Gas Prices

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by Trainguy

Langley at 200th and 86th $126.9

Esso in Surrey 152nd and 104th $148.9

Makes no sense

yea it jumps. I was driving along Knight street in the early afternoon it was 150.9, a few hours later it was 138.9

Esso on north road was 140.9 when I left and back to 149.9 last night, as were most of the stations along Lougheed in Coquitlam which had been at 138.9 in the afternoon. The opposite to Vancouver. They dropped there and went up here in the evening.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

The Chrysler Pacifica minivan comes in a variant that is almost identical to the Volt concept. It's a plug-in hybrid with a 16kWh battery that can go around 50km on electricity alone, and unlike the Toyota (non-plug-in) hybrids it can deliver close to maximum power using just the electric drive.

There are lots of PHEVs on the market, but the Volt ran full time on an electric engine, using the gas engine as a generator when necessary. At least that's my understanding.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I don't know what you're trying to say. Small scale renewables like rooftop solar and small scale wind can be deployed all over the place at the same time. They can come online quickly, and reduce the need for massive transmission lines and grid upgrades because they produce power close to where it is being used.

I'm saying that solar farms are mostly a waste of time up north, aside from the Okanagan. Wind farms maybe, depending on the location.

True, microgeneration is versatile, but its output is just as negligible; true carbon neutrality requires about 140-150 panels per household, and that's assuming they all function 24/7/365. Still going to need more megaplants.

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

the point i am trying to make is that we should be careful when looking at messing the the geology in an area known for earthquakes. Hydroelectric has worked in this province for over 100yrs whereas geothermal is proving that it might have more issues than thought.

i would rather us take a little longer to study the impacts longer than jump in head first before seeing whats under the surface. earthquakes can be very destructive.

You're not wrong.

[whatnext]

Drivers are paying high gas prices in Greater Vancouver because a lack of competition has created a market “ripe for price gouging,” says a report released Thursday.

The report to the BC Utility Commission’s inquiry into gas and diesel prices in the region says media commentary blaming price spikes on “chronic shortages” or lack of pipeline capacity appears “designed to serve the price gouging behaviour of suppliers rather than shed light on actual market factors and conditions.”

Economist Robyn Allan, former CEO of the Insurance Corporation of BC, and Marc Eliesen, former chairman and CEO of BC Hydro and a former director of Suncor, say they wrote the 47-page report to clear the air on the contentious subject...

...The report found that just four suppliers — Suncor, Imperial, Shell and Parkland — control the gas market in the Lower Mainland.

The result is “a highly concentrated market,” the report found, and the four are likely responsible for “excessive and volatile” prices since 2015.

“This report finds that an absence of competition among refined product suppliers has caused the market to fail,” the report says. “Price is not a function of cost plus a reasonable return on investment as should exist in a functioning market. Price is a function of what the market can bear. This is price gouging.”....

https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/06/28/Vancouver-High-Gas-Prices-Lack-Of-Competition-Gouging/

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

There are lots of PHEVs on the market, but the Volt ran full time on an electric engine, using the gas engine as a generator when necessary. At least that's my understanding.

Yes, and the PHEV version of the Pacifica does the same thing. When there's juice in the battery the engine only comes on when there's an exceptionally high load, just as in the Gen1 version of the Volt.

Not all PHEVs are created equal - many of them just use the batteries to increase the efficiency of the gas engine, which is still required most of the time. The Volt and the Pacifica are the exception to this. So if you're looking for an electric Minivan, the Pacifica is worth looking into, IMHO.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Yes, and the PHEV version of the Pacifica does the same thing. When there's juice in the battery the engine only comes on when there's an exceptionally high load, just as in the Gen1 version of the Volt.

Not all PHEVs are created equal - many of them just use the batteries to increase the efficiency of the gas engine, which is still required most of the time. The Volt and the Pacifica are the exception to this. So if you're looking for an electric Minivan, the Pacifica is worth looking into, IMHO.

It's my understanding the Pacifica is just a conventional plug-in hybrid. The gas engine does not recharge the battery, as the Volt did, and the range on electric is fairly limited (50km)

[L00per]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It's my understanding the Pacifica is just a conventional plug-in hybrid. The gas engine does not recharge the battery, as the Volt did, and the range on electric is fairly limited (50km)

Pacifica Hybrid owner here, in Kamloops.

The ICE engine does not directly charge the battery, save for a small base charge that it maintains for "auto start/stop" at traffic lights, and reverse, which is purely electric drive (though perhaps it might run the ICE to generate electricity for reverse, I've never reversed that far in it...)

The "fairly limited 50km" serves us well, about 85% electric when in town in the summer, despite some nasty hills. On a recent road trip from Kamloops to Vancouver and back via the Coq, we did 716 KM with 156 being electric and 560 gas, with a full battery at the start and not plugging in to charge. The extra 100km or so were from regeneration. 8.6L/100km equivalent according to the dashboard.

ICE kicks in whenever demand exceeds the battery, otherwise it uses battery. There are zero "nerd knobs" to adjust this behaviour.

[s211]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Drivers are paying high gas prices in Greater Vancouver because a lack of competition has created a market “ripe for price gouging,” says a report released Thursday.

The report to the BC Utility Commission’s inquiry into gas and diesel prices in the region says media commentary blaming price spikes on “chronic shortages” or lack of pipeline capacity appears “designed to serve the price gouging behaviour of suppliers rather than shed light on actual market factors and conditions.”

Economist Robyn Allan, former CEO of the Insurance Corporation of BC, and Marc Eliesen, former chairman and CEO of BC Hydro and a former director of Suncor, say they wrote the 47-page report to clear the air on the contentious subject...

...The report found that just four suppliers — Suncor, Imperial, Shell and Parkland — control the gas market in the Lower Mainland.

The result is “a highly concentrated market,” the report found, and the four are likely responsible for “excessive and volatile” prices since 2015.

“This report finds that an absence of competition among refined product suppliers has caused the market to fail,” the report says. “Price is not a function of cost plus a reasonable return on investment as should exist in a functioning market. Price is a function of what the market can bear. This is price gouging.”....

https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/06/28/Vancouver-High-Gas-Prices-Lack-Of-Competition-Gouging/

"Price is a function of what the market can bear. This is price gouging."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Sounds like a lesson in economics is in order.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by s211

"Price is a function of what the market can bear. This is price gouging."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Sounds like a lesson in economics is in order.

It's not a free market, instead it resembles the national cellular networks in Canada. There are a few huge players, they have no incentive to compete and increase supply (ie, building new refineries). Instead they work together indirectly to keep prices and profit margins high.

When the good in question is inelastic, like gasoline, we get predictable results. Only in recent years do we have a substitute (electric vehicles).

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's not a free market, instead it resembles the national cellular networks in Canada. There are a few huge players, they have no incentive to compete and increase supply (ie, building new refineries). Instead they work together indirectly to keep prices and profit margins high.

When the good in question is inelastic, like gasoline, we get predictable results. Only in recent years do we have a substitute (electric vehicles).

There is no incentive to increase supply because the refineries can't get enough supply to begin with in BC. Transmountain is already at capacity, and can't supply more product, be it either refined product, or raw oil for a refinery. And we can't import significant amounts of oil or refined products as our ports and infrastructure are not setup for importing oil, only export.

Also, refineries are very capital intensive to build, and it is not easy getting permitting for a new refinery; the only recent new refinery built in North America was the Sturgeon refinery in Alberta, and that came in severely over budget and delayed.

And there's more refining supply within Canada than there is actual demand; Canada is actually a net exporter of refined product. Problem has always been getting the stuff to market, and there's incredible incentive on the part of the Americans to actually restrict Canadian export ability because by locking us in in terms of being the sole customer that can regularly gain access to Canadian oil, it depresses the price for Canadian oil, meaning they can buy Canadian oil on the cheap, and sell American oil and refined product overseas at a higher price.

Remember, refined products are globally traded commodities, so Canadian refiners compete with global counterparts. In the global context, Canadian refineries compete primarily with large U.S. Gulf Coast refineries that have access to tidewater for export to the overseas markets.

[scottN]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

There is no incentive to increase supply because the refineries can't get enough supply to begin with in BC. Transmountain is already at capacity, and can't supply more product, be it either refined product, or raw oil for a refinery. And we can't import significant amounts of oil or refined products as our ports and infrastructure are not setup for importing oil, only export.

Also, refineries are very capital intensive to build, and it is not easy getting permitting for a new refinery; the only recent new refinery built in North America was the Sturgeon refinery in Alberta, and that came in severely over budget and delayed.

And there's more refining supply within Canada than there is actual demand; Canada is actually a net exporter of refined product. Problem has always been getting the stuff to market, and there's incredible incentive on the part of the Americans to actually restrict Canadian export ability because by locking us in in terms of being the sole customer that can regularly gain access to Canadian oil, it depresses the price for Canadian oil, meaning they can buy Canadian oil on the cheap, and sell American oil and refined product overseas at a higher price.

Remember, refined products are globally traded commodities, so Canadian refiners compete with global counterparts. In the global context, Canadian refineries compete primarily with large U.S. Gulf Coast refineries that have access to tidewater for export to the overseas markets.

Sure the transmountain pipeline is full, but a lot of what it is shipping is dilbit that our local refineries can't handle. If they shipped more refined gasoline (from that under utilized sturgeon refinery in Edmonton) instead we wouldn't be in this mess. Why don't they do it? Hard to say . . . could be:
1. Long term contracts for dilbit trump market demand for gasoline
2. price sensitivity of gasoline means it's more profitable for integrated oil companies to use their pipeline capacity ship more dilbit and gouge us on gasoline.
3. Oil companies are trying to apply political pressure to BC to reduce opposition to TMX.
4. Regulated tarrifs on the trans mountain pipeline mean that gasoline refiners can't simply outbid heavy oil producers for the available space when the gasoline price in Vancouver is high.
5. Alberta refiners are wary of getting shorted when trying to book more capacity on the pipeline and don't want to risk having their stranded gasoline go stale (especially considering that BC has unique refining requirements)

Out of interest I looked up the trans mountain pipeline tarriffs for shipping from Edmonton to Metro Vancouver. The rates are are around $17 per cubic meter regardless of what you ship. That's 1.7 cents per litre or $2.70 per barrel of oil. If the pipeline wasn't regulated the tarrifs would no doubt be much higher, and that would probably bring more gasoline to Vancouver and contribute to lower prices.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by scottN

Sure the transmountain pipeline is full, but a lot of what it is shipping is dilbit that our local refineries can't handle. If they shipped more refined gasoline (from that under utilized sturgeon refinery in Edmonton) instead we wouldn't be in this mess. Why don't they do it? Hard to say . . . could be:
1. Long term contracts for dilbit trump market demand for gasoline
2. price sensitivity of gasoline means it's more profitable for integrated oil companies to use their pipeline capacity ship more dilbit and gouge us on gasoline.
3. Oil companies are trying to apply political pressure to BC to reduce opposition to TMX.
4. Regulated tarrifs on the trans mountain pipeline mean that gasoline refiners can't simply outbid heavy oil producers for the available space when the gasoline price in Vancouver is high.
5. Alberta refiners are wary of getting shorted when trying to book more capacity on the pipeline and don't want to risk having their stranded gasoline go stale (especially considering that BC has unique refining requirements)

Out of interest I looked up the trans mountain pipeline tarriffs for shipping from Edmonton to Metro Vancouver. The rates are are around $17 per cubic meter regardless of what you ship. That's 1.7 cents per litre or $2.70 per barrel of oil. If the pipeline wasn't regulated the tarrifs would no doubt be much higher, and that would probably bring more gasoline to Vancouver and contribute to lower prices.

It is more profitable to ship dilbit because that's what is in very high demand, even with a high tariff on shipping it. For example, just a few weeks ago, Reuters reported that a shipment of 1 million barrels of Albertan dilbit was sent along the Keystone pipeline to the Gulf Coast, loaded onto a tanker that's now heading to Asia:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-c...ap-is-filled-trade-sources-idUSKCN1TJ2AC

Imagine the cost of sending a tanker to the US Gulf Coast to pickup a cargo of oil that was transported all the way along the Keystone pipeline so you can send it to Asia... it was definitely worth it from the viewpoint of one shipper, and apparently, there's going to more shipments like this in the future.

On the topic of transporting on the Transmountain pipeline, the unreserved capacity is allocated via a Apportionment system, which is explained here:

https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2018/08-03pplnpprtnmnt-eng.html

To find out how much oil each pipeline customer wants to transport, the pipeline company has its customers nominate the volume they would like to ship on a monthly basis. If the total volume of nominations for uncommitted capacity is more than what is available, the pipeline company must “apportion” the nominations.

Apportionment is the percentage by which each shipper’s nominated volume is reduced in order to meet the pipeline’s uncommitted capacity. Generally, apportionment is applied equally across all shippers seeking to use that capacity: for example, if shipper A nominates 100 barrels and shipper B nominates 1 000 barrels, then, under 10% apportionment, shipper A will be able to ship 90 barrels, and shipper B will ship 900 barrels.

Apportionment occurs when demand for uncommitted capacity exceeds available capacity in any given month. This can be caused, for example, by increasing oil supply or if pipeline capacity is reduced because of maintenance on the pipeline. In certain circumstances, shippers may over-nominate so the uncommitted capacity they are allocated after apportionment is closer to what they actually want to ship. This is sometimes referred to as nominating “air barrels” and, when practiced by many shippers, can cause very high apportionment on pipelines. Apportionment, or in this case curtailment, can also be applied to contracted volumes under certain circumstances where the pipeline cannot carry its committed capacity. This can be for various reasons, including unplanned outages, maintenance, or downstream restrictions.

[Trainguy]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

yea it jumps. I was driving along Knight street in the early afternoon it was 150.9, a few hours later it was 138.9

Esso on north road was 140.9 when I left and back to 149.9 last night, as were most of the stations along Lougheed in Coquitlam which had been at 138.9 in the afternoon. The opposite to Vancouver. They dropped there and went up here in the evening.

Shell at KG and 88th Friday night $153.9. Esso down the road $139.9.

Chevron 200th and 86th ish.. $123.9

Only in Metro Van...

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by L00per

Pacifica Hybrid owner here, in Kamloops.

The ICE engine does not directly charge the battery, save for a small base charge that it maintains for "auto start/stop" at traffic lights, and reverse, which is purely electric drive (though perhaps it might run the ICE to generate electricity for reverse, I've never reversed that far in it...)

The "fairly limited 50km" serves us well, about 85% electric when in town in the summer, despite some nasty hills. On a recent road trip from Kamloops to Vancouver and back via the Coq, we did 716 KM with 156 being electric and 560 gas, with a full battery at the start and not plugging in to charge. The extra 100km or so were from regeneration. 8.6L/100km equivalent according to the dashboard.

ICE kicks in whenever demand exceeds the battery, otherwise it uses battery. There are zero "nerd knobs" to adjust this behaviour.

Just to clarify, I didn't mean "fairly limited" in a derogatory way, just in relation to the self charging Volt. Plug-in hybrids work excellently for a huge chunk of commuters who don't exceed the electric range in their daily drive. I just wish there were more of them available.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Just to clarify, I didn't mean "fairly limited" in a derogatory way, just in relation to the self charging Volt. Plug-in hybrids work excellently for a huge chunk of commuters who don't exceed the electric range in their daily drive. I just wish there were more of them available.

Problem is that plug-in hybrids are a bit of kludge; what's the point in plugging in a car with a ICE that has a very limited electric only range? A more traditional hybrid is a better value, and the very short range a plug-in hybrid can run on electric only makes it noncompetitive with even the shortest of range EV's out there.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Problem is that plug-in hybrids are a bit of kludge; what's the point in plugging in a car with a ICE that has a very limited electric only range? A more traditional hybrid is a better value, and the very short range a plug-in hybrid can run on electric only makes it noncompetitive with even the shortest of range EV's out there.

What are you talking about? They're just built because they're a sweet spot on the value curve.

PHEVs are made because the small battery takes care of most of your daily needs, while the gas motor is cheaper than the many extra batteries required to provide sufficient range for infrequent trips.

They were a great idea when batteries were $1000/kWh (ie my 2012 Volt). Now that the cost of the batteries is falling quickly, the value proposition is falling off.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

What are you talking about? They're just built because they're a sweet spot on the value curve.

PHEVs are made because the small battery takes care of most of your daily needs, while the gas motor is cheaper than the many extra batteries required to provide sufficient range for infrequent trips.

They were a great idea when batteries were $1000/kWh (ie my 2012 Volt). Now that the cost of the batteries is falling quickly, the value proposition is falling off.

PHEV's are not good value compared to their hybrid counterparts.

For example, take the Prius Prime. It's $5000 more than the base Prius, and even when the Prius is priced equivalently, the regular Prius has more features, seats 1 more person, and has bigger cargo capacity. That $5000 extra cost can buy a lot of fuel to make up for any perceived efficiency gains with the Prius Prime.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

PHEV's are not good value compared to their hybrid counterparts.

For example, take the Prius Prime. It's $5000 more than the base Prius, and even when the Prius is priced equivalently, the regular Prius has more features, seats 1 more person, and has bigger cargo capacity. That $5000 extra cost can buy a lot of fuel to make up for any perceived efficiency gains with the Prius Prime.

If you use battery a significant portion of the time, the savings of not buying gas will easily pay off the cost difference.

With your Prius example, say you use 80% electricity over 200,000 km of driving, you'd save about $13K in gas. If you drive a lot of distance, the payback is really quite quick.

Then you also have less engine maintenance, oil changes, etc...

For the most part, EVs also make hybrids feel pretty lame to drive. My Volt drives very well (and I like very sporty cars). A Prius on the other hand has a reputation for being a slow and terrible handling car.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

PHEV's are not good value compared to their hybrid counterparts.

For example, take the Prius Prime. It's $5000 more than the base Prius, and even when the Prius is priced equivalently, the regular Prius has more features, seats 1 more person, and has bigger cargo capacity. That $5000 extra cost can buy a lot of fuel to make up for any perceived efficiency gains with the Prius Prime.

It’s not just about saving gas, it’s about emissions. I and many others could do their daily commute in a PHEV without ever using the gas motor, unlike a hybrid.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

If you use battery a significant portion of the time, the savings of not buying gas will easily pay off the cost difference.

With your Prius example, say you use 80% electricity over 200,000 km of driving, you'd save about $13K in gas. If you drive a lot of distance, the payback is really quite quick.

Then you also have less engine maintenance, oil changes, etc...

For the most part, EVs also make hybrids feel pretty lame to drive. My Volt drives very well (and I like very sporty cars). A Prius on the other hand has a reputation for being a slow and terrible handling car.

Again, how much driving are you doing to max out the potential of a PHEV?

Using the Prius Prime, it has a battery-only range of 40km. Even if you maxed out the battery-only range to drive to work and back, charge at both ends, and drive 365 days a year, to even get 200,000km, you would have to own the car for almost 7 years to effectively amortize the extra cost of the Prius Prime compared to a regular Prius.

But that's a pretty extreme case for someone driving long distances to work and back; using Stats Can's numbers on the median commute distance for Metro Vancouver, the average commute distance for someone that works in Vancouver and commutes in from Abbotsford is 30km each way. To even hope of achieving 200,000km if you drive every day would be closer to 10 years.

Also, car maintenance is dictated by either distance driven, or time, whatever comes first (see your car's manual on that). Never how much actual wear and tear the engine experiences.

Originally Posted by whatnext

It’s not just about saving gas, it’s about emissions. I and many others could do their daily commute in a PHEV without ever using the gas motor, unlike a hybrid.

In a perfect world, that may make sense, but in the real world where money counts, a family is not going to pay more for a zero emissions vehicle when they can get a similar vehicle for less.