YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion - Page 685

LeftCoaster · #**13681** Posted **Oct 26, 2018, 10:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

SQ might be launching SEA next year, apparently.

Now that is a surprise. I would have thought YVR would get service before SEA.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/t...nVvQTkuu9_H9icPJ0hrg0#Echobox=1540337727

It just says SEA will be the next US destination. It doesn't say anything about YVR or Canada.

Hell, it doesn't even say they won't launch YVR before SEA.

I could see them launching both, with SEA serving US connecting PAX and YVR serving Canadian PAX.

Like I pointed out a few months ago they have A LOT of widebody seats to fill with their big orders.

WestCoastEcho · #**13682** Posted **Oct 27, 2018, 12:46 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

It just says SEA will be the next US destination. It doesn't say anything about YVR or Canada.

Hell, it doesn't even say they won't launch YVR before SEA.

I could see them launching both, with SEA serving US connecting PAX and YVR serving Canadian PAX.

Like I pointed out a few months ago they have A LOT of widebody seats to fill with their big orders.

I don't think Singapore Airlines will have that big of capacity glut; for one, they tend to retire aircraft fairly young. Something about that being advantageous for them in terms of taxes and resale value.

Galaxy · #**13683** Posted **Oct 27, 2018, 2:01 AM**

http://www.traveller.com.au/first-two-retired-a380-superjumbos-to-be-broken-up-for-parts-h110ps

They also return their planes back to companies they lease their planes from early I am guessing so that the owners of the planes can still resell and get a decent resale value on the used market.

trofirhen · #**13684** Posted **Oct 27, 2018, 2:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

It just says SEA will be the next US destination. It doesn't say anything about YVR or Canada.

Hell, it doesn't even say they won't launch YVR before SEA.

I could see them launching both, with SEA serving US connecting PAX and YVR serving Canadian PAX.

Like I pointed out a few months ago they have A LOT of widebody seats to fill with their big orders.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

I don't think Singapore Airlines will have that big of capacity glut; for one, they tend to retire aircraft fairly young. Something about that being advantageous for them in terms of taxes and resale value.

I think this is one major destination where has SEA has YVR beat, big time (for a while, anyway), ... the other being DXB.

zahav · #**13685** Posted **Oct 27, 2018, 7:22 AM**

I don't see them launching both SEA and YVR, that is too close too soon. I feel like SEA isn't a good route for SQ though, the tech travel alone doesn't justify it. I feel like NYC, SFO, and LAX make sense totally, but neither YVR or SEA really do to that degree. YVR makes more sense than SEA tbh, I feel like there's some reason they aren't starting YVR that is pushing them to choose SEA

thenoflyzone · #**13686** Posted **Oct 27, 2018, 11:49 AM**

SEA-SIN O&D last year was around 26,000
YVR-SIN O&D is around 30-35,000

Not much between the two. SEA has more premium demand, so the more I think about, the more it makes sense, especially since SQ and Alaska Airlines launched a codeshare agreement and frequent flyer partnership last year. (which I didn't know about until a few days ago)

https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/es/me...=en_UK/2017/July-September/ne1517-170831

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav

I don't see them launching both SEA and YVR, that is too close too soon.

I agree. They wont launch both, at least not in the short term. Whoever gets SIN first will have SQ to themselves for quite a while.

Although they haven't said it in as many words, seems like SIN-SEA is a real possibility.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav

I feel like SEA isn't a good route for SQ though, the tech travel alone doesn't justify it.

That's why they have a new codehare agreement with Alaska.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav

I feel like NYC, SFO, and LAX make sense totally, but neither YVR or SEA really do to that degree. YVR makes more sense than SEA tbh, I feel like there's some reason they aren't starting YVR that is pushing them to choose SEA

Both routes aren't automatic winners. SQ hasn't confirmed SEA, just rumors for now.

One thing is for sure, not much separates SEA and YVR ref. SIN service. However, with the recent codeshare with Alaska and more premium demand south of the border, SEA has the edge.

mezzanine · #**13687** Posted **Oct 27, 2018, 8:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

SEA-SIN O&D last year was around 26,000
YVR-SIN O&D is around 30-35,000

One thing is for sure, not much separates SEA and YVR ref. SIN service. However, with the recent codeshare with Alaska and more premium demand south of the border, SEA has the edge.

IMO, whatever happens in SEA will be independent of what happens at YVR, and YVR still >>SEA.

-it's probably safe to assume that arriving and transferring anywhere in the USA is 10x more 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 than in Canada. Canada also allows TWOV for thai and Indonesian nationals, who may use SIN to travel to NA.

-AK's code share really would work out of any west coast airport. SQ traffic could transfer to AK flights from SFO, LAX or even YVR and still get benefits.

-the difference between O+D from SEA and YVR by your numbers isn't nothing

- JL and CX will also start TPAC service next year from SEA. not sure how much more new TPAC traffic can be absorbed sustainably.

I suspect that AC may be SQ's frienemy at YVR and may be wanting to start service first before SQ, similar to what UA did at SFO.

I suppose we will see what happens..

Johnny Aussie · #**13688** Posted **Oct 29, 2018, 2:38 AM**

Of the 18 long haul carriers that will be flying out of SEA after JAL and CX commence... 12 also fly out of YVR.

6 fly out of SEA and not YVR. Those being: Aer Lingus, Asiana, Emirates, Norwegian, Thomas Cook, Virgin Atlantic.

Meanwhile YVR has 13 long haul carriers that don’t fly to SEA.

So any airline that flies to SEA or YVR certainly doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t fly from both. This is far from a done deal so let’s see what excitement unfolds over the next little while.

nname · #**13689** Posted **Oct 30, 2018, 6:03 AM**

The answer to the mystery was finally revealed....

Code:

AC 818	333 (255)	246	YUL - DUB	21:15 - 08:30
AC 819	333 (255)	246	DUB - YUL	10:15 - 12:05

AC 862	333 (255)	1357	YVR - DUB	15:20 - 08:30
AC 863	333 (255)	1357	DUB - YVR	10:15 - 11:40

Johnny Aussie · #**13690** Posted **Oct 30, 2018, 6:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

The answer to the mystery was finally revealed....

Code:

AC 818	333 (255)	246	YUL - DUB	21:15 - 08:30
AC 819	333 (255)	246	DUB - YUL	10:15 - 12:05

AC 862	333 (255)	1357	YVR - DUB	15:20 - 08:30
AC 863	333 (255)	1357	DUB - YVR	10:15 - 11:40

Well done!

Based on what you told us last week I even checked this morning and it still showed rouge (

)

We definitely knew it had to rotate through DUB.

This was the most logical answer to the question.

YVR is officially de-rouged and another mainline AC long haul destination for YVR.

nname · #**13691** Posted **Oct 30, 2018, 6:10 AM**

It was just loaded about 15min ago... still very fresh

Today they started more than 1hr late, so didn't get to the 800s until about 2am eastern time (usually it's 1am)

Now AC is loading the UA codeshares... still about 1hr till the update for AC express

========================

Another thing I've noticed... Summer 2019 schedule supposed to end at October 26th? As of tonight, AC timetable is now loaded until October 30th, so we get to see the first 4 day of whatever is being modified for the W19 schedule?

For YVR-KIX, the timetable currently shows

5x weekly all the way to the end of the summer schedule (Oct 26), and then

YVR-KIX Oct 29, 30
KIX-YVR Oct 30

Possibility of KIX becoming year-round?

YVR-FRA (AC840) is also loaded daily until Oct 30 (so far)

Last DUB flight is Oct 14
Last CDG flight is Oct 13
Last ZRH flight is Oct 12

Johnny Aussie · #**13692** Posted **Oct 30, 2018, 9:40 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

Another thing I've noticed... Summer 2019 schedule supposed to end at October 26th? As of tonight, AC timetable is now loaded untilFor YVR-KIX, the timetable currently shows

5x weekly all the way to the end of the summer schedule (Oct 26), and then

YVR-KIX Oct 29, 30
KIX-YVR Oct 30

Possibility of KIX becoming year-round?

YVR-FRA (AC840) is also loaded daily until Oct 30 (so far)

Last DUB flight is Oct 14
Last CDG flight is Oct 13
Last ZRH flight is Oct 12

This list got me thinking...

AC has added 8 mainline long haul routes out of YVR in the last 2 years:

MEL, DEL, TPE, KIX, FRA, CDG, ZRH and DUB.

Now a total of 16.

LeftCoaster · #**13693** Posted **Oct 30, 2018, 5:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

SEA-SIN O&D last year was around 26,000
YVR-SIN O&D is around 30-35,000

Not much between the two. SEA has more premium demand, so the more I think about, the more it makes sense, especially since SQ and Alaska Airlines launched a codeshare agreement and frequent flyer partnership last year. (which I didn't know about until a few days ago)

https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/es/me...=en_UK/2017/July-September/ne1517-170831

Why do you say SEA has more premium demand to SIN?

The amount of HNW individuals in Vancouver with ties to Singapore is not insignificant. Seattle has tech industry ties to Singapore but few finance ties which Vancouver would have more of. Add in the fact that YVR-SIN would be the de-facto Canadian route while SIN-SEA would need to compete with SQs numerous existing US routes, I think the YVR-SIN route would be pretty attractive in comparison.

Given the US/Canada divide I also don't see YVR and SEA negating each-other since they are both chasing PAX from different countries.

thenoflyzone · #**13694** Posted **Oct 31, 2018, 12:30 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well if it is 3x YUL-DUB on an A333 Vs 4x on a 737MAX its not that big a boost. 795 seats Vs 676 seats.

It's actually 876 vs 676. AC's A333s seat 292.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Why do you say SEA has more premium demand to SIN?

Not just to SIN. I meant in general.

SEA, and the US in general, is higher yielding than Canada, and that includes YYZ, YVR or YUL.

You dont see UA or AA carry 450 passengers on their 77Ws. There's a reason for that. Just like you dont see AC carry 60 business class seats (UA) or 8 First and 52 business seats (AA) on their 77Ws.

Alexcaban · #**13695** Posted **Oct 31, 2018, 2:35 AM**

It's going to be the SQ A333's deployed to the route so it will be a 30/255 = 285

mezzanine · #**13696** Posted **Oct 31, 2018, 4:29 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Not just to SIN. I meant in general.

SEA, and the US in general, is higher yielding than Canada, and that includes YYZ, YVR or YUL.

You dont see UA or AA carry 450 passengers on their 77Ws. There's a reason for that. Just like you dont see AC carry 60 business class seats (UA) or 8 First and 52 business seats (AA) on their 77Ws.

I dunno. IMO it's not so easy to generalize about viability and the O+D market. Delta couldn't make a go of it and had to cancel its SEA-HKG flight this year. CX only announced service to SEA once delta cancelled their route.

Seattle is only starting to catch up to YVR with TPAC flights. SEA not YVR has OZ AFAIK, but even ignoring canadian and mainland carriers, seattle lacks service from NZ, PR and CI. Even qantas serves YVR seasonally and not SEA.

Even the SIN market is finicky. UA had to cancel its SIN-LAX flights as it saw it less viable than SFO double daily.

Like I said time will tell. I suspect if there is a planned flight to the PNW, i suspect a lot of jawing between AC, SQ and the YVR and SEA airport authorities.

LeftCoaster · #**13697** Posted **Nov 1, 2018, 12:28 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Not just to SIN. I meant in general.

SEA, and the US in general, is higher yielding than Canada, and that includes YYZ, YVR or YUL.

You dont see UA or AA carry 450 passengers on their 77Ws. There's a reason for that. Just like you dont see AC carry 60 business class seats (UA) or 8 First and 52 business seats (AA) on their 77Ws.

I'm sure you're right on the whole, but YVR to China, and I would also lump Singapore in that bucket, is probably higher yielding than SEA. The Chinese diaspora in Vancouver has a very wealthy sub-section to it and the Singapore-Vancouver connection is very much that sub section. If you have a house in Singapore and in Vancouver, 99% chance you're flying paid J.

nname · #**13698** Posted **Nov 1, 2018, 1:03 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

If you have a house in Singapore and in Vancouver, 99% chance you're flying paid J.

There is actually not many very wealthy people who don't care about how much they spend. The vast majority of them will find the cheapest Y. That's why AC have no problem filling those 450 seats slave ships, and the Chinese airlines are also starting to phase out F class.

Most people with one or two house are not really that wealthy. They just see real estate as a form of investment, with much better return than, say.. stock or bond market, or just putting money in the bank. So many would rather put money in real estate than the bank, or even things like RRSP. Of course, for those who got dozens of houses, then it's a different story...

thenoflyzone · #**13699** Posted **Nov 1, 2018, 11:24 AM**

Now official. 4x weekly. begins Sept 2019.

https://www.portseattle.org/news/singapore-airlines-announces-nonstop-service-sea-tac-airport

thenoflyzone · #**13700** Posted **Nov 1, 2018, 4:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

This is far from a done deal so let’s see what excitement unfolds over the next little while.

obviously not that far.....

A slap in the face of YVRAA, that's for sure. (similar to BA choosing Charleston over St. Louis)

SEA catching up to YVR, slowly but surely. When the new IAF opens, more international routes will open up at SEA, further solidifying the Emerald City as a TPAC hub.

AC wont be launching SIN anytime soon. No planes left. Neither will SQ in the short to medium term (according to me, although several disagree).

One thing is for sure, this came out of left field. So does SQ have another surprise in store? If so, how likely is it to be SIN-YVR?