OC Transpo

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

They are definitely capable of restricting certain types of buses. Before double deckers became commonplace they were only ever used during peak periods.

Was that due to a restriction, or was it that they just tried to use them only during peak periods and you didn't notice the exceptions?

Some routes are also not cleared to be done by double deckers (the 299 for instance, I believe).

Why is that? Clearance issues?

Generally, OC Transpo doesn't have any hard restrictions on what bus can run which route because with the fleet we have they have no reason to, but that doesn't mean they couldn't if they had to.

My reference was the hybrids. They should have been restricted to local routes, but OC Transpo wasn't able to keep them off of the other routes where they weren't very efficient.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Was that due to a restriction, or was it that they just tried to use them only during peak periods and you didn't notice the exceptions?

They were specifically scheduled for certain runs (they even had their schedules posted on the website).

The new Novabuses are also similarly scheduled to do very specific runs right now.

Why is that? Clearance issues?

Yes. The issue is somewhere in Manotick.
The 106 and 45 may also fall into this category because of the overhangs on Ring Road.

My reference was the hybrids. They should have been restricted to local routes, but OC Transpo wasn't able to keep them off of the other routes where they weren't very efficient.

The thing is, they were. The problem was that a lot of local routes had short/long sections along the Transitway. Hybrids were and are never scheduled to run express/connexion routes although you can occasionally see them covering some of those runs when another bus breaks down or otherwise isn't able to do one of the connexion runs. That's only because the hybrids are flexible enough to be used long-distance if absolutely necessary.

If they needed to introduce a hard restriction, I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to. There are plenty of buses that get dedicated to running local routes (like the 112) as it is, and they'd just need to replace those buses with the electric ones and make sure it doesn't get pulled to cover a long-distance route.

[Truenorth00]

Tangentially. What's OC Transpo's bus fleet strategy is post Stage 2?

They have ~360 artics. I doubt they need that many after Stage 2 since artics aren't sensible for feeder routes. However, they have nearly 500 non-articulated buses that are all older than the artics or double-deckers. This is some upside down fleet management.

http://www.octranspo.com/about-octranspo/bus_fleet

I can never understand why they don't consider long rolling orders. With the 82 diesel buses they just ordered. And the 180 bus reduction from Stage 1, they should be launching a 600 bus multi-year (say 7-10 years) procurement contract for renewal. Put out a large tender like that and they'd get great discounts with pledge for rolling upgrades.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Tangentially. What's OC Transpo's bus fleet strategy is post Stage 2?

They have ~360 artics. I doubt they need that many after Stage 2 since artics aren't sensible for feeder routes. However, they have nearly 500 non-articulated buses that are older that are all older than the artics or double-deckers. This is some upside down fleet management.

http://www.octranspo.com/about-octranspo/bus_fleet

I can never understand why they don't consider long rolling orders. With the 82 diesel buses they just ordered. And the 180 bus reduction from Stage 1, they should be launching a 600 bus multi-year (say 7-10 years) procurement contract for renewal. Put out a large tender like that and they'd get great discounts with pledge for rolling upgrades.

That's more or less what they're doing. They're replacing 320 buses (40-foot diesel) over the next 4 years.

82 buses this year to replace 82 retiring buses.
91 next year, 79 to replace retiring buses and 12 for expansion
The rest, TBD

The artics are still young enough that they won't need to be replaced until Stage 2 is done (as long as that's finished on time). They only just started refurbishing the oldest ones last year.
We'll just have to hope that they don't try to replace all ~360 articulated buses at once again..

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

They were specifically scheduled for certain runs (they even had their schedules posted on the website).

The new Novabuses are also similarly scheduled to do very specific runs right now.

There is a difference between being scheduled to a specific route and being restricted to that route.

The thing is, they were. The problem was that a lot of local routes had short/long sections along the Transitway.

Fair enough, though there are plenty of routes that don't have "short/long sections along the Transitway" that they could have been used on.

Hybrids were and are never scheduled to run express/connexion routes although you can occasionally see them covering some of those runs when another bus breaks down or otherwise isn't able to do one of the connexion runs. That's only because the hybrids are flexible enough to be used long-distance if absolutely necessary.

And there is the rub. OC Transpo is having issues with too many cancelled runs as it is. Start adding buses that can't be used on most routes and you are only going to exasperate the problem.

If they needed to introduce a hard restriction, I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to. There are plenty of buses that get dedicated to running local routes (like the 112) as it is, and they'd just need to replace those buses with the electric ones and make sure it doesn't get pulled to cover a long-distance route.

If they can introduce a hard restriction, then okay. The other question is would they want to? Having the flexibility to put a bus on any route they choose has significant value in operational flexibility.

With the double deckers they had their hands tied because they needed capacity without the large footprint of an articulated bus. The "need" for electric buses isn't that strong, yet.

We are also going through a major change in our transit system right now with Stage 1 of the Confederation Line nearing completion and Stage 2 under way. Is that the best time to be throwing another variable into the mix? What works or doesn't work today may or may not be more effective in the future.

Also how can you measure the benefits when you don't have a solid baseline to compare it to? There is wisdom in letting the dust settle a bit first. We can still watch what other cities are doing and learn from their experiences.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

That's more or less what they're doing. They're replacing 320 buses (40-foot diesel) over the next 4 years.

82 buses this year to replace 82 retiring buses.
91 next year, 79 to replace retiring buses and 12 for expansion
The rest, TBD

The artics are still young enough that they won't need to be replaced until Stage 2 is done (as long as that's finished on time). They only just started refurbishing the oldest ones last year.

My point here is that you don't get large discounts by doing piecemeal replacements of 80 here, 70 there. That's a sub-par acquisition strategy. Especially when you can forecast exactly what your replacement cycle is and you can reasonably budget for the years to come.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

My point here is that you don't get large discounts by doing piecemeal replacements of 80 here, 70 there. That's a sub-par acquisition strategy. Especially when you can forecast exactly what your replacement cycle is and you can reasonably budget for the years to come.

It's possible (and very well likely) that the contract for the 82 new buses has options for more buses if/when they need them. That's how OC Transpo has done their bus acquisitions in the past, namely with the Double Deckers where the second order was OC Transpo exercising an option for more that was part of the original contract.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

That's more or less what they're doing. They're replacing 320 buses (40-foot diesel) over the next 4 years.

82 buses this year to replace 82 retiring buses.
91 next year, 79 to replace retiring buses and 12 for expansion
The rest, TBD

The artics are still young enough that they won't need to be replaced until Stage 2 is done (as long as that's finished on time). They only just started refurbishing the oldest ones last year.
We'll just have to hope that they don't try to replace all ~360 articulated buses at once again..

Exactly. We will still need most of the artics during Stage 2 construction and that isn't scheduled to be completed until 2025. That is lots of time to develop a strategy for post stage 2. Don't forget that until recently, stage 2 wasn't a sure thing. If it hadn't received final approval, OC Transpo's strategy would need to be very different.

My guess is post Stage 2, OC Transpo will replace some of the articulated buses at their end of life for use on Frequent and remaining Rapid routes, will continue to use their existing double decker buses on the Connexion routes to Barrhaven and Kanata/Stittsville and will purchase additional 40' buses on local routes (including the new local routes in Orleans that feed the Confederation Line).

The big question is how many of each type will they need? It is probably too early to know for sure, so they will likely have conservative orders with options to buy extras.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

It's possible (and very well likely) that the contract for the 82 new buses has options for more buses if/when they need them. That's how OC Transpo has done their bus acquisitions in the past, namely with the Double Deckers where the second order was OC Transpo exercising an option for more that was part of the original contract.

And, OC Transpo can't commit to a multi year order without a funding commitment from counsel and counsel is probably leary to do that until the dust settles from the Confederation Line opening.

[Multi-modal]

Something interesting I found from the Earl Armstrong Road Extension Public Open House boards: a map showing the thinking of OC Transpo to service the Leitrim area with a "U" route between Earl Armstrong and Leitrim Stations.

[TransitZilla]

Originally Posted by Multi-modal

Something interesting I found from the Earl Armstrong Road Extension Public Open House boards: a map showing the thinking of OC Transpo to service the Leitrim area with a "U" route between Earl Armstrong and Leitrim Stations.

Yeesh. As a former resident of Findlay Creek, I don't think that makes very much sense at all.

Although it serves the Casino/racetrack, there is literally nothing along the entire Earl Armstrong corridor. Why run a bus route along there?

It would make more sense to have buses looping through Findlay Creek from Leitrim Station, and a separate route from Leitrim Station straight down Albion to serve the Casino.

[Multi-modal]

Originally Posted by bradnixon

Although it serves the Casino/racetrack, there is literally nothing along the entire Earl Armstrong corridor. Why run a bus route along there?

I don't know the area much, but based off the fact they are planning an urban cross-section for Earl Armstrong between Albion and Bank, it seem inevitable they will expand the urban boundary to surround the Earl Armstrong.

I think it would be fine to have the route shown, but the 93 also needs to be maintained within Leitrim to continue to service Bank Street and Findlay Creek Drive.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

You are assuming that the buses are never deployed to all day routes.

Hardly. Which is why I want trials and not flat out purchases. Are there routes where BEBs might work all day? Let's find out.

Originally Posted by roger1818

We can't make that assumption as OC Transpo is incapable of restricting a model of bus from certain routes.

Originally Posted by roger1818

Agreed, but until Stage 3 is complete, not all routes will travel to LRT stations, and I will say it again, OC Transpo can't guarantee that the electric buses would be limited to routes that serve LRT stations.

First, I doubt this to be true given their past management of double-deckers and even the route proving they did when they first inducted them. Next, if they aren't capable of basic segmentation and management, they are going to have real issues as the city and they grow larger. Now, is as good a time as any to start learning how to segment and deploy fleets. And it can be as simple as "this type of bus only works on urban routes so we'll deploy all our BEBs in central Ottawa and operate out of the St. Laurent bus depot only".

Originally Posted by roger1818

As you later stated, the range gets shortened in winter. Battery technology is getting better, but chemistry limits the maximum charge density a Li Ion battery can have. Maybe someone will come up with an even better battery technology, but I wouldn't assume that it will happen in the next 3-5 years.

I've actually done some grad work on electrification. The pace of progress is akin to computers in the mid-90s and smartphones in the early 2000s. We absolutely can get there in a half decade. Better thermal management, for example, limits range loss substantially. Which is why I said 200km at -40C today. In 5 years, we should expect that to be 300 - 400 km @ -40C as both battery chemistry and pack management improves. I find it hard to believe that buses regularly going to stations can't operate with even a 200km winter range when they have the opportunity to regularly top up.

Also. As JohnnyRenton pointed out they are already doing trials in Winnipeg. And I'd offer up Moscow as an example. I think you'll agree they have a similar climate. They're inducting hundreds of electric buses with the goal of going to only electric procurement by 2021:

https://eurasianetwork.eu/2018/05/17/moscow-will-receive-200-new-electric-buses-next-september/

Originally Posted by roger1818

I am not against electric buses, but I also don't think it is a bad thing that OC Transpo is watching what other cities are doing for now as long as we learn from their mistakes.

Ottawa has a unique operational environment with both its climate, mix of urban and highly rural routes and operating speeds from urban to highway. This requires local trials. You can't just draw conclusions looking at TTC data.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Exactly. We will still need most of the artics during Stage 2 construction and that isn't scheduled to be completed until 2025. That is lots of time to develop a strategy for post stage 2. Don't forget that until recently, stage 2 wasn't a sure thing. If it hadn't received final approval, OC Transpo's strategy would need to be very different.

My guess is post Stage 2, OC Transpo will replace some of the articulated buses at their end of life for use on Frequent and remaining Rapid routes, will continue to use their existing double decker buses on the Connexion routes to Barrhaven and Kanata/Stittsville and will purchase additional 40' buses on local routes (including the new local routes in Orleans that feed the Confederation Line).

The big question is how many of each type will they need? It is probably too early to know for sure, so they will likely have conservative orders with options to buy extras.

To achieve a proper mix post-stage 2, they'd need to tender soon and start taking deliveries in a year or two or part of a multi-year procurement. It's not just about the mix. They have a lot of 40 footers that are going to age out.

Originally Posted by roger1818

And, OC Transpo can't commit to a multi year order without a funding commitment from counsel and counsel is probably leary to do that until the dust settles from the Confederation Line opening.

Fair. But I am just wondering why there hasn't been talk of a large buy. They can easily include various options and delivery flex. The whole point is to leverage a large order for big discounts, more consistent fleeting, and a better relationship with an OEM. Heck, this is partly why Metrolinx is taking over buying buses for most of the GTA. When you have to replace 600 buses, you have a real opportunity to get major OEMs actually fighting hard for your business. Council could easily authorize a structured multi-year well-optioned deal.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Fair. But I am just wondering why there hasn't been talk of a large buy. They can easily include various options and delivery flex. The whole point is to leverage a large order for big discounts, more consistent fleeting, and a better relationship with an OEM. Heck, this is partly why Metrolinx is taking over buying buses for most of the GTA. When you have to replace 600 buses, you have a real opportunity to get major OEMs actually fighting hard for your business. Council could easily authorize a structured multi-year well-optioned deal.

The 82 new buses (and presumably the 91 for next year) were procured through Metrolinx.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And it can be as simple as "this type of bus only works on urban routes so we'll deploy all our BEBs in central Ottawa and operate out of the St. Laurent bus depot only".

The St. Laurent depot serves more than just central Ottawa, but that kind of strategy could work.

I've actually done some grad work on electrification. The pace of progress is akin to computers in the mid-90s and smartphones in the early 2000s. We absolutely can get there in a half decade. Better thermal management, for example, limits range loss substantially. Which is why I said 200km at -40C today. In 5 years, we should expect that to be 300 - 400 km @ -40C as both battery chemistry and pack management improves. I find it hard to believe that buses regularly going to stations can't operate with even a 200km winter range when they have the opportunity to regularly top up.

Taking a line from the financial world, "past performance is not an indicator of future success." I remember talking to people (typically software folk) who believed Moore's law was a law of physics and could not be broken. Obviously the laws of physics show that Moore's law had to come to an end eventually (which it did around 2012). While there is certainly room for improvement with battery technology, it's rapid progress will certainly come to an end eventually.

Also. As JohnnyRenton pointed out they are already doing trials in Winnipeg. And I'd offer up Moscow as an example. I think you'll agree they have a similar climate. They're inducting hundreds of electric buses with the goal of going to only electric procurement by 2021:

https://eurasianetwork.eu/2018/05/17/moscow-will-receive-200-new-electric-buses-next-september/

Not sure about Moscow, but Winnipeg did it by restricting the buses to one route and having chargers at both terminates. We could also do something like that, but we would need to find a route that isn't going to change when Stage 1 and 2 are complete to ensure that we have historical data to compare the results to. That limits the options considerably.

Ottawa has a unique operational environment with both its climate, mix of urban and highly rural routes and operating speeds from urban to highway. This requires local trials. You can't just draw conclusions looking at TTC data.

In the short term, yes. But our "operational environment" is changing though. I don't see the value of testing under conditions that won't exist in the near future. The scientific method requires that you perform your tests under a controlled environment, and Ottawa will be anything but a controlled environment over the next decade.

I will say it again, I am not opposed to electric buses, but I don't want to get to the end of the study and draw conclusions based on an environment that no longer exists. If the technology was ready for full deployment and the proposal was for that, I would be more supportive, but a local, live study doesn't make sense. Let other cities that aren't in the middle of a massive transit infrastructure transition do the studies.

[TransitZilla]

Originally Posted by Multi-modal

I don't know the area much, but based off the fact they are planning an urban cross-section for Earl Armstrong between Albion and Bank, it seem inevitable they will expand the urban boundary to surround the Earl Armstrong.

I can't see there ever being residential development between Bowesville and Albion. It is right under the flight path.

[Multi-modal]

Originally Posted by bradnixon

I can't see there ever being residential development between Bowesville and Albion. It is right under the flight path.

Not between Bowesville and Albion, between Albion and Bank.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

To achieve a proper mix post-stage 2, they'd need to tender soon and start taking deliveries in a year or two or part of a multi-year procurement. It's not just about the mix. They have a lot of 40 footers that are going to age out.

I agree that you can't buy buses off the lot, but there isn't a 6 year lead time either.

According to OC Transpo, they currently has 320 Invero D40i and 175 Orion VII Hybrid buses for a total of for a total of 495 40' buses. They are the oldest and in greatest need of replacement. Because of a shortage of high capacity (HC) buses, many routes are using 40' buses that should be using HC buses. Once the Confederation Line opens, that shortage will disappear and they can put more HC buses on those routes, reducing the need for 40' buses. As a result, the number of 40' buses needed will be slightly reduced in the short term, so the 400 buses they plan to buy in the coming years should be enough for now.

When Stage 2 is completed, the need for HC buses will be further reduced (due to shorter routes) and they can retire the (older) D60LFs. When the (newer) D60LFRs reach end of life, they can be replaced by a mixture of 40' and articulated buses (depending on the needs at the time), but that likely won't be until 2030.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not sure about Moscow, but Winnipeg did it by restricting the buses to one route and having chargers at both terminates. We could also do something like that, but we would need to find a route that isn't going to change when Stage 1 and 2 are complete to ensure that we have historical data to compare the results to. That limits the options considerably.

And if you think ahead 5 or 6 years, when phase 2 of the LRT is done, Moodie Station (and looking even further ahead, Fallowfield), would be ideal for localized operations. You build charging stations into the layover area at Moodie so that all the local buses coming from Kanata and terminating at Moodie could charge for 5 or 10 minutes (about the same length of time the electric bus running to the airport would charge), before heading out again.

Local buses in Orleans serving the LRT could adopt the same strategy. The opportunities for service areas (not just individual routes), are absolutely there for a trial, and mid-sized operation of electric buses.