YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[CareerShow]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And there you go! Things always have a way of working themselves out.

PVG continues to flip flop back and forth.

I think Asia is slowly settling to a more decent balance of capacity. Even tweaking one flight a week out of a daily schedule can boost profitability.

The BOS schedule seems to be about the same as last summer? This is definitely a route that would do well in peak summer and the 3 1/2 months seems to fit the pattern.

BTW love your updates... keep them coming!

Based on the stats we’ve seen, in surprises in the frequency reduction for TPE, as load factors were in the high 90’s?

Also, is there now only two 77W transoceanic flight now (PEK & HKG)? Two summers back it was 4 I believe...HKG, PEK, PVG, LHR.

[nname]

Originally Posted by CareerShow

Based on the stats we’ve seen, in surprises in the frequency reduction for TPE, as load factors were in the high 90’s?

Also, is there now only two 77W transoceanic flight now (PEK & HKG)? Two summers back it was 4 I believe...HKG, PEK, PVG, LHR.

Well, they must cut a weekly 789 somewhere right? (or add a 3x weekly ULH but that's not going to happen anymore) And TPE is probably one of the weakest Pacific route besides KIX.

I feel like it may have something to do with the recent slot trade... AC wanted to reduce the downtime at LHR so trying to trade away a 6-8 (?) hr turnaround block with one that's 1h 20min... but the slot requested is not available and ended up with a 40min turnaround... in the end there's still a plane sitting at LHR most of the day, so they'll still have to free a plane up somewhere.

AC got a lot of downtime at LHR... If they can keep trading to get better slots, it can basically free up 2 planes.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Nope that was a summer 2017 thing which was scheduled only for one month. Summer 2018 was all 332. The visual posted showed PVG-YVR connected not NKG.

Ahh gotcha, I had my chart wrong for that then.

Originally Posted by nname

... and the MEL puzzle also solved.

AC18 TPE-YVR reduced to x1
AC26 PVG-YVR 77W -> 789

AC532 YVR-BOS now reduced to Jun1 to Sep15

AC970 YVR-PVR 7M8 -> 320

Ugh, reductions across the board. PVG from 77W to 789 in particular is a big hit.

I'm now showing a decrease in long haul seats summer 2019 compared to summer 2018, even when including for the Wow service that may or may not happen given their current turmoil.

I'm not too surprised that Asia is slowing (or in this case down nearly 4% from 2018) given the unsustainably low fares, but I figured given the outrageously high fares summer 2018 we would see Europe picking up more of the slack. At this point if Wow doesn't happen available seats are up a paltry 0.9%.

2019 is not shaping up to be a big growth year across the water, hopefully domestic and transborder can pick up the slack. Those A220s can't come soon enough!

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Ahh gotcha, I had my chart wrong for that then.



Ugh, reductions across the board. PVG from 77W to 789 in particular is a big hit.

I'm now showing a decrease in long haul seats summer 2019 compared to summer 2018, even when including for the Wow service that may or may not happen given their current turmoil.

I'm not too surprised that Asia is slowing (or in this case down nearly 4% from 2018) given the unsustainably low fares, but I figured given the outrageously high fares summer 2018 we would see Europe picking up more of the slack. At this point if Wow doesn't happen available seats are up a paltry 0.9%.

2019 is not shaping up to be a big growth year across the water, hopefully domestic and transborder can pick up the slack. Those A220s can't come soon enough!

This was inevitable.

Number of factors.

1. Chinese carriers maxed-out in Canada. (directly impacts YVR)
2. AC long haul fleet maxed out. (affects all Canadian airports)
3. Asia yields in the gutter. (affects YVR more than YYZ/YUL)
4. European yields far superior, which is where the bulk of AC's expansions in 2019 is concentrated.

For YVR to continue with the current growth rate, it will need to come from foreign airlines, at least for long haul ops.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Ahh gotcha, I had my chart wrong for that then.



Ugh, reductions across the board. PVG from 77W to 789 in particular is a big hit.

I'm now showing a decrease in long haul seats summer 2019 compared to summer 2018, even when including for the Wow service that may or may not happen given their current turmoil.

I'm not too surprised that Asia is slowing (or in this case down nearly 4% from 2018) given the unsustainably low fares, but I figured given the outrageously high fares summer 2018 we would see Europe picking up more of the slack. At this point if Wow doesn't happen available seats are up a paltry 0.9%.

2019 is not shaping up to be a big growth year across the water, hopefully domestic and transborder can pick up the slack. Those A220s can't come soon enough!

Yeah there seems to be a lot of changes going on with Asia.

Here in Australia we have Air China pulling out of BNE, Hong Kong Airlines pulling out of CNS and OOL. Secondary routes are also being affected. No growth at all.

Perhaps YVR needs to absorb the flood of capacity added in the last few years. Hopefully YVR holds on to its routes and airlines. NGO and GLA being the only losses.

Plus in Canada we’ve got Hainan pulling YYC and YYC-NRT on hiatus as well.

[LeftCoaster]

Yep. Our last domestic hope was WS, and they've picked YYC as their longhaul hub.

I don't see too many other carriers looking at YVR from Asia.
- Asiana should be here but for some reason isn't.
- Thai, Vietnam, and Singapore are all very unlikely.
- Turkish is also a long shot and only 3X if it does happen
- Qantas is the only likely growth with an upguage on YVR-SYD to a more frequent dreamliner vs sporadic 3x 747.

Closer to home:
- Copa should happen, I think they can fill in the YVR-South America void no one seems willing to jump on.
- MTY or GDL I think are still quite likely. The latin population in Vancouver is growing rapidly and tourism from and to Mexico is flourishing.

Transborder and domestic should still do well though. The economy here continues to boom and pop growth remains steady at 40,000-50,000 a year.

[CloudInspector]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Yep. Our last domestic hope was WS, and they've picked YYC as their longhaul hub.

Yes and no. They’ve announced the first international routes from YYC but haven’t said anything about Asia/Australia. I wouldn’t count them out just yet.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

- Copa should happen, I think they can fill in the YVR-South America void no one seems willing to jump on.

COPA cannot add more frequency to Canada. The bilateral with Panama is maxed out.


And you know.. from AC... YYZ probably also end up in capacity reduction or nearly break even... YUL may have a bit of gain, but nothing big either.

Seems like the new widebodies coming this year ended up replacing Rouge, and most of the Rouge plane freed up being used to increase network reliability.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by CloudInspector

Yes and no. They’ve announced the first international routes from YYC but haven’t said anything about Asia/Australia. I wouldn’t count them out just yet.

Somewhere, not long afer their announcement of going "big time" with 787s overseas, I saw a map of projected future routes, and it showed YVR to Lima and Santiago.
That might come to pass in a few years. Also, there has been a lot of "talk over recent months about "iminent" flights to Brazil. That could still happen, though with airline I don't know.

[CloudInspector]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Somewhere, not long afer their announcement of going "big time" with 787s overseas, I saw a map of projected future routes, and it showed YVR to Lima and Santiago.
That might come to pass in a few years. Also, there has been a lot of "talk over recent months about "iminent" flights to Brazil. That could still happen, though with airline I don't know.

Yeah, I’ve seen that map as well. It has YVR and YYZ as the major hubs as well as YYC. Also Gregg making a speech at the Vancouver Board of Trade with a focus on Asia make me think we’ll see a good chunk of the 787 flying. Likely they’re keeping the 787s close to home initially, but I suspect future announcements will include YVR and YYZ.

[Gordon]

I wonder what happened to the 7(?) major destinations that yVR said they would have by 2020?

It would be nice to have a couple of South East Asian Routes,

There is still basically no information on Pier F. If it is accessed from the from east end of the check-ibn aea how will it access the customs pre clearance area?

[stiffdeadman]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Yep. Our last domestic hope was WS, and they've picked YYC as their longhaul hub.

I don't see too many other carriers looking at YVR from Asia.
- Asiana should be here but for some reason isn't.
- Thai, Vietnam, and Singapore are all very unlikely.
- Turkish is also a long shot and only 3X if it does happen
- Qantas is the only likely growth with an upguage on YVR-SYD to a more frequent dreamliner vs sporadic 3x 747.

Closer to home:
- Copa should happen, I think they can fill in the YVR-South America void no one seems willing to jump on.
- MTY or GDL I think are still quite likely. The latin population in Vancouver is growing rapidly and tourism from and to Mexico is flourishing.

Transborder and domestic should still do well though. The economy here continues to boom and pop growth remains steady at 40,000-50,000 a year.

surprised volaris hasn't jumped on guadalajara yet.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by stiffdeadman

surprised volaris hasn't jumped on guadalajara yet.

That is one route I would agree is in the "highly likely" category.

I would never have expected AM to fly 3 daily flights from YVR-MEX even if just for the peak Xmas period.

YVR-Mexico (not sun destination flying) still appears to be in growth mode.

[Johnny Aussie]

Airlineroute from Twitter:

“WOW air extended schedule listing into winter 2019/20 season, on/after 27OCT19. Vancouver service will continue in winter season, 5 weekly A321”

[jlousa]

Anyone think the whole deal with the Huawei CFO is going to have any effect on the number of flights passing thru Vancouver to China?

[scryer]

Originally Posted by jlousa

Anyone think the whole deal with the Huawei CFO is going to have any effect on the number of flights passing thru Vancouver to China?

It could increase flights if they needed to send employees back .

[osirisboy]

I don't need think so, Especially if it can be shown as a one off. Also, if someone was avoiding flying in and out of the us to avoid apprehension they should know that they can still be apprehended in Canada (and other countries)

Also where are the October stats?! Who's the person that emails them? Haha

[Henbo]

Originally Posted by jlousa

Anyone think the whole deal with the Huawei CFO is going to have any effect on the number of flights passing thru Vancouver to China?

On its own, I don't think so, just because I believe much of the flight demand between here and China is family and tourism related, not necessarily business (but no idea the proportion of those visitors who are Chinese executives, but I expect this would be relatively low)

Overall, I think it depends if you consider this as part of the rising tensions / trade war between US/China or not. Because that is a factor which analysts say is starting to effect the Chinese economy (possibly evident by the cut back in Chinese flights that was just discussed)

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...nomic-growth-slowing-impact-trade-war-us

[Johnny Aussie]

YVR has posted Oct 2018 pax figures

Not a bad month... definitely a slower rate but an excellent result nonetheless.

Another 2 million + month... pretty soon each month should exceed 2 million

YTD International up almost 1,000,000 over YTD 2017.

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/...ic-update-october-2018-website.pdf?la=en

Overall up 5.9% up 116,000 to 2,068,859
Domestic up 4.0% up 40,000 to 1,029,447
International up 7.9% up 76,000 to 1,039,412

International breakdown:
Transborder up 6.8%
Asia Pacific up 5.1%
Europe up 10.8%
Misc intl up 33.9%

********

YTD overall up 7.9% up 1.62 million to 22,028,389
YTD domestic up 6.5% up 643,000 to 10,535,803
YTD international up 9.3% up 976,000 to 11,492,586

Oh yeah... and if anybody wants to bring up SEA (YIKES! yet again) go look at their Oct 2018 and YTD int'l stats first - including their breakdowns for Canada, Asia and Europe.

[nname]

I guess YVR is not going to pass 26M this year?
My prediction: 7.5% increase by year end, with a total of 25.98M passengers