Oakridge Park | 13 Towers | 154m | 52fl | 5M sqft | U/C

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by e-clam9

Like everything we see in reality, anything going crazily high (like the 2001 internet bubble, or the 2008 worldwide financial crisis...) must come back down. These condo may not crash back down to normal Vancouver price, I will not be surprised that these drop in value in future after the La La Land dreaming period. Let's allow the speculators/investors/top-1%-rich-guys to have some fun now... Look at the current high end $3M+ detached houses now, many have dropped 20+% since last year. The market is still cooling down... This is just my personal crazy guess

Pretty much. Question is, are they still willing to have fun, or have they left Westbank with a big, empty megadevelopment?

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by e-clam9

Like everything we see in reality, anything going crazily high (like the 2001 internet bubble, or the 2008 worldwide financial crisis...) must come back down. These condo may not crash back down to normal Vancouver price, I will not be surprised that these drop in value in future after the La La Land dreaming period. Let's allow the speculators/investors/top-1%-rich-guys to have some fun now... Look at the current high end $3M+ detached houses now, many have dropped 20+% since last year. The market is still cooling down... This is just my personal crazy guess

Exactly, all these new buildings we built in the past few years will get old, dated and tired looking and the quality is poor now which will show as they age. While the new Oakridge condos are attractive and in what is currently a desirable area, that may not be the case in another 20 years. We are still on the cusp of land value deflation and there are no signs that economic conditions where money flows in uncontrollably will ever happen again unless Canada is taken over by the US. I doubt anyone other than realtors who lived here through the past few years would be interested in welcoming all that corruption in again by backtracking on recent policy changes to cool our real estate.

Oakridges' late launch in the game may easily put it in white elephant country as completion nears on the first condos. We are already seeing this with SFH and high end condos purchased at the peak, houses in the west side surrounding Oakridge are selling on average 10-30% below last years' assessed value. Read this twitter feed for numerous stories: https://twitter.com/VanREflipflops

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Westside / Oakridge is already a fairly prestigious area - but for single family homes.
The jump is assuming that that prestige / value transfers from single family homes to condos (especially when there is a lot of other product in the vicinity).

Oakridge is on Cambie, which is the boundary between Point Grey and East/South Van. https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/image...Screen-Shot-2018-12-19-at-1.03.51-PM.png

Originally Posted by Vin

Exactly. A few other projects will complement Oakridge Town Centre: namely the Pearson Dogwood project, Langara Gardens, the old Translink bus yard, Heather Lands (RCMP) and even Little Mountain, are all in the vicinity of the development. The in-betweens will just be filled-in in no time.

Pearson Dogwood:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-langara-gardens-redevelopment-policy-statement-march-2018

Heather Lands:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-heather-lands-redevelopment-approved-may-2018


The most expensive buildings and condos will be found centrally, ie. at Oakridge mall.

Yeah, but those are going to come in after the first Oakridge condos come in. Not to mention, it STILL doesn't compensate that this is a generic suburban town centre.

Most of the stuff I can get at Oakridge, I can get at, say, Station Square, which sells 3 bedrooms at 2M, and is next to one of the most popular malls in Canada, unlike Oakridge, which doesn't beat it in retail floor space even in their plans due to the aquifier. There is no prestige yet, only promises. Those promises are not built much on fixed, existing entities.

Originally Posted by retro_orange

Exactly, all these new buildings we built in the past few years will get old, dated and tired looking and the quality is poor now which will show as they age. While the new Oakridge condos are attractive and in what is currently a desirable area, that may not be the case in another 20 years. We are still on the cusp of land value deflation and there are no signs that economic conditions where money flows in uncontrollably will ever happen again unless Canada is taken over by the US. I doubt anyone other than realtors who lived here through the past few years would be interested in welcoming all that corruption in again by backtracking on recent policy changes to cool our real estate.

Oakridges' late launch in the game may easily put it in white elephant country as completion nears on the first condos. We are already seeing this with SFH and high end condos purchased at the peak, houses in the west side surrounding Oakridge are selling on average 10-30% below last years' assessed value. Read this twitter feed for numerous stories: https://twitter.com/VanREflipflops

The thing is this development is so big that if it fails, Westbank would have to severely divest its properties and developments. This is Westbank's Pacific Place. They've made their grave, and now they have to lie in it.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Oakridge is on Cambie, which is the boundary between Point Grey and East/South Van.

Well Duh, I know where Oakridge is. It's still a prestigious area of the city.

Originally Posted by giallo

I think the Oakridge redevelopment could have only been born out of the insane conditions that Vancouver's "gold rush" real estate has gone through in the last few years. I can't see this project having a future in its current form. Things are going to have to change.

It would be nice if they built more affordable condos. The question is whether they can afford to do so with the cost of all the community amenity contributions planned.

Maybe it'll end up being another NEFC park - an unfinished rooftop park pending completion of the final phases of the project?

But then again, the rooftop park is also closely tied to the redevelopment of the shopping mall, which may be financially viable without reference to the residential components.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Well Duh, I know where Oakridge is. It's still a prestigious area of the city.

Come to think of it, the project might've done better in Kerrisdale (at least with a large-enough lot and less NIMBYs). Oakridge is technically affluent, but if we're talking about million-dollar condos it looks more and more like typical Suburbistan.

[logan5]

50 years down the road, when Vancouver will have presumably long since gotten its act together, and people are living in far more humane low-rise units and stacked town-houses on a proper street grid, this development will be a ghetto. (lol).

Shopping malls like this (even with an outdoor element) could easily go out of business years down the road. Maybe people will prefer shopping only on interesting retail streets, or on-line. If that happens, where does it leave a development like this? Completely isolated.(see Ghetto)

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

Originally Posted by logan5

Shopping malls like this (even with an outdoor element) could easily go out of business years down the road. Maybe people will prefer shopping only on interesting retail streets. If that happens, where does it leave a development like this? Completely isolated.(see Ghetto)

Millennials Tried to Kill the American Mall, But Gen Z Might Save It

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

Millennials Tried to Kill the American Mall, But Gen Z Might Save It

Oh gezz, millennial bashing again. Who was the generation that built this empire of online retail? Baby boomers and Gen Xers created the online retail business environment. It started when millennials were all in elementary and high school.

[logan5]

Oh. I should've added online shopping as another reason malls will go out of business. That's a big one actually.

[SpongeG]

Malls are transforming to more. A lot of Brentwood seems to be entertainment or food related. Thats the way its all going.

Look at some of the malls in Asia they are building. That new one in Thailand looks nuts. But its all about lifestyle and incorporating experiences with shopping seeming like an aside.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by logan5

Oh. I should've added online shopping as another reason malls will go out of business. That's a big one actually.

Wasn't it just a few years ago that everybody was predicting how smartphones and tablets would completely replace the desktop? Or how 3D was the future ... again? Perhaps we should stop trying to re-envision the entire world to fit every passing trend.

Nah, if Oakridge fails, it'll be because it takes more than a mall to make up a town centre. Gotta develop all the stuff around it too.

[svlt]

Predictions of the demise of the mall are a bit premature. People still have to do stuff with their time and Vancouver rains, a lot. And will probably rain moreso with a changing climate even if it warms up a bit. A utopian outdoor shopping boulevard isn't a year round affair in this city. The mall's also a decent alternative for young families with a park is out of the option on a weekend due to the rain.

There's nothing ideal about the demise of the mall in a city fabric when the replacement is people staying homes to use their iDevices to buy things to be shipped via drones through Amazon.

[SpongeG]

Anyone just has to go to Oakridge, Lougheed or Brentwood right now and see how busy the malls actually still are despite being a construction zone with many boarded up empty stores.

There are a lot of people, I think a lot of recent immigrants who socialize differently to Canadians, they seem to love hanging out at the mall in the public areas. Lougheed created a lounge with just tables and plugins in an empty retail space and it always has people sitting in there hanging out.

They installed an indoor plaything for kids and that is just crawling with kids all the time.


miss604.com

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Come to think of it, the project might've done better in Kerrisdale (at least with a large-enough lot and less NIMBYs). Oakridge is technically affluent, but if we're talking about million-dollar condos it looks more and more like typical Suburbistan.

Yeah, anything near water would be better than Oakridge's location for condos for views and proximity to outdoor activities (west coast).
Jericho lands would even be better since Jericho Park is just down the hill across 4th Ave.

I wonder whether there is a comparable market to, say, people who buy condos in Kerrisdale?

[Vin]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Oakridge is on Cambie, which is the boundary between Point Grey and East/South Van. https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/image...Screen-Shot-2018-12-19-at-1.03.51-PM.png


Yeah, but those are going to come in after the first Oakridge condos come in. Not to mention, it STILL doesn't compensate that this is a generic suburban town centre.

Most of the stuff I can get at Oakridge, I can get at, say, Station Square, which sells 3 bedrooms at 2M, and is next to one of the most popular malls in Canada, unlike Oakridge, which doesn't beat it in retail floor space even in their plans due to the aquifier. There is no prestige yet, only promises. Those promises are not built much on fixed, existing entities.



The thing is this development is so big that if it fails, Westbank would have to severely divest its properties and developments. This is Westbank's Pacific Place. They've made their grave, and now they have to lie in it.

You certainly don't understand where wealthy prefer to live and work in the Lower Mainland. These folks, contrary to what you may think, also want the nice things, services and retail offered in places further away to be close by. City of Vancouver policies have not attracted a lot of nice things into Vancouver proper outside downtown in recent times, but once that opportunity presents itself, as in the case of Oakridge mall, the wealthy pay attention to that. That's the prestige of Oakridge area, and its close proximity to downtown Vancouver and a Vancouver civic address give it even more clout.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Anyone just has to go to Oakridge, Lougheed or Brentwood right now and see how busy the malls actually still are despite being a construction zone with many boarded up empty stores.

There are a lot of people, I think a lot of recent immigrants who socialize differently to Canadians, they seem to love hanging out at the mall in the public areas. Lougheed created a lounge with just tables and plugins in an empty retail space and it always has people sitting in there hanging out.

They installed an indoor plaything for kids and that is just crawling with kids all the time.


miss604.com

Malls are always busy, despite what naysayers here may claim.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Vin

You certainly don't understand where wealthy prefer to live and work in the Lower Mainland. These folks, contrary to what you may think, also want the nice things, services and retail offered in places further away to be close by. City of Vancouver policies have not attracted a lot of nice things into Vancouver proper outside downtown in recent times, but once that opportunity presents itself, as in the case of Oakridge mall, the wealthy pay attention to that. That's the prestige of Oakridge area, and its close proximity to downtown Vancouver and a Vancouver civic address give it even more clout.

Except that for all those reasons, the wealthy would rather move into an existing town centre instead of the boonies. At $1+ million per bedroom, that's exactly what Oakridge is - the boonies.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Vin

You certainly don't understand where wealthy prefer to live and work in the Lower Mainland. These folks, contrary to what you may think, also want the nice things, services and retail offered in places further away to be close by. City of Vancouver policies have not attracted a lot of nice things into Vancouver proper outside downtown in recent times, but once that opportunity presents itself, as in the case of Oakridge mall, the wealthy pay attention to that. That's the prestige of Oakridge area, and its close proximity to downtown Vancouver and a Vancouver civic address give it even more clout.

Yeah, but you've haven't explained why. What makes it so much more livable than Metrotown, for instance, despite being located a similar distance from the COV?

[Galaxy]

I stopped into the exhibition space/sales center for Oakridge the other day and it was literally packed so any indication that Westbank is having a hard time selling their project is not getting filtered to all the people packed in there buying the units up. It's kind of annoying though if you're wanting to check out the displays when their staff is constantly approaching you when you just want to be left alone. Lol!

Also noticed more trees have been removed around the mall and the work to move utilities and other services out of areas for construction continue. I haven't heard when Safeway at Oakridge is closing but imagine its soon. I wished they had built a place nearby because once the old Safeway closes the area will be without a grocery store which I imagine will make it tough for the people that regularly shop there.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

I stopped into the exhibition space/sales center for Oakridge the other day and it was literally packed so any indication that Westbank is having a hard time selling their project is not getting filtered to all the people packed in there buying the units up. It's kind of annoying though if you're wanting to check out the displays when their staff is constantly approaching you when you just want to be left alone. Lol!

Also noticed more trees have been removed around the mall and the work to move utilities and other services out of areas for construction continue. I haven't heard when Safeway at Oakridge is closing but imagine its soon. I wished they had built a place nearby because once the old Safeway closes the area will be without a grocery store which I imagine will make it tough for the people that regularly shop there.

Any stats on how many units have sold? To throw a big wrench into this being a success, it's become quite obvious many units will be flipped before completion, Remember Vancouver House and how Westbank had to crack down on assignment sales? Most of those people in the sales centre won't be the end user doing the suite inspections upon completion.