Rural Commuter Rail

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, I agree they have not yet been successful. Moose has filed close to a dozen regulatory and judicial actions since it has been in “business” and has otherwise not taken any significant steps to advance its stated business. They have made no attempt to establish a proof of concept, no attempt to license or franchise its business model and no attempt to publicize the advantages of high-density rural living (which is the whole basis of the stated business model). Have you ever heard of a legitimate entrepreneur that spent their first 7 years of operations doing little else but filing regulatory complaints?

Are you suggesting that MOOSE is trying to obtain a settlement but they just haven't succeeded yet..? That's a fairly ridiculous assertion to make.

IIRC something like $500k worth of work has gone into MOOSE so far, so I'm not sure what you're saying. MOOSE is also continuing their Certificate of Fitness application in the new year (with insurance details and all that fun stuff).

Originally Posted by roger1818

I tend to agree. Also, since Joseph doesn't live in Ottawa, he doesn't care how much his actions cost the Ottawa taxpayers. The problem with legal battles against governments is the innocent end up footing the bill. If the government ends up losing, it doesn't cost the people who made the decision anything.

Right now it's a federal agency against the city... so I guess taxpayers lose overall, but I feel like everyone is mad at MOOSE on this point because they were the ones who pointed it out when it's pretty clear that the city is at fault here.

The CTA probably doesn't like the idea of allowing railways to dismantle parts of their railways and get away with it by saying "we'll fix it... eventually... we promise!". The city dismantled the existing connection between the Ellwood sub and the PoW bridge with no plan at all to restore the connection (because it will now apparently take up to two years just to reconnect the two sections) which honestly seems like the city has managed to circumvent the requirement of a three-year plan. The three-year plan may clearly state that the city intends to retain the track through Bayview... but if you look very closely you'll see that there is no track and there hasn't been since 2014, well before the current three-year plan went into effect.

I can understand why people would blame MOOSE for this case but it's also possible the city could have ended up in this situation if the CTA just did a review of federal railways in Canada, as has happened in the past. The city's handling of Bayview and the PoW bridge has been a complete disaster over the last 4 years at the very least (I don't think anyone disagrees with that) and frankly I'm not sure the city will win their case and that might be a good thing, not because it'd be good for MOOSE, but because maybe the city will actually do something good with that bridge instead of continuing to turn it into a wreck.

Originally Posted by Allandale25

Second, a letter from the Railway Association of Canada supporting the City of Ottawa's case. Interesting that the railway industry association isn't supportive of Moose's plan. I seem to recall the Moose proponents saying they would contract another railway operator that has the necessary approval documentation from Transport Canada to run their service. I assume most if not all of these existing operators are members of RAC.

Of course the industry opposes regulation when it's inconvenient to them.

[Truenorth00]

@OCCheetos

I agree with you that people should be mad at the city for violating the law. That does not, however, in any vindicate Moose and justify what they are proposing.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Are you suggesting that MOOSE is trying to obtain a settlement but they just haven't succeeded yet..? That's a fairly ridiculous assertion to make.

IIRC something like $500k worth of work has gone into MOOSE so far, so I'm not sure what you're saying. MOOSE is also continuing their Certificate of Fitness application in the new year (with insurance details and all that fun stuff).

They haven’t obtained a court victory yet that could be used to extricate a settlement from the city.

As I understand it the 500k is in kind (and at a self-declared valuation) and little cash is involved. Certainly in 7 years they have been unable to come up with cash for a feasibility study. The certificate of fitness is just another pointless regulatory filing as they have no track rights, rolling stock or money. If you read the application you will note the insurance is on the office and has nothing to do with rail operations.

There is nothing there, Moose is vexatious litigant who likes to blog about it. I understand you really want to believe you’re going to get free transit out of this, but that doesn’t make it a legitimate business.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

They haven’t obtained a court victory yet that could be used to extricate a settlement from the city.

Again, MOOSE isn't in court, the CTA is. There's no way MOOSE can get any money out of what you think they're doing.

As I understand it the 500k is in kind (and at a self-declared valuation) and little cash is involved. Certainly in 7 years they have been unable to come up with cash for a feasibility study. The certificate of fitness is just another pointless regulatory filing as they have no track rights, rolling stock or money. If you read the application you will note the insurance is on the office and has nothing to do with rail operations.

500k of in-kind work is still 500k worth of work...

From the latest version of their brochure: "Moose will finalize insurance arrangements and apply to the Canadian Transportation Agency in January 2019 for a 'Certificate of Fitness.'". Of course they don't have track rights, they don't have a Certificate of Fitness. Obtaining that would be the first step in acquiring track rights (of course they'd still need the money).

There is nothing there, Moose is vexatious litigant who likes to blog about it. I understand you really want to believe you’re going to get free transit out of this, but that doesn’t make it a legitimate business.

I'm well aware of the reasons why MOOSE's plans don't make sense or would be bad as-is, and over time I've come to agree with a lot of those points, but baselessly accusing MOOSE of being vexatious litigators in search of cash contributes nothing to this discussion (and frankly, is incorrect). You can't even provide an example of how they would even get any money out of the situation because there really is none.

Personally, I find Truenorth00's analysis of what MOOSE and Mr. Potvin are doing to be far more based in truth than whatever conspiracy theory you've got cooking. MOOSE isn't going after the city over Bayview for cash, they're doing it because they're desperate for those tracks.

[Allandale25]

Originally Posted by Allandale25

I reviewed the documents provided in the link above. Here's a summary, where I chronologically ordered the files:

Further to my post above, I re-read a post Joseph did in the other forum, Urban Toronto. In part he said:

Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin, post: 1389799, member: 69027

I've not been back to this blog list for a while.

Anyways, stay tuned for the next stage in our work to prevent and reverse illegal destruction of federally-regulated railway infrastructure.
https://www.letsgomoose.ca/wp-conte...nToMinisterTransportCanada_2018-09-18cPDF.pdf

MOOSE is advancing our whole region commercial plan. I can report that quite a few senior people within the City of Ottawa administration, and several councillors also consider our work highly beneficial to the future of both Ottawa and the National Capital Region.

Two thoughts:

1) Why is the Moose letter in the above link dated September 18, 2018 if the letter from Indriani Hulan at Transport Canada set a deadline of September 14, 2018?




So, my question in this Urban Toronto post has already been answered:

Originally Posted by Allandale25, post: 1390330, member: 807

I reviewed the documents provided in the link above. Here's a summary, where I chronologically ordered the files:

First, from the 17Aug18 Transport Canada letter to Moose, I notice the passage below. One to two years from August 17, 2018 (date of the letter) or September 14, 2018 (deadline set out by the letter) to start the processing, I wonder how far along Phase II will be. Further, it seems like a very tall order.

It will September 18, 2019 at the earliest or September 18, 2020 at the latest before Transport Canada rules on this Section 40 petition by Moose. When do shovels hit the ground again for Phase 2?

2) With respect to this:

MOOSE is advancing our whole region commercial plan. I can report that quite a few senior people within the City of Ottawa administration, and several councillors also consider our work highly beneficial to the future of both Ottawa and the National Capital Region.

Who specifically? So let me get this straight, senior people within the City of Ottawa are working behind the scenes against the will of Council for the Phase 2 plan? Really? They are willing to risk their jobs for an unsolicited, unfunded, private sector idea? I'm skeptical.

[Charles5]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

500k of in-kind work is still 500k worth of work...

$500k will get you about three to four person years of work in the form of senior managers, engineers, consultants, etc.

Given that the MOOSE consortium is comprised of about 10 different corporate entities and has been operating for around 8 years now, that comes out to an average of about 1/20th of a person year from each corporate entity each year. Admittedly it's not evenly distributed amongst the various entities and I suspect that the bulk of the 'work' is being done by Joseph Potvin and a few others, but it is still just a tiny amount of work considering what is being proposed.

The majority of that effort appears to me to have gone into litigation, complaints, challenges, etc, along with a lot of promotional material. Perhaps if they actually devoted more time and effort into the feasibility study (supposedly ongoing for the past 2 1/2 years, but still unfunded), they might actually realise that there is no business case for a regional rail line using their proposed funding model.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Again, MOOSE isn't in court, the CTA is. There's no way MOOSE can get any money out of what you think they're doing.


500k of in-kind work is still 500k worth of work...

From the latest version of their brochure: "Moose will finalize insurance arrangements and apply to the Canadian Transportation Agency in January 2019 for a 'Certificate of Fitness.'". Of course they don't have track rights, they don't have a Certificate of Fitness. Obtaining that would be the first step in acquiring track rights (of course they'd still need the money).


I'm well aware of the reasons why MOOSE's plans don't make sense or would be bad as-is, and over time I've come to agree with a lot of those points, but baselessly accusing MOOSE of being vexatious litigators in search of cash contributes nothing to this discussion (and frankly, is incorrect). You can't even provide an example of how they would even get any money out of the situation because there really is none.

Personally, I find Truenorth00's analysis of what MOOSE and Mr. Potvin are doing to be far more based in truth than whatever conspiracy theory you've got cooking. MOOSE isn't going after the city over Bayview for cash, they're doing it because they're desperate for those tracks.

They’re stated objective is to get the CTA to order OCTranspo off its own tracks. That would provide an excellent opportunity to “settle.”

I too found True North’s analysis interesting and well-articulated. However, it does not explain Moose’s weird obsession with certain components of the plan. For example, even in th most optimistic scenario (tens of thousands of people decide to relocate to the countryside for privilege of living in a high density community in the middle of nowhere and sitting on a train for 2-3 hours a day) there would be no need for bi-level trains, they just add additional cost and delays. The only thing bi-level trains offer is another potential source of conflict with the city and additional opportunity for litigation.

It also doesn’t explain Moose’s lack of interest in a staged implementation. A Maxville to Tremblay line could be implemented almost immediately with contracted services and leased rolling stock. Potvin is only interested in the NCR (probably the worst major city in Canada to implement this business model) only interested in the POW Bridge, only interested in bi-level rolling stock. That doesn’t sound like an evangelist for rail transport, that sounds like someone with a very specific and very local interest.

Or look at it another way, have you ever heard of a business that spent its first 7 years doing nothing but litigation. Most entrepreneurs focus on reffing their business plan and trying to get investors. Moose has made hardly any changes to its business plan, putting everything on a mythic feasibility study. Does this sound like someone who is serious about getting a business off the ground?

[Truenorth00]

@acottawa

Great points. There's definitely actions that should raise eyebrows.

The thing I've always found strange is the choice of venue for this business plan. Ottawa does not have a large suburban belt. 20-25km in any direction from downtown and you're in the sticks. Canada does not have a long history of significant infrastructure being built with private capital. But we live next door to a country where Potvin's ideas could sell easily. Americans love urban sprawl. Even more than we do. They tend to prefer or at least tolerate private funding of infrastructure. There's plenty of large metros in the US where Potvin could actually build something. But he chooses to live in Chelsea and fight the City of Ottawa at the CTA.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Charles5

Well, I guess despite the updated brochure, MOOSE still hasn't figured out basic math.


"Moose Consortium's whole-region service will result in 25,000 fewer cars in downtown Ottawa each day."

• 25,000 cars = 30,000 commuters at an average of 1.25 commuters per vehicle.
• Each train holds just under 500 passengers
• There are three lines going through Ottawa with passengers flowing in from both directions, giving a capacity of 3,000 passengers per run (3 x 2 x 500 = 3,000).
• 30,000 passengers / 3,000 passengers per run = 10 runs.

Given hourly service starting at 5:30am as indicated in the Moose plan(page 6 of update 25 Nov 16) you would need to run fully loaded trains from 5:30am to 2:30pm just to get all the passengers into the downtown core. (In retrospect, it is mathematically possible, but totally unrealistic, as is most of what MOOSE proposes.)

I can just imagine that poor soul who wants to commute to work into downtown, but has to wait until the last train as he competes with the hoards of commuters who are flowing out of these small rural towns. He manages to find the last seat on the 2:30pm train, only to endure the 90 minute commute into central Ottawa, finally arriving at work at 4pm. He pulls an 8 hour shift, finishing at midnight only to find out he's missed the last train home. (SARCASM if you haven't realized it yet.)

To be fair to them, at 20 trains per branch per day (10 morning, 10 evening), the last inbound train would be at 1430 and the last outbound train would be at 0030. So the guy might just make his train.

What would suck though is getting left behind on the platform. Which would be consequence of MOOSE's maths based on the schedule and train capacity presented. After all, depending on where you live, there's only 4-5 trains that will work during the morning rush (7-9) and that equates to about 2000-2500 total capacity (12-15 mins of peak capacity on the Confederation Line). And if they succeed in the slightest, anybody in Ottawa will be SOL. Those trains will be full before they get to Barrhaven or Kanata. After all 500 per train isn't a lot of room. For comparison, GO trains have a capacity of almost 2000 pax. After all, the ride is free apparently. You don't even have to have a house in a MOOSE condominium zone. So it's hard not see trains filling up substantially before reaching the Ottawa suburbs.

I've always said MOOSE was there to encourage sprawl. They seem hellbent on proving my point. If you're relying on MOOSE, you better have a car. MOOSE is there to help some bedroom town developer sell you a house. It isn't there to actually get you to work.

Originally Posted by Allandale25

It will September 18, 2019 at the earliest or September 18, 2020 at the latest before Transport Canada rules on this Section 40 petition by Moose. When do shovels hit the ground again for Phase 2?

They've got to keep the hope alive. Costs them nothing much to follow through on the regulatory process anyway. If they didn't file that, they'd have to admit the whole scheme is dead. Nobody would bother talking to them. Now they can at least pretend they have a shot with any potential sucker...errr investor. Gotta get money for that feasibility study somehow.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

They’re stated objective is to get the CTA to order OCTranspo off its own tracks. That would provide an excellent opportunity to “settle.”

The CTA doesn't have that authority and that isn't quite what they said. They did say they'd invoke declaratory power which would give them the power to kick the city of its tracks, but that requires parliamentary approval, which requires a credible plan, and I don't think I need to tell you why that wouldn't work.

I too found True North’s analysis interesting and well-articulated. However, it does not explain Moose’s weird obsession with certain components of the plan. For example, even in th most optimistic scenario (tens of thousands of people decide to relocate to the countryside for privilege of living in a high density community in the middle of nowhere and sitting on a train for 2-3 hours a day) there would be no need for bi-level trains, they just add additional cost and delays. The only thing bi-level trains offer is another potential source of conflict with the city and additional opportunity for litigation.

So you're telling me that in 20111 when MOOSE was first put together and they decided on using bi-level coaches it was all part of an elaborate scheme so that 5 years down the road they could use it as extra leverage in their litigation? Perhaps you should take Occam's razor to this and see what kind of simpler explanation you get. I think it fits in with what Truenorth00 said in that Potvin is dead fixed on not just rail service, but rail service with bi-level trains for no other reason than probably because that's what most people associate with commuter rail (i.e. GO).

It also doesn’t explain Moose’s lack of interest in a staged implementation. A Maxville to Tremblay line could be implemented almost immediately with contracted services and leased rolling stock. Potvin is only interested in the NCR (probably the worst major city in Canada to implement this business model) only interested in the POW Bridge, only interested in bi-level rolling stock. That doesn’t sound like an evangelist for rail transport, that sounds like someone with a very specific and very local interest.

The explanation Potvin has given in the past is that unless they launch the entire system at once then the increased property values (for which their revenue depends on) won't be increased enough to make them their money, or as much money... or something along those lines.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

The CTA doesn't have that authority and that isn't quite what they said. They did say they'd invoke declaratory power which would give them the power to kick the city of its tracks, but that requires parliamentary approval, which requires a credible plan, and I don't think I need to tell you why that wouldn't work.

I do believe that Mr. Potvin is more zealot than troll. But if he trolls enough, he could just a cheque from the city to go away. Escalating his fights as far as possible would be part of such a charade.

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

I think it fits in with what Truenorth00 said in that Potvin is dead fixed on not just rail service, but rail service with bi-level trains for no other reason than probably because that's what most people associate with commuter rail (i.e. GO).

I said I just think he's a zealot. There could be any reason he picked bi-levels. From the common association with commuter rail as you suggest, to a desire for shorter (and cheaper) platforms, to his like for that choo-choo. It's a hare-brained scheme of a economist putting forwards a theoretical framework on transportation development. There's no actual transport planner or engineer signing off on his plans.

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

The explanation Potvin has given in the past is that unless they launch the entire system at once then the increased property values (for which their revenue depends on) won't be increased enough to make them their money, or as much money... or something along those lines.

Properly run startups have a plan to scale up and build sufficient runway into their capital plans to do so. They don't normally insist on 100% scale at launch.

And why the commercial success of MOOSE should be the concern of anybody in Ottawa, and/or why it should be taken into account in the city's transit development, is beyond me. I really hope no city employee beyond legal is actual wasting their time on MOOSE.

[zzptichka]

So what happened to that $5M feasibility study backed by Asian investors? It was supposed to be finished a year ago. Any news?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Charles5

Well, I guess despite the updated brochure, MOOSE still hasn't figured out basic math.


"Moose Consortium's whole-region service will result in 25,000 fewer cars in downtown Ottawa each day."

While it does say that in the 2018 brochure, if you look at the 2015 brochure, it says "Cause 25,000 fewer car trips per day, and reduce regional car dependence;"

By saying car trips instead of cars, the trip home in the same car would be counted separately. The original wording also doesn't limit them to downtown Ottawa but also extends to Hull, Carleton and even Kanata North (or any other destination that someone on the train might have).

I suspect nothing has actually changed and thus it isn't an issue of bad math, but an issue of the marketing folks trying to make things sound more impressive than they are without understanding the facts behind the numbers.

Even the old statement could be inaccurate. My guess (and it is just a guess) is that they are projecting that they will have 25,000 passenger trips per day. However, not everyone who would use the train would have otherwise driven to work. They may have used one of the existing rural commuter buses, or even OCTranspo (both because there will be stations inside the Urban Transit area and because some might move out of the city because of the train).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

While it does say that in the 2018 brochure, if you look at the 2015 brochure, it says "Cause 25,000 fewer car trips per day, and reduce regional car dependence;"

By saying car trips instead of cars, the trip home in the same car would be counted separately. The original wording also doesn't limit them to downtown Ottawa but also extends to Hull, Carleton and even Kanata North (or any other destination that someone on the train might have).

I suspect nothing has actually changed and thus it isn't an issue of bad math, but an issue of the marketing folks trying to make things sound more impressive than they are without understanding the facts behind the numbers.

Even the old statement could be inaccurate. My guess (and it is just a guess) is that they are projecting that they will have 25,000 passenger trips per day. However, not everyone who would use the train would have otherwise driven to work. They may have used one of the existing rural commuter buses, or even OCTranspo (both because there will be stations inside the Urban Transit area and because some might move out of the city because of the train).

It also says 30 000 passengers per day. Between the three branches that works out to 10 000 pax per day. And then 5000 trips each in the morning and afternoon/evening. At ~500 pax per train, this amounts to 10 trips each in the morning and evening. And it does say hourly service from 530am. So Charles' zany hypothetical is right. There's a scenario where somebody might not get on till 1430.

In reality, it sort of works out to six branches. Which means 5 trains at each peak per branch. Basically, they don't have slack anywhere and their plan requires perfect scheduling execution and perfect demand management based on even development at all their stops. I think Joseph Potvin wants to play Railroad Tycoon with the Ottawa Valley.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It also doesn’t explain Moose’s lack of interest in a staged implementation. A Maxville to Tremblay line could be implemented almost immediately with contracted services and leased rolling stock. Potvin is only interested in the NCR (probably the worst major city in Canada to implement this business model) only interested in the POW Bridge, only interested in bi-level rolling stock. That doesn’t sound like an evangelist for rail transport, that sounds like someone with a very specific and very local interest.

A couple factors that could explain that.

First of all Potvin is under the belief that all of the route must be inter-provincial for them to be federally regulated, so a Maxville to Tremblay (or even Smiths Falls) wouldn't be permitted. As a result the line to Maxville (Alexandria in his plan) must extend along the abandoned rail line to Bristol, QC.

Secondly, I seem to remember reading that Potvin lives on the Quebec side of the river, so I expect he wants a train that he can use.

Also, the evangelist in him may have a go big or go home attitude.

[Allandale25]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

So what happened to that $5M feasibility study backed by Asian investors? It was supposed to be finished a year ago. Any news?

This: https://www.thestar.com/news/investigati...n-deposits-and-hasnt-built-anything.html

"This condo developer collected millions in deposits — and hasn’t built anything"

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It also says 30 000 passengers per day. Between the three branches that works out to 10 000 pax per day. And then 5000 trips each in the morning and afternoon/evening. At ~500 pax per train, this amounts to 10 trips each in the morning and evening. And it does say hourly service from 530am. So Charles' zany hypothetical is right. There's a scenario where somebody might not get on till 1430.

In reality, it sort of works out to six branches. Which means 5 trains at each peak per branch. Basically, they don't have slack anywhere and their plan requires perfect scheduling execution and perfect demand management based on even development at all their stops. I think Joseph Potvin wants to play Railroad Tycoon with the Ottawa Valley.

Where is the 500 pax per train coming from that both you and Charles are using? After Stage 2 the 80m double LINTs will have a capacity of 540 passengers (the FLIRTs should be similar), The Bombardier BiLevel Coaches each have a capacity of 360 passengers and they are 26m long, so even two would have a capacity of 720 and the platforms would be long enough for 3 coaches.

I'm not saying there will be demand for that though.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Where is the 500 pax per train coming from that both you and Charles are using? After Stage 2 the 80m double LINTs will have a capacity of 540 passengers (the FLIRTs should be similar), The Bombardier BiLevel Coaches each have a capacity of 360 passengers and they are 26m long, so even two would have a capacity of 720 and the platforms would be long enough for 3 coaches.

I'm not saying there will be demand for that though.

MOOSE says 480 per train in their literature.... Don't forget they said they have cafe bars on their trains.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Don't forget they said they have cafe bars on their trains.

Of course they will.

[Kitchissippi]

But will the Smiths Falls train have a smoking car?