O-Train Line 1/3 [ Stage 2 | East Extension | Blair to Trim] | U/C

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I agree they may have to re-evaluate the scope of the project, but I don’t see how Montreal Road is a better terminus than Blair. At least Blair is a relatively built up area where you can run an errand while you transfer.

I anticipate if they build Montreal Rd., it’s a combination of wanting to push East and get the alignment properly started and protected, and to say they reached the very end of the Greenbelt.

I think this is one of the best case scenarios. I think there’s a high likelihood Confederation East gets canned entirely and relegated to Stage 3.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I anticipate if they build Montreal Rd., it’s a combination of wanting to push East and get the alignment properly started and protected, and to say they reached the very end of the Greenbelt.

I think this is one of the best case scenarios. I think there’s a high likelihood Confederation East gets canned entirely and relegated to Stage 3.

The allignment is a city-owned highway that doesn’t really need protecting. Blair was always designed to be a terminal station (the TMP at the design phase had a phase 2 to Baseline and phase 3 Trillium line upgrade). If they are going to delay the East extension, spending a bunch of money on a one-stop stubway to an empty field offers few advantages.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The allignment is a city-owned highway that doesn’t really need protecting. Blair was always designed to be a terminal station (the TMP at the design phase had a phase 2 to Baseline and phase 3 Trillium line upgrade). If they are going to delay the East extension, spending a bunch of money on a one-stop stubway to an empty field offers few advantages.

Fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I can’t see Stage 2 going through with no cuts.

[OCCheetos]

Of the $1.2 billion increase, around $600 million is because of "market inflation" while the other $700 million are from bundled projects. (from page 99)

A number of those bundles projects are being funded by the Province/Feds/Private sector.
Ellwood diamond by the feds
Limebank extension by the province
various pedestrian overpasses and tunnels by the private sector

According to this tweet the city only plans to borrow an additional $700 million which would cover the market inflation costs as well as $100 million of the bundled projects.

Off of $1.2 billion, that's better, but still not great.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Of the $1.2 billion increase, around $600 million is because of "market inflation" while the other $700 million are from bundled projects. (from page 99)

A number of those bundles projects are being funded by the Province/Feds/Private sector.
Ellwood diamond by the feds
Limebank extension by the province
various pedestrian overpasses and tunnels by the private sector

According to this tweet the city only plans to borrow an additional $700 million which would cover the market inflation costs as well as $100 million of the bundled projects.

Off of $1.2 billion, that's better, but still not great.

How the hell is “market inflation” that high? Construction inflation in Ottawa is 3.6%.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180523/t001c-eng.htm

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How the hell is “market inflation” that high? Construction inflation in Ottawa is 3.6%.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180523/t001c-eng.htm

market "pressures", inflation, to be honest I don't know what the difference is.

[CanadaGoose]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

market "pressures", inflation, to be honest I don't know what the difference is.

Depends on the specific items they are buying for the construction. The inflation figure assumes a certain basket of items (typically in a certain type of construction).

Considering the project involves train tracks, signal systems and not concrete and windows like a high rise, this number cant be an accurate predictor.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The allignment is a city-owned highway that doesn’t really need protecting. Blair was always designed to be a terminal station (the TMP at the design phase had a phase 2 to Baseline and phase 3 Trillium line upgrade). If they are going to delay the East extension, spending a bunch of money on a one-stop stubway to an empty field offers few advantages.

I agree with you on this one. They will either extend the line to Orleans or keep it a Blair. A 3 km extension is not worth the cost of a whole new bus transfer station. Besides, with the transit overpass, the approach to/from Blair is very fast by bus. The approach to Montreal Rd. Station would be slower.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How the hell is “market inflation” that high? Construction inflation in Ottawa is 3.6%.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180523/t001c-eng.htm

My guess is the city delibritely underestimated the orginal cost so they could get some federal and provincial funding otherwise they wouldnt get the 1 billion from the feds and the province if eveyone knew how expensive it really was.

[waterloowarrior]

From the report:

Market Pricing Sensitivity

More recent LRT projects under tender in Canada have also experienced a significant market shift that have resulted in construction costs coming in higher than early estimates.

Some of the possible factors driving this change in market pricing include:

 LRT market trends.

Several major LRT projects under construction across Canada, including Stage 1 Confederation Line, are experiencing significant issues.

Among the troubled LRT projects are Waterloo ION, Eglinton Crosstown, and Edmonton LRT, all of which are struggling with challenges that were unanticipated but now must be faced by the P3 bidder within a fixed-price. The marketplace is responding with more conservative pricing and schedules overall. On one level this is to be expected and is a good thing—the market is responding as markets should.

However, it does shift the basis on which the original project estimates were set.

 Access to labour and specialized service providers.

Given increased level of market activity for civil construction, particularly rail projects, increased demand for resources and skilled trades leads to shortages and pressures on total labour costs. Similarly, demand for common contractors across LRT projects across Canada, and specifically in Ontario, could be further attributing to the labour cost pressure.

There are also a large number of procurements awarded, expected or in market competing for resources such as Metrolinx’s Regional Express Rail (RER), Finch West LRT, Hurontario LRT and Hamilton LRT and CDPQ’s Infra Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) in Montreal. Significant new projects in Toronto including the Scarborough Subway, York-Yonge Subway and Downtown Relief Line projects are expected by the market. All of these projects are creating capacity issues and driving up costs.

 Cost of materials.

Uncertainty regarding vital commodities driven by international trade and tariff issues is creating upward pressure on contingencies. Increased demand for materials, such as steel, combined with changing economic conditions and recent tariffs is showing up in bid pricing when compared to previous estimates
and unit costing.

Another related factor is that general market interest may be recently reduced due to changes in the market in view of the risk of civil projects, as projects move to completion and market fatigue/competition with other significant more recent procurements such as Metrolinx’s Regional Express Rail (RER) and CDPQ’s Infra Réseau Électrique Métropolitain (REM) in Montreal, which was recently awarded.

[acottawa]

How could staff be unaware of these trends when they made their presentation to Council two years ago?

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How could staff be unaware of these trends when they made their presentation to Council two years ago?

I'm sure they were aware they just dont want to admit it.

[J.OT13]

Slide 100 of the presentation shows the cost per kilometer of several projects across Canada. Looks like the Caisse got a sweet 🞵🞵🞵 deal on the REM. Just about the same price per kilometer as Stage 2 in Ottawa however, we have to take into consideration that a large portion of our Stage 2 includes the single track diesel choo-choo that is Trillium and no new (Algonquin is partially built and so not all new) underground stations.

Montreal is getting direct airport to downtown service, massive fully enclosed stations with platform barriers, 4 deep tunnel stations, 5 elevated stations. They are using some existing rights of ways, just like us, including the Mount Royal Tunnel.

Toronto is getting royally screwed by the bidding process. Eglinton was twice the price of Confederation I and even the Finch West tramway is more expensive than Stage 2 and the REM.

https://www.stage2lrt.ca/wp-content/uplo...it-Project_Tech-Briefing_20190222_EN.pdf

[J.OT13]

Reading through the station descriptions, I wanted to critic the location and lay-out of each. I won't go into the design aesthetics; though I was initially disappointed that they value-engineered the design language of Stage 1, I understand that some sacrifices need to be made in order to expand the system. That might be how the winning consortium was able to get a price, not within budget, but within "affordability".

This is based off the document describing each station. In parentheses, I've indicated my preferred name for the station, should it be different from the presentation.

https://app05.ottawa.ca/sirepub/cache/2/03f5y2hirvcglz23htbtbodt/56880702232019112752335.PDF

Trim: I'm not sure I fully understand, but they are shifting Trim Road east of the park-and-ride? I would like to see a general plan of the area to wrap my head around it. Beyond that, I'm disappointed they didn't include a fare-paid area for the bus loop. I also don't understand why they didn't include a pedestrian bridge to the north side of the highway; though most of the ridership will come from transfers and the park-and-ride, the north side would provide all walk-in traffic, including La Cité's trades campus and Petrie's Landing. Hoping the park-and-ride is consolidated within a parking garage in order to redevelop the rest, but no specifics on that.

Place d'Orleans: This one is well designed in terms of functionality. The second fare-paid pedestrian bridge looks a little out of place, but will be appreciated by those transferring I'm sure.

Orleans Boulevard (Convent Glen) and Jeanne d'Arc: I wish the bus stops would be integrated with the station entrances instead of 150 feet away.

Montreal (Beacon Hill): That underpass sorely needed some work and this station will transform it. I'm glad the City decided to realign the station to be in the median instead of to the north side. Liking what they proposed here. Even love the look of the entrances. Very big city. I do wonder what that random glass wall just outside the entrance is for (page 46 of the presentation, not the station description document).

[Mikeed]

Two thoughts on the technical briefing.

The stations do seem to be a lot simpler in design, but I'd rather have a more extensive network then great stations. That said I'm surprised they seem to be abandoning the "open mouth" style design of the stations. Only Lincoln Fields has that style entrance.

I would like to see this design element brought into more stations as it has become the signature Otrain style element.

Secondly, I would be curious to what kind of money savings is coming from Bayshore Station as it is by far the most "rail ready" station on the Transitway network, and the East West Consortium appears to be recycling almost all of it.

I still believe in the bus rapid transit conversion to metro concept.

[Mikeed]

What's the plan for the intersection at Trim Rd?

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Mikeed

What's the plan for the intersection at Trim Rd?

[J.OT13]

WOW! That is terrible!! Creating that stupid intersection at Cardinal Creek Park already made it unnecessarily confusing with a Trim/Trim intersection, but this will make it even worse. Why not built the station slightly east to avoid this or implement a design like Orleans Boulevard and Jeanne d'Arc, which would have provided better connectivity with the north side? Oh right, to avoid the cost of grade separation.

[kevinbottawa]

Originally Posted by [B

Montreal (Beacon Hill)[/B]: That underpass sorely needed some work and this station will transform it. I'm glad the City decided to realign the station to be in the median instead of to the north side. Liking what they proposed here. Even love the look of the entrances. Very big city. I do wonder what that random glass wall just outside the entrance is for (page 46 of the presentation, not the station description document).

I really like Montreal Station. The station entrance in the underpass reminds me of Yorkdale Station. Very "big city" as you said.

[Acajack]

Has a station at Jasmine Crescent been ruled out entirely? I can't find any mention of it in the past year or more.