Quote:
Originally Posted by Denscity
AC must be pretty happy with YVR to expand to 4 different parts of the world.
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Looking at AC's YVR expansion over the past three years has been nothing short of remarkable. I think the WS expansion at YYC will only further strengthen and consolidate AC's hub at YVR. YVR's advantage over YYC is a much larger significant O&D.. not only for VFR and tourism but also a significantly larger premium base.
Of course WS will try and funnel YVR traffic through YYC which WS will no doubt be depending on to make these new routes work. WS is definitely going to depend on connecting traffic to make these new routes work. That by nature automatically puts pressure on yields from the get go.
Look at the pattern of long haul international flights out of YYC over the last 7 years.... it indicates how tricky long haul international is out of there.
Not just to Europe but Asia as well.
To Europe:
TS has reduced YYC to just 3 weekly LGW and 1 weekly AMS. TS has also reduced YVR but certainly not as much by maintaining many routes YYC lost. YVR does lose one weekly to GLA.
LH dropped YYC-FRA - meanwhile YVR gained daily MUC and a second daily FRA (on AC).
BA suspending YYC-LHR (temporarily at least) on its smallest long-haul aircraft - YVR gains an A380
AC has basically kept YYC stagnant over the last few years and have wound back services on many routes within North America. They basically only serve the two largest markets U.K. (Still by far #1) and Germany. YVR gained CDG, ZRH, DUB, second daily LHR and FRA as mentioned above.
DE, WK and KL have remained basically stagnant as well over the last few years. While all serving YVR with more frequencies except KL where YVR and YYC are equal in summer but YYC remains daily year round. However, it appears KL is rolling back YYC service back to a 333 - fewer and not fully flat J class whereas YVR back to their 772 larger J and fully lie flat.
And to Asia:
AC suspending NRT
HU reducing PEK to just 2 weekly.
YYC to Asia will have just 2 weekly flights to Asia this winter.
Meanwhile YVR has expanded to Asia/South Pacific all over the shop.
Of course some passengers will be lost to WS via YYC. The low hanging fruit lowest fare buckets may actually stimulate more travel.
But it's technically Westjet's game to lose as it gambles on building up YYC.
YYC's advantage over YVR to Europe of course is and always will be geography.
YVR's advantage over YYC to Asia of course is and always will be geography.... but YVR's much larger O&D base is more pronounced to Asia/Pacific.
I wouldn't be surprised if AC further winds back YYC and as I said at the beginning consolidates even more at YVR. YVR's strengths will probably help this work in the long run: continuing to grow, a strong economy and the lowest unemployment rate in the country.
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