Amazon HQ2 thread

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

They do really well recruiting 20-somethings to Seattle, but have a much harder time getting families. That's an argument for a cheaper US city.

I agree that Toronto has a strong point about international talent. They recruit heavily from overseas to Seattle, but they'd hire way more if they could.

But every company has this problem, everywhere. It is very hard to get talent to move once they've settled down and planted roots somewhere. If that is their primary issue then they'd probably be headed to the Bay Area.

[mhays]

Bay Area companies are overflowing to other regions (Seattle perhaps most of all at the developer level) because they CAN'T do that. They have the same problem Seattle does but more acutely...they get 20-somethings (those who are ok with roommates) but not people with families.

HQ2 doesn't have to be about outdoing Seattle in recruitment, or at least they've never said anything like that. It only has to draw people who won't go to Seattle, and offer some capacity (physical, transportation, housing market) that Seattle can't offer except at significant added strain.

That's not to say Seattle can't grow. Google and Facebook have been adding numerous buildings, because of that overflow from the SF area. Edit: New report says Seattle leads in recent tech growth.

[suburbanite]

Who of the big cities left has the best housing situation for HQ2? Chicago has a good mix of affordable but trendy urban neighbourhoods as well as suburbs for families to settle down.

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't D.C. commuters already been pushed to outer limits of exurban territory? How does inner city housing cost hold up to attract young talent?

Toronto is seriously hurt in this department. Tons of young people still moving downtown but SFH affordability has been gone for years now.

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Who of the big cities left has the best housing situation for HQ2? Chicago has a good mix of affordable but trendy urban neighbourhoods as well as suburbs for families to settle down.

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't D.C. commuters already been pushed to outer limits of exurban territory? How does inner city housing cost hold up to attract young talent?

Toronto is seriously hurt in this department. Tons of young people still moving downtown but SFH affordability has been gone for years now.

Philly. Half the cost of dc or nyc, even with luxury units that have come online in the last few years and that will be coming up in the next few years. Lots of affordable housing stock right in or near center city and west Philliy.

[TR Devlin]

US News also ranks graduate engineering schools at https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-engineering-schools/eng-rankings
and business (MBA) schools at https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-business-schools/mba-rankings.

IMO, these are the rankings that would be most relevant to Amazon, or any tech company thinking about where to locate (although, unfortunately, they don’t include Canadian schools).

Top 10 engineering schools are
#1 MIT,
#2 Stanford,
#3 Cal – Berkeley,
#4 Cal Tech,
#4 Michigan,
#6 Carnegie Mellon,
#7 Purdue,
#8 Georgia Tech,
#9 Illinois,
#10 Southern Cal,
#10 Texas – Austin.

Top business schools are
#1 Harvard,
#1 Chicago (Booth),
#3 Penn (Wharton),
#4 Stanford,
#5 MIT (Sloan),
#6 Northwestern (Kellog),
#7 Cal – Berkeley (Haas),
#7 Michigan (Ross),
#9 Columbia,
#10 Dartmouth (Tuck).

Six of the 21 programs above are within 250 miles of Chicago. Now, admittedly, the reason I picked 250 miles was to include Michigan, but you can’t deny that there’s lots of talent near Chicago.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Bay Area companies are overflowing to other regions (Seattle perhaps most of all at the developer level) because they CAN'T do that. They have the same problem Seattle does but more acutely...they get 20-somethings (those who are ok with roommates) but not people with families.

HQ2 doesn't have to be about outdoing Seattle in recruitment, or at least they've never said anything like that. It only has to draw people who won't go to Seattle, and offer some capacity (physical, transportation, housing market) that Seattle can't offer except at significant added strain.

That's not to say Seattle can't grow. Google and Facebook have been adding numerous buildings, because of that overflow from the SF area. Edit: New report says Seattle leads in recent tech growth.

My point is that if this is about competing for seasoned talent then they won't do better than the Bay Area. At every career-level, that is the deepest talent pool in the country for their industry. We already agreed that they probably don't have much trouble bringing entry level workers to Seattle from within the U.S.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

The cities that have had return visits by HQ2 people:
Miami
Chicago
All the DC ones
NYC/Newark

The cities that have not had follow up visits:
Denver
Philadelphia
Austin
Pittsburgh
Raleigh

The rest of the cities we don't really have a sense of except, of course, that there's no way it'll be in Toronto.

If Bezos believes in climate change than Miami would have to be a huge mistake.

Shame if Pittsburgh is ruled out, the best way to diffuse US polarization is to bring the New Economy into other areas besides coastal cities.

[BrownTown]

I still have my doubts that being close to colleges is as important as people say it is. I went to one of the top colleges listed in this thread and when I graduated me and all my friends scattered to the four winds. Literally not a single person I knew stayed in state. Admittedly that is a limited sample size as I'm no social butterfly, but still I think the point is relevant.

I would very much like to see the new HQ located in a non-coastal state, but I think the probability of that is very small. Just keep it the hell away from me though, I don't want to pay all the taxes for it.

[dubu]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

I still have my doubts that being close to colleges is as important as people say it is. I went to one of the top colleges listed in this thread and when I graduated me and all my friends scattered to the four winds. Literally not a single person I knew stayed in state. Admittedly that is a limited sample size as I'm no social butterfly, but still I think the point is relevant.

I would very much like to see the new HQ located in a non-coastal state, but I think the probability of that is very small. Just keep it the hell away from me though, I don't want to pay all the taxes for it.

Thats all ive thoghought about this thing. Put it in denver you fuck head amazonians

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

My point is that if this is about competing for seasoned talent then they won't do better than the Bay Area. At every career-level, that is the deepest talent pool in the country for their industry. We already agreed that they probably don't have much trouble bringing entry level workers to Seattle from within the U.S.

No they wouldn't. Outside of the star players who earn several hundred thousand a year or more, it's very hard to get mid-career family-type people to move there. Further, the biggest talent pool in the world is only exceeded by the demand for that talent, which makes it very expensive even when you can find people.

And, probably not coincidentally, Amazon didn't really consider the area.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Chicago has a massive amount of talent as any HR Director knows, but Amazon desires and eastern time zone which puts Chicago at a huge disadvantage.

What nonsense is this?

[SpongeG]

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[Crawford]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Toronto is seriously hurt in this department. Tons of young people still moving downtown but SFH affordability has been gone for years now.

20-somethings don't want a SFH in sprawl. And Toronto's downtown housing isn't particularly expensive. Apples-to-apples probably cheaper than any first-tier American city.

Toronto is kinda like Bay Area, where the housing is really shockingly expensive in sprawl, but the urban housing is not that expensive (relative to overall regional prices). In most other first-tier metros, there's a huge gap between apples-to-apples urban and suburban housing.

I don't think Toronto has much of a chance, though, because it doesn't have the innovation culture and makes no political sense for a behemoth facing inevitable forced breakup. And I think this "decision" was made years ago.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

I still have my doubts that being close to colleges is as important as people say it is. I went to one of the top colleges listed in this thread and when I graduated me and all my friends scattered to the four winds.

I don't understand this either. Top-tier universities spread their graduates around the globe. Obviously they're more concentrated in desirable locales with prestigious industries, but it isn't like you can't get a Columbia grad to move to Silicon Valley, or a Stanford grad to move to NYC.

And there are lots of top-tier universities that don't have much of a job market in their immediate surroundings. Cornell (the Ithaca-based schools, obviously not the NYC-based schools), Dartmouth, Amherst, Williams, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Virginia, etc. Also, lots of big, quality state universities located in nowheresville (Penn State, UCSB, UC-Davis, Florida, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, UConn, A&M, etc.).

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by mhays

No they wouldn't. Outside of the star players who earn several hundred thousand a year or more, it's very hard to get mid-career family-type people to move there.

I think it's very hard to get mid-career family-type people to move anywhere.

I wouldn't move somewhere else if I was offered double the salary, and it has nothing really to do with NYC. My wife has a good job here, my kid is in school here, our friends are here, and we're rooted and happy.

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by Crawford

20-somethings don't want a SFH in sprawl. And Toronto's downtown housing isn't particularly expensive. Apples-to-apples probably cheaper than any first-tier American city.

Toronto is kinda like Bay Area, where the housing is really shockingly expensive in sprawl, but the urban housing is not that expensive (relative to overall regional prices). In most other first-tier metros, there's a huge gap between apples-to-apples urban and suburban housing.

That's the point, I'm assuming Amazon is going to be looking for a mix of both since they are not hiring only 20 somethings or only established families. Toronto has only recently started to catch up to the likes of a Chicago or Boston around the $2200/month range for a 1 bedroom and $3000 for a two bedroom downtown apartment. It holds it's own in that area, assuming not many people at this new office will be making less than $50k. Urban SFH is off the table for any household making less than $250k nowadays.

[pico44]

My early money was with Philly and I'm gonna stick with them. A short drive/train/flight to the south and you've got their lobbyists and a pretty significant media presence. To the north and you've got another huge corporate presence in the world's business center. Anther jaunt up the coast and you've got a massive tech, innovation and education hub. Boston, NYC and D.C. have all become ridiculously prosperous (I agree with most that they are probably prohibitively so); and philly is like a cheap house in a great neighborhood. A bargain property that most companies don't have the capital to fix up to their former glory. What other city has such amazing bones along with great history and culture at such a low price? Chicago is the only obvious answer and I think they are probably number two in the running, but Philly has two wild cards I think. Location, as I've stated, and politics. Bezos is a passionate democrat, and Pennsylvania is our biggest swing state. Add 50,000 progressively minded young adults and you move the needle of the entire country. Remember, they made this announcement not so long after Trump came to power. This might not be business strategy, it might be political strategy.

[JManc]

And these tech companies aren't all about prospective employees from the top colleges. I went to a state university and had Facebook reach out to me for a really great opportunity. If you're 23 with no experience, then yeah, where you went to school matters but after a while, employers don't give a shit.

[pico44]

I suspect Amazon has known the winner from the very beginning stages of this process. It's a good business move. If you want tax breaks, free land and building/infrastructure bonds; do you go up to city and beg for them? Or do you have them give it to you without asking for it, all the while making them feel like they won the gawd-damned powerball

[LouisVanDerWright]

So much facepalm in this thread which is probably why it's been intermittently closed.

Originally Posted by Crawford

It isn't going to be an issue, and that makes no sense, either by city or metro.

Boston has none in city and 2 total in metro. Chicago has 1 in city and 2 total in metro (Notre Dame is in South Bend, which isn't part of CSA).

Because arbitrary census definitions are definitely how most new grads determine where they will relocate to. Chicago is swimming in Domers, it's quite obnoxious actually. ND is a Chicago area school CSA or not.

And this is all crap. This is a back office, Amazon isn't a super-prestige employer, and a dollar is a dollar everywhere within national boundaries.

If they wanted cheap living, there are no remaining candidates except maybe Raleigh (which is still more expensive than national norms). Good schools and family-sized house for professional will run 500k+ in all these metros.

Who said this isn't a back office, I'm not the one posting "engineering school rankings", this will be mostly sales, accounting, marketing, HR, or that type of thing. Just like the giant Google office that just added 136k SF, and the giant 250k SF lease Facebook just signed, and also just like the 500k SF Salesforce office just announced in Chicago. Chicago probably has the deepest and most diverse talent pool in the country for these kinds of back office corporate operations, we kinda specialize in providing that kind of stuff.

Also lol at the notion that a SFH is $500k+ in the Chicago metro. Maybe that's what it will cost you to be in a good school district in the city proper, but in very few Chicago suburbs will you have to pay $500k+ to get a "family sized home". I was literally just at dinner with friends of mine who were telling me about the 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath house they are buying a few blocks from the Metra in Brookfield, IL. They are paying $276k and it's mostly updated and on a nearly 10,000 SF lot...

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Chicago has a massive amount of talent as any HR Director knows, but Amazon desires and eastern time zone which puts Chicago at a huge disadvantage.

Lolwut? When did Amazon say that, is that why like 50%+ of the finalists aren't in the EST?

Originally Posted by emathias

What nonsense is this?

It's right up there with the "Bezos bought a hotdog here, must be moving HQ2" and "Bezos wants political influence in Washington so he's going to put HQ2 somewhere that has no representation in Washington and whose motto is literally 'taxation without representation'" theories.

Originally Posted by JManc

The more boosterism I see from Chicago, the more I want to see a Walmart or a Dollar General distribution center built on the site of their proposed HQ2 location.

How is posting a list of the US News top 20 universities when everyone is talking about top universities boosterism?

Originally Posted by suburbanite

That's the point, I'm assuming Amazon is going to be looking for a mix of both since they are not hiring only 20 somethings or only established families. Toronto has only recently started to catch up to the likes of a Chicago or Boston around the $2200/month range for a 1 bedroom and $3000 for a two bedroom downtown apartment. It holds it's own in that area, assuming not many people at this new office will be making less than $50k. Urban SFH is off the table for any household making less than $250k nowadays.

Lol, Chicago is just catching up with Chicago on those numbers, we've never really had rents that high downtown and even now it's not quite that except in the brand new full amenity luxury buildings. I'm leasing out huge 4BD/2BA brand new units one block from the Pink Line and a 10 minute ride to the West Loop and a 15 minute ride to the Loop for $2250. Chicago is not as expensive as you think it is. My 3Bds range from $1550-$1750 and my 2 Bds range from $1250-$1450. So yeah if you want a carwash in the parking garage, a full time sushi chef on the amenity level, and a doggie bidet in the dog run, then yeah you can pay up to $3/SF/Mo for apartments here, but 95%+ of the market is wayyyyy below that.