O-Train Line 2/4 [Stage 2 | Greenboro to Limebank/Airport] | In Service

[McC]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

why so grouchy?

[Kitchissippi]

Originally Posted by McC

why so grouchy?

and looking for a bare-knuckle fight.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Stadler has published a press release regarding the FLIRTs being purchased for Stage 2
PDF: https://www.stadlerrail.com/media/pdf/2019_0423_media_release_ottawa_en.pdf
Image: https://www.stadlerrail.com/media/img/flirt_trillium_line.jpg

Looks like they'll be built and assembled in Switzerland and just shipped here in mid-2021.

No different than the Talent's or the Lint's, which were shipped across the pond too. The order is really too small to justify assembling here.

[McC]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

and looking for a bare-knuckle fight.

or one of these:

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by McC

or one of these:

So the train is a representation of how we all feel about the Trillium Line and its history of "upgrades"...

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by kmcamp

No different than the Talent's or the Lint's, which were shipped across the pond too. The order is really too small to justify assembling here.

I assume that either tariffs or being tied up with the Caltrain order is why they aren't being built in Stadler's US plant, which I would think would be cheaper to have them shipped from.

[J.OT13]

Ottawa's top LRT planner stepping down

CBC Ottawa
April 25, 2019

Chris Swail, the senior city staffer who has overseen the planning of Ottawa's $4.66-billion Stage 2 LRT project, is stepping down.

As director of O-Train planning, Swail has spent the last four years shaping the expansion project.

As the public face of the project, he's also been in the hot seat recently.

The contracts for the project include a $1.6-billion deal with SNC-Lavalin that's now under investigation by the city's auditor general over questions about how the company won the bid without meeting certain technical requirements.

The cost of the project also ballooned, rising more than $1 billion from original estimates.

Swail was also involved in the $2.1-billion Stage 1 LRT project from Tunney's Pasture to Blair station, which has missed several deadlines and is yet to open to the public.

In a memo to councillors announcing Swail's departure, transportation general manager John Manconi said Swail is taking time off to be with his family.

Swail's last day on the job is Friday.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ot...DP6Xi9cSDL6lPFXe3aaMA8z4CulQYMdQpVhfeLG4

[J.OT13]

I thought I'd do the same exercise as I did with Confederation Stage 1, but this time ranking and figure predictions for Stage 2 Trillium. A little more of a guessing game than the educated guess of Confederation.

Ridership for Trillium Stage 2 could sit around 40,000 per day, somewhere between the TTC's Scarborough RT and the Sheppard Subway. Up from around 18,000 today thanks to new service in Riverside South, better connections to the S/E Transitway, the airport connector and TOD.

I believe the max capacity will be reached within 5 years.

1. Bayview 21,500: As this is Stage 2 estimates, the figure is higher than my prediction for Confederation 1. The station will likely be the starting point or destination for at least half the Trillium riders. Confederation's Bayview platforms might serve 24,000 with ridership from Bayview Yards and Mechanicsville.
2. Carelton 14,500: serves the region's third largest post-secondary institution.
3. Limebank 10,000: Park-and-ride and bus transfer for suburban south.
4. South Keys 9,800: Serving retail, a cinema, small office building, the Airport Parkway Bridge, the S/E Transitway and as the transfer point for the airport connector, this station will maintain a good level of ridership.
5. Carling (Dow's Lake) 8,500: Serving hundreds of nearby condos and apartments along with handling transfers from Carling Avenue, this station will be one of the busiest on the line. With thousands more proposed residential units and the super-hospital coming down the pipe in about 10 years, it could become one of the busiest line stations on the entire system.
6. Walkley 4,000: Serving low and medium density residential, a hotel and retail/entertainment along with the S/E Transitway.
7. Gladstone 3,200: fairly low numbers initially, this could go up significantly with the Trinity proposal and Gladstone Village.
8. Greenboro 2,800: With the addition of South Keys and Walkley, this one will likely lose ridership. Though as it is still one of three stations linked to the S/E Transitway and it has a slightly superior proximity to grocery services compared to other stations, it might maintain a fair ridership until better grocery options open-up for University students north of Dow's Lake.
9. Leitrim 3,000: Park-and-ride and bus transfer for rural and suburban south.
10. YOW-Airport 2,250: With an average of about 15,000 people passing through the airport on a daily basis (between passengers and employees), I think we could expect a ridership level of roughly 15% considering the three train ride to and from Downtown. Compare that to Vancouver, where 50%* of passengers use Canada Line's far superior service.
11. Mooney's Bay 2,200: not expecting much growth from this station, surrounded by car-centric federal office complexes, until significant redevelopment occurs decades from now.
12. Bowesville 2,100: Park-and-ride and bus transfer for rural and suburban south.
13. Uplands 350: Lowest ridership on the Trillium and likely on the entire system post-Stage 2. The station does offer potential for expanded Airport Authority services such as long-term passenger parking, hotel(s) or a retail destination similar to MacArthur Glen Designer Outlet* at Vancouver's Airport (but on a much smaller scale).

*Thanks to Reece Martin's informative video on Vancouver's airport and expansion plans.

[Kitchissippi]

Riverside South has a population of 15K, and I would think not more than half would commuting workers (because kids, stay at home parents, home businesses, retirees, etc). Of that 7,500 an optimistic mode split of 30% for transit results in 2,250. Wondering how you came up with the 10K for Limebank.

[J.OT13]

My numbers for Limebank are a little wonky. I had them higher before I checked the current population (I thought the area had closer to 30,000).

My reasoning is based partially on growth; Rverside South will likely grow by a few more thousand over the next 3 years, and the possibility that some Barrhaven routes might serve Limebank Station. Now that I'm looking through documents, doesn't seem like Limebank has a park and ride, which could push ridership down further.

Note also that my ridership figures are based on round trips, so your proposed 2,250 would double to 4,500.

[Kitchissippi]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Note also that my ridership figures are based on round trips, so your proposed 2,250 would double to 4,500.

That results in double counting, net ridership should only be departures from a station, not arrivals.

[H>T&T>P]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Riverside South has a population of 15K, and I would think not more than half would commuting workers (because kids, stay at home parents, home businesses, retirees, etc). Of that 7,500 an optimistic mode split of 30% for transit results in 2,250. Wondering how you came up with the 10K for Limebank.

Transit riders in the South End of Barrhaven will seriously look at this as an option. I can get to Limebank quicker than I can get to Fallowfield. I can get to Leitrim within 2 mins of Fallowfield.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

That results in double counting, net ridership should only be departures from a station, not arrivals.

I've seen both methods used. I've always been more inclined to counting the total (doubling), but if entries is the standard, I might do that going forward.

[Davis137]

There is additional work happening on the retrofit of the line over top and north of Hunt Club. I guess they are making sure that the grading and drainage along the line is up to snuff, and I have also seen trucks with rail jacks along there too. It will be interesting to see trains go PAST Southkeys in the not-so distant future...

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Davis137

There is additional work happening on the retrofit of the line over top and north of Hunt Club. I guess they are making sure that the grading and drainage along the line is up to snuff, and I have also seen trucks with rail jacks along there too. It will be interesting to see trains go PAST Southkeys in the not-so distant future...

Most, if not all, of the corridor has had work done, mostly clearing the right of way. The right of way is very obvious now at the EY Centre. I drove by their yesterday. When do we actually classify that the project is underway?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I thought I'd do the same exercise as I did with Confederation Stage 1, but this time ranking and figure predictions for Stage 2 Trillium. A little more of a guessing game than the educated guess of Confederation.

Ridership for Trillium Stage 2 could sit around 40,000 per day, somewhere between the TTC's Scarborough RT and the Sheppard Subway. Up from around 18,000 today thanks to new service in Riverside South, better connections to the S/E Transitway, the airport connector and TOD.

I believe the max capacity will be reached within 5 years.

LOL. No. Scarborough is a borough of more than 600 000 with the SRT being the sole rail line through it. There's no way the Trillium Line comes close to that level of ridership.

There may be unmet latent demand from the lack of capacity on Trillium and new demand to be addressed from extension. But a 120% increase is a stretch. I think 30k at launch is more likely. And only because the the airport is now included. Otherwise, I'd have bet closer to 25k.

Originally Posted by J.OT13

1. Bayview 21,500: As this is Stage 2 estimates, the figure is higher than my prediction for Confederation 1. The station will likely be the starting point or destination for at least half the Trillium riders. Confederation's Bayview platforms might serve 24,000 with ridership from Bayview Yards and Mechanicsville.
2. Carelton 14,500: serves the region's third largest post-secondary institution.
3. Limebank 10,000: Park-and-ride and bus transfer for suburban south.
4. South Keys 9,800: Serving retail, a cinema, small office building, the Airport Parkway Bridge, the S/E Transitway and as the transfer point for the airport connector, this station will maintain a good level of ridership.
5. Carling (Dow's Lake) 8,500: Serving hundreds of nearby condos and apartments along with handling transfers from Carling Avenue, this station will be one of the busiest on the line. With thousands more proposed residential units and the super-hospital coming down the pipe in about 10 years, it could become one of the busiest line stations on the entire system.
6. Walkley 4,000: Serving low and medium density residential, a hotel and retail/entertainment along with the S/E Transitway.
7. Gladstone 3,200: fairly low numbers initially, this could go up significantly with the Trinity proposal and Gladstone Village.
8. Greenboro 2,800: With the addition of South Keys and Walkley, this one will likely lose ridership. Though as it is still one of three stations linked to the S/E Transitway and it has a slightly superior proximity to grocery services compared to other stations, it might maintain a fair ridership until better grocery options open-up for University students north of Dow's Lake.
9. Leitrim 3,000: Park-and-ride and bus transfer for rural and suburban south.
10. YOW-Airport 2,250: With an average of about 15,000 people passing through the airport on a daily basis (between passengers and employees), I think we could expect a ridership level of roughly 15% considering the three train ride to and from Downtown. Compare that to Vancouver, where 50%* of passengers use Canada Line's far superior service.
11. Mooney's Bay 2,200: not expecting much growth from this station, surrounded by car-centric federal office complexes, until significant redevelopment occurs decades from now.
12. Bowesville 2,100: Park-and-ride and bus transfer for rural and suburban south.
13. Uplands 350: Lowest ridership on the Trillium and likely on the entire system post-Stage 2. The station does offer potential for expanded Airport Authority services such as long-term passenger parking, hotel(s) or a retail destination similar to MacArthur Glen Designer Outlet* at Vancouver's Airport (but on a much smaller scale).

Some of these numbers are really off. Limebank, Carleton, Bayview and Leitrim are too high. You're underestimating both the airport and EY centre in my opinion.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Most, if not all, of the corridor has had work done, mostly clearing the right of way. The right of way is very obvious now at the EY Centre. I drove by their yesterday. When do we actually classify that the project is underway?

About now I guess. Since the contract was awarded.

They are doing their best to finish within a year and a half. And lots of prep today will help. Signs of intelligence at City works dept and the contractor? I hope.....

[Nowhere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

LOL. No. Scarborough is a borough of more than 600 000 with the SRT being the sole rail line through it. There's no way the Trillium Line comes close to that level of ridership.

To be fair, people taking the bus to Scarborough Center need three transfers to get downtown, the last one being on a line running at 100+% of its max capacity.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nowhere

To be fair, people taking the bus to Scarborough Center need three transfers to get downtown, the last one being on a line running at 100+% of its max capacity.

Right. SRT ridership would be even higher if that train wasn't such a clusterf**k. So many Prime take buses from Kennedy instead.

To argue that Trillium would see higher ridership than the SRT is a stretch.

[topworker]

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