YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Well, right now they're offering $154 one-way YVR-YYC-ATL, is that fare low enough?

Direct flight from DL is more than double of that amount.

And the breakdown of the fare is:
$69.99 Base fare from WestJet
$37.20 Tax and Fee (Canadian side)
$46.30 Tax and Fee (US side)

Compared to the base fare of YVR-YYC of the same flight on the same day, it's $126.00 base fare + $34.78 tax and fee.

WestJet is pretty much giving out the flight to ATL for free if you connect through YYC

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Well, right now they're offering $154 one-way YVR-YYC-ATL, is that fare low enough?

Direct flight from DL is more than double of that amount.

And the breakdown of the fare is:
$69.99 Base fare from WestJet
$37.20 Tax and Fee (Canadian side)
$46.30 Tax and Fee (US side)

Compared to the base fare of YVR-YYC of the same flight on the same day, it's $126.00 base fare + $34.78 tax and fee.

WestJet is pretty much giving out the flight to ATL for free if you connect through YYC

And as Leftcoaster pointed out... this will trash the yields on that flight if they keep that up.... a plane full with low fares is recipe for disaster.

[nname]

YVR Domestic + Transborder changes for AC, which was just loaded:

AC200 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, 12345 -> x6
AC202 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> x7
AC204 YVR-YYC 319 -> 7M8
AC206 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> x6
AC208 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC210 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC212 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC214 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> 12345
AC216 YVR-YYC *cancelled*
AC220 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC224 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> x6
AC228 YVR-YYC 320 -> 319
AC230 YVR-YYC 319 -> 7M8
AC232 YVR-YEG 319 -> 320
AC240 YVR-YEG 319 -> 320
AC244 YVR-YEG daily -> x6
AC252 YVR-YEG 321 -> 319
AC292 YVR-YWG 319 -> 320

AC312 YVR-YUL 320 -> 7M8
AC338 YVR-YOW 321 -> 320
AC342 YVR-YOW 319 -> 320
AC346 YVR-YOW daily 320 *new*
AC392 YVR-YUL 320 -> 7M8

AC536 YVR-OGG 5x weekly -> daily 7M8
AC550 YVR-LAX 319 -> 7M8
AC552 YVR-LAX 320 -> 319
AC554 YVR-LAX 320 -> 319
AC556 YVR-LAX 320 -> 319
AC558 YVR-LAX 320 -> 7M8
AC560 YVR-SFO 320 -> 7M8
AC562 YVR-ANC daily 319 *new*
AC566 YVR-SFO 320 -> 7M8
AC568 YVR-SFO 320 -> 7M8
AC572 YVR-LAX 320 -> 7M8

In short, the 319 need to move east to cover the work done by E90, so many of YVR's 319 routes got up-gauged to 320.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Quite frankly with oil prices in the gutter for the forseeable future their entire YYC hub concept is in trouble IMO.

YYC Hub?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

YVR Domestic + Transborder changes for AC, which was just loaded:

Excellent work again. Thanks.

So based on the schedules now (subject to change).... AC's YVR Transborder frequencies will climb to 43 in summer 2019 up from 39 last summer.

SFO increases to 5 daily
ANC increases to 2 daily
SEA increases to 6 daily
OGG increases to Daily from 2 weekly

Also on the domestic side YOW is increasing to 4 daily and as mentioned YZF is continuing year round.

Good to see AC further strengthening their YVR hub.

[s211]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

No kidding. When YYC'ers are complaining about how bad the security and immigration clearances are in the renovated YYC airport, you know it has to suck.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Quite frankly with oil prices in the gutter for the forseeable future their entire YYC hub concept is in trouble IMO.

WS hubbing in YYC is going to work out, because they have been doing it since 1996.

Also, AC will let YYC go for everything except YVR/YEG/YYZ/YOW/YUL/LHR/FRA. This strategy is best described as "We will let the competition have the fourth largest market and take the top 3 largest markets".

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Excellent work again. Thanks.

So based on the schedules now (subject to change).... AC's YVR Transborder frequencies will climb to 43 in summer 2019 up from 39 last summer.

SFO increases to 5 daily
ANC increases to 2 daily
SEA increases to 6 daily
OGG increases to Daily from 2 weekly

Also on the domestic side YOW is increasing to 4 daily and as mentioned YZF is continuing year round.

Good to see AC further strengthening their YVR hub.

You forgot HNL increased from 5x weekly to daily (was sharing a Rouge 767 with OGG)

AC was half-way updating the Express when I was scanning through it last night.. no wonder I can't find some of the changes you mentioned

AC8080 YVR-SEA daily DH4 *new*
AC8092 YVR-SEA DH4 -> CR9
AC8106 YVR-DEN daily -> x6
AC8238 YVR-YXT x6 DH4 *new*
AC8410 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8416 YVR-YLW daily -> x6
AC8418 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8420 YVR-YLW *cancelled*
AC8574 YVR-YXE daily -> x6
AC8844 YVR-SFO daily CR9 *new*
AC8890 YVR-YXY daily -> x6

Interestingly, seems like so far AC is going for improved frequency (~6 dailies in total) at YVR rather than adding new routes. Looking though all the changes so far, YUL doesn't seems to have any substantial frequency increase (few weekly additions for long-hual Rouge, plus some sub-daily increase in YYJ and MIA) but added a couple of new destinations. YYC have some loss mainly due to the cancellation of YQF.. otherwise it stays pretty even. AC haven't really start changing YYZ schedule yet.

[Gordon]

The 2nd ANC flight soesn't shop on ACs website.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Gordon

The 2nd ANC flight soesn't shop on ACs website.

Try timetable. Effective June 1 to Sept 2.

It will take a few days to show up in booking.

[YYCguys]

That’s pretty cool to see AC doing ANC! Saves time by not having to backtrack to SEA on AS!

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Cage

WS hubbing in YYC is going to work out, because they have been doing it since 1996.

Also, AC will let YYC go for everything except YVR/YEG/YYZ/YOW/YUL/LHR/FRA. This strategy is best described as "We will let the competition have the fourth largest market and take the top 3 largest markets".

Well WestJet's hub they are building at YYC is far different than the hub they have run since 96.

My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

They are going to rely very heavily on connections to fill the international long hauls. This can work, but they are going to have to take a hit since most major centres in Western North America are already hubs of their own, so they will need to appeal based on cost to attract fliers. Unfortunately they have all these expensive new planes, an expensive new terminal, lie flat J class to fill and a new pilots/FA union to account for.

I personally think their YYC hub is a very very large gamble with a lot of scenarios resulting in a big impact to corporate profitability. I could very well be wrong but it seems to me like a they should have pushed their intl' expansion to YYZ with much lower risk, albiet lower upside potential as well.

[s211]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

I'd go as far to say that there's also some semi-clear Calgary boosterism going on, the way that Westjet has consistently built up its home base.

[LeftCoaster]

Well that's fine, gotta play in the sandbox you know, but when you are making major decisions based on emotion or reluctance to leave the comfortable then you're going to get yourself into trouble.

[nname]

Originally Posted by YYCguys

That’s pretty cool to see AC doing ANC! Saves time by not having to backtrack to SEA on AS!

AC had always been offering summer seasonal flights to ANC. Just that next summer they doubled the service and added a new morning departure from YVR and noon departure from ANC.

Now, I wonder if they'll make it year-round like what they did when they added the second daily to YZF, or still keep it seasonal. Or maybe there's just that much cruise ship traffic to warrant double-daily for summon months only

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I personally think their YYC hub is a very very large gamble with a lot of scenarios resulting in a big impact to corporate profitability. I could very well be wrong but it seems to me like a they should have pushed their intl' expansion to YYZ with much lower risk, albiet lower upside potential as well.

They did, on a lesser degree though.

Seems like the majority of the new Trans-Atlantic service will be from YYC, but there's also small expansion out of YYZ, and consolidating the narrow-body ops at YHZ.

Now it remain to be seen if their Trans-Pacific operation will be mainly based from YYC, or split YYC/YVR... or they are not going touch this market at all?

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Are you sure about that?

I’m not seeing anything in their timetables, availability or on Aeroplan.

Pretty sure KIX will remain seasonal, like FRA, CDG, ZRH and DUB. YYC-NRT also not showing after late October 2019 as well... probably moved to seasonal.

Could be... but I did book a return flight returning Nov 12, 2019 and it still shows as seats available. Latest I can see flights now is November 15th, 2019.

[nname]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Could be... but I did book a return flight returning Nov 12, 2019 and it still shows as seats available. Latest I can see flights now is November 15th, 2019.

AC originally did have KIX and FRA service extended into November with reduced service, before the entire winter schedule being replaced by a carbon copy of W18, and both routes now stop right at S19/W19 schedule change date (without the gradual reduction of flights near the end of seasonal service)

Maybe Aeroplan site haven't synced with the latest schedule change? Or Aeroplan got access to AC's internal schedule before it even published on their website? Who knows... But the entire winter schedule is still pretty messy right now, as I'm still seeing flights to PEK, ICN, or NRT that's one or two weekly... I'll wait till the end of the year to come to any conclusion.

[trofirhen]

KIX and SIN are already coveted year-round routes from YVR, (especially SIN). If YVR were to get three year-round overseas routes over and above these, what would you choose?

Secondly, if YVR were to get three additional year-round transborder routes, what would they be?

[nname]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

KIX and SIN are already coveted year-round routes from YVR, (especially SIN). If YVR were to get three year-round overseas routes over and above these, what would you choose?

Secondly, if YVR were to get three additional year-round transborder routes, what would they be?

I had something else, then I noticed "year-round"... hmmm..

Transborder: KOA, BOS, ANC
Oversea: DUB, MUC, ZRH maybe..?

Or you mean new destinations?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by nname

I had something else, then I noticed "year-round"... hmmm..

Transborder: KOA, BOS, ANC
Oversea: DUB, MUC, ZRH maybe..?

Or you mean new destinations?

Destinations. Year-round routes to new destinations.