Gas Prices

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Again, how much driving are you doing to max out the potential of a PHEV?

Using the Prius Prime, it has a battery-only range of 40km. Even if you maxed out the battery-only range to drive to work and back, charge at both ends, and drive 365 days a year, to even get 200,000km, you would have to own the car for almost 7 years to effectively amortize the extra cost of the Prius Prime compared to a regular Prius.

But that's a pretty extreme case for someone driving long distances to work and back; using Stats Can's numbers on the median commute distance for Metro Vancouver, the average commute distance for someone that works in Vancouver and commutes in from Abbotsford is 30km each way. To even hope of achieving 200,000km if you drive every day would be closer to 10 years.

Also, car maintenance is dictated by either distance driven, or time, whatever comes first (see your car's manual on that). Never how much actual wear and tear the engine experiences.

In a perfect world, that may make sense, but in the real world where money counts, a family is not going to pay more for a zero emissions vehicle when they can get a similar vehicle for less.

Stop cherry-picking (misdirecting) facts about hybrids and electric vehicles. If anyone reads the past several pages of your responses all at once, it is blatantly obvious you are just spinning in circles. Someone debunks one thing you say, then you cherry-pick (misdirect) to another fallacy, once that's debunked you go on to another.

I'll let Engineering Explained give a straightforward explanation, he provides all citations and links to confirm facts, no subversion needed.


• Video Link


References:

MIT Emissions Study - https://bit.ly/2zeYfqd

Cradle To Grave Emissions Estimates - https://bit.ly/2rEhB4D

Vehicle Production Emission Estimates (Low) - https://bit.ly/2yGoEh8

Vehicle Production Emission Estimates - https://bit.ly/2yoX6hC

Vehicle Production Emission Estimates (High) - https://bit.ly/2dhB1Tu

EV Battery Production Emissions - https://bit.ly/2yCMwSY

End Of Life Emissions - https://bit.ly/2ETHh77

Annual Vehicle Use Emissions - https://bit.ly/2Sxo65K

[retro_orange]

• Video Link

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Again, how much driving are you doing to max out the potential of a PHEV?

Using the Prius Prime, it has a battery-only range of 40km. Even if you maxed out the battery-only range to drive to work and back, charge at both ends, and drive 365 days a year, to even get 200,000km, you would have to own the car for almost 7 years to effectively amortize the extra cost of the Prius Prime compared to a regular Prius.

But that's a pretty extreme case for someone driving long distances to work and back; using Stats Can's numbers on the median commute distance for Metro Vancouver, the average commute distance for someone that works in Vancouver and commutes in from Abbotsford is 30km each way. To even hope of achieving 200,000km if you drive every day would be closer to 10 years.

Also, car maintenance is dictated by either distance driven, or time, whatever comes first (see your car's manual on that). Never how much actual wear and tear the engine experiences.

In a perfect world, that may make sense, but in the real world where money counts, a family is not going to pay more for a zero emissions vehicle when they can get a similar vehicle for less.

I'm using a fairly conservative life of the car as an example. This is a forum, I'm not going to do an IRR calc.

The break even without adding in an opportunity cost is after 73,500 km of ownership in my above example; earlier if gas costs go up, later if they go down. That's like 5 years for a fairly average commuter. Everything after is cake.

Car maintenance is dictated by usage mostly unless the car isn't used much (in which case its moisture, deformation and corrosion). If you don't run the engine, you don't maintain it nearly as much. Why would your oil age if the engine doesn't turn on (aside from moisture). In the case of my Volt, then engine turns itself on once every 3 months to cook off moisture if it hasn't run, then it turns off. The gas also starts to turn to varnish at some point.

Its been about 1.5 years since I had an oil change and 5 years since brake work on my Volt. I had some bearings changed (design flaw - early adopter problem), and some coolant added to top up the battery.

You should read an EV manual, the intervals really aren't the same at all. The maintenance is basically check coolant levels, rotate tires, replace windshield wipers. This is the primary reason many dealers aren't excited to sell EVs, the profit driver they have is maintenance.

I've had to replace window regulators on my VW more frequently than all maintenance combined on my Volt.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

Stop cherry-picking (misdirecting) facts about hybrids and electric vehicles. If anyone reads the past several pages of your responses all at once, it is blatantly obvious you are just spinning in circles. Someone debunks one thing you say, then you cherry-pick (misdirect) to another fallacy, once that's debunked you go on to another.

I'll let Engineering Explained give a straightforward explanation, he provides all citations and links to confirm facts, no subversion needed.


• Video Link

You can't get around the fact that for a similar vehicle, a PHEV is significantly more expensive than a hybrid of the same type, and it should be noted that if your travel distance is significant, one study found that a regular hybrid may be a better choice than a PHEV, particularly in areas that lack a public charging infrastructure:

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/03/20140311-lin.html

A regular consumer is going to look at the price difference between comparably equipped a regular hybrid, and a PHEV, and most will automatically notice that a regular hybrid makes far more economical choice than a PHEV, outside of a few scenarios, on top of the fact that they could probably get a nice vehicle with a more traditional hybrid. You just can't get around the fact that a PHEV costs anywhere from $3000 to $10,000 compared to a similar regular hybrid vehicle, and that's real money to the normal family.

And if you really care about the environment, get a full electric vehicle instead; they are not that much more expensive compared to a PHEV, and they have the range to cover most people's needs.

For example, the list price of a Kia Optima PHEV starts at $42,995 for the EX model. For almost $3000 less, I can buy a Kia Optima Hybrid EX Premium, which gets comparable gas fuel economy, and is a even nicer car to boot. And comparing the same trim levels, a Kia Optima Hybrid is over $9000 cheaper. That's real money to the guy walking into a dealership buying a car, money the person either could use elsewhere in their life, or money that they probably don't have, and have to borrow.

And the biggest issue for the guy walking into a Kia dealer? He's going to look at the Optima PHEV, and notice that the Niro EV right next to it is $2000 more for a pure electric vehicle, that can drive 385km on a single charge; so why buy the PHEV?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Sure, but then what happens in the near future when prices drop? No matter one's opinion on fuel-based vehicles, EVs are getting cheaper to make and sell.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Sure, but then what happens in the near future when prices? No matter one's opinion on fuel-based vehicles, EVs are getting cheaper to make and sell.

Exactly; EV's are the better value moving forward for most consumers.

If you put a ton of miles everyday on the vehicle, and are driving it all day, such as a taxi driver or a courier, a regular hybrid makes sense compared to a PHEV right now (and depending on where battery tech goes, a EV might actually be a feasible option).

If you are the average commuter, a EV makes more sense, financially. The incremental total cost and value of a pure EV compared to a PHEV makes it an absolute no-brainer right now, and that equation will get better down the line as EV's get more range and cheaper.

[Trainguy]

Wild gas prices:

Mobil Langley with discount $121.9

Esso 96th and 192nd $153.9

North Surrey $1.46.9

[whatnext]

But of course they have nothing to hide...

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – The B.C. Utilities Commission is having trouble accessing profit margin data from oil and gas companies as it conducts an inquiry into what is leading to high gas prices around the province.

The companies are apparently refusing to hand over what they call “commercially sensitive information.”

Imperial Oil, Shell, and Husky refuse to reveal how their retail margins in B.C. compare to to elsewhere in Canada....

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/07/03/oil-gas-companies-data-bcuc-inquiry-fuel-prices/

[WarrenC12]

LOL. Crude oil and gasoline are about as standardized a product as you can get.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But of course they have nothing to hide...

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – The B.C. Utilities Commission is having trouble accessing profit margin data from oil and gas companies as it conducts an inquiry into what is leading to high gas prices around the province.

The companies are apparently refusing to hand over what they call “commercially sensitive information.”

Imperial Oil, Shell, and Husky refuse to reveal how their retail margins in B.C. compare to to elsewhere in Canada....

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/07/03/oil-gas-companies-data-bcuc-inquiry-fuel-prices/

That's because the BCUC doesn't have any legal right to the information, as this is a federally regulated industry.

And if this was a real inquiry to begin with, why hasn't the BCUC been allowed to investigate the role of government policies that affect gas prices, such as taxation, green fuel standards, and obstruction of expansion of fuel supplies?

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

That's because the BCUC doesn't have any legal right to the information, as this is a federally regulated industry.

And if this was a real inquiry to begin with, why hasn't the BCUC been allowed to investigate the role of government policies that affect gas prices, such as taxation, green fuel standards, and obstruction of expansion of fuel supplies?

Why did 2 companies submit their information to the commission anyway? I understand the need for privacy and the commission is redacting that infomation submitted. It casts the other companies in a bad light. The only thing that changed in the government side is the ~ 1 cent per litre increase in the carbon tax, and now we see all sorts of fluctuation in the price of gas - i'd like to know what the petroleum companies have to say about that.

If you don't like government policy, effect change on government policy, knowing that relaxing/removing green fuel standards and building pipelines are probably easier to do in the short-term but as science suggests have a significant long term cost.

This is from 7-11's submission:

Another significant seasonal variation is attributable to wildfires. Wildfires may impede routes for delivery of gasoline and diesel to particular stations. Wildfires may also impact the access to motor vehicle fuel supply by haulers who transport fuel to 7-Eleven locations, because in such situations priority fuel supply is given to airlines and airports.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

Why did 2 companies submit their information to the commission anyway? I understand the need for privacy and the commission is redacting that infomation submitted. It casts the other companies in a bad light. The only thing that changed in the government side is the ~ 1 cent per litre increase in the carbon tax, and now we see all sorts of fluctuation in the price of gas - i'd like to know what the petroleum companies have to say about that.

If you don't like government policy, effect change on government policy, knowing that relaxing/removing green fuel standards and building pipelines are probably easier to do in the short-term but as science suggests have a significant long term cost.

This is from 7-11's submission:

Notice the two companies; 7-Eleven and Super Save. 7-Eleven has virtually no presence in BC for gas distribution (all of their gas stations are co-branded with another company, such as Petro-Canada or Esso), and Super Save is a very small player that does not refine gas; they buy it from the wholesale rack. So these two companies have nothing to loose by cooperating.

Shell Canada, Husky Energy, Imperial Oil and Suncor Energy (the big 4), the one that actually own refineries and both the refining and distribution systems, have refused to respond.

And besides estimates regarding the retail margin are fairly easy to figure out; places like OPIS can give you an idea of the wholesale price, and from there, you can figure out the retail margin involved.

But from what I've seen and heard, the retail margin is often fairly thin; once you account for the costs of the property, salaries, maintenance, credit card processing charges, etc, most gas bars are either just breaking even or in some cases, loosing money on gas sales.

And notice 7-Eleven's submissions. There's a clear undertone that the government is responsible for high gas prices, by pointing out government policy that affects the cost of gas.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Notice the two companies; 7-Eleven and Super Save. 7-Eleven has virtually no presence in BC for gas distribution (all of their gas stations are co-branded with another company, such as Petro-Canada or Esso), and Super Save is a very small player that does not refine gas; they buy it from the wholesale rack. So these two companies have nothing to loose by cooperating.

Shell Canada, Husky Energy, Imperial Oil and Suncor Energy (the big 4), the one that actually own refineries and both the refining and distribution systems, have refused to respond.

And besides estimates regarding the retail margin are fairly easy to figure out; places like OPIS can give you an idea of the wholesale price, and from there, you can figure out the retail margin involved.

But from what I've seen and heard, the retail margin is often fairly thin; once you account for the costs of the property, salaries, maintenance, credit card processing charges, etc, most gas bars are either just breaking even or in some cases, loosing money on gas sales.

And notice 7-Eleven's submissions. There's a clear undertone that the government is responsible for high gas prices, by pointing out government policy that affects the cost of gas.

More excuses than Andrew Wilkinson...

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

And notice 7-Eleven's submissions. There's a clear undertone that the government is responsible for high gas prices, by pointing out government policy that affects the cost of gas.

I don't seem to see it, unless you are referring to their mentions of the government-mandated summer blend versus winter blend. I am unsure why summer/winter blends are controversial.

[WarrenC12]

Smoke and mirrors, as usual. Anybody in the market for a new vehicle should be educating themselves on EVs and taking a hard look at their actual transportation requirements.

[WestCoastEcho]

Parkland has filed a response with the BCUC:

https://www.bcuc.com/Documents/Proceedings/2019/DOC_54405_C5-2-Parkland-Evidence.pdf

Skimming over it, it seems to make the following points:

1. Margins are not indicative of profit, and should never be confused, as the refining margin does not take into account various other costs, and the type of product mix being sold by a refinery, some of which is sold at a loss;
2. There's been increases of cost to comply with BC's various green fuel initiatives that the refineries have to absorb. Parkland's Burnaby refinery has seen a 35% increase in costs since 2015 to comply with these requirements;
3. Parkland has had issues with storage requirements to adapt to the green fuel requirements. Since there's very little room to expand storage facilities at the Burnaby refinery, the increasing requirement to mix in renewable fuel has meant storage for refined product gets sacrificed, exacerbating any potential supply uncertainty from Trans Mountain, and any sudden changes in local fuel demand;
4. There are also other pressures in which fuel suppliers have to absorb, such as credit card fees, land costs and property taxes, and salaries of employees, which have all gone up significantly in recent years;
5. Non-fuel revenues (convenience stores, car washes, and other ancillary sales) helps keep gas stations financially afloat. Seems to indicate that gas is either being sold with very thin margins, meaning that they are barely making money or not even breaking even on the sale of fuel;
5. Retail margins of fuel has been declining over the years;
6. Parkland has seen intense competition from Albertan refineries on pricing;
7. Parkland has also had to pay a premium for alternative deliveries and to other shippers to buy allocation on Trans Mountain because the Trans Mountain pipeline is so heavily over subscribed; often the costs to buy up someone else's allocation or to ship crude via rail can be anywhere from 7 to 34 times the base tariff price on Trans Mountain;
8. There is very low barriers for entry for those wanting to supply fuel in BC; witness the many very small players in the wholesale/bulk sales channel, some of which are just a guy with a tanker truck; Parkland is aware of a number of small players who are hauling fuel in from Alberta on trucks, taking advantage of the 75 ML/year threshold contained in the BC low carbon fuels regulations, meaning they don't have the same costs as Parkland does;
9. There is no incentive to arbitrarily drive up prices because of low barriers to entry, and because of constant oversight from Competition Bureau of Canada

Basically, reading over it again, Parkland is saying that what is happening isn’t price gouging at all, but in fact that profit margins are *lower* now than in 2015. It's all of the costs associated with government policies and taxes that are driving up the cost of fuel, especially once you strip away the taxes; the average price of fuel before taxes in BC is comparable to Washington State, California, Oregon, Hawaii, Alaska, and Nevada.

[WestCoastEcho]

I'm also noticing that Parkland has included a report from Dr. Kahwaty, which is clearly pointing out that despite the BC government telling the BCUC that they can't look at BC government taxation policies, it's a whole different ball game once you look at taxation policies. It is almost as if Parkland wanted to ensure that the reasons for higher prices of gasoline were on record despite the limited terms of reference the BCUC is permitted to look at...


(Dr. Kahwaty's report, page 62)

And there's that Low Carbon Fuel Standard the BCUC isn't supposed to look at as well...




(Dr. Kahwaty's report, page 55 and 56)

And my favourite point on the LCFS standard; it costs 3 times(!) as much than a revenue neutral carbon tax to reduce emissions the same amount. Where will that additional cost be made up? That's right; at the pump. But BCUC can't talk about that:


(Dr. Kahwaty's report, page 57 and 58)

Oh, and let's not talk about when there's a regional supply shock...




(Dr. Kahwaty's report, page 88 and 89)

[WestCoastEcho]

Another thought as pointed out by Adam Stirling; What's likely going to happen is that the BCUC will find a price discrepancy it cannot explain because it is forbidden to investigate any provincial policy that affects the price of fuel and that uncertainty will therefore be used for political propaganda by the NDP to further mislead the public.

As most of the gas companies already realize that this is in reality, a propaganda exercise by the Horgan government, using the power of the state to harass them, they won't roll over and make it easy for the Horgan government to do so (hence the lack of cooperation). And the last time the Horgan government did this, the federal government had to step in and shell out $4.5 billion dollars in taxpayer's money to clean up the mess made by the province to buy out the pipeline after Kinder Morgan was sufficiently harassed by the BC government to give up and leave.

Furthermore; when does someone in the BC NDP cabinet realize that compelling fuel suppliers to reveal their profit margins publicly would actually create the situation that the BC NDP is claiming is happening?

Making such information public means it would allow competitors to the companies that have revealed their profit margins to come in and undercut them, then proceed to corner the market, and then abuse their market dominance, thus creating the price fixing situation the BC NDP is claiming is happening.

[WarrenC12]

Do you ever get tired of shilling for these oil and gas companies?

If there's nothing to hide, why aren't they being more forthcoming? If it's all taxes and regulations, show us the fucking math!

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Skimming over it, it seems to make the following points:

1. Margins are not indicative of profit, and should never be confused, as the refining margin does not take into account various other costs, and the type of product mix being sold by a refinery, some of which is sold at a loss;

That's some grade-A bullshit. They are redefining the economic concept of margin now?

Snipping more BS.

6. Parkland has seen intense competition from Albertan refineries on pricing;

But we're told TM is over subscribed and there are refineries in Alberta that can't send their cheaper gasoline to us, which would lower prices.

8. There is very low barriers for entry for those wanting to supply fuel in BC; witness the many very small players in the wholesale/bulk sales channel, some of which are just a guy with a tanker truck; Parkland is aware of a number of small players who are hauling fuel in from Alberta on trucks, taking advantage of the 75 ML/year threshold contained in the BC low carbon fuels regulations, meaning they don't have the same costs as Parkland does;
9. There is no incentive to arbitrarily drive up prices because of low barriers to entry, and because of constant oversight from Competition Bureau of Canada

More bullshit. Refineries were closed in BC and we're constantly told how a new refinery doesn't make any economic sense because they are so capital intensive. That's textbook barrier to entry.