Calgary International Airport II

[zahav]

Lots of minor frequency cuts on other AC Express routes too, but generally replacing with higher capacity Q400s so pax #s won't be affected, but yes movement-wise might make a difference, but nothing major

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Johnny Aussie]

Crunched 2018 to 2019 comparative

Overall decrease from approx 117 daily to 98 daily.

First time in ages AC has been below 100 ops per day.

2019 will see 46 mainline 1 rouge and 51 jazz per day
2018 had 44 mainline 2 rouge 54 jazz and 17 Georgian

Approximate based on frequencies per week.

[hollywoodcory]

Not sure if mentioned here yet, but AM has extended it's seasonal run until September 19, previously only until Sep. 2.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Crunched 2018 to 2019 comparative

Overall decrease from approx 117 daily to 98 daily.

First time in ages AC has been below 100 ops per day.

2019 will see 46 mainline 1 rouge and 51 jazz per day
2018 had 44 mainline 2 rouge 54 jazz and 17 Georgian

Approximate based on frequencies per week.

Is the decrease related to the economy or AC generally scaling back in YYC?

[msmariner]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Is the decrease related to the economy or AC generally scaling back in YYC?

Mostly due to AC ending their contract with Air Georgian. They’ve taken over the routes with with much larger DH3 or Q400’s. Also switching to mainline on some routes. So while less aircraft are used the amount of available seats hasn’t changed much

[suburbia]

Woah - even before Calgary ever saw one, Airbus has scrapped the A380!

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47231504

Airbus said last deliveries of the world's largest passenger aircraft, which cost about $25bn (£19.4bn) to develop, would be made in 2021.

The decision comes after Emirates, the largest A380 customer, cut its order.

The A380 faced fierce competition from smaller, more efficient aircraft and has never made a profit.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Is the decrease related to the economy or AC generally scaling back in YYC?

AC is just holding on to what it has at YYC. AC has been shrinking at YYC over the last decade....WS keeps tightening the screws making it difficult for anyone else to expand here. I’m sure they’re very pleased with the facts set out below.

Comparing to 10 years ago AC intl ops had 23 international flights per week (non-US) of which 19 were long haul. There was more sun flying back then. NRT was (re-)launched in 2010.
Transborder 2009 had 15 daily flights of which 7 were mainline.

Summer 2019 YYC will have 22 international (non-US) flights per week (21 long-haul) and only 11 daily transborder of which only 3 are mainline.

Even domestic flights have shrunk from 741 per week in summer 2009 to 585 per week in summer 2019.

Overall since 2009 AC at YYC has shrunk from about 125 flights per day to under 100 this year.

[Johnny Aussie]

Looks like Sunwing is reducing its Western Canada sunflights this summer.

They will no longer offer flights to CUN or PVR.

In Alberta they will have one weekly YEG-YYC-SJD and one weekly YEG-YYC-VRA

Other sun flights will resume in the fall.

More Westjet pressure perhaps.

Transat will still have its weekly YEG-YYC-CUN and YYC-PVR flights this summer.

[MalcolmTucker]

More pressure or is it more capacity needs from their European partner?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

More pressure or is it more capacity needs from their European partner?

I would say the continuous growth of Westjet is starting to put pressure on some carriers. Sun destination flying is obviously a smaller market in summer. But this is the first summer in years Sunwing won't have any flights from YYC or YEG to CUN or PVR.

[YYCFlier]

WestJet's presence will continue to push YYC towards a fortress hub. No one else is really growing; they are either maintaining or reducing.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Woah - even before Calgary ever saw one, Airbus has scrapped the A380!

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47231504

We were talking about this a while back on the Canada airports thread.

I believe my exact words were "the A380 is dead", and that "the A380Plus enhancement won't sell planes."

Now it's official.

[thenoflyzone]

Found it.

Aug, 2017

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=153826&page=243

Incredible to think that in the beginning, Airbus was thinking it could sell 1,200 A380s. They were massively wrong.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

WestJet's presence will continue to push YYC towards a fortress hub. No one else is really growing; they are either maintaining or reducing.

That’s the nature of hubs in smaller markets.

We’ve seen what AC has done.

We will see what Flair will do.

Transat down to a token presence. Possibly pushed out further.

Some US carriers are slowly adding back capacity that had been stripped away.
UA has basically been the same for years other than IAH where WS has pushed UA back a bit (and AC too)
AA returning some DFW seats and adding some to ORD but PHX gone (WS effect)
AS has been stagnant
F9 doesn’t seem to be doing anything here really
DL’s recent moves appear to be in line with the upcoming WS ties.

International side we know BA is struggling, HU is leaving, KL flip flopping aircraft types. Edelweiss seems to be ok with its two weekly flight but Condor is adding a weekly frequency though!

CMA has even quietly dropped Lloydminster.

[BlaineN]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Woah - even before Calgary ever saw one, Airbus has scrapped the A380!

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47231504

I think many were expecting it. With Emirates as the only airline interested and others cancelling orders it was inevitable. Emirates was its only hope.

A very cool aircraft, but not very flexible. The A350, 787, and the new 777X pretty much killed it off.

[BlaineN]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

WestJet's presence will continue to push YYC towards a fortress hub. No one else is really growing; they are either maintaining or reducing.

True, but if WestJet wasn't around we wouldn't be getting any more flights than we have now, possibly more flights from other airlines, but not more flights in total, and probably less.

At least with WestJet, we are a main hub and are able to take advantage of Westjet's connection traffic. Without them AC might still be winding things back and we could be looking at a lot of connecting flights through YVR. It's not likely we'd have direct flights to places like Atlanta or Nashville, definitely not Paris.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by BlaineN

True, but if WestJet wasn't around we wouldn't be getting any more flights than we have now, possibly more flights from other airlines, but not more flights in total, and probably less.

At least with WestJet, we are a main hub and are able to take advantage of Westjet's connection traffic. Without them AC might still be winding things back and we could be looking at a lot of connecting flights through YVR. It's not likely we'd have direct flights to places like Atlanta or Nashville, definitely not Paris.

That, of course, is the upside.

TS couldn't make CDG work even as a stopover on a once weekly from YVR but with the possibility of feed from all over the west it may work. DUB was also tried with Zoom but again... without Westjet it is likely many of the routes you mention and more wouldn't be possible.

[casper]

Originally Posted by BlaineN

True, but if WestJet wasn't around we wouldn't be getting any more flights than we have now, possibly more flights from other airlines, but not more flights in total, and probably less.

At least with WestJet, we are a main hub and are able to take advantage of Westjet's connection traffic. Without them AC might still be winding things back and we could be looking at a lot of connecting flights through YVR. It's not likely we'd have direct flights to places like Atlanta or Nashville, definitely not Paris.

I think most people are reading more into Paris than is reasonable.

Paris serves the same purpose as Frankfurt for AC. It is basically the connecting airport for onward flights into Europe and beyond.

[YYCFlier]

I'm not entirely upset YYC is turning into a fortress hub - it has benefits and drawbacks for sure. I think AC would expand more here if not for WS, but we will always be second fiddle to YVR for AC, and WS has the opposite (YVR is their tertiary hub by a large margin). AC claims YYC as a hub and it's somewhere between "small hub" and "large focus city".

AC typically adds LHR as their first international destination to growing airports (YOW has it year round, they did try with YEG but no dice). Then they add FRA to route traffic via Lufthansa (YOW seasonal). NRT is a mostly tourism because I don't think AC has a strong relationship with ANA but they could route a lot through HND/NRT if they wanted. It's actually geographically positioned well.

YYC blows the socks off similarly sized markets for passenger traffic. At present, we are the highest transiting airport in Canada with over 34% of traffic transiting and only 66% O&D. That will probably continue to grow as WS continues to build YYC as their primary hub. We continue to nip at the heels of YUL with half the population.

I don't see CDG as a transiting airport for two reasons: 1) because AMS is so much better and has service in place year round from KLM, and 2) because WS has no JV with Air France to do so. I think CDG is primarily a leisure route with some light business travel for western Canadians; it will compete directly with the routes out of YVR, as will DUB. The WS 789s look much more comfortable in Y to me given some preferred seats.

Asia will have to wait a little. I'm hopeful AC will retain NRT with a 788/789 in 2020, but if it's gone, WS will eventually fill that with NRT, HND, or possible ICN (JV with Korean). Most of Asia traffic will still likely be YVR though. I don't see WS putting any Europe traffic in YVR, but it will grow YYZ for sure eventually putting all 763s on YYZ traffic to Europe at least in summer. I can't really see any other airline investing in ex-Asia here unless another Chinese carrier is willing to give it a go. Asia is also a bloodbath given all the capacity China is bringing on.