HFR (VIA has increased ridership in the corridor by 10% annually for the past 2 years, and is currently trending towards a 5% increase this year). Within two years of just the Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto section of HFR opening there could easily be 7 million passengers per year in the corridor.

But the most important part of HFR is going to be changing peoples perception of intercity passenger rail in Canada. Here is something to consider...

In 1997 there was only about 120km of rail corridor that was owned by passenger rail companies (VIA and GO). In 2008 there was 309km between the two agencies, and today, there is now 572km. Even if just to T-O-M section of VIA HFR is built, that will bring the total to about 875km by 2024ish, not including any other acquisitions GO/Metrolinx might be able to make.

I think it easy to forget the fact that up until a few decades ago, basically the entire history of passenger rail in Canada was about operating on the same lines as freight trains. The concept, and execution of passenger rail service on its own, dedicated lines is actually fairly recent for Canada. And the difference is worlds apart. People in Ottawa know what a semi-modern rail service looks like because they can take the train to Montreal, which is an okay experience. But with the GO expansions, and then HFR, you bring that sort of level of service to Toronto. And with probably around 5 - 7 million people being within a reasonable service area of GO RER or VIA HFR to Ottawa, that is a significant part of the corridors population that is going to experience, in person, sometimes daily, a truly, or close to truly, modern rail service.

HFR wont send ridership skyrocketing, nor does it have to. It just has to get people outside of VIA's current demographic to see intercity rail travel differently. If HFR can simply replace the disdain or apathy people have towards taking the train, with even the slightest hint of interest, then few will question its worth when it kicks off a next, more ambitious phase of intercity rail investment.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I think that "conclusion" stating the Montréal-Québec HFR is not warranted is a way for the Feds to avoid the expensive Mount-Royal tunnel expansion. Seems to "convenient".

Who knows what the obstacle is, but the proposal seems pretty ridiculous. $1.14B on Montreal-Quebec City. While they spend just $91 million for Ottawa-Montreal and $2.1B for Toronto-Ottawa. Montreal-Quebec City also had 18 trains per day while all Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal gets 15 trains per day.

I find it hard to believe that the ridership would justify that much service and that level of demand.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Ridership counts are going to be a big measure of success. They are counting on massive increases in ridership. HFR's success cannot hang on the Ottawa-Toronto route alone. If we cannot count on more than a 15-20 minute saving on the route between Canada's two largest cities, how do we achieve ridership goals?

People fill the trains to Montreal today. I guarantee you a reliable 4:45 service with hourly departures and a decent price will get filled.

Keep in mind it won't take that many more riders on a daily basis to fill the train. The proposed 15 trains daily departures are going through Ottawa. So VIA does not care if it sells a Toronto-Montreal fare or a Toronto-Ottawa ticket and an Ottawa-Montreal fare. It just cares that there's a bum in the seat for most of the time the train is rolling. In fact, the latter combination is actually higher yielding for VIA since those two segments are competitive with air and driving, so VIA could demand higher fares.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

I really hope they can figure out a way to not have the Ottawa-bound trains from Montreal back up for 15 minutes

They are buying bi-directional trains with the Siemens order.