Rural Commuter Rail

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

Even take a look at what VIA plans on doing with plans for thier own ROW which proves sharing track is a bad idea since it reduces reliabilty of the service. Unless Potvin can prove he can build his own ROW for the whole 400km that doesn't interfere with the city's LRT expansion plans then we have every right to demand proof of whatever he claims on building is good for Ottawa. So far Potvin has not provided it.

Sharing tracks with fixed-schedule passenger trains is much different than having to share it with unscheduled freight. It would be up to MOOSE and VIA to work out the scheduling between trains and hope that VIA's trains don't get held up too much by freight on their way to Ottawa (there should be no reason for a MOOSE train to be regularly delayed...)

Otherwise, freight in the NCR is very limited and wouldn't present any problem(s).

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

You want to use the POW bridge knowing the fact that the city of Ottawa intends on using the bridge to extend LRT into Gatineau. The Gatineau extension is in the city of Ottawa's 2013 transportation master plan ultimate network that the city is slowly following. Any use of the bridge by MOOSE would prevent Ottawa from providing frequent LRT service on it and would hurt urban residents. So again you need to provide proof what advantage FOR URBAN residents does the MOOSE plan have.

The city of Ottawa has proposed extending the line into Gatineau since it was first created almost 20 years ago (hence why they have a certificate of fitness, but more on that later..) should that invalidate any other proposal to use the bridge? Even then, MOOSE has existed since 2011 a few years before the 2013 plan.
As for the master plan... the city is only loosely following that plan at this point. Neither the Kanata nor the Barrahven LRT extensions are on that plan, there's the Carling LRT which we've heard nothing about, and so far no concrete steps have been made towards extending the line into Gatineau. Gatineau itself has proposed using the bridge for their LRT, likely with little input from the City of Ottawa (at least initially). Anyway, it's not off limits to propose alternate uses for the bridge.

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/283-r-2007


That is the city of Ottawa Capital Railway certificate of fitness.
I hope everyone read this becuase it doesn't say anywhere they must provide service to Quebec like MOOSE is trying to insist but it does say that the city is serving 5 stations from Greenboro to Bayview which obviously MOOSE trains would make it harder to serve if they are allowed to use the tracks.

Do you know why the City of Ottawa has a certificate of fitness to begin with? Because they intend(ed) to have their rail line cross provincial boundaries. No they aren't obligated to provide service across the river, but it's not wrong to question why the city has the certificate but hasn't progressed on crossing the river in nearly 20 years.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

And this leads into some of the main criticisms I have of the project.

Nothing about the vision indicates that it will be some superb, modern, passenger experience. It is some used diesel locomotives and bilevel coaches with some fancy looking bus shelters that look vaguely reminiscent of Central Station in Ottawa. When I look at Moose, I don't see the Porter of commuter rail. I don't see fast, comfortable, modern trains. I don't see a network where getting to all the major employment areas in Ottawa is even easy. It looks like the first iteration of the O-Train back in 2001.

And even then, you can make the train stations like Porter lounges. You could use sleek, new, Euro styled DMUs. The trains could be fitted with ultra-fast wifi, and stations could have the finest coffee in the NCR. You could basically turn commuter rail into something similar to UP Express in Toronto.

That is kind of what MOOSE is proposing though? They've expressed their interest in using new DMUs that would be equipped with WiFi and even have an on-board cafe (similar to what they have in BC, apparently).
I don't know if you've read it yet, but MOOSE has an entire document on their concept for their stations. If done right, I think they would be perfectly fine as stations for regional areas.
They apparently have students at uOttawa currently working on concepts for stations, so maybe we'll see more in the relatively near future.

The problem with the O-Train going over to Gatineau is that it doesn't actually serve any meaningful employment centres or neighborhoods to make it worthwhile. It totally skirts around the downtown area and means that anyone going to work there would have to transfer to a bus in order to get anywhere meaningful. If you work in Gatineau, or are commuting to Ottawa, a bus would still be a better option even with the O-Train extended across.

There's a track that leads to what used to be a Domtar(?) building which is now becoming part of the Zibi developments. A station could be build there that would be within walking distance of Terasses and could integrate well with Zibi. It'd be much better than the less-than-ideal situation on Booth street...

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Allandale25

For 2., I asked you to explain the conflict between your plan and the City of Ottawa Stage 2 plan and I don't think you ever got back to me.

I can only imagine how far along in the procurement phase the City will be before there is any further update from the courts.

I don't think your map is correct. It's already been established that what MOOSE calls Green(s)boro is what the rest of us call Mooney's Bay.

The blue/teal line would run from Nepean and then up the VIA line and continue all the way to Tremblay (and I guess Ottawa would get its own "Union" station) and then eventually continue down the VIA line to Alexandria.

The purple line would run up from Barrhaven on the VIA line to Ellwood, as would the red line (but from the Nepean direction). A new connector track would need to be built between the VIA line and the Trillium Line in the North West corner, but there is enough space there and there will be even after the grade separation at Ellwood is complete (the city is leaving enough space for a freight crossing).

[JohnnyRenton]

@JosephPotvin

I have a few more questions. But I am not going to ask about technical details. Instead, I want to ask from the perspective of a potential home buyer, a councillor or government official in one of the communities you want to serve, as someone from Ottawa, and as an developer. And I don't want jargon or academic studies cited. I am looking for clear, concise, easy to understand answers about what your proposing.

1. I am looking to buy a house in Bristol. I have chosen that location because of its cheap real estate and I have heard that there will be commuter rail service. I have heard that this will be a new concept, something called property powered rail, and that the promise is that ridership wont matter because it is being funded by increases in property values. So how does that work? Am I paying an additional tax for this service? Is it coming through increased property taxes? Do I pay a few to a homeowners association? Is it a percentage of property value increases? What happens if property values don't increase, does the service disappear? In short, how much does it actually cost me (outside of the fares), and how am I paying for it?

2. It is a few years earlier. I am a councillor in Bristol and we are watching you give your presentation. Lots of great visuals and all kinds of promises of development and increased property values. But I am worried that this service is going to increase the cost of living in the community (people like moving there because its so cheap). And more importantly, I want to know what it will cost the town? Are the citizens paying for the service directly? Or is the town paying for it through our taxes? is it a flat fee? Is it variable based on property assessment increases? Will existing citizens be hit with a new charge/tax? In short, how do I explain how the town will be paying for the service to its citizens?

3. I live in Ottawa. Right now I live in a small apartment in Sandy Hill but I am looking to buy a condo near the Carling or proposed Gladstone O-Train station. I know the city has plans to upgrade the line in the next 5 years and that is a huge selling point as the LRT makes getting around the city, and to the airport, much easier. But, I have heard that there is a proposal to run a commuter rail service on the line as well. From the sounds of it, it means that the planned service and frequency levels wont be achieved because the commuter trains will impact LRT operations greatly. Do I have anything to worry about? Will I still be able to get the planned service upgrades, even if Moose operates on the line? Or should I just look for a different location, one that will have the kind of frequency I am looking for? In short, should I still support Moose because my reason for picking a condo on the Trillium line wont be impacted, or should I move elsewhere because Moose's value to the city is greater than that of what a fully modernized and upgraded Trillium line would be? Why should people from Ottawa support Moose when it appears to be more detrimental to them than helpful?

4. I am a developer working in the Arnprior area. For decades the formula for success has been the same, find cheap land in municipalities with low property taxes and build bog standard suburban housing. Housing that working class people can afford. Now, there is a proposal for commuter rail, and it is largely being funded through property value increases (so it sounds like). This concerns me a bit because if housing prices go up that is going to affect my current market. I could look for cheap land in other municipalities and continue building the type of housing for the type of people I have always built. Or, I could start to target a new demographic. But how much more expensive will housing be? Will their property taxes increase right? How much more will someone have to pay for a home in 3, 5, or 10 years? How do I market this to buyers of new homes? In short, what changes will this bring to the real estate market, and are you asking anything of developers to make this project happen, or will it be funded with or without us?

I was going to do one for investors but that one is pretty simple. If you are spending almost $1 billion on this project, what growth rate for these towns is needed for me to get any kind of a return on my investment?

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Sharing tracks with fixed-schedule passenger trains is much different than having to share it with unscheduled freight. It would be up to MOOSE and VIA to work out the scheduling between trains and hope that VIA's trains don't get held up too much by freight on their way to Ottawa (there should be no reason for a MOOSE train to be regularly delayed...)

Otherwise, freight in the NCR is very limited and wouldn't present any problem(s).


The city of Ottawa has proposed extending the line into Gatineau since it was first created almost 20 years ago (hence why they have a certificate of fitness, but more on that later..) should that invalidate any other proposal to use the bridge? Even then, MOOSE has existed since 2011 a few years before the 2013 plan.
As for the master plan... the city is only loosely following that plan at this point. Neither the Kanata nor the Barrahven LRT extensions are on that plan, there's the Carling LRT which we've heard nothing about, and so far no concrete steps have been made towards extending the line into Gatineau. Gatineau itself has proposed using the bridge for their LRT, likely with little input from the City of Ottawa (at least initially). Anyway, it's not off limits to propose alternate uses for the bridge.




Do you know why the City of Ottawa has a certificate of fitness to begin with? Because they intend(ed) to have their rail line cross provincial boundaries. No they aren't obligated to provide service across the river, but it's not wrong to question why the city has the certificate but hasn't progressed on crossing the river in nearly 20 years.

https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/default/files/documents/tmp_map_3_en.pdf

You obvioulsy haven't looked at the ultimate network of the 2013 transportation master the extension to cdn tire centre in Kanata is there as is the extension to Barrhaven.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-lrt-stage-2-gatineau-1.4016013

There it shows the Mayor gets the green light to talk to Gatineau about extending LRT there so you can be sure they are discussing it, thats why the city is not going to put the bridge up for sale and for sure that is why they don't want MOOSE to use it.

So your are wrong on both counts.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

That is kind of what MOOSE is proposing though? They've expressed their interest in using new DMUs that would be equipped with WiFi and even have an on-board cafe (similar to what they have in BC, apparently).
I don't know if you've read it yet, but MOOSE has an entire document on their concept for their stations. If done right, I think they would be perfectly fine as stations for regional areas.
They apparently have students at uOttawa currently working on concepts for stations, so maybe we'll see more in the relatively near future.


There's a track that leads to what used to be a Domtar(?) building which is now becoming part of the Zibi developments. A station could be build there that would be within walking distance of Terasses and could integrate well with Zibi. It'd be much better than the less-than-ideal situation on Booth street...

I guess it is a matter of taste, but I have seen the documents and that is why they I referred to them as fancy bus stops.

As far as the line heading into the Domtar, it could probably still be utilized. But how useful, or utilized would it be? For someone living in Gatineau, but working in Ottawa, I cant see them using it, unless their final destination is on the Trillium line. Otherwise you have to take a bus to central part of Gatineau, take the Trillium line to Bayview, and then transfer again. Your already on a bus that is likely going across the river. Staying on it saves two transfers and the extra travel time from the longer distance of the LRT line. For people living in Ottawa, it might be okay since you could likely get to the Trillium line via bus or Confederation Line, and just have one transfer (or none if you live right by a Trillium Line station). But if you are coming from the east, and work at the Portage complex, will it be faster to take the LRT all the way to Bayview, transfer there, and then do a bit of a backtrack to a Portage stop, versus getting off at Rideau and taking a STO bus instead?

Using the POW bridge for LRT is the cheap option. But its not a great option. If I was living in Old Hull again, I would never use an LRT line that used the POW bridge, unless I was in the mood for sightseeing, or was heading out to an area west of Bayview, which would be the minority of trips. STO buses, or walking for that matter, would still be a faster option.

Edit: There is also a scenario where the LRT line splits once it crosses the POW bridge into Quebec, with a line going to a terminus at the old Domtar building, and one heading to Tache and along the current busway. But for a lot of reasons this isn't a great solution either.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/default/files/documents/tmp_map_3_en.pdf

You obvioulsy haven't looked at the ultimate network of the 2013 transportation master the extension to cdn tire centre in Kanata is there as is the extension to Barrhaven.

I was thinking of the wrong map, my bad. Still, what about the Carling LRT? And the TMP outlines the plan between 2013 and 2031, and it's only 2018. Anyway, again that doesn't automatically invalidate any alternative or collaborative proposals.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-lrt-stage-2-gatineau-1.4016013

There it shows the Mayor gets the green light to talk to Gatineau about extending LRT there so you can be sure they are discussing it, thats why the city is not going to put the bridge up for sale and for sure that is why they don't want MOOSE to use it.

Right, but where's the announcement of an actual plan? Is Ottawa planning to extend the Trillium Line? Doesn't sound like it right now. Is Gatineau going to bring their LRT across the bridge? Maybe, but we won't see their study for several years yet. As for Gatineau, they seem to be willing to tackle the challenge of sending LRT across the Alexandra Bridge, so I don't think some active rail service on the PoW bridge would be a huge issue in comparison.

So your are wrong on both counts.

Both? I'm sure I had more than just two points.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

I was thinking of the wrong map, my bad. Still, what about the Carling LRT? And the TMP outlines the plan between 2013 and 2031, and it's only 2018. Anyway, again that doesn't automatically invalidate any alternative or collaborative proposals.



Right, but where's the announcement of an actual plan? Is Ottawa planning to extend the Trillium Line? Doesn't sound like it right now. Is Gatineau going to bring their LRT across the bridge? Maybe, but we won't see their study for several years yet. As for Gatineau, they seem to be willing to tackle the challenge of sending LRT across the Alexandra Bridge, so I don't think some active rail service on the PoW bridge would be a huge issue in comparison.


Both? I'm sure I had more than just two points.

Im not sure about VIA which is why I didn't include them and we will know what will happen with the POW bridge when Gatineau completes its study in 2020.

Carling LRT looks like its being pushed back since the the other extensions plus the Baseline BRT have been pushed to a higher priority. Im sure once the Baseline BRT is complete they will have a better idea on how to impliment LRT on Carling. My preference for LRT on Carling is that it should be elevated the whole distance until it reaches Lincoln Fields station and Carling Station.

Jim Watson wants the city of Gatineu and the Quebec provincial government along with the feds to pay for any crossing using the POW Bridge. Since I'm a Gatineau resident myself I have no problem paying for it since it would mean less congestion downtown so I can't wait for the Gatineau LRT construction to start.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Lashing out at randos on Internet forums is definitely a habit of successful entrepreneurs that are really busy and have no free time on their hands.

Hey. The more time he spends on here, the less time he has to troll the City.

Like I've always maintained, Potvin doesn't have the ability to deliver on his harebrained scheme. Dude has been shilling this for nearly a decade. And can't even convince an investor to fully fund an extensive feasibility study. That is telling.

The only real danger is that someone with actual resources gets the same idea. Or that Potvin's trolling delays or derails (no pun intended) actual City plans.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Like I've always maintained, Potvin doesn't have the ability to deliver on his harebrained scheme. Dude has been shilling this for nearly a decade. And can't even convince an investor to fully fund an extensive feasibility study. That is telling.

If people are not buying what your selling, it is time to go back to the drawing board.

I also think part of the problem is that it's being sold as a product. Commuter rail/transit doesn't really work that way, in Canada at least. The public wants to have input and a say. Some people will recommend wholesale network plans (whether they are qualified or not), and other people just want to make sure stations have good security.

Probably one of the best moves the project could make, if Moose actually wants to try to make its plan real, and not just engage in litigation, is go on a tour and talk to people, and conduct surveys, and find out what people think about Moose, and commuter rail in general. And don't just go out and sell it, ask people pointed questions to figure out how many would actually use the service, how many people would move to a Moose linked community, what would it take to get them on a train, what would they pay for it, etc, etc. And don't go all Lyle Lanely and try smooth talking every contradictory opinion but actually listen to people.

It is also important not to lose sight of the fact that this is, first and foremost, a real estate venture. The details of the rail network are only important in so much as it just needs to sell homes. Moose either needs to talk faster so that people don't think about the details too much, or go the other directions and listen to what people have to say.

[Allandale25]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

I don't think your map is correct. It's already been established that what MOOSE calls Green(s)boro is what the rest of us call Mooney's Bay.

The blue/teal line would run from Nepean and then up the VIA line and continue all the way to Tremblay (and I guess Ottawa would get its own "Union" station) and then eventually continue down the VIA line to Alexandria.

The purple line would run up from Barrhaven on the VIA line to Ellwood, as would the red line (but from the Nepean direction). A new connector track would need to be built between the VIA line and the Trillium Line in the North West corner, but there is enough space there and there will be even after the grade separation at Ellwood is complete (the city is leaving enough space for a freight crossing).

Thanks for the feedback. I'll work on revising it. This would be a lot easier if Moose would just use an actual Google Map to show their intended routes instead of the abstract and not to scale versions they've put out so far. Unless there's something out there I've missed.

[milomilo]

From the other side of the country I just want to say this is a great thread to read, as is the VIA thread. You're doing a great job of looking at the details and questioning the credibility of what is being proposed.

Here in Calgary, we have the occasional offer of private funding for passenger rail, most recently to Banff. I'm usually skeptical the proposals are feasible at the price they say, but they haven't gone far enough to prove either way. There is a lot more flesh on the bones of this Moose proposal, so it is quite revealing to see how feasible a private investment in commuter rail truly would be.

[Kitchissippi]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

I also think part of the problem is that it's being sold as a product. Commuter rail/transit doesn't really work that way, in Canada at least. The public wants to have input and a say.
<snip>

It's not even a product. Moose is based a theoretical concept that requires a lifestyle change and a shift in the taxation paradigm. It's a lot to ask from buyers, and those who might be attracted to that type of dense community living already have plenty of choices within the current urban and suburban marketplace, and plenty more in the future TOD projects along the LRT lines. Heck we're even quibbling over how LeBreton can attract enough residents over a couple of decades.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

It's not even a product. Moose is based a theoretical concept that requires a lifestyle change and a shift in the taxation paradigm. It's a lot to ask from buyers, and those who might be attracted to that type of dense community living already have plenty of choices within the current urban and suburban marketplace, and plenty more in the future TOD projects along the LRT lines. Heck we're even quibbling over how LeBreton can attract enough residents over a couple of decades.

And that is why I would love to see some surveys and research done into what people think of the concept, What kind of people would it attract (would it attract people who would have chosen Barrhaven or Kanata, or is it primarily people who would have chosen the exurbs anywhere)? What kind of a premium/fee/tax would they be willing to pay for the Moose service? How many would even factor in, and ultimately use, commuter rail? Would it attract more people if it was a better network design?

Maybe product wasn't the right word, though it is a product in the same way a gated community is a lifestyle product. The point I was really trying to hit on is that it is being proposed largely in isolation of any public input. It might be privately funded, but it has large implications on the public and how towns and municipalities will develop. And how a potentially vital transportation network will function. And how the region will grow.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. If this was being proposed by a public agency using public money I would be 20 times more critical of the project. And part of the reason I think it would be fascinating to consult with the public and do surveys and research is that I suspect most buyers purchasing homes in the exurbs, or who might consider it, wouldn't give a flying fig about whether it was connected via commuter rail, and would probably avoid areas with the service if it was going to potentially cost them more in taxes or fees.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

I don't disagree with what you are saying. If this was being proposed by a public agency using public money I would be 20 times more critical of the project. And part of the reason I think it would be fascinating to consult with the public and do surveys and research is that I suspect most buyers purchasing homes in the exurbs, or who might consider it, wouldn't give a flying fig about whether it was connected via commuter rail, and would probably avoid areas with the service if it was going to potentially cost them more in taxes or fees.

They have avoided any attempt to validate the business model, possibly because they know full well what the results would be.

People moving to exurbs are usually looking for lower density housing or suburban housing at a lower price or with lower taxes than is available in established suburbs.

[JohnnyRenton]

Originally Posted by acottawa

They have avoided any attempt to validate the business model, possibly because they know full well what the results would be.

People moving to exurbs are usually looking for lower density housing or suburban housing at a lower price or with lower taxes than is available in established suburbs.

Exactly. The exurbs are not fueled my their own, independent economies. They exist because they are cheap. Some places do serve as semi-regional centres for the surrounding agricultural, and other industries that may exist in the area. But the only reason someone would live in Arnprior and commute to Ottawa is because it is cheap. And as soon as real estate prices go up, that competitive advantage is over.

There are of course some exceptions. Wakefield comes to mind, because it has a wonderful natural setting that people love and desire. People will pay for that.

It would be interesting if someone with a background in economics could run a model on Moose's plan. When you consider the $1 billion initial investment, and the yearly operating costs (I believe someone said it was $200 million), you must need a truly staggering amount of growth and property value increase in order for it to work. Especially when you consider all the side effects that will be caused as real estate prices increase. I feel like the numbers would just be totally bonkers.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Allandale25

Thanks for the feedback. I'll work on revising it. This would be a lot easier if Moose would just use an actual Google Map to show their intended routes instead of the abstract and not to scale versions they've put out so far. Unless there's something out there I've missed.

It would indeed be nice if MOOSE put some more detailed maps out themselves, but I did put together this google map of their system a while back. I guess I could update it with Gatineau's LRT plan at some point..

[Charles5]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

It would be interesting if someone with a background in economics could run a model on Moose's plan. When you consider the $1 billion initial investment, and the yearly operating costs (I believe someone said it was $200 million), you must need a truly staggering amount of growth and property value increase in order for it to work. Especially when you consider all the side effects that will be caused as real estate prices increase. I feel like the numbers would just be totally bonkers.

Well, I'm not an economist, but here's my crack at this figure using some basic math and simple assumptions.

Assumptions:
-assume that only uplift created by the existence of the train will be utilized, not any other factors such as inflation, the creation of other industries in the area (eg: Tweed), etc.
-assume that the uplift will be a one time event. Therefore, assume that it is the inflation on the uplift which will fund the train on an ongoing basis.
-assume that uplift is supposed to be 'split' (ie: 50/50) between property owners and the train operators (as the Moose plan indicates it will do).
-assume that all property owners voluntarily contribute to the costs of the train
-assume an annual inflation rate of 2.5%.
-assume that we require $200M for annual operating costs.
-assume that we require $70M to service a $1B debt at 5% over 25 years.

Therefore: annual financial requirements to be provided by the uplift are $540M (($200M+$70M) / 0.5)). ((operating cost + debt servicing) / 'split')
Since annual uplift is 2.5% (inflation) on initial uplift at train implementation, this would mean initial uplift requirement is $21.6B ($540M / 0.025)

Now, Joseph Potvin has stated that they will only have stations where uplift is at least 25% of the property values. That means that property values in the 800m radius around all stations must total four times that amount (the uplift requirement) initially and five times that amount after the train service is implemented. That comes to $86.4B without the train and a total of $108B with the train in service if that assumption is correct. (A 25% increase on $86.4B comes to $108B, giving the required $21.6B uplift.)

So, to summarize: An initial $86.4B in property value around stations, given an uplift in property values of 25% solely due to the train gives a one time increase in value of $21.6B which will provide $540M annually at a rate of inflation of 2.5%.

Now, at first glance that might actually seem achievable, it comes out to about $2B in initial property values around each station. However, one could easily challenge a number of these assumptions. For example it is highly unlikely that all property owners would contribute voluntarily. If only half were to contribute that would lead to double the initial value requirements (so $172.8B). It is also highly unlikely that all station locations would achieve a 25% uplift, especially those already on an existing transit line (eg: O-Train). If the average uplift is reduced to only 10% we would have to start with initial property values 2.5X as high ($216B). A 10% uplift with 50% contribution rate would lead to $432B required in initial property values.

And of course we have to remember that many of the stations will have little pre-existing value to start off with. Therefore there will be a requirement for dozens of (multi)Billion dollar developments to be undertaken simultaneously across the NCR in order to create that initial property value. (eg: 2000 houses each valued at $1M around a station, or a condo development of 4000 units each valued at $500K around another station, etc, etc.) Until such time as the development is created the train would operate at a deficit.

Note: to simplify the math I have not included the compounding effect of the rate of inflation.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRenton

And that is why I would love to see some surveys and research done into what people think of the concept, What kind of people would it attract (would it attract people who would have chosen Barrhaven or Kanata, or is it primarily people who would have chosen the exurbs anywhere)? What kind of a premium/fee/tax would they be willing to pay for the Moose service? How many would even factor in, and ultimately use, commuter rail? Would it attract more people if it was a better network design?

The problem with surveys is they are only as good as the questions they ask. For example, if you asked Kanata residents if they would like rail service into central Ottawa, you would likely get a favourable response. OTOH, if you asked if they would they regularly use a train from March Rd at Carling Ave to Bayview (or Tremblay) station that only runs once an hour and takes 30 minutes to get there, the response would be less favourable, especially if it was made clear that a Confederation Line extension to Kanata would take only a few minutes longer to get all the way downtown, and would run every 9-15 minutes.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

Im not sure about VIA which is why I didn't include them and we will know what will happen with the POW bridge when Gatineau completes its study in 2020.

Carling LRT looks like its being pushed back since the the other extensions plus the Baseline BRT have been pushed to a higher priority. Im sure once the Baseline BRT is complete they will have a better idea on how to impliment LRT on Carling. My preference for LRT on Carling is that it should be elevated the whole distance until it reaches Lincoln Fields station and Carling Station.

Jim Watson wants the city of Gatineu and the Quebec provincial government along with the feds to pay for any crossing using the POW Bridge. Since I'm a Gatineau resident myself I have no problem paying for it since it would mean less congestion downtown so I can't wait for the Gatineau LRT construction to start.

I seriously doubt most Gatinois would support paying for the POW if the benefits remain as unclear as they are right now.