Rural Commuter Rail

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

At least, Mr. Potvin had a harebrained scheme to sell real estate in those towns to fund his choo-choo.

Got any pointers to info on MOOSE's hairbrained scheme to sell real estate? It's news to me.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

This is what Doucet should've gone with IMO (in addition to all existing plans). 30kms of existing tracks serving Kanata North, Bells Corners, Centerpointe, Merivale, Riverside, Sheffield rd.
Mostly a matter of building a few simple stations, sidings and political will to negotiate with VIA and NIMBYs. Extend to Anrprior and Limoges if it makes sense.

I agree with this. Ottawa definitely could and should have commuter rail, but it should serve the big three suburbs and a handful of stops within the greenbelt.

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

His estimate is even lower than MOOSE's (~$60 million). Both are significantly lower than the city's guess (~$200 million+?).

MOOSE's engineering firm REMISZ Consulting Engineers put the PoWB refurbishment at about $50M, incl. cantilevered cycling and pedestrian trails, and seismic upgrades. The preliminary study has been online for more than 2 yrs. MOOSE has proposed to finance that with private sector investment in exchange for running rights on City of Ottawa track.

The 2016 dismantlement and obstruction of the approach track at Bayview, in violation of Section 142 of the Canada Transportation Act now adds about $25M to the cost of running conventional trains through there, based on the REMISZ preliminary estimate. MOOSE has also proposed to finance that with private sector investment in exchange for running rights on City of Ottawa track -- in effect, it would only mean that we'd be running on City track several more years before Ottawa citizens would see lease fees showiing up in the City's financial statements. But we've designed our financing plan to not burden taxpayers.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin

But we've designed our financing plan to not burden taxpayers.

Except for all the second order burdens created by the massive sprawl that MOOSE needs to support their plans....

[silvergate]

Originally Posted by Jamaican-Phoenix

I agree with this. Ottawa definitely could and should have commuter rail, but it should serve the big three suburbs and a handful of stops within the greenbelt.

By Stage 3, that's essentially what Confed and Trillium are doing. They might have a few extra stops, but wouldn't building a quicker commuter rail just cannibalize riders from that line?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by silvergate

By Stage 3, that's essentially what Confed and Trillium are doing. They might have a few extra stops, but wouldn't building a quicker commuter rail just cannibalize riders from that line?

If commuter rail ever gets built in Ottawa, it'll be the end of LRT expansion. It'll absorb a lot of the peak riders and destroy any motivation for higher governments to spend billions building LRT. And all that just to transfer at Bayview!

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

If commuter rail ever gets built in Ottawa ... It'll absorb a lot of the peak riders and destroy any motivation for higher governments to spend billions building LRT.

How about that, folks. Truenorth00 and I agree about something!

As for his notion that "it'll be the end of LRT expansion", nah.

Who financed and built Ottawa's original electric LRT? Government or the private sector?

Who demolished Ottawa's original electric LRT? Government or the private sector?

Now, as for thinking up ways to motivate higher governments to spend billions of dollars, back when I was on the core drafting team for Canada's Green Plan, we did conceptualize a mission-critical thing or two in the recommendations that -- 30 years later -- still await serious attention.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[OCCheetos]

@Joseph Potvin

Based on what you've said in some interviews, am I correct in assuming that the disruption of the track at Bayview is the only reason investors haven't given MOOSE the money it needs to proceed with its feasibility study?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin

How about that, folks. Truenorth00 and I agree about something!

I'm glad we agree that you don't give a rat's behind about people who actually use transit today.

Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin

As for his notion that "it'll be the end of LRT expansion", nah.

Who financed and built Ottawa's original electric LRT? Government or the private sector?

Who demolished Ottawa's original electric LRT? Government or the private sector?

And yet your goal isn't to build urban transit. So your red herring is pointless.

If the private sector is so great why aren't they rushing to build service for the 100 million transit rides that Ottawa takes every year?

But then we know the private sector is more interested in selling real estate than building transit.

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

@Joseph Potvin
Based on what you've said in some interviews, am I correct in assuming that the disruption of the track at Bayview is the only reason investors haven't given MOOSE the money it needs to proceed with its feasibility study?

Well, the reason you're paraphrasing is because that's not precisely what I said. Your insertion of the word "only" morphs the meaning of what I did say.

The current mayor has gone to the length of ordering the dismantlement of a section of federal railway in violation of Division V of the Canada Transportation Act. I'm told it was in order to keep transit inefficient to and from areas outside his own property tax base (i.e. that's exactly what a senior City official explained to me; that's is not my explanation.) Well if that mayor is then followed by a mayor who shares the vision of regional planners worldwide, including planners at the NCC, and indeed senior staff of the City of Ottawa, then yes, capital investors will feel a heck of a lot more comfortable putting down funds of the necessary scale. Considerable investment has already been made in the MOOSE initiative, but all of us, including me, understand that parochialism is alive and well in Canada's Capital, so first things first.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by silvergate

By Stage 3, that's essentially what Confed and Trillium are doing. They might have a few extra stops, but wouldn't building a quicker commuter rail just cannibalize riders from that line?

As was shown elsewhere on this forum, commuter rail to Kanata would actually result in a longer commute than LRT (because of the long, circuitous route and slow acceleration of commuter rail trains) and would require an additional transfer.

As for Barrhaven, Moose's plan has the station in a location that would be inconvenient for the existing 80,000 residents, so LRT would still be faster.

Orleans and Riverside south would not be served by commuter rail, so LRT would be the only option (assuming the Trillium Line could still be operational).

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by roger1818

As was shown elsewhere on this forum, commuter rail to Kanata would actually result in a longer commute than LRT (because of the long, circuitous route and slow acceleration of commuter rail trains) and would require an additional transfer.

Is somebody suggesting there's a binary choice to be made between public sector LRT vs private sector whole-region passenger rail? And are you saying the main line and LRT line to the west would be adjacent to each other? How many LRT stops and transfers will here be between Kanata and, say, Place du Portage in Gatineau? How many regional passenger rail stops and transfers will there be?


RE: As for Barrhaven, Moose's plan has the station in a location that would be inconvenient for the existing 80,000 residents, so LRT would still be faster.

Can you let us know where in Barrhaven the station will be in Moose's plan? I wasn't aware a station location had been selected yet, since we've not yet run the RfP for station developers.


Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

@Joseph Potvin

Based on what you've said in some interviews, am I correct in assuming that the disruption of the track at Bayview is the only reason investors haven't given MOOSE the money it needs to proceed with its feasibility study?

The modification to the tracks occurred in 2016, 5 years after Mr. Potvin went public with this plan. There is a pretty extensive discussion on this thread with the problems with the business plan that would surely scare off investors regardless of any modifications made to the track.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin

Is somebody suggesting there's a binary choice to be made between public sector LRT vs private sector whole-region passenger rail?

Not Binary, but when there is direct competition, both systems will have reduced ridership.

And are you saying the main line and LRT line to the west would be adjacent to each other?

No, I never said that. In fact I said the LRT would have a much shorter route than the "main line." Not sure how that is possible if they are adjacent to each other.

How many LRT stops and transfers will here be between Kanata and, say, Place du Portage in Gatineau? How many regional passenger rail stops and transfers will there be?

Far more people commute from Kanata to downtown Ottawa than to Gatineua, but you are right, in that case the number of transfers will be the same, so to humour you, I will do a comparative analysis of the two routes. For this analysis I will assume the following:

• The person lives near a MOOSE Rail station at March Rd and Carling Ave.
• Stage 3 LRT is complete, so it has been extended to at least Eagleson Station.
• The Moose Trains have an average speed of 50km/h
• The distance from March Rd and Carling Ave to Taché-uqo is 30 km (measured along existing track on Google Maps).
• The travel time from Eagleson to Pimisi on LRT will be about 25 minutes.*

* It is estimated that it will be less than 25 minutes from Moodie to "Downtown," so since Eagleson to Pimisi has the same number of stops but is further (all through greenbelt), 25 minutes is a reasonable assumption (though I could be off by a couple minutes).

From this I would calculate the time on Moose from March to Taché-uqo (30 km / 50 km/h) * 60 min/h = 36 minutes.
Plus a 5 minute bus ride to Place du Portage for a total travel time of 41 mintues.

Via LRT, it is 5 minutes on bus to the Eagleson station, plus 25 minutes on via LRT to Pimisi and 9 minutes for a total travel time of 39 mintues.

So even for someone who is in a prime location to take Moose, it would be faster to take Bus-LRT-Bus than Moose-Bus.

I didn't take transfer times into account, but most people will have to make 2 transfers either way so that balances out for them. Also Moose will have much less frequent service than the LRT will have, so it will make for poorer transfers.

Can you let us know where in Barrhaven the station will be in Moose's plan? I wasn't aware a station location had been selected yet, since we've not yet run the RfP for station developers.

I have said before that I expect it will be somewhere near Mckenna Casey Drive so that it will be near new developments (there is no develop-able land near Fallowfield Station). I don't know where else you would put it as most of the land beside the track through is all built up. I have stated this before and you have never objected to it.

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not Binary, but when there is direct competition, both systems will have reduced ridership.

Intercity rail, and regional passenger rail, and local LRT, and bus services are synergistic. We are getting people of cars. Do you think these are not synergistic?

Originally Posted by roger1818

No, I never said that. In fact I said the LRT would have a much shorter route than the "main line." Not sure how that is possible if they are adjacent to each other.

If you look at MOOSE's "Property-Powered Rail" business strategy, our target market is within 0.8 km of each station, multiplied by about 50 stations. We intend for a train service to generate income and asset value-added on about 100 square km of commercial and residential property, selected through an open and fair RfP process, optimized for optimal value increment within a set of constraints (our own "form-based codes" and municipal bylaws, etc.) Those value increments will be shared under a negotiated formula via a distributed e-commerce/payments application.

In that scenario, any LRT line that extends the diveristy of places that our target market can go will be good for our business. And our service will also increase the number of people who take that LRT. Same for buses.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I didn't take transfer times into account, but most people will have to make 2 transfers either way so that balances out for them. Also Moose will have much less frequent service than the LRT will have, so it will make for poorer transfers.

One transfer via MOOSE from Kanata to PdP. And Gatineau has already approved an electric LRT from Aylmer that will pass right by PdP.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I have said before that I expect it will be somewhere near Mckenna Casey Drive so that it will be near new developments (there is no develop-able land near Fallowfield Station). I don't know where else you would put it as most of the land beside the track through is all built up. I have stated this before and you have never objected to it.

If your rationale were valid, there would be no competition amongst localities to get the Barrhaven station location. There will be competition beyond your assumed prime spot, I can assure you. MOOSE's "Linked Localities" approach is suited to all sorts of scenarios.

BTW, I'll "go quiet" again on this blog. There's lots happening on this topic in the current Ottawa election process. Stay tuned.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[Truenorth00]

"There's a lot happening". Lol. Potvin is now a troll hoping for a Hail Mary where Clive Doucet gets elected and cancels Stage 2 with all the councillors voting for it and west-end conservative MPPs going along with it.

@Joseph Potvin. How about you stay silent till you have an actual investor who is publicly willing to invest millions in you?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Joseph Potvin

Intercity rail, and regional passenger rail, and local LRT, and bus services are synergistic. We are getting people of cars. Do you think these are not synergistic?

It's both. They can be synergistic if properly coordinated, but to some extent they will also compete with each other in places they overlap.

One note, I would define what Moose is proposing to be Commuter Rail not Regional Rail.

If you look at MOOSE's "Property-Powered Rail" business strategy, our target market is within 0.8 km of each station, multiplied by about 50 stations. We intend for a train service to generate income and asset value-added on about 100 square km of commercial and residential property, selected through an open and fair RfP process, optimized for optimal value increment within a set of constraints (our own "form-based codes" and municipal bylaws, etc.) Those value increments will be shared under a negotiated formula via a distributed e-commerce/payments application.

In that scenario, any LRT line that extends the diveristy of places that our target market can go will be good for our business. And our service will also increase the number of people who take that LRT. Same for buses.

You will only increase the number of people who take that LRT because you can't run trains downtown, so unlike other commuter rail systems, everyone has to transfer to get to where they are going. Part of your business model is that you expect a free transfer for all of your riders with minimal cost to Moose. That is a very small increase in revenue for OC Transpo for a large increase in cost per passenger.

One transfer via MOOSE from Kanata to PdP.

For people within market, yes, but it will be a one transfer, infrequent milk run vs. a two transfer, frequent shortcut. The reality is few people live within your 800m catchment, of either Kanata station as the lines run beside the business park. They could be used as destination stations for that, but that would require significant infrastructure upgrades as the streets are not very pedestrian friendly.

And Gatineau has already approved an electric LRT from Aylmer that will pass right by PdP.

It hasn't been approved. It is a proposal and part of that proposal has trains use the POW Bridge.

If your rationale were valid, there would be no competition amongst localities to get the Barrhaven station location. There will be competition beyond your assumed prime spot, I can assure you. MOOSE's "Linked Localities" approach is suited to all sorts of scenarios.

BTW, I'll "go quiet" again on this blog. There's lots happening on this topic in the current Ottawa election process. Stay tuned.

It is an internet forum, not a blog, but go ahead and run away if you want.

[Truenorth00]

@roger1818

Him calling it "regional rail" is intentional deceptive marketing. He's not going to change it. It suits him that people see a picture of a train in his marketing and think it'll be running as frequently as the O-Train.

And we need to stop talking about MOOSE servicing existing riders. Potvin has no intention of doing so. He only what's to service those within the 800m circle. And that rent-seeking won't work for most riders today. If his plan ever came to pass, he'd make it as painful as possible for riders not from his 800m catchment to use MOOSE.

It's funny that he insinuates something nefarious in Watson working to put Ottawa's interests first. Imagine that being considered wrong-headed. But I guess if you don't live in Ottawa...