YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[casper]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well WestJet's hub they are building at YYC is far different than the hub they have run since 96.

My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

They are going to rely very heavily on connections to fill the international long hauls. This can work, but they are going to have to take a hit since most major centres in Western North America are already hubs of their own, so they will need to appeal based on cost to attract fliers. Unfortunately they have all these expensive new planes, an expensive new terminal, lie flat J class to fill and a new pilots/FA union to account for.

I personally think their YYC hub is a very very large gamble with a lot of scenarios resulting in a big impact to corporate profitability. I could very well be wrong but it seems to me like a they should have pushed their intl' expansion to YYZ with much lower risk, albiet lower upside potential as well.

I think the issue is "hub" means different things to different people.

WS is basically duplicating what AC has in Calgary. A flight to London and a second flight to its European partners main hub. WS is not going much more beyond that. Perhaps displace AirTransat with the odd European tourist destination during the summer months. We are not talking about a major "hub".

They will do fine. That said AC has the better routes. Heathrow is much more connected airport than Gatwick especially to oil centers in the middle east. Frankfurt is also a much nicer airport to make connections than Paris.

I think longer term, Vancouver is becoming expensive for many. That is driving population growth in other parts of BC. If you are in Victoria or Kelowna and you need to fly to Europe or east of Calgary there is no difference if you make your connection in YVR or YYC.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

They are going to rely very heavily on connections to fill the international long hauls. This can work, but they are going to have to take a hit since most major centres in Western North America are already hubs of their own, so they will need to appeal based on cost to attract fliers. Unfortunately they have all these expensive new planes, an expensive new terminal, lie flat J class to fill and a new pilots/FA union to account for.

A three airplane YYC-Asia hub is NRT/HKG/PEK all at 3-4 times per week. Complement with the three airplane LGWCDG/DUB TransAt run and you have a YYC based International Hub with 4 airplanes left over for YYZ.

I suspect the TransPac YYC portion of the hub will all originate in YYZ. There is a lot of fuel savings in doing YYZ-YYC-Asia over YYZ-Asia n/s. WS doesn't have a large premium cabin configuration to begin with, so there is little upside in going after the n/s market. In this regard tWS will be competing with the Asian airlines rather than AC.

[LeftCoaster]

You're probably right, you know a lot more about this stuff than I do, I just remain skeptical about the benefits of running a hub with low O&D. Doesn't seem sustainable long term. Without strong O&D demand WS will be left fighting for the low fare scraps with the Chinese carriers who have much more ability to price fares low and endure losses on routes.

[CloudInspector]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

You're probably right, you know a lot more about this stuff than I do, I just remain skeptical about the benefits of running a hub with low O&D. Doesn't seem sustainable long term. Without strong O&D demand WS will be left fighting for the low fare scraps with the Chinese carriers who have much more ability to price fares low and endure losses on routes.

I agree with LeftCoaster, I don’t think YYC has enough O&D to warrant significant year round service to Asia. I imagine NRT and SEL would be likely on a seasonal basis, but I’m still betting on YVR and YYZ being the big widebody hubs for WestJet.

I guess we’ll find out in the next few months...?

[LeftCoaster]

I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

But WS knows that AC don't have any more new widebody for expansion, and don't expect them to cut service from YYZ/YUL for expansion for the west.... although they sort of did next summer to reallocate capacity from BOM to YVR-DEL..

Even if AC exercise the 787 options (which is actually still on the books), it will take a few more years until the planes arrives.

[CloudInspector]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

The same can be said about them reducing their feed into YYZ, but I’m sure that will be the eastern 787 base.

I think they learned a valuable lesson from the 767 launch and they’re trying not to repeat that, hence the first routes. YYC and YVR are not interchangeable when it comes to market sizes.

[LeftCoaster]

The 767 launch I'm sure factored into this, but still seems odd they loaded up YYC with the dreamliners and not YYZ. Toronto is just so much safer of a market for them to launch from.

Originally Posted by nname

But WS knows that AC don't have any more new widebody for expansion, and don't expect them to cut service from YYZ/YUL for expansion for the west.... although they sort of did next summer to reallocate capacity from BOM to YVR-DEL..

Even if AC exercise the 787 options (which is actually still on the books), it will take a few more years until the planes arrives.

Well they can always keep loading up on used A330s with no lead time which seems to be working very well for them. This can then free up 787s and 777s for YVR since Vancouver is a crew base for those types. I would not be surprised to see them do this if the economies in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal keep booming away.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

The 767 launch I'm sure factored into this, but still seems odd they loaded up YYC with the dreamliners and not YYZ. Toronto is just so much safer of a market for them to launch from.

The 767 from YYC went to YYZ though. But then their 787 have much better premium products...

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well they can always keep loading up on used A330s with no lead time which seems to be working very well for them. This can then free up 787s and 777s for YVR since Vancouver is a crew base for those types. I would not be surprised to see them do this if the economies in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal keep booming away.

If they could find good ones.... or maybe they can snatch some used 788 too.. there's already a couple up for sale

It'll be interesting to see what they'll do though. As it stands, they do not have enough plane to run S20 service at S19 level unless they cut service and/or reduce the slack in Rouge and throw a lot of routes to Rouge...

[Cage]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well they can always keep loading up on used A330s with no lead time which seems to be working very well for them. This can then free up 787s and 777s for YVR since Vancouver is a crew base for those types. I would not be surprised to see them do this if the economies in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal keep booming away.

Bingo, the used 333 market is opening up with good pricing.

Keep in mind that with the exception of YVR, every 787 TransAt route for AC has better economics if flown by the 333. The reverse is true for the TransPac where the 333 really shines. The best widebody fleet combination is 333 on the TransAt and 787 on the TransPac.

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

i noticed the outlet mall expansion is coming along pretty quickly. part of it looks taller then the other parts.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

You forgot HNL increased from 5x weekly to daily (was sharing a Rouge 767 with OGG)

AC was half-way updating the Express when I was scanning through it last night.. no wonder I can't find some of the changes you mentioned

AC8080 YVR-SEA daily DH4 *new*
AC8092 YVR-SEA DH4 -> CR9
AC8106 YVR-DEN daily -> x6
AC8238 YVR-YXT x6 DH4 *new*
AC8410 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8416 YVR-YLW daily -> x6
AC8418 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8420 YVR-YLW *cancelled*
AC8574 YVR-YXE daily -> x6
AC8844 YVR-SFO daily CR9 *new*
AC8890 YVR-YXY daily -> x6

Interestingly, seems like so far AC is going for improved frequency (~6 dailies in total) at YVR rather than adding new routes. Looking though all the changes so far, YUL doesn't seems to have any substantial frequency increase (few weekly additions for long-hual Rouge, plus some sub-daily increase in YYJ and MIA) but added a couple of new destinations.

6x dailies on DH4, CRJ or narrowbodies or new destinations......hmmm

I'll take the new destinations... A link to RDU for Montreal is far more important than additional flights to YYC/YEG.

Besides, those A319s moving east to replace the E190s are a nice increase in seats as well.

[s211]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

A link to RDU for Montreal is far more important than additional flights to YYC/YEG.

Said no-one from the rest of Canada, ever.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

I don’t think “ceding” YVR to AC is a mistake though as they didn’t really have a choice. More of a risky gamble to be honest.

I don’t think YVR and YYC are big enough markets to have two large hubs.

Both airlines are strategising by building up one over the other.

In recent years AC has not grown YYC at all... even sun flying has been stagnant (a bit of transborder fluff from YYC has been added). But we all have seen what AC has done at YVR. AC’s strategy is pretty clear.

WS is clearly boosting up YYC as their primary hub.

Interestingly though look at the patterns over the past few years. WS has actually increased flying at YVR during the same time that AC has constantly added more and more at YVR each year. Whereas AC at YYC has scaled back.
Only in the last two seasonal schedule updates has WS wound back YVR. But looking at it in detail the “wind-back” at YVR of WS is actually a lot less than the perception. Actually quite minuscule. And AC has just increased transborder and international flying next summer as highlighted in my previous post. Increased flying to SEA, SFO, ANC, HNL, OGG, ZRH, DEL, MEL and service level increases to DUB and KIX. A decent indication the transborder and international networks are doing well. Seeing increased flying to YOW, YXT and YZF are also good to see.

WS’s gamble at YYC may be occurring in a period of bad timing though. YYC still very dependent on the oil industry thriving and recent events have certainly slowed the recovery that was happening and in fact may have stalled.
And international flying? YYC is definitely well positioned for Europe but is on the wrong side of YVR to be a really big contender to build up a substantial Asian network. YVR still a much larger market to Europe than YYC. But look at the Asian markets and YVR is just too huge to ignore. In summary, YYC has a much better chance of making Europe work over Asia. Recent capacity cuts to Asia only tells part of the story.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by s211

Said no-one from the rest of Canada, ever.

Actually, 15,700 people that regularly fly from YVR to RDU and back every year would disagree with you....

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2310025601

[SpongeG]

i think he meant YVR - RDU wherever the f that is is just as important as Montreal to RDU, the montreal poster seemed to be implying RDU only needs a montreal connection and that other cities don't need them, thats how it reads to me anyway

[s211]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

i think he meant YVR - RDU wherever the f that is is just as important as Montreal to RDU, the montreal poster seemed to be implying RDU only needs a montreal connection and that other cities don't need them, thats how it reads to me anyway

[Johnny Aussie]

Over in the YYC thread, Acey has confirmed that Hainan is pulling out of YYC. The date of pullout has not been confirmed yet.
This will free up three weekly frequencies. Will Hainan use those three weekly frequencies to: boost YVR-TSN, launch something new from YVR, bolster something from YYZ, something else?

This move reaffirms the last sentence of my last post.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Over in the YYC thread, Acey has confirmed that Hainan is pulling out of YYC. The date of pullout has not been confirmed yet.
This will free up three weekly frequencies. Will Hainan use those three weekly frequencies to: boost YVR-TSN, launch something new from YVR, bolster something from YYZ, something else?

This move reaffirms the last sentence of my last post.

Approvals haven't been given for any of the routes that are now exempt from one-airline-per-route policy. But I'm not sure if HU will get it though, seems like they might lose if multiple airlines are fighting for it according to the 100-points grading scheme that was recently used...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Approvals haven't been given for any of the routes that are now exempt from one-airline-per-route policy. But I'm not sure if HU will get it though, seems like they might lose if multiple airlines are fighting for it according to the 100-points grading scheme that was recently used...

Yes, on the China side.... but Canada still hasn’t raised its ceiling on allowable frequencies to the Chinese airlines... so that’s the roadblock on this end. Until that is raised, there are only 3 frequencies available for HU only.